Wednesday, March 27, 2013

LAND OF THE NEARSIGHTED


A long weekend awaits.

Traders traditionally don't like to go into three day weekends with positions that could turn vulnerable quickly.

 Given all the turmoil in Europe and other spots, we could see further weakness into Thursday since the market will observe Good Friday. A recent survey in France revealed  80% believe their country is bankrupt. Are they realists or just slow learners?

At the same time the trouble warrants some snooping as Euro shares take a hit. If you buy into the US recovery story, you might want to snoop out some of Europe's better multinationals. They're out there.

Money always leaves the overbought. Buy what's cheap. If you don't know what's cheap, find out. 

If you think deflation is the problem, then the safer bet favors utilities and drug stocks, things people depend on and use like booze and tobacco and sex. 

If you like to buy the out-of-favor, downtrodden, snoop around cyclicals and mining companies particularly gold mining shares. Some even offer decent payouts like Newmont.

We know gold is under pressure, hedge fund selling, prospects of stronger dollar and higher interest rates. A key question here is when does the Fed's QE end, this year or early next. Big Ben surely wants to put it to bed for his legacy before he ponies back to the College of New Jersey, otherwise known as Woodrow Wilson U.

Rather than hide from the turmoil embrace it. It is what it is. Chaos creates opportunity. As long as you know your tolerance level, have done your homework and you understand the risks, you can still get jarred. But you're not flying blindly.

Leave that for the politicians and the bureaucrats. If there were just put options on those boys and gals, we could all get George-Soros rich.

Remember cyclops rule in the land of the nearsighted.

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