RALLY ARTIFICIAL?
http://www.moneynews.com/newswidget/El-Erian-Fed-market-central-banks/2013/03/29/id/496934?promo_code=10907-1&utm_source=10907Financial_Content_Network&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1
NANNY STATE A PENNY PER OUNCE
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324789504578380271797966326.html?mod=opinion_newsreel
JAPANESE INFLATION
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/31/us-economy-global-weekahead-idUSBRE92U07920130331
ARRESTED
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/31/egypt-orders-arrest-tv-satirist
SMALL BUSINESSES MAY FURTHER DAMAGE EU
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/28/us-italy-spain-banks-idUSBRE92R03K20130328
KOREAN SITUATION AND THE MARKETS
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/31/commodity-stock-markets-assess-risk-of-korean-war?ref=hp&t=forex&page=2
HOLD THAT TAX
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/31/us-brazil-economy-cartax-idUSBRE92U00N20130331
WHAT'S IN YOUR WALLET?
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/03/28/what-should-and-what-shouldnt-be-in-your-wallet/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-03-31&utm_medium=email
GOOD ADVICE
http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/strategic-thinking/201303/why-we-ignore-good-advice
Sunday, March 31, 2013
HIGH STAKES
If you track hydrocarbons you'll usually find the trail leads to more than just some information about oil and gas reserves.
Forget the Bourne Identity or Bond. Truth is far more intriguing than fiction.
US special forces have been training Syrian rebels for some time now. That's not news. What is news is the US government's sudden efforts to get the story out and to make it look as if it's a leak.
Unlike some of its neighbors Syria is not landlocked, a key point. This is about more than helping to remove a government regime viewed as unfriendly to the West. This is about gas, lots of it and who controls it.
Recall the story involving Attorney General Eric Holder and those weapons that allegedly found their way into the wrong hands, agents of Mexico's infamous drug cartel. Well, Syria holds a similar time bomb for the administration: Just who are the American forces in Syria training, true independents or jihadist who have infiltrated the movement?
As Jen Alic for Oilprice.com notes, reports from the area state the Free Syrian Army, the people the US is supposedly training, have been heavily infiltrated by jihadists. Officials in Washington claim American special forces there are training Jordanians in Jordan, not members of the Free Syrian Army.
Last week the Associated Press, citing several un-named officials, began "leaking" the story. Whoever the US is training, Jordanians or otherwise, reports say that information is being passed across the border to Syrians where the the fighting between the Free Syrian Army and government forces rages. CIA operatives hover nearby.
Enter Ghassan Hitto, a former resident of Murphy, Texas, who was born in Damascus, United Arab Republic (now Syria) in 1963 and migrated to the US in 1980. Educated here Hitto holds degrees in mathematics and computer science, he worked in technology and was one of the founding members after 911 of the Muslim Legal Fund of America to give legal aid to Muslims. He is Kurdish.
Late last year he suddenly moved to Turkey and got involved with the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. In mid-March he was elected prime minister of an interim government in a split election that was boycotted by some members of the Coalition, including some of the Free Syrian Army, one of the major groups aligned against Assad's troops.
The truth is the Eastern Mediterranean is gas rich, a fact of more than passing interest to any number of players, not the least of which include: Russia, Europe, Turkey and the US. Hitto is the US's man in waiting. Some say he's also Turkey's choice.
The US itself is a surrogate man in waiting. A lot remains at stake here. More than many would imagine. Different countries are backing the various so-called freedom fighters for different reasons.
Cyprus is just a tiny part of a story that could easily rival most spy thrillers. Noble, a Houston-based oil company, is set soon to start drilling for gas in a block in the Mediterranean owned by Cyprus. They're looking for oil and gas, not something endearing them to Turkey.
Cyprus is two-thirds controlled by Greek-Cypriates, the other by those with ethnic Turkish ties. Turkey just severed an agreement with Italian oil company, Eni, presumably because the Italian firm recently started operations off the Cyprus coast.
When in 2004 the tiny island was accepted into the EU it was only the Greek-Cypriot two-thirds, the Greek-Cypriot Republic of Cyprus, that joined the union. Turkey only recognizes the northern third.
Turkey's press release about its actions against Eni cited concerns about Cyprus' Turkish population getting its fair share of the possible proceeds coming from Cyprus-owned Mediterranean oil and gas blocks.
The timing of the announcement, many observers believe, coming just days ahead of scheduled biddings for more Cyprus oil and gas licenses, sends a subtle message: drill offshore in Cyprus, miss out in Turkey.
Russia now supplies Europe with a major portion of it natural gas. New supplies from the eastern Mediterranean, depending on who controls them, could threaten that hold. Here are some links about what's at stake from a report way before the Cyprus story hit the international media.
As we said big players, high stakes and lots of intrigue.
http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/02/08/battle-for-syria/f6t6
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Recent-Oil-Discovery-off-Lebanese-Coast-Draws-Naval-Powers-to-East-Med.html
Forget the Bourne Identity or Bond. Truth is far more intriguing than fiction.
US special forces have been training Syrian rebels for some time now. That's not news. What is news is the US government's sudden efforts to get the story out and to make it look as if it's a leak.
Unlike some of its neighbors Syria is not landlocked, a key point. This is about more than helping to remove a government regime viewed as unfriendly to the West. This is about gas, lots of it and who controls it.
Recall the story involving Attorney General Eric Holder and those weapons that allegedly found their way into the wrong hands, agents of Mexico's infamous drug cartel. Well, Syria holds a similar time bomb for the administration: Just who are the American forces in Syria training, true independents or jihadist who have infiltrated the movement?
As Jen Alic for Oilprice.com notes, reports from the area state the Free Syrian Army, the people the US is supposedly training, have been heavily infiltrated by jihadists. Officials in Washington claim American special forces there are training Jordanians in Jordan, not members of the Free Syrian Army.
Last week the Associated Press, citing several un-named officials, began "leaking" the story. Whoever the US is training, Jordanians or otherwise, reports say that information is being passed across the border to Syrians where the the fighting between the Free Syrian Army and government forces rages. CIA operatives hover nearby.
Enter Ghassan Hitto, a former resident of Murphy, Texas, who was born in Damascus, United Arab Republic (now Syria) in 1963 and migrated to the US in 1980. Educated here Hitto holds degrees in mathematics and computer science, he worked in technology and was one of the founding members after 911 of the Muslim Legal Fund of America to give legal aid to Muslims. He is Kurdish.
Late last year he suddenly moved to Turkey and got involved with the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. In mid-March he was elected prime minister of an interim government in a split election that was boycotted by some members of the Coalition, including some of the Free Syrian Army, one of the major groups aligned against Assad's troops.
The truth is the Eastern Mediterranean is gas rich, a fact of more than passing interest to any number of players, not the least of which include: Russia, Europe, Turkey and the US. Hitto is the US's man in waiting. Some say he's also Turkey's choice.
The US itself is a surrogate man in waiting. A lot remains at stake here. More than many would imagine. Different countries are backing the various so-called freedom fighters for different reasons.
Cyprus is just a tiny part of a story that could easily rival most spy thrillers. Noble, a Houston-based oil company, is set soon to start drilling for gas in a block in the Mediterranean owned by Cyprus. They're looking for oil and gas, not something endearing them to Turkey.
Cyprus is two-thirds controlled by Greek-Cypriates, the other by those with ethnic Turkish ties. Turkey just severed an agreement with Italian oil company, Eni, presumably because the Italian firm recently started operations off the Cyprus coast.
When in 2004 the tiny island was accepted into the EU it was only the Greek-Cypriot two-thirds, the Greek-Cypriot Republic of Cyprus, that joined the union. Turkey only recognizes the northern third.
Turkey's press release about its actions against Eni cited concerns about Cyprus' Turkish population getting its fair share of the possible proceeds coming from Cyprus-owned Mediterranean oil and gas blocks.
The timing of the announcement, many observers believe, coming just days ahead of scheduled biddings for more Cyprus oil and gas licenses, sends a subtle message: drill offshore in Cyprus, miss out in Turkey.
Russia now supplies Europe with a major portion of it natural gas. New supplies from the eastern Mediterranean, depending on who controls them, could threaten that hold. Here are some links about what's at stake from a report way before the Cyprus story hit the international media.
As we said big players, high stakes and lots of intrigue.
http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/02/08/battle-for-syria/f6t6
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Recent-Oil-Discovery-off-Lebanese-Coast-Draws-Naval-Powers-to-East-Med.html
Friday, March 29, 2013
WEEKEND READS
ONCE THE SAFEST
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/money-market-funds-are-a-most-dangerous-investment-2013-03-29?pagenumber=2
BEWARE OF THE HUNGARIAN FORINT
http://www.bondvigilantes.com/
CONGRESS EXPORTING MORE IGNORANCE
http://cafehayek.com/
KNOW YOUR FRIENDLY DENTIST
http://www.chron.com/news/us/article/HIV-test-urged-for-7-000-Oklahoma-dental-patients-4392561.php
OIL,STEEL, RAIL AND AYN RAND
http://blogs.oilandgasinvestor.com/
JINGOISM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/29/us-korea-north-idUSBRE92R13R20130329
MUCH NEEDED HARD TO DIGEST
We came across a French poll earlier this year that showed 80% of the people polled believed their country was bankrupt.
Well, here's France's new president, Francois Hollande, a Socialist many in European media gloated over when he won, calling for no new taxes, protecting defense spending, cutting state spending and red tape for businesses.
Mr. Obama and Mr. Krugman, are you paying attention?
French unemployment is in double-digit land and the spread premium between German and French 10-year government bonds widened again recently, up 16 basis points since last December.
More incentives for those drawing unemployment to return to work, unbelievable coming from a socialist politician.
But the real irony is many of these changes are mere extensions of those started by his free-market talking predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy.
According to polls Hollande is the most unpopular French president in 30 years.
One thing remains clear. Such changes, if they get implemented, would have digested a lot smoother had they been done a lot earlier.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/hollande-presses-french-to-embrace-social-revamp-to-spur-growth.html
Well, here's France's new president, Francois Hollande, a Socialist many in European media gloated over when he won, calling for no new taxes, protecting defense spending, cutting state spending and red tape for businesses.
Mr. Obama and Mr. Krugman, are you paying attention?
French unemployment is in double-digit land and the spread premium between German and French 10-year government bonds widened again recently, up 16 basis points since last December.
More incentives for those drawing unemployment to return to work, unbelievable coming from a socialist politician.
But the real irony is many of these changes are mere extensions of those started by his free-market talking predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy.
According to polls Hollande is the most unpopular French president in 30 years.
One thing remains clear. Such changes, if they get implemented, would have digested a lot smoother had they been done a lot earlier.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/hollande-presses-french-to-embrace-social-revamp-to-spur-growth.html
BEWARE OF OCTOPI ON PEDS
It's that time of year again, tax time.
Since the market is closed Good Friday and markets in Europe will be off Monday, maybe a little levity in the face of all the turmoil going on might lighten things up a bit. We'll see.
Nearly a decade ago when my retired partner and I ran a small Newport Beach investment boutique for private clients, we ran into a lot of AMT, the alternative investment tax. In short, it's one of Congress' most clucked-headed, dumbest ideas. And that covers some serious ground.
And that's where the levity comes in. Sometimes you have to just laugh at the stupidity of these folks, it's magnitude. We spent a lot of keyboard time writing about it then, trying to inform and warn. It's like an octopus on performance enhancing drugs whose tentacles keep getting longer every year.
Yet there's something about even the mildly complex that turns many people off. That is, until it hits their wallet and they have to tell their significant other.
We'll spare you the angry-provoking details. It's another one of those to-get-the-few-you-concoct-an idiotic-complex tax that eventually gets the innocent and the many and zero of the few.
So with that introduction, happy tax time to all and here is a link for your reading pleasure.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/03/28/10-Tax-Laws-That-Hurt-the-Economy-Most.aspx#page1
Since the market is closed Good Friday and markets in Europe will be off Monday, maybe a little levity in the face of all the turmoil going on might lighten things up a bit. We'll see.
Nearly a decade ago when my retired partner and I ran a small Newport Beach investment boutique for private clients, we ran into a lot of AMT, the alternative investment tax. In short, it's one of Congress' most clucked-headed, dumbest ideas. And that covers some serious ground.
And that's where the levity comes in. Sometimes you have to just laugh at the stupidity of these folks, it's magnitude. We spent a lot of keyboard time writing about it then, trying to inform and warn. It's like an octopus on performance enhancing drugs whose tentacles keep getting longer every year.
Yet there's something about even the mildly complex that turns many people off. That is, until it hits their wallet and they have to tell their significant other.
We'll spare you the angry-provoking details. It's another one of those to-get-the-few-you-concoct-an idiotic-complex tax that eventually gets the innocent and the many and zero of the few.
So with that introduction, happy tax time to all and here is a link for your reading pleasure.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/03/28/10-Tax-Laws-That-Hurt-the-Economy-Most.aspx#page1
Thursday, March 28, 2013
GOOD FRIDAY READS
Big Brother
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/28/aclu-stingray-surveillance-police-cellphones
Later Or Sooner
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/28/default-only-answer-to-cyprus-crisis-mark-mobius/
US Migration
http://news.investors.com/032813-649561-americans-are-migrating-to-more-free-republican-states.aspx?ref=HPLNews
Buy Or Lease
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/03/27/car-buy-lease-readers-advice/
DOES IT MATTER?
Analogies can be dangerous.
Comparing one thing to another can often leave room for criticism.
In this case, however, when it comes to trusting bureaucrats to look after your welfare and that of greater society, the rewards far outweigh the risks.
We all know that so-called watchdogs in the US failed to keep their eyes on the hen house in more than one bubble since 2000. The too big to fail, for example, in the view of many has simply led to fewer, even bigger too big to fail financial institutions.
If you read the following story you'll learn, if you don't already know, that such events given the recent Cyprus turmoil, aren't unique to the US. Boys might be boys as the old saying goes. But so are bureaucrats.
In the late 1990s the UK faced a banking crisis. Confidence waned and a new government watchdog, the FSA, was established to prevent it from happening again. The rest, as by now, you should already know.
Initials get changed, a few chairs shuffled. But business as usual prevails.
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/27/fsa-fails-to-reach-16th-birthday-as-crisis-spoils?ref=hp
Comparing one thing to another can often leave room for criticism.
In this case, however, when it comes to trusting bureaucrats to look after your welfare and that of greater society, the rewards far outweigh the risks.
We all know that so-called watchdogs in the US failed to keep their eyes on the hen house in more than one bubble since 2000. The too big to fail, for example, in the view of many has simply led to fewer, even bigger too big to fail financial institutions.
If you read the following story you'll learn, if you don't already know, that such events given the recent Cyprus turmoil, aren't unique to the US. Boys might be boys as the old saying goes. But so are bureaucrats.
In the late 1990s the UK faced a banking crisis. Confidence waned and a new government watchdog, the FSA, was established to prevent it from happening again. The rest, as by now, you should already know.
Initials get changed, a few chairs shuffled. But business as usual prevails.
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/27/fsa-fails-to-reach-16th-birthday-as-crisis-spoils?ref=hp
THURSDAY READS
Oil Demand Drying Up?
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2013/03/27/citi-to-wall-street-oil-demand-may-peak-before-decade-is-over/
So Much For More Choices
http://www.futurity.org/society-culture/more-choices-lead-to-bigger-gambles/
Asian Sell Off
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100598570?__source=stocktracker&par=stocktracker
Gold Worst Quarter
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/gold-headed-for-worst-quarterly-run-since-2001-amid-weak-demand.html
Gloom And Doom
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/27/marc-faber-aka-dr-doom-says-theres-nowhere-to-hide-from-bubblegeddon-not-even-gold/
Actuaries Spread More Gloom
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/health-exchange/2013/03/27/actuaries-say-individual-plan-claims-will-rise-32-under-obamacare/
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
LAND OF THE NEARSIGHTED
A long weekend awaits.
Traders traditionally don't like to go into three day weekends with positions that could turn vulnerable quickly.
Given all the turmoil in Europe and other spots, we could see further weakness into Thursday since the market will observe Good Friday. A recent survey in France revealed 80% believe their country is bankrupt. Are they realists or just slow learners?
At the same time the trouble warrants some snooping as Euro shares take a hit. If you buy into the US recovery story, you might want to snoop out some of Europe's better multinationals. They're out there.
Money always leaves the overbought. Buy what's cheap. If you don't know what's cheap, find out.
If you think deflation is the problem, then the safer bet favors utilities and drug stocks, things people depend on and use like booze and tobacco and sex.
If you like to buy the out-of-favor, downtrodden, snoop around cyclicals and mining companies particularly gold mining shares. Some even offer decent payouts like Newmont.
We know gold is under pressure, hedge fund selling, prospects of stronger dollar and higher interest rates. A key question here is when does the Fed's QE end, this year or early next. Big Ben surely wants to put it to bed for his legacy before he ponies back to the College of New Jersey, otherwise known as Woodrow Wilson U.
Rather than hide from the turmoil embrace it. It is what it is. Chaos creates opportunity. As long as you know your tolerance level, have done your homework and you understand the risks, you can still get jarred. But you're not flying blindly.
Leave that for the politicians and the bureaucrats. If there were just put options on those boys and gals, we could all get George-Soros rich.
Remember cyclops rule in the land of the nearsighted.
SO MUCH FOR ACCURACY
To use the following linked study's own words: The chart’s data were taken from a 50,000-loan sample of Freddie Mac-backed fully amortizing 30-year fixed-rate single-family mortgages that were originated in 2011.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/27/new-freddie-mac-data-show-the-difficulty-in-identifying-mortgage-risks/
These were not those subprime honeys done way back in 2005 or so. These were fixed-rate loans that usually require much more diligence on the borrower to meet more stringent standards of the lender.
It shouldn't pump up your confidence in bureaucrats. What this should tell you is these folks have a hard time getting it right even under supposedly the best of conditions.
WEDNESDAY READS
IF YOU USE FACEBOOK OR LINKEDIN
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Facebook-Vs-LinkedIn-Why-Both-Are/3/26/2013/id/48919?page=full
HOW REAL IS THE REAL ESTATE RECOVERY?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-decline-in-february-2013-03-27
HOW LOW CAN EURO GO?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/27/us-markets-forex-idUSBRE92E11120130327
SOUND LIKE SOUND POLICY TO YOU?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-27/fannie-mae-regulator-sets-no-doc-modifications-to-help-borrowers.html
ANOTHER VIEW ON RECOVERY
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/26/five-ways-deflation-has-already-taken-hold-in-us?ref=hp
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
MISBEGOTTEN
Some might call it Expansion Hunger.
Others: Be careful what you wish for. A lot people recognize it for what it really is, just broke. In this case, politically bankrupt.
The trouble with truth it has little traction. It's an unwanted guest, not welcome. Take a gander at Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh for the real lowdown: "The lie of the pipe dream is what gives life to the whole misbegotten mad lot of us, drunk or sober."
O'Neill's classic is about murder. Murder takes many forms. Kill the fantasies of tomorrow and what is one left with. Just pipe dreams.
And that's what many believe how Euroland will eventually end up, a misbegotten, bumbled, fumbled pipe dream.
http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-is-politically-bankrupt-2013-3
TIME IN ALL THINGS
Since the start of the year, notwithstanding an anemic 3% February correction, it's been pretty much up, up and away.
For weeks now since the DJIA broke into new territory focus shifted to the S&P 500. When would the famous index join its brethren? It's as they say a when not an if.
A broader, much more intriguing question is, then what? More new, greater heights or will it prove in a month or so to be the beginning of a meaningful correction?
We all know about worry-walls. We also know about head-in-the-sand types.And one could postulate we all know them by another monicker, Democrats and Republicans.
A lot of previous bears lately have suddenly got that old time religion. They've jumped on the bull market bandwagon. Could this be a contrarian sign? Or did they get it right?
All things in their time.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-market-timing-dead-2013-03-26?link=MW_story_investinginsight
For weeks now since the DJIA broke into new territory focus shifted to the S&P 500. When would the famous index join its brethren? It's as they say a when not an if.
A broader, much more intriguing question is, then what? More new, greater heights or will it prove in a month or so to be the beginning of a meaningful correction?
We all know about worry-walls. We also know about head-in-the-sand types.And one could postulate we all know them by another monicker, Democrats and Republicans.
A lot of previous bears lately have suddenly got that old time religion. They've jumped on the bull market bandwagon. Could this be a contrarian sign? Or did they get it right?
All things in their time.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-market-timing-dead-2013-03-26?link=MW_story_investinginsight
MORE EXPECTED THAN DIABOLICAL
A story today on Zero Hedge raises the question is the plan of Euro politicians to force depositors to spend their money to help revive the sick economy.
If it is it wouldn't be the first time. In fact, doing so is one of the basic tenets of Keynesian economics. Saving beyond planned investments, excessive saving in the Keynesian view, is a major problem. It can cause recession, even depression.
One of the often-quoted points US bulls make for a future equity run-up is all that cash sitting in low-yielding checking and saving accounts. Toss that in with overflowing corporate coffers and the buy back scene.
Keynes believed that savings don't necessarily decline with falling interest rates.
Never under estimate political zeal.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-26/diabolical-master-plan-behind-crushing-europes-depositors
If it is it wouldn't be the first time. In fact, doing so is one of the basic tenets of Keynesian economics. Saving beyond planned investments, excessive saving in the Keynesian view, is a major problem. It can cause recession, even depression.
One of the often-quoted points US bulls make for a future equity run-up is all that cash sitting in low-yielding checking and saving accounts. Toss that in with overflowing corporate coffers and the buy back scene.
Keynes believed that savings don't necessarily decline with falling interest rates.
Never under estimate political zeal.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-26/diabolical-master-plan-behind-crushing-europes-depositors
TUESDAY READS
CONTRARIAN SIGN?
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/03/25/bullish-crowd-attracts-yet-another-member/
CYPRUS BAILOUT FAILS TO BOOST S&P 500 TO RECORD
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2013-03/26/c_132262736.htm
BOND PRICES UP
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/26/markets-usa-bonds-idUSL2N0CI13320130326
CANADIAN STOCKS GOLD LOWER
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/26/markets-canada-stocks-idUSL2N0CI0WO20130326
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/03/25/bullish-crowd-attracts-yet-another-member/
CYPRUS BAILOUT FAILS TO BOOST S&P 500 TO RECORD
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2013-03/26/c_132262736.htm
BOND PRICES UP
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/26/markets-usa-bonds-idUSL2N0CI13320130326
CANADIAN STOCKS GOLD LOWER
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/26/markets-canada-stocks-idUSL2N0CI0WO20130326
Monday, March 25, 2013
OPPORTUNITY RISK
Dignity is over-rated.
Webster defines dignity as "the quality of being worthy, honored or esteemed."
Right off if that esteemed part don't get you, you probably never thought about being a stand-up comic. Here's a little test: Try being funny and holding on to your dignity at the same time.
MONDAY READS
MSM LIES
We have written long and often about the MSN and their penchant, to use a kinder, gentler depiction, for telling it their way. This is hardly new. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/03/the-new-york-times-caught-lying.php
ALL THE NEWS THAT'S FIT TO SPIN
Here's just one more example. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/03/tom-lipscomb-how-do-you-know-theyll-print-it.php
BIG BANKS ANOTHER VIEW
http://www.americanbanker.com/bankthink/are-cries-to-break-up-big-banks-about-reform-or-revenge-1057631-1.html?zkPrintable=1&nopagination=1
CYPRUS PRESIDENT MAY RESIGN
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/24/eurozone-cyprus-anastasiades-idUSL5N0CG1132013032
GOLD SHORTAGE
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-24/another-gold-shortage-abn-halt-physical-gold-delivery
DEAL REACHED
http://www.businessinsider.com/sunday-night-cyprus-bailout-negotiations-2013-3
IT'S ABOUT TIME
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/03/22/you-may-be-kissing-traditional-cable-goodbye/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-03-24&utm_medium=email
We have written long and often about the MSN and their penchant, to use a kinder, gentler depiction, for telling it their way. This is hardly new. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/03/the-new-york-times-caught-lying.php
ALL THE NEWS THAT'S FIT TO SPIN
Here's just one more example. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/03/tom-lipscomb-how-do-you-know-theyll-print-it.php
BIG BANKS ANOTHER VIEW
http://www.americanbanker.com/bankthink/are-cries-to-break-up-big-banks-about-reform-or-revenge-1057631-1.html?zkPrintable=1&nopagination=1
CYPRUS PRESIDENT MAY RESIGN
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/24/eurozone-cyprus-anastasiades-idUSL5N0CG1132013032
GOLD SHORTAGE
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-24/another-gold-shortage-abn-halt-physical-gold-delivery
DEAL REACHED
http://www.businessinsider.com/sunday-night-cyprus-bailout-negotiations-2013-3
IT'S ABOUT TIME
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/03/22/you-may-be-kissing-traditional-cable-goodbye/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-03-24&utm_medium=email
Saturday, March 23, 2013
OUTSIDE THE US DOLLAR
We've all heard about the lessor of two evils.
Well, with the US dollar it's more like the lessor of several evils. The US dollar index has chalked up a nice gain so far in 2013, rising more than three percent, but hardly all on it's own merits.
It's had a little help from its friends, the yen, the pound and the euro. All three of these currencies face some kind of turmoil, economic or political or both.
If you snooze you lose. And that's what politicians in the European Union have been doing for a while now. From the Cyprus crisis to Italian election uncertainties to high unemployment and heavy debt-plagued members, Euroland is looking more and more like an amusement park than a stable, confidence-instilling government.
Much of this trouble makes the US appear like a safer port in a sea of turmoil and turbulence. How much of this is factored into the jump in US equity prices remains to be debated.
An aside. We wrote about CAPE recently. So here is a link that should give you some ideas about how to play the CAPE outside the US.
Friday, March 22, 2013
WHAT I LEARNED ABOUT GRATITUDE FROM A COUNTRY SONG AND JOE BIDEN
Many of us aren't grateful enough.
We don't fully grasp the importance of gratitude. It's such an easy, simple take-it-for granted thing.
No, this isn't going to be another of those motivational pieces that makes you feel great for the next 30 seconds or until your IBS flares up again. This is much more serious.
Country songs, especially the slower ones, usually tell a story. Often a heart-ripping one.
A few years ago on the backroads of my more energetic youth I first learned about the magical power of gratitude. I'll try to make this brief and not too heavy or sad.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
TENFOLD
Determined, persistent and never satisfied.
Sounds a lot like my old girlfriend's mother. She was always pushing for something, a wedding, a glass of good Tuscan red, dinner at Maestro's. But it's not.
I spend some of my time working with professional fighters, some of the nicest, gentlest, smartest people in the world. Now I'm not the main trainer. Just one of the guys who helps out, mostly with the strength and conditioning, nutrition and coagulating.
What a lot of people don't understand is good fighters have to travel somewhat to get good sparring. The world doesn't always come to your gym. So there's quite a bit of helping each other out.
The head trainer can't always accompany them. Sometimes you're getting more than one fighter ready for an upcoming bout. So you spend much time with them.
Bottom line they get to know you and you get to know them. Fighters, to borrow a line from a Randy Newman song, are people, too. When you go on the road for a fight there’s usually some downtime, not to mention the media and the weigh-in, before the fight. And all things pending, the tension.
Often it can turn into a kind of father-son or big-bro-little-bro relationship. Nobody likes to lose. Some of us hate to lose a big bunch, as in it freaking sucks, not to mention the pain. There's a lot of sweat, some disappointment and more than a few laughs. The winning validates it all.
And that brings me to my point. You go through a lot together. The word love gets vented too much these days, especially in sports. But that's what it becomes, a labor of love.Top to bottom I wouldn't trade my guys for anyone's. And it never disturbs me when I hear someone else in the profession utter the same sentiment.
Determined, persistent and never satisfied. Sounds like characteristics of a good options or commodities trader. At least all the ones I know.
Some no doubt will object, particularly to that never satisfied part. That's their choice. We all make them. But whatever you do or want to do, those three attributes expand way beyond the realm of professional fighting.
Determined, persistent and never give up. As structured it breaks the rule of parallelism in grammar. But so what.
Treat them with care and respect and they'll repay you ten-fold.
THURSDAY READ
A REAL SELLOUT
http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/02/22/coca-colas-innocent-weapon-in-the-sugar-wars/?mod=WSJ_article_outbrain&obref=obinsite#
EURO'S FATE ONE VIEWPOINT
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-may-be-doomed-whether-cyprus-stays-or-goes-2013-03-21?link=MW_story_investinginsight
RECOVERY FOR REAL
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/
SPEND IT IF YOU GOT IT
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100579544
LIVE IT LIKE THEY LOST IT
http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2013/03/live-your-life-as-if-everyone-else-was-going-to-die-today/
A CLOSE AFFAIR
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/The-Truth-Behind-Cyprus2527s-Bank-Catastrophe/3/21/2013/id/48846
FOOTSTEPS
One less set of footsteps on the floor go the words of an old Jim Croce song.
Croce was singing about breaking up with his significant other, something consumers often do with significant brands.
In business jargon that translates into every retailers' worse nightmare, fewer footprints. Whether its bricks and mortar or e-retailers that means fewer footsteps as in customers.
Since customers buy things they affect other things like inventory, less turnover means more shelf time or inventory pile-ups, not what any merchant hoping to make a decent profit wants.
So how does one get rid of stuff? Giving it away is probably the easiest, unless you're my old girlfriend. That took some ingenious PR work.
If you've read Jonah Berger's new best seller, "Contagious. Why Things Catch On," you'll know what I mean.
Retailers might call it something else, dropping prices. Falling prices squeeze profit margins. It can become a vicious fire sale. If you're a bargain hunter and you like the merchandise, a retailer's hard times can be your good ones.
A case in point is once hip Aeropostale, trading today a little over 13$ a share. About this time last year ARO changed hands around $22. That brings up the well-known but usual response: What happened?
To explain we've listed a few links below.
In the meantime, forget all those bogus Black Friday sales. Look for fewer footsteps.
http://www.investorguide.com/article/12368/aeropostale-aro-crashes-as-the-brand-continues-to-deflate/
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
THE BIG YAWN
Some say Washington with all its histrionics has given Wall Street a case of the yawns.
The recent no-reaction to Bernanke's pledge of further inaction is just one example.
Collectively, at least in some ways, the market is smarter than many believe. The deal to roll back any serious cuts until September, that's the stuff yawns are made from.
Now we know Fall is a beautiful time, hayrides, harvest moons and all that. Maybe by September we will all magically have forgotten the debt. The stock market, if Big Ben has anything to do with it, will provide the nepenthe.
But there's an easier, shorter way to achieve this. Just have Mr. Bloomberg and his crack crew draw it up. Nothing larger than 16 ounces, however. Just one straw. And please don't forget the outta-sight, outta-mind hotdog.
Or the President could declare a national holiday while the minority speaker of the house gets another lift. The thought of that is pretty distracting.
Now that economists have declared they're biased, maybe we could get the MSM and politicos to publicly announced the same. That should be good for a 5,000 point, one-day rally in the ole DJIA. C'mon, Ben, use your influence. One more old Princeton try.
Correlation just got caused by bias confirmation. It'll sell, Ben. Trust me.
And forget the Gipper. The Obamer just tossed a big completion for the meat inspectors, union folk all. Just as the pink slips were hitting the airway a Hail Mary suddenly spun past. It was a perfect spiral.
Part of the reason: Scare Tactic 101, the prospect of tainted meat. But if memory serves, a lot of tainted meat made the rounds given a full complement of inspectors.
But the Obamer might have head faked himself out of position here. A serious outbreak of meat-induced ptomaine could easily be hung on those popular Repubs.
Speaking of the Repubs, their defense is more porous than my old girlfriend's face. A one-eyed QB with a missing thumb on his throwing hand could toss for 400 yards against them--in the first quarter.
Now on to price stability. No, that's not a punk rock band. But it could be.
NIGHTY-NIGHT
BEDTIME FUN READING
http://www.mossadams.com/mossadams/media/Documents/Publications/MA%20Alerts/Alert_1212_IRS-Provides-Guidance-on-Additional-Medicare-Tax.pdf
A SNOOZER
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/caterpillar-retail-sales-fedex-earnings-fdx/3/20/2013/id/48835
THEY WANT THE MONEY
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/taxwatch/2013/03/19/tax-tip-seniors-dont-forget-april-1/
CHALK UP ONE FOR THE MEAT BOYS
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/20/senate-approves-measure-to-avert-usda-meat-inspect?ref=hp
HERE'S ONE FOR JUST BEFORE YOU TURN OUT THE LIGHTS
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/032013-648752-food-stamps-turn-rhode-island-town-upside-down.htm?ven=benzingacp
http://www.mossadams.com/mossadams/media/Documents/Publications/MA%20Alerts/Alert_1212_IRS-Provides-Guidance-on-Additional-Medicare-Tax.pdf
A SNOOZER
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/caterpillar-retail-sales-fedex-earnings-fdx/3/20/2013/id/48835
THEY WANT THE MONEY
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/taxwatch/2013/03/19/tax-tip-seniors-dont-forget-april-1/
CHALK UP ONE FOR THE MEAT BOYS
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/20/senate-approves-measure-to-avert-usda-meat-inspect?ref=hp
HERE'S ONE FOR JUST BEFORE YOU TURN OUT THE LIGHTS
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/032013-648752-food-stamps-turn-rhode-island-town-upside-down.htm?ven=benzingacp
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
TUESDAY READS
STEADY AS SHE DOES
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-me-worry-says-the-fed-2013-03-19?link=kiosk
WHAT NEXT?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/cyprus-rejects-deposit-levy-in-blow-to-european-bailout-plan.html
DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO YOU
http://www.inc.com/hollis-thomases/i-lost-thousands-of-dollars-dont-let-this-happen-to-you.html?cid=em01015week12d
BIG GAS, BIG MONEY
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/19/big-money-moving-natural-gas?ref=hp
BUREAUCRATS WILL BE BUREAUCRATS
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/french-minister-tasked-fighting-tax-fraud-resigns-having-secret-swiss-account
ELITE ATHLETES
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130318151634.htm
A NEVER ENDING QUESTION
It's a never ending question.
Just whom does one believe?
Last week big banks JP Morgan and Goldman Sacs drew some criticism from the Federal Reserve over the capital plans of the two giants. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond also faced claims that he tried to cover up a $6.2 billion trading loss by misleading regulators and investors.
For weeks now, especially since the run-up in the stock market, just about all we've been hearing is how much better prepared for an economic downturn, should it occur, the big banking industry is.
Neil Barofsky is a name most likely unfamiliar to many. A senior fellow at New York University, Barofsky is also a former special inspector general of the 2008-2009-born TARP or the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. The one used to supposedly right the USS Big Banking.
Barron's this past weekend ran a blurb, "Banking's Bitter Harvest," quoting Barofsky: "It's foolish to believe we're not on a path to another crisis." Now for the skeptics, it's true Barofsky has a new best-selling book out, "Bailout."
But nevertheless his point should be of interest. He says the big banks are even bigger today than before the bailout and still viewed as too big to fail.
Part of restoring public confidence is assuring that the banks have learned their lesson and are more financially sound for their ordeal. In many ways it's tied to the wealth effect the MSM pushes.
Take a look at this from The Big Picture.
http://t.ritholtz.com/bigpicture/#!/entry/discuss-customers-who-distrust-their-banks,5147ab21d7fc7b5670738c90
Or here.
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/03/the-least-trusted-banks-in-america/
Just whom does one believe?
Last week big banks JP Morgan and Goldman Sacs drew some criticism from the Federal Reserve over the capital plans of the two giants. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond also faced claims that he tried to cover up a $6.2 billion trading loss by misleading regulators and investors.
For weeks now, especially since the run-up in the stock market, just about all we've been hearing is how much better prepared for an economic downturn, should it occur, the big banking industry is.
Neil Barofsky is a name most likely unfamiliar to many. A senior fellow at New York University, Barofsky is also a former special inspector general of the 2008-2009-born TARP or the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. The one used to supposedly right the USS Big Banking.
Barron's this past weekend ran a blurb, "Banking's Bitter Harvest," quoting Barofsky: "It's foolish to believe we're not on a path to another crisis." Now for the skeptics, it's true Barofsky has a new best-selling book out, "Bailout."
But nevertheless his point should be of interest. He says the big banks are even bigger today than before the bailout and still viewed as too big to fail.
Part of restoring public confidence is assuring that the banks have learned their lesson and are more financially sound for their ordeal. In many ways it's tied to the wealth effect the MSM pushes.
Take a look at this from The Big Picture.
http://t.ritholtz.com/bigpicture/#!/entry/discuss-customers-who-distrust-their-banks,5147ab21d7fc7b5670738c90
Or here.
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/03/the-least-trusted-banks-in-america/
Monday, March 18, 2013
THE NANNY STATE CONTINUES TO GROW
A recent article about the explosion of Americans on food stamps, a fact many believe contributes to escalating food prices, quickly deteriorated in the comments section to a racial discussion.
And some people wonder why websites and even some in MSM are either considering or are blocking their comments sections. Too often the comments completely sidestep the issue and sink into ad hominid.
Dumb is what we say. Not too different from pretending that painful rock in your brogans ain't there.
The nanny state of which food stamps is only a part continues to grow. Think for a second of it as home prices or tech stocks or swamp land in the 1920s in Florida, one great big giant bubble. Bubbles have a way of getting pricked.
Discourse about how much is too much is futile. Like the federal deficit, we're long past that point. If you think it's painful now, just wait around. The paucity of real leadership in the world today is frightening.
If you need a clear example, see Cyprus. In the meantime here is a further insight into the growing nanny state. http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/welfare-costs-rapidly-escalating-everywhere.html
Make the mistake that the US is different if you want. Truth is welfare has become the proverbial room full of measles.
And some people wonder why websites and even some in MSM are either considering or are blocking their comments sections. Too often the comments completely sidestep the issue and sink into ad hominid.
Dumb is what we say. Not too different from pretending that painful rock in your brogans ain't there.
The nanny state of which food stamps is only a part continues to grow. Think for a second of it as home prices or tech stocks or swamp land in the 1920s in Florida, one great big giant bubble. Bubbles have a way of getting pricked.
Discourse about how much is too much is futile. Like the federal deficit, we're long past that point. If you think it's painful now, just wait around. The paucity of real leadership in the world today is frightening.
If you need a clear example, see Cyprus. In the meantime here is a further insight into the growing nanny state. http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/welfare-costs-rapidly-escalating-everywhere.html
Make the mistake that the US is different if you want. Truth is welfare has become the proverbial room full of measles.
CYPRUS
A butterfly flaps its wings in Asia and causes a tsunami of the coast of Florida.
Now that may not happen given the latest news about bank deposits in tiny Cyprus, an island of roughly one million off the coast of Greece.
The Cyprus government bought some more time earlier today when it apparently decided to delay any vote on the matter until Tuesday.
But don't be mislead by the smallness of Cyprus.
It is a full-fledged member of the EU and people are not so dense as to recognize that what happens in Cyprus doesn't always stay in Cyprus. Italy, Greece and Spain have bank depositors, too.
And they are not alone when it comes to the possibility of further assistance.
This has always been a northern versus southern riff with fiscally sounder northern countries like Germany and Finland reluctant to bail out its weaker, southern members of the EU.
Like most cases there are unforeseen ripples that become visible later. The UK has a military presence in Cyprus and with reportedly over 1.5 billion euros deposited there. Any tax would, whether Britain is compensated in some way, send further ripples back to the UK where many oppose any connection with the Eurozone.
Many Brits oppose giving up its sovereign currency. And this could easily fuel more I-told-you-so talk.
Russia may have a say. Initial response from Moscow has been critical. Russia supplies much of the EU's natural gas thirst, so it is hardly without bargaining chips.
As for Americans who for the most part are getting next nothing on their bank deposits, perception becomes even more important. It can happen here with revenue hungry federal, state and local governments conspicuously on the prowl.
Recall that many big banks here not that long ago wanted to charge ATM fees for withdrawing your own money. A fee is a tax whether it's imposed by private or public entities.
Read the Cyprus story carefully and you won't have any difficulty finding the tax term.
Now that may not happen given the latest news about bank deposits in tiny Cyprus, an island of roughly one million off the coast of Greece.
The Cyprus government bought some more time earlier today when it apparently decided to delay any vote on the matter until Tuesday.
But don't be mislead by the smallness of Cyprus.
It is a full-fledged member of the EU and people are not so dense as to recognize that what happens in Cyprus doesn't always stay in Cyprus. Italy, Greece and Spain have bank depositors, too.
And they are not alone when it comes to the possibility of further assistance.
This has always been a northern versus southern riff with fiscally sounder northern countries like Germany and Finland reluctant to bail out its weaker, southern members of the EU.
Like most cases there are unforeseen ripples that become visible later. The UK has a military presence in Cyprus and with reportedly over 1.5 billion euros deposited there. Any tax would, whether Britain is compensated in some way, send further ripples back to the UK where many oppose any connection with the Eurozone.
Many Brits oppose giving up its sovereign currency. And this could easily fuel more I-told-you-so talk.
Russia may have a say. Initial response from Moscow has been critical. Russia supplies much of the EU's natural gas thirst, so it is hardly without bargaining chips.
As for Americans who for the most part are getting next nothing on their bank deposits, perception becomes even more important. It can happen here with revenue hungry federal, state and local governments conspicuously on the prowl.
Recall that many big banks here not that long ago wanted to charge ATM fees for withdrawing your own money. A fee is a tax whether it's imposed by private or public entities.
Read the Cyprus story carefully and you won't have any difficulty finding the tax term.
MONDAY MORNING READS
FED TAPERING COULD TRIGGER
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-risk-harder-drop-if-fed-hints-at-tapering-2013-03-17
SO MUCH FOR PSI AND ONEOFF
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
COULD THIS SPILLOVER
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2013/03/17/cyprus-thai-baht-97-redux/
ASIAN STOCKS DOWN
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/asian-stocks-drop-most-in-month-on-cyprus-deposit-tax.html
US STOCKS FALL
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/u-s-stock-index-futures-drop-on-cyprus-bank-levy.html
Saturday, March 16, 2013
WEEK AHEAD
EUROPEAN DRAG
http://peakoil.com/consumption/17-signs-of-a-full-blown-economic-depression-raging-in-southern-europe
WEEK AHEAD
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/16/us-usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSBRE92E11620130316
LOWER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/15/consumer-sentiment-in-us-falls-to-lowest-point-in?ref=hp
FED WILL DRIVE THE HERD IN WEEK AHEAD
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100558245
Friday, March 15, 2013
MARKET WRAP
The market took a brief respite today, a long overdue one many believe, after 10-straight up days causing just as many others to believe the run is the beginning of the next prolonged bull market.
The DJIA closed down a big 25 points, or 0.2%, on heavier volume, at 14,514.11 while the S&P 500 index declined 2.5 points, 0.2%, leaving it just under 5 points from its all-time high.
The slight decline sets the table for next week to see which way the market goes, onward and upward to new highs or downward to some kind of meaningful correction.
The specter of inflation popped into the equation Friday when February's consumer prices showed a 0.7% increase, most of it coming from higher gasoline prices, according to the US Department of Labor.
Most believe that the trend in February will not impact future inflation and cause the Fed to change monetary policy. The easy-money trend, in other words, according to these watchers, is still intact.
It should be noted that many people don't trust the government's numbers, to beging with, arguing the Fed and other central banks along with some hedge fund folks have been keeping a lid on the price of gold.
Toss in a compliant MSM and you have all the necessary ingredients to bake the perception cake of your choice. Markets are to peception as perception is to wealth effect.
Next week investors will be watching the latest FOMC meeting, news about the propsects of growth in EU and budget discussions in the UK.
The DJIA closed down a big 25 points, or 0.2%, on heavier volume, at 14,514.11 while the S&P 500 index declined 2.5 points, 0.2%, leaving it just under 5 points from its all-time high.
The slight decline sets the table for next week to see which way the market goes, onward and upward to new highs or downward to some kind of meaningful correction.
The specter of inflation popped into the equation Friday when February's consumer prices showed a 0.7% increase, most of it coming from higher gasoline prices, according to the US Department of Labor.
Most believe that the trend in February will not impact future inflation and cause the Fed to change monetary policy. The easy-money trend, in other words, according to these watchers, is still intact.
It should be noted that many people don't trust the government's numbers, to beging with, arguing the Fed and other central banks along with some hedge fund folks have been keeping a lid on the price of gold.
Toss in a compliant MSM and you have all the necessary ingredients to bake the perception cake of your choice. Markets are to peception as perception is to wealth effect.
Next week investors will be watching the latest FOMC meeting, news about the propsects of growth in EU and budget discussions in the UK.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
OUR TAKE
They say no risk no gain.
Here's our short-term view on this market. Expect a 5-6% pullback. We raised some cash recently for the pull back to buy at better prices. Know ahead of time what you want to buy. Stick with quality.
It's not the first half of this year we're worried about. If the second half gets ugly you may still get slammed, but you'll be glad you own quality.
The truth is no one--and we mean no one--knows for certain the future of this run, flash in the pan, mini-bull or major full speed ahead.
Ask yourself this question. Do you drive around at different hours of the day and night with a flat spare tire in your trunk?
Here's our short-term view on this market. Expect a 5-6% pullback. We raised some cash recently for the pull back to buy at better prices. Know ahead of time what you want to buy. Stick with quality.
It's not the first half of this year we're worried about. If the second half gets ugly you may still get slammed, but you'll be glad you own quality.
The truth is no one--and we mean no one--knows for certain the future of this run, flash in the pan, mini-bull or major full speed ahead.
Ask yourself this question. Do you drive around at different hours of the day and night with a flat spare tire in your trunk?
THE RALLY CONTINUES
The rally in the stock market continues, but where's the volume and the leadership?
The DJIA closed today up 83 points, or 0.6%, at 14,539.14, a new closing high on lower than average volume. Since March 1, daily volume has been declining, not particularly a positive sign for the market in general, some analysts believe.
Leaderships begs another question. So far it's been mostly defensive issues leading the parade. Also conspicuously absent, according to many traders, is Joe Retailer. There are few, if any real signs, retail investors are jumping on board.
The S&P P 500 also rallied, closing at 1,563.23, just points from its all-time high set in 2007. Advance-declines on the NYSE were 2:1.
Tomorrow should prove interesting going into the weekend.
The DJIA closed today up 83 points, or 0.6%, at 14,539.14, a new closing high on lower than average volume. Since March 1, daily volume has been declining, not particularly a positive sign for the market in general, some analysts believe.
Leaderships begs another question. So far it's been mostly defensive issues leading the parade. Also conspicuously absent, according to many traders, is Joe Retailer. There are few, if any real signs, retail investors are jumping on board.
The S&P P 500 also rallied, closing at 1,563.23, just points from its all-time high set in 2007. Advance-declines on the NYSE were 2:1.
Tomorrow should prove interesting going into the weekend.
ANOTHER VIEW
Editor's note: We don't have a greyhound in the race mentioned in Budget story nor do we know anyone connected with the Empire organization. We just bumped into the story in our wide readings as we search for solid, factual information to pass along to our readers, many of whom we're sure travel as we do. You can decide for yourselves.
BUDGET CAR RENTAL SERVICE
http://www.empirepage.com/37-editors-blog
THE RED AND THE BLUE LIVES
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2013/03/abortion-laws-south
THE WEALTH EFFECT: IS IT SHRINKING?
http://www.money.cnn.com/2013/03/13/news/economy/stocks-housing-wealth-effect/index.html
ASIAN STOCKS EX-JAPAN DOWN
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-stocks-rise-as-rest-of-asia-lower-2013-03-13?pagenumber=2
PUNDIT SAYS BEWARE CHINA
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/14/marc-faber-says-investors-should-fear-chinas-colossal-credit-bubble/
Exclusive: Chinese firm puts millions into U.S. natural gas stations
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/14/us-enn-lng-usa-idUSBRE92D09Y20130314
Capitalizing on the Dow’s unloved rallyhttp://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/14/capitalizing-on-the-dows-unloved-rally?ref=hp
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
MARKET WRAP
Well, they did it again.
The DJIA closed up for the ninth consecutive day, the best run since late 1996. Much of the uproar centered on better-than-expected February retail sales. Credit the consumer, but don't leave out the Fed with its bogus "wealth effect."
This is exactly what the Fed wants: Get the natives feeling better about themselves and their future via housing prices and construction or voodoo if necessary. That's what some believe the Fed's current MP is: A little of this, a little of that and a lot of voodoo.
The DJIA eked out a gain, closing at 14,45.28, up 0.04% while the S & P 500 inched closer to it all-time high closing at 1,554.52.
The nine day streak is the best since the 10-day run in November 1996. The thing to keep in mind is the longer the run goes on the more likely the upcoming pullback--and there will be one--might be steeper than most expect.
The DJIA closed up for the ninth consecutive day, the best run since late 1996. Much of the uproar centered on better-than-expected February retail sales. Credit the consumer, but don't leave out the Fed with its bogus "wealth effect."
This is exactly what the Fed wants: Get the natives feeling better about themselves and their future via housing prices and construction or voodoo if necessary. That's what some believe the Fed's current MP is: A little of this, a little of that and a lot of voodoo.
The DJIA eked out a gain, closing at 14,45.28, up 0.04% while the S & P 500 inched closer to it all-time high closing at 1,554.52.
The nine day streak is the best since the 10-day run in November 1996. The thing to keep in mind is the longer the run goes on the more likely the upcoming pullback--and there will be one--might be steeper than most expect.
ANOTHER VIEW
STOCKS UP FOR NINTH STRAIGHT DAY
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/us-markets-stocks-idUSBRE92A07T20130313
HOLLOW BOOM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2013/03/13/wall-streets-hollow-boom-with-small-business-and-startups-lagging-employment-wont-pick-up/
US HAS STOPPED ACCUSING CHINA OF MANIPULATION
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/13/qe-gun-boat-diplomacy-toward-chinas-currency?ref=hp
STRAIGHT AHEAD
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100549224
FED POLICY LIMITED
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704836204578358342392128724.html?mod=BOL_hps_highlight_top
IS THE RALLY GETTING READY?
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11868337/1/cramer-dow-rally-is-on-borrowed-time.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/us-markets-stocks-idUSBRE92A07T20130313
HOLLOW BOOM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2013/03/13/wall-streets-hollow-boom-with-small-business-and-startups-lagging-employment-wont-pick-up/
US HAS STOPPED ACCUSING CHINA OF MANIPULATION
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/13/qe-gun-boat-diplomacy-toward-chinas-currency?ref=hp
STRAIGHT AHEAD
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100549224
FED POLICY LIMITED
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704836204578358342392128724.html?mod=BOL_hps_highlight_top
IS THE RALLY GETTING READY?
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11868337/1/cramer-dow-rally-is-on-borrowed-time.html
TO CATCH THE FEW
One of the basic contentions we've spent a lot of time talking and writing about over the years is how governments seem to love punishing the many to catch the few.
You see it just about everywhere. Too big to fail is just another variation.
They're more examples than we could possibly go into here. But gun control is an obvious one. Another is punishing the prudent to rescue the irresponsible. Taxing the productive to prop up the slothful is still another.
A recruiter, no not a military but academic one, strolls into a high school senior class in early May and says he would like all the students who have gotten straight As for four years to raise their hands. Five do and he directs them to a corner in the back of the room.
He then does the same thing with all the students who earned straight Bs for four years. They are told to join the straight A students. Then all the ones who did the same with straight Cs for four years.
Nine students remain, six who have earned straight Ds for four years and three who managed only Ds and Fs for four years.
At this point the recruiter smiles, rubs his hands together and announces to the nine: "This is the day you've been working so hard for these last four years. We're going to reward you nine with free four-year scholarships to the Ivy League college of your choice. "
Now we didn't see the study ourselves, but an acquaintance we're told who follows such things closely informed us he did. Eight of the nine selected Harvard.
A lot of folks when talking First Amendment politics think its greatest feature is the guaranteed rights of freedom of speech, assemblage and religion. Sorry, but that's just wrong. Dumb wrong.
The greatest thing about the First Amendment is it guarantees one the right to do stupid stuff. Period. Think here of folks in New York City who choose to spend their own money gulping down extra-large sodas.
Judging from what history we've been able to study, people have been doing dumb and stupid stuff for centuries. Outlawing that right is akin to debasing a language or a currency.
Consider for a minute electing Joe Biden Vice President for two terms and Jimmy Carter president for one. Or George W. and Ulysses S. Grant. Or in California where those folks elected The Terminator twice and followed that with some warmed-up Brown hash.
Some folks would no doubt toss in Herbert Hoover and we'd have to somewhat agree. A lot of folks who don't know their history don't know he was the original originator of The New Deal, a pretty dumb idea in itself.
"There is no reason to assume that...the risks anticipated by each must be deemed equal in value, " as Daniel Bernouilli, a Swiss mathematician and physicist noted in the 18th Century.
That's a to-each-his own statement. The other half of that equation, utility, is intuitive and individual, a fact that punishing the many to catch a few clearly violates.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
ANOTHER VIEW
Can Somebody Please Tell Congress
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130312121851.htm
Republicans Cough Up 10-Year
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/us-usa-fiscal-ryan-idUSBRE92B02E20130312
Currency Wars Matter
http://www.businesswithoutborders.com/industries/finance-industries/currency-wars-cast-a-shadow-on-global-trade/
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130312121851.htm
Republicans Cough Up 10-Year
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/us-usa-fiscal-ryan-idUSBRE92B02E20130312
Currency Wars Matter
http://www.businesswithoutborders.com/industries/finance-industries/currency-wars-cast-a-shadow-on-global-trade/
SNAPPY HEADLINES
Fads come and go.
One of the latest, especially in the news and advertising business, is stories or headlines like this: "Five Exercises You Should Never Do," or "The 10 Worse Foods For Your Left Great Toe."
Here's a recent one we came across and legions of similar ones are floating around out there: "Six Sexual Moves Celebrities Enjoy To Ramp Up Their Sex Lives." Now this one, you got to know, has it all--celebrities, sex, ecstasy. If celebrities are doing it, it must be above the rim.
Here're a few picked at random from the investing world, "Six Big Myths About 529 Plans," "10 Tax Breaks For Investors," "10 Best Mutual Funds" and "4 Ways The Market Could Surprise You." The writer of this last one, I'm pretty sure, plagiarized the idea from one of my old girlfriends.
If you don't want to miss articles like that one and others pay more attention at the checkout counter or to your evening news instead of squeezing the avocados so long at the grocery.
As any blogger who's bothered to look knows, content maybe king but snappy headlines is what's it's all about. That's just one of the many ways fledging bloggers hoping to make it big are advised to fuel their online businesses.
Here's another recent example from one of the world's leading newspapers that takes itself way too seriously, the Los Angeles Times: "The Five Biggest Lies About Entitlement Programs."
When you go to the store to buy food do you go to buy food you don't like? How about restaurants? We've written before about those red and blue election maps that pop up every four years. We pointed out there are only two types of historians, red and blue.
The same holds for MSM. The only difference is MSM may be a bit more subtle about it, kind of like Joe Biden or Karl Rove. In the investment world it's the bulls and the bears, the red and the blue. Same story, just a different arena. Taking stocks higher so you can then short them is not uncommon anymore than pushing them lower so you can buy them cheaper is.
Level playing fields exist but not in this dimension. Recently, the WSJ featured an article about the world's oldest investor, a successful, 107 year-old guy who still reads two newspapers and several magazines a day and practices pretty much a buy-and-hold strategy laden with quality-type companies.
When asked why, he said: "Because I want to know more about the companies I'm buying than the guy does who's selling."
Even the dumbest stock broker knows about front running, a law against putting on a position ahead of your clients on a stock you're hawking. The regulators' answer is full disclosure, as in we don't currently own or have a position in this equity.
Most sports today except a few like boxing have replay cameras. One boxing wag, a noted former boxing judge, recently blurted on national television this gem: "Referees are trained if they didn't see it (a headbutt), call it a punch." If you don't see it, how can you call it anything. So much for level playing fields.
And too so much for MSM, stocks, news or sports.
So we'll leave you with a quote from former President Dwight D. Eisenhower who happened to be a pretty good commanding general in his previous life, but who was caught off guard as president when he gave orders nobody bothered to carry out. It's the culture.
"If everyone is thinking the same thing, nobody is thinking."
One of the latest, especially in the news and advertising business, is stories or headlines like this: "Five Exercises You Should Never Do," or "The 10 Worse Foods For Your Left Great Toe."
Here's a recent one we came across and legions of similar ones are floating around out there: "Six Sexual Moves Celebrities Enjoy To Ramp Up Their Sex Lives." Now this one, you got to know, has it all--celebrities, sex, ecstasy. If celebrities are doing it, it must be above the rim.
Here're a few picked at random from the investing world, "Six Big Myths About 529 Plans," "10 Tax Breaks For Investors," "10 Best Mutual Funds" and "4 Ways The Market Could Surprise You." The writer of this last one, I'm pretty sure, plagiarized the idea from one of my old girlfriends.
If you don't want to miss articles like that one and others pay more attention at the checkout counter or to your evening news instead of squeezing the avocados so long at the grocery.
As any blogger who's bothered to look knows, content maybe king but snappy headlines is what's it's all about. That's just one of the many ways fledging bloggers hoping to make it big are advised to fuel their online businesses.
Here's another recent example from one of the world's leading newspapers that takes itself way too seriously, the Los Angeles Times: "The Five Biggest Lies About Entitlement Programs."
When you go to the store to buy food do you go to buy food you don't like? How about restaurants? We've written before about those red and blue election maps that pop up every four years. We pointed out there are only two types of historians, red and blue.
The same holds for MSM. The only difference is MSM may be a bit more subtle about it, kind of like Joe Biden or Karl Rove. In the investment world it's the bulls and the bears, the red and the blue. Same story, just a different arena. Taking stocks higher so you can then short them is not uncommon anymore than pushing them lower so you can buy them cheaper is.
Level playing fields exist but not in this dimension. Recently, the WSJ featured an article about the world's oldest investor, a successful, 107 year-old guy who still reads two newspapers and several magazines a day and practices pretty much a buy-and-hold strategy laden with quality-type companies.
When asked why, he said: "Because I want to know more about the companies I'm buying than the guy does who's selling."
Even the dumbest stock broker knows about front running, a law against putting on a position ahead of your clients on a stock you're hawking. The regulators' answer is full disclosure, as in we don't currently own or have a position in this equity.
Most sports today except a few like boxing have replay cameras. One boxing wag, a noted former boxing judge, recently blurted on national television this gem: "Referees are trained if they didn't see it (a headbutt), call it a punch." If you don't see it, how can you call it anything. So much for level playing fields.
And too so much for MSM, stocks, news or sports.
So we'll leave you with a quote from former President Dwight D. Eisenhower who happened to be a pretty good commanding general in his previous life, but who was caught off guard as president when he gave orders nobody bothered to carry out. It's the culture.
"If everyone is thinking the same thing, nobody is thinking."
STOCK MARKET PARLANCE
In the parlance of the stock market there's something called CAPE.
No, it's not about Cape Cod or the Cape of Good Hope, though in some ways it could refer to the latter.
CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. In simple terms, it's a way to use p/e to factor in the effect a business cycle has on earnings. Like a lot of things, one can use it to make a comparison.
Compare what? In this case cheap versus expensive. One of my old bosses was cheap, one of my old girlfriends expensive, but please don't tell her 'cause she was a ranked kick boxer and a former roller derby queen who knows how scuffle and bite.
So let's do it. But first we need to know the historical average of CAPE. According to Goldman Sacs, it's a bit under 19. And now, again according to GS, we're at 24.
By comparison German and Great Britain equities have CAPEs of 13 and 12. We'll respectfully omit the respectively after 13 and 12 because we don't want to insult your intelligence.
Now like Zorro, Superman and a few other notables, we're fond of capes too. That's why we think a short-term regression might be on the horizon for those of us who disdain paying full freight.
If we're wrong it won't be the last time. If we're correct, well, there are a few long term goodies we like, at a lower price.
Monday, March 11, 2013
ANOTHER VIEW
Chinese Banking Probe Push Shares Lower
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-stocks-brighten-as-japan-climbs-again-2013-03-11
Gold Losing Its Luster?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/gold-sales-from-soros-reveal-12-year-bull-run-decay-commodities.html
Business As Usual
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Debt-and-Taxes/2013/03/11/Congress-Doled-Out-Bonuses-Ahead-of-Fiscal-Cliff.aspx#page1
Reverse Rotation
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100544442
Congress And Those Scarce Jobs
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/03/10/The-Biggest-Threat-to-the-Jobs-Recovery.aspx#page1
Another View: Not All Prices Rise Together
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/03/11/the-relationship-between-money-and-prices?t=commodities
Forewarned Is As They Say http://ycharts.com/analysis/story/if_caseshiller_index_is_hot_why_is_its_founder_doubting
Gun Control A Broader View
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/0311/Why-America-isn-t-the-only-country-that-wants-guns-for-self-defense?nav=90-csm_category-topStories
SOME JUDICIAL SENSE
Some judicial sense, finally.http://www.cnbc.com/id/100442833
A New York judge interdicts ban on sugary drinks Mayor Bloomberg and his food Gestapo tried to ram down the gullets of New Yorkers.
Not so fast. All you cheerleaders take note. Inflation seems to be kicking up in China and global growth prospects waning.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-growth-has-burned-out-and-faded-away-2013-03-11?dist=afterbell
A New York judge interdicts ban on sugary drinks Mayor Bloomberg and his food Gestapo tried to ram down the gullets of New Yorkers.
Not so fast. All you cheerleaders take note. Inflation seems to be kicking up in China and global growth prospects waning.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-growth-has-burned-out-and-faded-away-2013-03-11?dist=afterbell
Sunday, March 10, 2013
PLAYING THE BRICS
Looking for a safer way to play the BRIC world?
You might want to look at last year's Kraft spin off, Mendelez, MDLZ.
As a recent Barron's article notes the stock, trading at $28 and change, is essentially a snack food company. Just a few of its products include Cadbury, Ritz Crackers, Dentyne, Oreo Cookies and Wheat Thins. It has many others like Philadelphia cream cheese and Dentyne.
Buffett can have his cherry coke. Offhand we don't know of a single, solitary interplanetary soul who doesn't enjoy an Oreo and a cold glass of milk?
Right off the bat you need to know we own the stock and have been slowly adding to it since acquiring shares in the spin off last year.
Understand in our view this is not a trader but one of those God-awful, Warren Buffett-like buy and holders with a small dividend and a lot of growth potential. The current p/e, around 18, is a little high, but isn't that what expected growth is all about?
Take a look at some of its competitors, all growing slower at much higher P/E ratios. And could this be a decent currency play if the dollar tanks?
According to Barron's, with revenue in 2012 of $35 billion, 75% of its sales last year came from three rapid growing snack food categories, chocolate, candy, cookies and crackers.
As one analyst puts it, snack foods are lucrative with good profit margins and little competition from the ever-worrisome private-label firms that continue to chew away at the margins in the grocery business.
In case you're not aware Pepsi's another snack food business, more so than many realize. Here's a little snack to consider with your Oreos and milk. Of MDLZ's 29 well-known brands, nine generate more than $1 billion in annual sales. And, yes, Oreos is one of them.
Now about those BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China. MDLZ gets about 30% of its annual sale there. When you consider the prospects for annual growth in developing versus developed countries, it's a no-contester. And remember at least for the nonce snack foods are cheaper and have better profit margins than cars.
A possible unforeseen risk is the food police. We just toss that in so you can't say no one did.
One other quick point. Though we have not heard anything, this is just one of those wild, silly thoughts we get every once in a two-thirds moon while walking the dog, Taylor.
You want to remember the MAINE. But recall too the HEINZ.
Friday, March 8, 2013
THE RISE AND FALL OF ANDY ZAKY
The guru rule lives.
Not that there's much joy in this story for anyone. There isn't.
It's story way beyond the rise and decline of one person or the rest of the investors involved.
It's a story about people, efficient market theory be damned.
It's a story about how inefficient investors can become.
Choose whatever terms you like. Greed, fear, ignorance, faith, it's still the same.
It's a story about people being people. And it won't be the last one.
Call just about any large firm today and you'll get a robot. Some even tell you: "I can understand complete sentences. How can I help you?"
My response is almost always the same. "Let me talk to a human being? That's a complete sentence."
But those robots have to be programmed, just like Zaky and his investors.
Talk all you want about quants, black swans and technical indicators. Talk all the regulations you want. Behind every market it's still about people.
And that's not going to change anytime soon.
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/07/why-analysts-should-not-be-investors-andy-zaky-edition/
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/apple-zaky-bullish-cross/
Not that there's much joy in this story for anyone. There isn't.
It's story way beyond the rise and decline of one person or the rest of the investors involved.
It's a story about people, efficient market theory be damned.
It's a story about how inefficient investors can become.
Choose whatever terms you like. Greed, fear, ignorance, faith, it's still the same.
It's a story about people being people. And it won't be the last one.
Call just about any large firm today and you'll get a robot. Some even tell you: "I can understand complete sentences. How can I help you?"
My response is almost always the same. "Let me talk to a human being? That's a complete sentence."
But those robots have to be programmed, just like Zaky and his investors.
Talk all you want about quants, black swans and technical indicators. Talk all the regulations you want. Behind every market it's still about people.
And that's not going to change anytime soon.
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/07/why-analysts-should-not-be-investors-andy-zaky-edition/
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/apple-zaky-bullish-cross/
Thursday, March 7, 2013
RESEARCH FINDINGS: TRUE OF FALSE
If you've ever fooled around in the world of medicine or business or, for that matter, Wall Street (And don't let the term, fool around, distort what we're saying here, though we know it will be difficult.), don't miss this read.
Now here's a little teaser. You need to know this is scientific prose, we use the word prose advisedly, so the water can be a little cold and the current a bit turbulent.
But as the saying goes frown a lot and bear your way through it.
"Is it unavoidable that most research findings are false, or can we improve the situation? A major problem is that it is impossible to know with 100% certainty what the truth is in any research question. In this regard, the pure “gold” standard is unattainable. However, there are several approaches to improve the post-study probability."
http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
Now here's a little teaser. You need to know this is scientific prose, we use the word prose advisedly, so the water can be a little cold and the current a bit turbulent.
But as the saying goes frown a lot and bear your way through it.
"Is it unavoidable that most research findings are false, or can we improve the situation? A major problem is that it is impossible to know with 100% certainty what the truth is in any research question. In this regard, the pure “gold” standard is unattainable. However, there are several approaches to improve the post-study probability."
http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
THE BUSINESS OF AMERICA
Here's a quote from Warren Buffett's annual report to his shareholders. Make of it what you want and will.
Remember the Guru Rule: There are no gurus. Only two things can prove Buffett incorrect: more government regulations and higher taxes all around.
If as Buffett states "investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor," America and its businesses are no less favorably stacked. Kill one, kill the other.
As John D. Rockefeller once said: "The business of America is business."
“American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance. Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor…Since the basic game is so favorable, Charlie and I believe it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of “experts,” or the ebb and flow of business activity. The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.”We spend much time every now and then talking about the so-called experts. Yes, they know who they are. Just ask them. Go back and look at JFK's quote about the Bay of Pigs disaster and the experts. A little history now and then doesn't hurt, either.
Remember the Guru Rule: There are no gurus. Only two things can prove Buffett incorrect: more government regulations and higher taxes all around.
If as Buffett states "investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor," America and its businesses are no less favorably stacked. Kill one, kill the other.
As John D. Rockefeller once said: "The business of America is business."
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
MOM AND MARKETS
My mother was an RN. So it was pretty hard to wake up on a rainy, wintery school morning and feign illness. If you said you felt warm, had a fever, she'd take your temperature. A sore throat, she's get a flashlight and check.
Who knew what she knew or what she saw when she looked in there? It was a lot like one of those days that starts out cloudy and keeps getting clearer and clearer. To fool mom I was going to have to up my game--a lot. And believe me my brother and I tried.Think of the market as mom. And don't be fooled by the term fool. The market's been there a long time, doing what markets do. Occasionally a newcomer pulls off a stunner or two. Economists, as they do for nearly everything, have a term for that, outlier.Most of us are hardly outliers. Now don't get your undies all twisted in a bunch. That's neither bad nor good. Just is. Most of us are basic block-and-tacklers, to use a football idiom. We get better with repetition if we keep at it. It's a basic rule of life: Whatever you focus on expands.A lot of people probably see Warren Buffett as a genius and that doesn't disturb me.Another way to see it, however, is he's a brilliant block and tackler, a real Mr. Fundamentals. He's put in the time, he's consistent and the chances are way better than good he's gotten better at it.Several years ago I shared an office with an options trader, a pretty good one. One morning when things were particularly slow, he told about his early market experiences.
When he got out of college, clutching his freshly, new-minted business degree, he started trading options, something he'd only dabbled at but enjoyed a modicum of success in school.Curious is as curious does, so I asked him how it went.He told me terrible at first, just awful, as I recall. So I offered the usual assumption, laced with a trace of sympathy such occasions often require:"Had some big losers, huh.?""Oh, no !" he said, laughing. "They were all big winners. My first 8 or 10 trades went like Swiss clockwork. I thought I was a genius, knew everything. And then...."It's the "and thens" we all need to be mindful of that usually come without a warning, like mom with her flashlight.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)