Thursday, August 2, 2012

What's In Another QE?

The QEs have had it.

Trusting souls want to believe Bernanke stands at the ready, rescue button in hand. That's an old, old movie.  The monetary wiggle string is mostly all out. Another round of QEs could further spike raw material prices, picking more money from consumer pockets, something rebounding energy costs is already doing.


Economic growth prospects in most developed areas are anemic; shortfalls in corporate earnings and declining retail sales are but a few of the current economic downers facing investors. A case in point, high-end retailer Coach shareholders witnessed a 17%  decline in its stock price recently. Or Tiffany's shares, down nearly 5% since late last month.


On the other side of the retail trade is Walmart. Its shares are up dramatically in just the last two months, trading at 73 and change, just off its 52-week high. Some refer to this as slum retailing as folks pinched for capital downsize their spending seeking more bang for their buck.


And forget about jobs. Most folks have. The prospect of higher taxes beginning next year and fewer incentives to invest sound more and more like a super-sized horse-meat sandwich--unappealing, to put it kindly. Where is Mayor Bloomberg when you need him?  Super-sized soft drinks maybe persona non in high places, but BS as always rides free.


That the trusty Fed stands ready is more whistling past the bone yard.  Bond dealers and some big-time investors are suggesting the US Treasury float short-term paper with negatives yields. That should palliate the worries of fixed-income investors. QEs are DOA, just ask the smart money. 


Markets may climb the proverbial worry-wall from time to time.  But short of defaults and higher inflation, few have discovered the magic formula for cheating the piper.