Politics The Global Wayhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/19/french-inquiry-gaddafi-sarkozy-2007-campaign
The Volk Man
http://www.bostonreview.net/BR38.2/jonathan_david_kirshner_paul_volcker_rule_finance_william_silber.php
New Same
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/20/us-italy-vote-napolitano-idUSBRE93J09020130420
Cost To Boston Of Man Hunt
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/19/estimating-the-economic-cost-of-the-boston-manhunt/
From Goldman Sachs To Canada To UK
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/18/bank-england-carney-uk-crisis-country
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Saturday, April 20, 2013
BRIEFS
A recent furore erupted over a spreadsheet error involving the work of two Harvard economists whose findings stated that the debt ratio to GDP matters.
Debt, they concluded, was a drag on future growth.
The findings were a tough swallow for liberal Keynesian economists and a windfall so to speak for those who want more stringent fiscal policies.
So what do you think happened? Three liberal, Keynesian-bred economists from the University of Massachusetts reviewed the data and found a spreadsheet error.
How many spreadsheet generated documents have errors? Well, here's a link.
What is egregious is the three used the error to attack other findings of the report that were in no way related to the error. The lead UMASS economist has close ties to the Obama administration which openly opposes any real fiscal austerity. The other two are wanna-bes.
A policy wonk, right or left, is just another wonk. They're not your friend.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/88-of-spreadsheets-have-errors-2013-04-17
****
What's the drug of your choice?
For most of us it's O2, oxygen. On Wall Street so claims British neuropyscopharmacologist David Nutt it's cocaine. And he says it contributed the the financial crisis, according to a CNBC report.
Before you bust up laughing and call the guy a weirdo ( and you thought we we're going to say nut), read the piece.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100650821
From what we read a glut of hogs may hit the market this year as feed prices fall. (See Thursday reads). Recall last year's US drought.
The quote below, given all the deflation worries making the rounds now, we'll see how prices turn out and who is more correct.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc., the operator of 622 restaurants across 42 states, expects food commodity costs to rise 4% to 5% this fiscal year, with pork among the biggest increases, Chief Financial Officer Lawrence E. Hyatt said on a conference call in February.
*
Debt, they concluded, was a drag on future growth.
The findings were a tough swallow for liberal Keynesian economists and a windfall so to speak for those who want more stringent fiscal policies.
So what do you think happened? Three liberal, Keynesian-bred economists from the University of Massachusetts reviewed the data and found a spreadsheet error.
How many spreadsheet generated documents have errors? Well, here's a link.
What is egregious is the three used the error to attack other findings of the report that were in no way related to the error. The lead UMASS economist has close ties to the Obama administration which openly opposes any real fiscal austerity. The other two are wanna-bes.
A policy wonk, right or left, is just another wonk. They're not your friend.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/88-of-spreadsheets-have-errors-2013-04-17
****
What's the drug of your choice?
For most of us it's O2, oxygen. On Wall Street so claims British neuropyscopharmacologist David Nutt it's cocaine. And he says it contributed the the financial crisis, according to a CNBC report.
Before you bust up laughing and call the guy a weirdo ( and you thought we we're going to say nut), read the piece.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100650821
From what we read a glut of hogs may hit the market this year as feed prices fall. (See Thursday reads). Recall last year's US drought.
The quote below, given all the deflation worries making the rounds now, we'll see how prices turn out and who is more correct.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc., the operator of 622 restaurants across 42 states, expects food commodity costs to rise 4% to 5% this fiscal year, with pork among the biggest increases, Chief Financial Officer Lawrence E. Hyatt said on a conference call in February.
*
AGING LEMONS AND DISTORTED EARNINGS
Everyone is biased except you and me. And I have my doubts about you.
Wall Street is one of the places on the planet more biased than a sports fan. You need to keep that in mind. Keep your eye on earnings. Do they beat or underperform expectations.
Back in the tech craziness days before the bottom fell out of what was then called TMT, technology, media, telecommunication, a noted tech darling beat earnings by one penny for something like 14 quarters in a row and Wall Street loved it, pushing the stock higher and higher.
Few among the masses apparently thought to ask what are the odds of a company with a huge market cap beating quarterly earnings by exactly one penny for 14 straight quarters. A lot like booze, good times and bull markets distort judgment.
Back then they were laying fibre everywhere. Companies like Montana Power, a stodgy utility provider to Global Crossing, one of the era's high fliers, got caught up in the fibre craze. Both are no more. Back then TMT was hotter than my old girlfriend.
Hot stocks are like hot water bottles. After a while they eventually lose their heat. Think Apple.
According to an article in the recent issue in Barron's, 67% of companies beat the lowest estimate on their earnings, a figure above the usual 63% average. Revenue, however, is another story. Only 43% beat their revenue benchmark well down from the 62% average.
So what's the take home lesson? Cost-cutting. That''s what firms do in slow times. And that leads to the next question: How much more excess can they squeeze from that aging lemon?
Friday, April 19, 2013
TAKE WHAT THEY GIVE
There's an old saw take what they give you.
Right now the market is focused on the possibility of another slowdown or even slipping back into a recession. It's a global concern.
Commodities in general and metals and mining in particular, that's what the market disdains now. And hydrocarbons. Could there be a trap here? Of course. Life's full of traps.
But even hydrocarbon haters like Jeremy Grantham, a UK transplant who's investment strategist at Grantham, Mayo and van Otto (CMO ), a Boston asset management firm, admits in a recent interview are holding onto their hydrocarbons.
Grantham's a big climate change believer, a guy who like a lot zealous converts thinks his facts are the only real facts. That he admits to holding onto his hydrocarbons is more about hedging than honesty or conviction.
Ask yourself these questions. What is all the easy-money policy about and what do all these central bankers want? A recovery. Without energy recoveries are DOA.
If you think no recovery will ever occur, you might want to sell or short hydrocarbons. Or if you think another recovery is just a matter of when, you might start entertaining the prospect of taking what they give you.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2013/apr/16/jeremy-grantham-food-oil-capitalism
Right now the market is focused on the possibility of another slowdown or even slipping back into a recession. It's a global concern.
Commodities in general and metals and mining in particular, that's what the market disdains now. And hydrocarbons. Could there be a trap here? Of course. Life's full of traps.
But even hydrocarbon haters like Jeremy Grantham, a UK transplant who's investment strategist at Grantham, Mayo and van Otto (CMO ), a Boston asset management firm, admits in a recent interview are holding onto their hydrocarbons.
Grantham's a big climate change believer, a guy who like a lot zealous converts thinks his facts are the only real facts. That he admits to holding onto his hydrocarbons is more about hedging than honesty or conviction.
Ask yourself these questions. What is all the easy-money policy about and what do all these central bankers want? A recovery. Without energy recoveries are DOA.
If you think no recovery will ever occur, you might want to sell or short hydrocarbons. Or if you think another recovery is just a matter of when, you might start entertaining the prospect of taking what they give you.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2013/apr/16/jeremy-grantham-food-oil-capitalism
THE OTHER FRIDAY READ
GOLDMAN SACHS RECEIVES FOMC MINUTES EARLY
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/don-t-trust-market-not-alone-good-reason-151040450.html
YOUR ZIP CODE OR PRIVACY
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/18/pf/data-privacy/index.html
ONLINE HEATS UP
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-socialmedia-behaviour-survey-idUSBRE9390TO20130410
LOOKS AS IF OFFLINE IS HEATING UP TOO
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/4/14/europes-stark-choice-resignation-or-revolution.html
MORPHING KNOWS NO BOUNDARIES
http://www.burtprelutsky.com/
MORPH IS TO GOAL AS
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/guest-post-goal-destroy-all-constitutional-culture
FOR AWHILE
A friend who really liked the ladies told us years ago, it's not what comes before, but after the but that counts, as in: "You're a really nice guy, but......."
It turns out over the years that's been a pretty decent philosophy when it comes to making money in the market.
Run a little test the next few weeks and count how many negative headlines you see about metals and mining stocks. Now this isn't a spinoff of the noted magazine cover indicator. It's a necessary precursor.
Pundits love to be right. And so does nearly everyone else. People also like confirmation. And that's fine. It's a plausible, understandable character flaw.
Confirmation and loneliness are polar opposites. Depending on your viewpoint both can make you feel good. We usually feel best when we're the loneliest. And we have a feeling we're going to be feeling that way about certain segments of the market for a while.
If we're really, really lucky for a while will translate into just enough time to build a nice position before the unexpected happens.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/don-t-trust-market-not-alone-good-reason-151040450.html
YOUR ZIP CODE OR PRIVACY
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/18/pf/data-privacy/index.html
ONLINE HEATS UP
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-socialmedia-behaviour-survey-idUSBRE9390TO20130410
LOOKS AS IF OFFLINE IS HEATING UP TOO
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/4/14/europes-stark-choice-resignation-or-revolution.html
MORPHING KNOWS NO BOUNDARIES
http://www.burtprelutsky.com/
MORPH IS TO GOAL AS
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/guest-post-goal-destroy-all-constitutional-culture
FOR AWHILE
A friend who really liked the ladies told us years ago, it's not what comes before, but after the but that counts, as in: "You're a really nice guy, but......."
It turns out over the years that's been a pretty decent philosophy when it comes to making money in the market.
Run a little test the next few weeks and count how many negative headlines you see about metals and mining stocks. Now this isn't a spinoff of the noted magazine cover indicator. It's a necessary precursor.
Pundits love to be right. And so does nearly everyone else. People also like confirmation. And that's fine. It's a plausible, understandable character flaw.
Confirmation and loneliness are polar opposites. Depending on your viewpoint both can make you feel good. We usually feel best when we're the loneliest. And we have a feeling we're going to be feeling that way about certain segments of the market for a while.
If we're really, really lucky for a while will translate into just enough time to build a nice position before the unexpected happens.
FRIDAY GOLD READ
SURE THEY DID
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/18/how-goldman-saw-the-gold-crash-coming-that-others-missed/
FORBES PIPES IN
http://www.moneynews.com/newswidget/Forbes-gold-Fed-economy/2013/04/17/id/499985?promo_code=F492-1&utm_source=Test_Newsmax_Feed&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1
BUFFETT PIPES IN
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/buffett-mocking-gold-sidesteps-slump-as-he-bets-on-stocks.html
GOLD IS BUSTED
http://chartsetcetera.blogspot.com/2013/04/gold-is-broken.html
COIN SALES SOAR AS PRICES FALL
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324493704578428332095974800.html?mod=WSJ_WorldMarkets_LeadStory
MINERS HAVE BIGGER ISSUES
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/miners-have-bigger-issues-than-gold-prices/
MINERS MISS OUT
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324763404578428803208832248.html?KEYWORDS=HEARD+ON+THE+STREET
WHERE ARE WE NOW
http://markdow.tumblr.com/post/48094365440/gold-and-silver-where-do-we-go-from-here
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/18/how-goldman-saw-the-gold-crash-coming-that-others-missed/
FORBES PIPES IN
http://www.moneynews.com/newswidget/Forbes-gold-Fed-economy/2013/04/17/id/499985?promo_code=F492-1&utm_source=Test_Newsmax_Feed&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1
BUFFETT PIPES IN
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/buffett-mocking-gold-sidesteps-slump-as-he-bets-on-stocks.html
GOLD IS BUSTED
http://chartsetcetera.blogspot.com/2013/04/gold-is-broken.html
COIN SALES SOAR AS PRICES FALL
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324493704578428332095974800.html?mod=WSJ_WorldMarkets_LeadStory
MINERS HAVE BIGGER ISSUES
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/miners-have-bigger-issues-than-gold-prices/
MINERS MISS OUT
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324763404578428803208832248.html?KEYWORDS=HEARD+ON+THE+STREET
WHERE ARE WE NOW
http://markdow.tumblr.com/post/48094365440/gold-and-silver-where-do-we-go-from-here
EMBARGOED
Goldman Sachs was one of several that received copy of FOMC minutes 19 hours before anyone else.
Some quotes here about embargoes.
http://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/
Some quotes here about embargoes.
http://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/
Thursday, April 18, 2013
BEN FRANKLIN AND THE IMF
Here's a headline from a story in yesterday's WSJ: "IMF Renews Push Against Austerity."
The first paragraph, as it should, pretty much says it all.
"Seeking to keep a fragile global recovery on track, the IMF called on countries that can afford it--including the U.S. and Great Britain--to slow the pace of their austerity measures."
Forget horses. Most of these so-called leaders around the globe would give up their fiefdoms for some growth. Well, maybe that's a bit too strong. These folks never give up anything, especially anything so lucrative and cushy.
But it's safe to say they're feeling some pressure, something the IMF is doing all in it bureaucratic power to ablate.
In its semi-annual report on growth, the fund warned that across the board cuts, referring to sequester, would be a mistake leading to slower growth. They labeled it the "wrong way" to shrink the budget deficit.
Then they rolled out a few their favorite code terms. One of them is targeted reductions. Most likely in their vernacular cuts is too harsh, too graphic, too exact. These folks thrive on wiggle room.
It's their bureaucratic hyperbaric chamber. Like Count Dracula that's where they spend most of their time. Cuts the fund noted should take place further down the road. They failed to name the road. But a decent guess might be: Never Lane or Circle Drive.
Keep in mind the IMF is home to more bureaucrats than a national political party convention. Fiscal cuts equals fewer bureaucrat jobs and fewer lush benefits. Slowing or halting across the board cuts is bureaucratic code speak for not right now.
A large fortune awaits some creative entrepreneurial soul who comes out with the first video game called: "Advance the Can." Every bureaucrat on the planet will want one.
If only Ben Franklin were still among us. Ole Ben was known for many things, including his aphorisms. Here's one obviously most bureaucrats never heard: "A stitch in time saves nine."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323346304578426502903053768.html
The first paragraph, as it should, pretty much says it all.
"Seeking to keep a fragile global recovery on track, the IMF called on countries that can afford it--including the U.S. and Great Britain--to slow the pace of their austerity measures."
Forget horses. Most of these so-called leaders around the globe would give up their fiefdoms for some growth. Well, maybe that's a bit too strong. These folks never give up anything, especially anything so lucrative and cushy.
But it's safe to say they're feeling some pressure, something the IMF is doing all in it bureaucratic power to ablate.
In its semi-annual report on growth, the fund warned that across the board cuts, referring to sequester, would be a mistake leading to slower growth. They labeled it the "wrong way" to shrink the budget deficit.
Then they rolled out a few their favorite code terms. One of them is targeted reductions. Most likely in their vernacular cuts is too harsh, too graphic, too exact. These folks thrive on wiggle room.
It's their bureaucratic hyperbaric chamber. Like Count Dracula that's where they spend most of their time. Cuts the fund noted should take place further down the road. They failed to name the road. But a decent guess might be: Never Lane or Circle Drive.
Keep in mind the IMF is home to more bureaucrats than a national political party convention. Fiscal cuts equals fewer bureaucrat jobs and fewer lush benefits. Slowing or halting across the board cuts is bureaucratic code speak for not right now.
A large fortune awaits some creative entrepreneurial soul who comes out with the first video game called: "Advance the Can." Every bureaucrat on the planet will want one.
If only Ben Franklin were still among us. Ole Ben was known for many things, including his aphorisms. Here's one obviously most bureaucrats never heard: "A stitch in time saves nine."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323346304578426502903053768.html
THURSDAY READS
The Gloom About Gold Piles Up
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/miners-have-bigger-issues-than-gold-prices/
Change In Route
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Keystone-XL-Route-Change-Puts-Environmentalists-on-the-Back-Foot.html
Hog Glut http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/17/hog-glut-gains-as-us-exports-drop-most-in-decade?ref=hp&t=commodities
A Bite From Apple
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Apple2527s-Problem-With-iPhone-Numbers-tech/4/17/2013/id/49303
Alaska Says It's Back http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/business/energy-environment/alaska-grants-a-tax-break-to-oil-companies.html?_r=0
Muni Downgrade Possible
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-may-downgrade-125-billion-in-muni-debt-2013-04-17
Scientists Reverse Memory Loss In Brain Cells
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/04/130417164451.htm
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/miners-have-bigger-issues-than-gold-prices/
Change In Route
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Keystone-XL-Route-Change-Puts-Environmentalists-on-the-Back-Foot.html
Hog Glut http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/17/hog-glut-gains-as-us-exports-drop-most-in-decade?ref=hp&t=commodities
A Bite From Apple
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Apple2527s-Problem-With-iPhone-Numbers-tech/4/17/2013/id/49303
Alaska Says It's Back http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/business/energy-environment/alaska-grants-a-tax-break-to-oil-companies.html?_r=0
Muni Downgrade Possible
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-may-downgrade-125-billion-in-muni-debt-2013-04-17
Scientists Reverse Memory Loss In Brain Cells
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/04/130417164451.htm
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
IT AIN'T MONETARY POLICY
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann in an interview today with the WSJ floated the notion EU recovery could take 10 years.
It obviously wasn't something Europe's politically elite wanted to hear. It also sent a shot across the bow of those leaders who have recently suggested the EU's problems were mostly rear-view mirror.
Hardly a single interplanetary soul isn't aware such could mean: hello Japan, not a pleasant table setting to enjoy a good meal.
Weidmann further suggested leaders needed to step up by overhauling some things, an oblique reference many believe to the fiscal train wreck that the EU is, and make funds available to small businesses.
Weidmann concluded that he didn't think monetary policy "is the key."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324493704578428552244471438.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
It obviously wasn't something Europe's politically elite wanted to hear. It also sent a shot across the bow of those leaders who have recently suggested the EU's problems were mostly rear-view mirror.
Hardly a single interplanetary soul isn't aware such could mean: hello Japan, not a pleasant table setting to enjoy a good meal.
Weidmann further suggested leaders needed to step up by overhauling some things, an oblique reference many believe to the fiscal train wreck that the EU is, and make funds available to small businesses.
Weidmann concluded that he didn't think monetary policy "is the key."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324493704578428552244471438.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
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