Tuesday, March 12, 2013

STOCK MARKET PARLANCE


In the parlance of the stock market there's something called CAPE.

No, it's not about Cape Cod or the Cape of Good Hope, though in some ways it could refer to the latter.

CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. In simple terms, it's a way to use p/e to factor in the effect a business cycle has on earnings. Like a lot of things, one can use it to make a comparison.

Compare what? In this case cheap versus expensive. One of my old bosses was cheap, one of my old girlfriends expensive, but please don't tell her 'cause she was a ranked kick boxer and a former roller derby queen who knows how scuffle and bite.

So let's do it. But first we need to know the historical average of CAPE.  According to Goldman Sacs, it's a bit under 19. And now, again according to GS, we're at 24.

By comparison German and Great Britain equities have CAPEs of 13 and 12. We'll respectfully omit the respectively after 13 and 12 because we don't want to insult your intelligence.

Now like Zorro, Superman and a few other notables, we're fond of capes too. That's why we think a short-term regression might be on the horizon for those of us who disdain paying full freight.

If we're wrong it won't be the last time. If we're correct, well, there are a few long term goodies we like, at a lower price.

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