Thursday, February 27, 2014

HOUSEHOLD SPENDING

Here is an interesting read about how American households spend their money that's worth a look.

It turns out there's not much difference between the haves and the have nots
http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/02/great-graphic-disparity-in-wealth-and.html

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

HELMET TIME

Since 1987 when we first got a taste of "excessive exuberance" king, Sir Alan, to the recent departure of Big Ben, the Helicopter Commander, economic policy at the Federal Reserve has been a treasure trove of material for stand-up comedians.

So the question arises: What can investors look for in the future staring down the barrel of this latest QE-driven big bull market? Though we didn't coin the term, but it's probably appropriate--the Janet effect--as paper assets continue to do well despite climbing the noted wall of ugliness.


Several years ago just before the Rodney King-inspired LA riots broke out, a friend and I went out jogging after work for our usual four mile run. As we headed back into the building ( We had no idea what was happening just a few miles away.), one of the evening janitors stopped us in the deserted hallway with a chuckle and: " It's gonna be helmet time tonight."

And sooner or later it's gonna be helmet time for this market.


Tuesday, February 25, 2014

CLUELESS

Lots of folks believe the Federal Reserve people haven't got a clue. Even the most perfunctory study of the Fed's history would pretty much substantiate that. It's one of those facts that hit you straight between your financial goal posts. 

Further evidence comes from the recently released 2008 Fed minutes. Trust these guys and gals at your own peril. 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-indicators-to-help-spot-the-next-crisis-2014-02-21

----

Monday, February 24, 2014

SCAMS BY ANY OTHER NAME

Scams are still scams, high tech, low tech, central bank, Wall Street or otherwise.

Look no further than your: "We're from the government and we're here to help you." We'd use the term succor, but that most likely would get us in trouble with the protection police. With the kind of protection we refer to here in the listed link, given a choice, most of us would say: "Protection? We don't need no stinking protection."
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/2/22/why-the-government-wants-to-shortchange-american-seniors.html


Saturday, February 22, 2014

WEATHER

Whether your pocketbook will weather the Western drought that is hitting central California particularly hard is the question.

Much of California cattle is grass fed. The area grows large amounts of pecans, nuts, lettuce and other veggies. See the recent issue of Barron's and here's a link to another reference:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-farm-drought-crisis-deepens-2014-02-22

Friday, February 21, 2014

FRESH AIR

Every once in a while a bit of fresh air blows in from some unexpected source. Here's one that could have serious ramifications should it become fact. Like the old saying: prayer sometimes gets answered. 

Either way it's the first of what could be a volley across the political bows of politicians across America.

Plan to divide California into 6 states gets closer to vote


A prominent Silicon Valley investor’s proposal to split California into six separate states has moved one step closer to getting on a ballot for vote.
The state has given venture capitalist Tim Draper the green light to begin collecting signatures for a petition to break apart the state. Draper, who describes California as too big to manage and essentially ungovernable, now has until July 18 to collect 807,615 signatures for a ballot initiative that could reach voters by November 2016.
Draper, whose bets on Skype and Hotmail have made him a billionaire, says “vast parts of our state are poorly served by a representative government,” according to his initiative.
“It is more and more difficult for Sacramento to keep up with the social issues from the various regions of California,” Draper told ABC News. “With six Californias, people will be closer to their state governments, and states can get a refresh.”
His proposal calls for one of the states to be called Silicon Valley, which would include San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa and San Francisco counties, as well as San Benito, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties.
The other states he’s proposing are Northern California, Southern California, Central California, Western California and Jefferson.
Proposals have surfaced over the years over whether the state should be split up.
“It’s certainly fun to talk about,” Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at California State University, Los Angeles, told the Associated Press. However,“its prospects are nil.”
Even if the measure passes, Congress, under the U.S. Constitution, would have final say on six states. Six individual states would give California 12 Senate seats.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

THE TREND IS SUPPOSED TO BE

The tend is supposed to be one's friend, at least in the market.

But much depends on who's setting the trend. A recent report from the left-leaning think tank, the Brooking Institute, about the so-called growing inequality gap between the rich and the poor ain't "so profound or uniform."

With a smidgen of media honesty the same could be said for one of the other big boondoggles of our time, global warming.
http://m.thefiscaltimes.com/fiscaltimes/#!/entry/brookings-study-downplays-income-inequality-gap,530663c9025312186cd40fc5

AT IT AGAIN

Well, we're at it again. Back from the economic wilderness, making some decent gains along the way managing our own accounts. Our format will most likely be a little simpler, briefer this time. We hope some of you will join us.

Monday, August 19, 2013

INDICATORS


collapsing stock market - 

When it comes to indicators, it's a mixed bag.

The stock market as nearly everyone knows has been on a tear so far this year, up 15% even with the recent downturn.Will it continue or is a nasty correction or even perhaps a bear market just around the economic bend.

Markets supposedly climb a worry wall. Some indicators are getting better like manufacturing and the trade deficit. If last week was any indication, investors might want to check for weakening signs.

Indicators, though highly fallible, come in  all types--advance-declines, new highs-new lows, market breath, to name a few. Momentum is another well-watched indicator.

One such is the RSI or relative strength index. Simply put, it measures size and strength on days when stocks go up. Though it is considered a technical indicator, it has a sentiment component--that is, what and how people are feeling about the market.

The National Association of Home Builders survey hit the airways last week shedding some so-called good light on an otherwise gloomy scene.

But there may be--and we stress may be--more diluting its value as an indicator than just the general fear about the Federal Reserve diluting the contents of its punch bowl.  
__________