Friday, February 28, 2014

MORE THAN AN INTERESTING READ

The article below gives one some insight into just who the new leader of the US Federal Reserve Bank might be. It's from dailyspeculations.com.

 Does it have any predictable value? Well, that's up to you and time.


 The Chairman of the Fed is known for her wit and wisdom. One thought it useful to memorialize some of her wit on a continuing basis. We hereby inaugurate a compilation of her "Sublime Jokes" so as to gain gravitas from her the same way her colleagues and supporters in the press who always admire her sense of humor.
Please feel free to augment this list with other examples of her hilarious remarks.

Janet Yellen's humor:

But even as she pushed for more aggressive policies to deal with the financial crisis [of 2008] and the economic downturn, Ms. Yellen also displayed an ability to disarm her critics with a sort of gallows humor, even in the darkest days. "In the run-up to Halloween, we have had a witch's brew of news," she said to the laughter of her colleagues, before quickly apologizing for her sarcasm.
2.
As a forecaster, Ms. Yellen was at something of an advantage. She was based in California, where some of the earliest signs of distress appeared. In a lighter moment, she joked that the problems were not just in the collapsing housing market.
"East Bay plastic surgeons and dentists note that patients are deferring elective procedures," she said to laughter, according to a transcript of the meeting on Sept. 16, 2008.
"The Silicon Valley Country Club, with a $250,000 entrance fee and seven- to eight-year waiting list, has seen the number of would-be new members shrink to a mere 13," she said to more laughter.
But she also was looking for clues anywhere she could find them. In June, she told her colleagues about employees at her bank who "had their home equity lines slashed."
"One has deferred a planned home renovation project as a consequence," she said. "If that is happening to them, I can only imagine how hard it must be to get a loan if you have a merely average credit rating."
"Sales of cheap wine are soaring," Yellen reported to the Fed on March 8, a week before Bear Stearns collapsed

Yellen, unlike Greenspan or a pre-2008 Bernanke, is probably the last person you'd hear repeating one of Reagan's favorite jokes: "The nine scariest words in the English language are: 'I'm from the government, and I'm here to help.'
Yellen is humorous. In the recently released transcript of the Dec. 16, 2008, FOMC meeting, she said: "An accounting joke concerning the balance sheets of many financial institutions is now making the rounds, and it summarizes the situation as follows: On the left-hand side, nothing is right; and on the right-hand side, nothing is left."

Charles Pennington adds: 

 This morning I began the process of picking out items of praise from
the link below, but it's lunchtime now so I'll have to adjourn for
awhile.
She's ultrasmart but also ultramethodical
Yellen was not ordinary, even as valedictorians go.
Yellen is inclined to ask probing questions and to be interested in people even as she grapples with abstract ideas.
Yellen
revealed not so much a combative personality as someone prone to get to
the point and to avoid becoming too proud of her own intellect.
wanting to think through problems from every angle and with an open mind.
brilliant and a hard worker,"
"I don't think she ever just got along on brilliance."
Her thorough, skip-no-detail approach will be tested in the years ahead
Arguably no individual will have more influence over financial conditions for American families.
"The Fed is the only game in town,"
For
Yellen, that will mean navigating a difficult course from the moment
she occupies the head chair in the Fed's ornate conference room in
Washington: trying to move the economy toward more solid growth while
also backing the central bank off its stimulative policy of holding
short-term interest rates at zero. This will affect everything from
unemployment to inflation to stock market portfolios.
One of Yellen's challenges will be to defend the notion that the Fed serves all the American people
even Republicans don't doubt she has the résumé for the position.
 Her career path has led her from prominent teaching positions to varied roles in the Federal Reserve System.
Some have called her the best qualified nominee ever.
Yellen will be the first woman to head America's top financial policymaking post.
Although
Yellen has said in the past that she hasn't felt discrimination during
her career, finance remains a male-dominated realm in America. Her
elevation carries both substantive and symbolic importance.
"every time a glass ceiling is broken it sends a signal that government is more inclusive"
Yellen
once accompanied her parents on a transatlantic summer cruise. A
highlight for Yellen, then in high school, had to do with learning about
rocks. A geologist on board, thrilled to meet a young person with a
keen interest in his field, presented her with a trilobite fossil.
She
already had a credible rock collection. But instead of eagerly adding
the fossil..to her personal stash, Yellen loaned it to the biology lab
at her school so that others could learn from it, too.
Exploration was a kind of family trademark during her time growing up
"They had inquiring minds,"
The melting pot of New York City was itself a kind of global microcosm of arts, sciences, and culture…Yellen took it all in.
[family outings] included plays, concerts, or science lectures
Yellen's
youth wasn't all about igneous rocks and high-brow culture…one of
those concerts that they went to featured a young songwriter coming out
of the folk tradition, named Bob Dylan.
Yellen was a "very normal kid." "We would talk for hours by phone" about typical subjects such as boys, clothes, and "who said what to whom."
"the real gift to teenage girls like Janet and me was the way we were treated by our teachers, our parents and our peers." Instead of being beholden to gender stere­otypes, "[w]e were expected to take charge, just as our mothers and grandmothers did when men went off to war."
Yellen was an all-around scholar who, with encouragement from her parents, took an advanced-course track through middle school, allowing her to enter high school as a sophomore and graduate a year ahead of her peers.
Her prowess with language arts propelled her toward the editor in chief role at [the school newspaper]… yet her self-profile revealed her to be fascinated by science and math.
She was fun-loving and showed a ready wit
she said she enjoyed reading philosophy
also seemed to exhibit an unusual degree of discipline.
"She did lots of things, and she did them all really well,"
"What stood out to me was intentionality, purposefulness, a determination not to be better than others but to be the best she could be."
Yellen wasn't one to put on airs
Staff economists remember her eating with them in the bank cafeteria.
But she was motivated to achieve.
An unsigned editorial in The Pilot at the close of her senior year (Yellen believes she wrote it but, 50 years later, can't be sure) urged a do-something outlook that her own life embraced: "Be curious! Wonder why the sky is blue, what fire is, why peace-loving nations feud … but wonder about something!"
headed off to college at Pembroke (then the women's college at Brown University) in Rhode Island. Economics quickly drew her in. "She was totally smitten" after her first course, Grosart says, recalling the excitement Yellen shared when returning home on a break.
Graduating with highest honors led to the opportunity to do doctoral work at Yale University, followed by a rare invitation from Harvard University to start teaching there before she had landed a job anywhere else.
Yellen's career had begun its upward arc.
• • •
In 1977, Yellen met George Akerlof, another rising star in the field of economics. It was essentially love at first seminar.
"We liked each other immediately," Mr. Akerlof writes in an autobiographical sketch. "Not only did our personalities mesh perfectly, but we have also always been in all but perfect agreement about macroeconomics."
The scholar spouses shared an interest in mysteries related to unemployment.
Akerlof's and Yellen's academic lives have been centered around the University of California, Berkeley, where he won a Nobel Prize and she taught for years at the Haas School of Business.
Family interests over the years have included cooking, hiking, tennis, and travel. Yet their dinner table discussions, Yellen acknowledged in 1995, might not be that interesting to an outsider (typically revolving around economics).
The home environment was stimulating enough that Robert Akerlof, their son, chose to enter the same field and now teaches at the University of Warwick in England.
When Mr. Kohn's team of staffers would present economic briefings to the board, Yellen almost invariably seemed to be the one who homed in on the key issue.
"She would find the central point in the briefing, sometimes the central weak point in the briefing. I was often surprised, especially at first," says Kohn, who later held the vice chair role that Yellen would eventually occupy.
It was surprising in part because the other six got to comment or raise questions – starting with Chairman Alan Greenspan – before she, as the newest member, could utter a word.
Kohn's view of Yellen is echoed by Ted Truman,..he recalls similar signs of a sharp intellect.
Yellen's job was to take notes for the whole class, because Professor Tobin wanted the students to be free to listen and discuss. "They were very elegant and careful notes," Truman says, "and they became classics"
• • •
All this may make it sound as if Yellen is a superwoman – someone who crunches numbers about the American economy while wearing a cape. She isn't.
She often prefers to speak from prepared notes rather than spontaneously, which some see as a sign of preparation and precision and others see as too programmed. The best shot one Washington gossip news report could take was to chide her for – horrors! – wearing the same outfit to both her confirmation announcement and her confirmation hearing.
Yet she does draw criticism for where she might lead the Fed.
Her confirmation vote, on Jan. 6, was 56 to 26 – the narrowest margin any Fed nominee has ever been approved by. All the "no" votes were cast by Republicans.

Yellen's history at the Fed shows her to be more pragmatic than ideological. It also suggests she can be tough and persuasive when she wants.

TROUBLE SPREADS

As the trouble in the Ukraine appears far from settled here's an excellent brief history of the area that could prove more volatile than many investors realize.

CRACKS IN THE WORRY WALL?

The wall of worry continues as markets hit new records. There are some cracks here to be certain. The one overwhelming question is when will those cracks become significant. Here's a recap from Minyanville.com.

S&P Pops to a Record High, But Cracks Appear in the Facade



Today's Financial Recap



Stocks made an all-time high Friday, but cracks rapidly appeared in the bullish facade as tensions between Russia and Ukraine heated up
The second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP came in at 2.4%, slightly below the 2.5% consensus. Personal Consumption rose 2.6%, which missed Wall Street's 2.9% estimate.

The February Chicago PMI hit 59.8, well ahead of the 56.4 consensus.

The final February University of Michigan Consumer Confidence reading was 81.6, fractionally better than expected.

January Pending Home sales rose 0.1%, well below expectations for a 1.8% gain. That put a big damper on housing stocks, which have been among the best-performing sectors year-to-date.

S&P 500 futures were down modestly ahead of the GDP report, indicating that investors had somewhat low expectations ahead of today's data deluge. Stocks began rising at the open, even ahead of the better-than-expected Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence numbers.

The S&P 500 hit a recrod intraday high at 1867.92 before dropping to finish at a record closing high of 1859.45, a 0.3% gain.

Aside from general profit-taking, the downward action was spurred on by geopolitics.

New leaders in Ukraine said Russian forces took control of two airports in Crimea, which Russia denied. There are also news reports of Russian troops deploying elsewhere in Ukraine. Additionally, former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who is wanted for mass murder in Ukraine, appeared at a press conference in Russia claiming he is still in power.

However, there were some ugly spots in the action today.

Homebuilders, which have been big outperformers year-to-date, were ugly today as the January Pending Home Sales Report disappointed.

And other risk-on areas of the market such as social media, biotech, emerging markets, and small caps had solid opens before failing hard.

Indicative of the deteriorating mood,Salesforce.com (CRM) reported very strong quarterly earnings numbers after yesterday's close and opened higher this morning before declining 5.8% on the day.

Citigroup (C) announced it was lowering its fourth-quarter and 2013 net income by $235 million following the discovery of fraudulent dealings in a Mexican subsidiary.

Bitcoin was also in the spotlight after the Mt. Gox exchange announced that it lost 750,000 Bitcoins valued at over $400 million. Later in the day, a customer proposed a class-action lawsuit in a Chicago federal court.



Tomorrow's Financial Outlook



The data storm will continue on Monday, with Personal Income and Spending, IXM Index, Construction Spending, and Auto Sales numbers all on the way.

Additionally, traders will be watching overseas markets to see if they follow the downturn in US stocks, and to gauge the potential impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

There will be some companies reporting earnings -- URS (URS) and Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS) among them -- but none are likely to move the market.


Minyanville.com

HOW MUCH IS THE BEEF?




It's probably a good time to become a vegetarian--maybe.

California got some much-needed rain this weekend, but water supplies given the lower levels of Sierra snow melt forecast have left the Golden Bear state's farm rich Central Valley thirsting for water-- as in irrigation to nourish crops. The area is noted for its veggie growing and grass-fed livestock.

Just a year ago the great Midwestern drought forced up feeds prices and ranchers sold much their herd early because of the higher grains prices caused by the drought. Now, however, grain supplies are plentiful causing feed prices to come down.  So it's become another case of what goes around.

Government officials say beef prices were up 2% in 2013 and are predicted to finish this year up 3% or 4%. In January, according to the USDA, US retail beef prices reached an all-time high of $5.044 a pound. Ranchers aren't stupid. Lower feed prices and higher beef prices mean they are holding onto their herds longer this year, fattening them more before rushing off to market. And that crimps an already short supply of cattle on the market.

The situation in the hog market isn't much brighter. Just this week US lean-hog future contracts hit their highest since late 2011. So beef and bacon and certain veggies, look for all three to put a pinch in your purse this year.

If all or any of this sounds like some loss of purchasing power to your food budget, fret not. You can rest comfortably knowing your trusty elected officials, hedonics aside, will find a way to discount it.

Thursday, February 27, 2014

MARY JANE

No, we're not talking about the hit cable television show starring Gabrielle Union,"Being Mary Jane," that just finished its freshman season.

We're talking your next investment triumph, a possible four bagger, marijuana, the legal kind.

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/biotech-pharma/articles/Marijuana-Will-Be-the-Single-Best/2/27/2014/id/53944?camp=newsletter&medium=email&from=recapemail


DON'T LOOK NOW

Don't look now, but disgruntlement is becoming more bullish. And it isn't just in Japan. Nor will you find it on any of those fancy technical charts.

This is a development the public in general and investors in particular need to keep track of; it's one of those pay-attention-or-pay-the-price problems.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304610404579403492918900378?mod=WSJWorld__LEFTTopStories&mg=reno64-wsj

THE JANET EFFECT


Here's more on the Fed's new leader and her outlook.

Live blog and video of Janet Yellen’s testimony before a Senate panel

February 27, 2014, 9:53 AM

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen will be heading to the Senate Banking Committee Thursday. Like recent economic data, her previously scheduled appearance was cancelled due to snow. Follow along as MarketWatch’s Greg Robb live blogs her testimony.
  • Yellen echoes comments made earlier this week by Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo that there are a “few” areas where asset valuations appear stretched.
    She offered the price of farmland as her only example.
    In a speech on Tuesday, Tarullo mentioned farmland, but also added  ”the equity prices of some small technology firms” as an area of concern.

  • Yellen added a little bit more to her comments on the weather and the data. She said it would take a “significant change” in the outlook for the Fed to pull back from its gradual reduction in monthly asset purchases.
    The Fed just need to get a “handle” on how much of the disappointing data stems from the cold winter, she said.
  • More signs that Yellen is open to moving away from having a specific unemployment rate threshold for the first rate hike.
    When the unemployment rate was high, it was useful to have a 6.5% threshold because it meant that the Fed would not hike rates, Yellen said.
    But as the unemployment rate falls below that threshold, the Fed will need to look more broadly to decide when the labor market is healthy enough for the Fed to tighten.
    “Of course, the unemployment rate is not a sufficient statistic to measure the health of the labor market,”  Yellen said.
    She noted the high level of long-term unemployed.
    “As we go to a fuller consideration of how the labor market is performing, we need to take all of those things into account,” she added.
    The unemployment rate hit 6.6% in January.

  • Yellen urges Congress to “do no harm” the economy with fiscal policy.
  • So far, questions from the Senate panel have been low-key and of the softball variety. 
  • “In the weeks and months ahead, my colleagues and I will be attentive to signals that indicate whether the recovery is progressing in line with our earlier expectations,” Yellen said.
    By saying “months ahead” it looks like Yellen is pointing past the next Fed policy meeting on March 18-19.




AROUND THE WEB

History may not always repeat itself, but failure to pay attention is a fool's errand. Here's worthwhile recent blurb from http://dailyspeculations.com/.



 It is time honored policy for governments to run up huge debt, then via inflation to pay back that debt in pennies to the dollar or not at all. The most extreme example would be Wiemar republic in the 20s, but there are devaluations all the time, witness Argentina. It is an easy and quiet destruction of wealth of the citizenry by their government. Keynes wrote about it. Though eventually it will work in the US, there must be frustration it is taking so long here. There must be other forces at work holding up the dollar I would call these the positive affects, like the production, innovation, demand for US currency for trade, a slowing of credit growth (second order affect). Amazingly for the time being these forces counter-act a destructive currency policy and there is a stand-off.

Stefan Jovanovich writes:

I think anonymous' point needs further support. Governments have not, in fact, "paid back" debt using inflated currencies. That is one of Keynes' historical fantasies. The debt was simply defaulted. After the new currency was refloated, some of the former debtholders (but never all or even a majority) are lucky/influential enough to be "repaid" by having their old debt instruments swapped for new IOUs using the new "sound" currency; but actual payments that extinguish the debt are never made for the simple reason that the government had no reserves in the old currency and no political ability to make one grand final payment in full. This may seem like a distinction without a difference, but it is not. Default allows the governments to wipe out all the other promises made that were not secured by indentures (pensions, social service payments, subsidies) in the name of "reform". If those obligations had, in fact, been "paid back" in the inflated legal tender, the claimants would at least have gotten old "dollars" that were worth new pennies; what, in fact, happens is that they get nothing.
The rise of the National Socialists can be directly tied to the fact that the currency reform after the hyperinflation left all the old Bismarck safety net promises in default. Hitler's most successful campaign promise was that he would restore those vanished pensions at full value (one can find parallels with the American Progressives' promise throughout the last third of the 19th century and all the times thereafter to assure farmers that they would receive "par" for their crop payments. The just-passed farm bill is a legacy of that toxic doctrine of equalism.)

HOUSEHOLD SPENDING

Here is an interesting read about how American households spend their money that's worth a look.

It turns out there's not much difference between the haves and the have nots
http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/02/great-graphic-disparity-in-wealth-and.html

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

HELMET TIME

Since 1987 when we first got a taste of "excessive exuberance" king, Sir Alan, to the recent departure of Big Ben, the Helicopter Commander, economic policy at the Federal Reserve has been a treasure trove of material for stand-up comedians.

So the question arises: What can investors look for in the future staring down the barrel of this latest QE-driven big bull market? Though we didn't coin the term, but it's probably appropriate--the Janet effect--as paper assets continue to do well despite climbing the noted wall of ugliness.


Several years ago just before the Rodney King-inspired LA riots broke out, a friend and I went out jogging after work for our usual four mile run. As we headed back into the building ( We had no idea what was happening just a few miles away.), one of the evening janitors stopped us in the deserted hallway with a chuckle and: " It's gonna be helmet time tonight."

And sooner or later it's gonna be helmet time for this market.


Tuesday, February 25, 2014

CLUELESS

Lots of folks believe the Federal Reserve people haven't got a clue. Even the most perfunctory study of the Fed's history would pretty much substantiate that. It's one of those facts that hit you straight between your financial goal posts. 

Further evidence comes from the recently released 2008 Fed minutes. Trust these guys and gals at your own peril. 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-indicators-to-help-spot-the-next-crisis-2014-02-21

----

Monday, February 24, 2014

SCAMS BY ANY OTHER NAME

Scams are still scams, high tech, low tech, central bank, Wall Street or otherwise.

Look no further than your: "We're from the government and we're here to help you." We'd use the term succor, but that most likely would get us in trouble with the protection police. With the kind of protection we refer to here in the listed link, given a choice, most of us would say: "Protection? We don't need no stinking protection."
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/2/22/why-the-government-wants-to-shortchange-american-seniors.html


Saturday, February 22, 2014

WEATHER

Whether your pocketbook will weather the Western drought that is hitting central California particularly hard is the question.

Much of California cattle is grass fed. The area grows large amounts of pecans, nuts, lettuce and other veggies. See the recent issue of Barron's and here's a link to another reference:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-farm-drought-crisis-deepens-2014-02-22

Friday, February 21, 2014

FRESH AIR

Every once in a while a bit of fresh air blows in from some unexpected source. Here's one that could have serious ramifications should it become fact. Like the old saying: prayer sometimes gets answered. 

Either way it's the first of what could be a volley across the political bows of politicians across America.

Plan to divide California into 6 states gets closer to vote


A prominent Silicon Valley investor’s proposal to split California into six separate states has moved one step closer to getting on a ballot for vote.
The state has given venture capitalist Tim Draper the green light to begin collecting signatures for a petition to break apart the state. Draper, who describes California as too big to manage and essentially ungovernable, now has until July 18 to collect 807,615 signatures for a ballot initiative that could reach voters by November 2016.
Draper, whose bets on Skype and Hotmail have made him a billionaire, says “vast parts of our state are poorly served by a representative government,” according to his initiative.
“It is more and more difficult for Sacramento to keep up with the social issues from the various regions of California,” Draper told ABC News. “With six Californias, people will be closer to their state governments, and states can get a refresh.”
His proposal calls for one of the states to be called Silicon Valley, which would include San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa and San Francisco counties, as well as San Benito, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties.
The other states he’s proposing are Northern California, Southern California, Central California, Western California and Jefferson.
Proposals have surfaced over the years over whether the state should be split up.
“It’s certainly fun to talk about,” Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at California State University, Los Angeles, told the Associated Press. However,“its prospects are nil.”
Even if the measure passes, Congress, under the U.S. Constitution, would have final say on six states. Six individual states would give California 12 Senate seats.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

THE TREND IS SUPPOSED TO BE

The tend is supposed to be one's friend, at least in the market.

But much depends on who's setting the trend. A recent report from the left-leaning think tank, the Brooking Institute, about the so-called growing inequality gap between the rich and the poor ain't "so profound or uniform."

With a smidgen of media honesty the same could be said for one of the other big boondoggles of our time, global warming.
http://m.thefiscaltimes.com/fiscaltimes/#!/entry/brookings-study-downplays-income-inequality-gap,530663c9025312186cd40fc5

AT IT AGAIN

Well, we're at it again. Back from the economic wilderness, making some decent gains along the way managing our own accounts. Our format will most likely be a little simpler, briefer this time. We hope some of you will join us.