CLUELESS

Lots of folks believe the Federal Reserve people haven't got a clue. Even the most perfunctory study of the Fed's history would pretty much substantiate that. It's one of those facts that hit you straight between your financial goal posts. 

Further evidence comes from the recently released 2008 Fed minutes. Trust these guys and gals at your own peril. 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-indicators-to-help-spot-the-next-crisis-2014-02-21

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SCAMS BY ANY OTHER NAME

Scams are still scams, high tech, low tech, central bank, Wall Street or otherwise.

Look no further than your: "We're from the government and we're here to help you." We'd use the term succor, but that most likely would get us in trouble with the protection police. With the kind of protection we refer to here in the listed link, given a choice, most of us would say: "Protection? We don't need no stinking protection."
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/2/22/why-the-government-wants-to-shortchange-american-seniors.html

WEATHER

Whether your pocketbook will weather the Western drought that is hitting central California particularly hard is the question.

Much of California cattle is grass fed. The area grows large amounts of pecans, nuts, lettuce and other veggies. See the recent issue of Barron's and here's a link to another reference:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-farm-drought-crisis-deepens-2014-02-22

FRESH AIR

Every once in a while a bit of fresh air blows in from some unexpected source. Here's one that could have serious ramifications should it become fact. Like the old saying: prayer sometimes gets answered. 

Either way it's the first of what could be a volley across the political bows of politicians across America.

Plan to divide California into 6 states gets closer to vote

A prominent Silicon Valley investor’s proposal to split California into six separate states has moved one step closer to getting on a ballot for vote.
The state has given venture capitalist Tim Draper the green light to begin collecting signatures for a petition to break apart the state. Draper, who describes California as too big to manage and essentially ungovernable, now has until July 18 to collect 807,615 signatures for a ballot initiative that could reach voters by November 2016.
Draper, whose bets on Skype and Hotmail have made him a billionaire, says “vast parts of our state are poorly served by a representative government,” according to his initiative.
“It is more and more difficult for Sacramento to keep up with the social issues from the various regions of California,” Draper told ABC News. “With six Californias, people will be closer to their state governments, and states can get a refresh.”
His proposal calls for one of the states to be called Silicon Valley, which would include San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa and San Francisco counties, as well as San Benito, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties.
The other states he’s proposing are Northern California, Southern California, Central California, Western California and Jefferson.
Proposals have surfaced over the years over whether the state should be split up.
“It’s certainly fun to talk about,” Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at California State University, Los Angeles, told the Associated Press. However,“its prospects are nil.”
Even if the measure passes, Congress, under the U.S. Constitution, would have final say on six states. Six individual states would give California 12 Senate seats.

THE TREND IS SUPPOSED TO BE

The tend is supposed to be one's friend, at least in the market.

But much depends on who's setting the trend. A recent report from the left-leaning think tank, the Brooking Institute, about the so-called growing inequality gap between the rich and the poor ain't "so profound or uniform."

With a smidgen of media honesty the same could be said for one of the other big boondoggles of our time, global warming.
http://m.thefiscaltimes.com/fiscaltimes/#!/entry/brookings-study-downplays-income-inequality-gap,530663c9025312186cd40fc5

AT IT AGAIN

Well, we're at it again. Back from the economic wilderness, making some decent gains along the way managing our own accounts. Our format will most likely be a little simpler, briefer this time. We hope some of you will join us.

INDICATORS

 

When it comes to indicators, it's a mixed bag.

The stock market as nearly everyone knows has been on a tear so far this year, up 15% even with the recent downturn.Will it continue or is a nasty correction or even perhaps a bear market just around the economic bend.

Markets supposedly climb a worry wall. Some indicators are getting better like manufacturing and the trade deficit. If last week was any indication, investors might want to check for weakening signs.

Indicators, though highly fallible, come in  all types--advance-declines, new highs-new lows, market breath, to name a few. Momentum is another well-watched indicator.

One such is the RSI or relative strength index. Simply put, it measures size and strength on days when stocks go up. Though it is considered a technical indicator, it has a sentiment component--that is, what and how people are feeling about the market.

The National Association of Home Builders survey hit the airways last week shedding some so-called good light on an otherwise gloomy scene.

But there may be--and we stress may be--more diluting its value as an indicator than just the general fear about the Federal Reserve diluting the contents of its punch bowl.  
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TODAY'S QUICK READS

Dow Drops 225 Yesterday On Fed Fears
 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324823804579014260595319996.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0

Merkel Win Will Help Europe Recover.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100967134

Apartment Construction Up, Housing Down
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/08/16/july-housing-starts/2660833/

Guru Speaks
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704148304579014383709752524.html?mod=BOL_da_wsbm

Practical Advice
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/08/16/take-5-a-roundup-of-reads-from-around-the-web-107/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-08-16&utm_medium=email

PRINTED FORMS

If you hang around medicine awhile you'll get a pretty good idea about printed forms.

But medicine isn't alone in its printed-form misery. Today it's everywhere.

After serving in the military and working for a time at the Veteran's Administration, it became Oh-Holy-Night-Clear that somewhere in the dank, dark entrails of DC there had to be a Department of Memoranda with one and only one purpose: Germinate more memoranda.

A reviling thought indeed but nevertheless, like your wife's mother coming for the holidays, your worst nightmare.

Memoranda and printed forms are the Siamese twins of the written word. Like Watson and Crick, Tinkers to Evers to Chance, Curley, Moe and Larry these two are inseparable.

Here's an excellent description of the printer-form miasma engulfing modern mankind and how those lovable legal legends of progress push their fare.

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=8586

NEWS

We touched on this in our Rights Are Rights Until They Aren't article.

Here's one more view about the changing news-journalism landscape. Agreeing or disagreeing isn't the point. It's more about life's only constant--change. Prepare for it.

http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130814183645-143695135-bezos-heraclitus-and-the-hybrid-future-of-journalism?_mSplash=1
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                                             MORE ON TAPERING

So what's the most important indicator that predicts when the Fed will cut back on a QE program that may go down in history as infamous when all is said and finished? Your guess is most likely as good as Bernanke's.

Playing around with knobs can be as dangerous as leaving a three year old unattended out by the family swimming pool. Anything can happen.

http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/08/take-aways-from-us-data-dump.html
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