Thursday, April 7, 2016

OVERNIGHT

The yen and the export disaster. Sounds like a good title for a fairy tale. But it's no fairy tale as the yen moved to  beak a multiple year and a half high against the dollar, putting the skids to Japan's exporters.

It wasn't supposed to happen, not in the negative interest rate environment Japanese officials pushed through in late January. It was really another indirect play on beggar thy neighbor in what most in the MSM fail to admit, a currency tussle. It was suppose to work. So far it hasn't. So far it's main effect has been to further depress investor confidence in central bankers in general and Abernonics in particular.

So if your name is Honda, Sony or Toyota you might start feeling pain soon. The effect on the Nikkei 225 has been pretty obvious, down more than eight percent in the past week.

Asian shares extended losses to three-week lows on Friday, while the yen soared to a 17-month high against the dollar as investors bet Japan would be hard pressed to drive down its currency in the face of widespread foreign opposition. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacifc shares outside Japan dropped 0.5% off nearly 1% for the week, Reuters reported.

Nikkei .N225 pared earlier losses to near-two-month lows to trade 0.6 percent lower, with financials under pressure. It's on track for a decline of 3.1 percent for the week.

China's Shanghai Composite index .SSEC slid 0.9 percent, poised for a similar drop for the week. The CSI 300 .CSI300 was down 0.8 percent, set for a 1.2 percent weekly decline. Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI slipped 0.7 percent, headed for 1.9 percent loss for the week. 

Bank shares led losses in Europe and the U.S. markets on Thursday, amid talk of more layoffs and cutbacks planned by Europe's major lenders as they struggle with zero rates.

The U.S. S&P 500 Index .SPX lost 1.2 percent, with financial shares .SPSY falling 1.9 percent. In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 closed down 0.8 percent, hurt by a drop of more than 2 percent in financials.
 
The yen strengthened to 107.67 to the dollar on Thursday, its highest since October 2014, and last stood at 108.64, heading for a weekly gain of 2.6 percent.
The dollar index .DXY, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six rival currencies, was up about 0.1 percent at 94.583, poised for a flat weekly performance.
The euro EUR= also hit a six-month high of $1.1454 the previous day and last fetched $1.1361, set to end the week up 0.2 percent.

On the other hand, commodity-linked currencies and many emerging economy currencies stepped back from recent multi-month highs as risk-averse mood took hold on investors.
 

The Australian dollar traded at $0.7533 AUD=D4, having fallen 1.3 percent on Thursday.
In the commodities market, copper suffered its biggest fall in more than six months on Thursday, slumping 2.8 percent on the day and hitting a six-week low of $4,631 a tonne.



HERE'S THE FEAR

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
Here's the fear.

The Fed's March minutes were scanned and re-scanned Wednesday looking for clues--anything-- to reveal where, when and by how much interest rates are changing, if indeed they are changing.

The consensus seems to be the Fed will hold back until the global economy picks up. And that's the fear few want to face, especially the MSM myrmidons who constantly shill for the idea that central bankers know what they're doing. They don't.

What if questions are usually too scary, too unpalatable. Up to now they've perceived that at some point--tipping, inflection, magical or whatever--the global economy will hit it and things will turn around like its always done before. But if you start with a false premise and expect your conclusion to be anything but false, well, you get the idea.

The false premise is the Yellens, Draghis, Carneys of the central banking world know what they're doing. They don't. And neither does anyone else for that matter. The "like before" has never been anything magical, just the usual papering over effects just like now. The infrastructure's rotten to its core, but the curb appeal covers many of the blemishes.

On the Internet you will find more than one article these days about celebrities--mostly attractive women--swim suit models and the like showing what they really look like without the make-up. Few people realize let alone know what the real global economy looks like without all the phony make-up. Think Fox News analyst Megyn Kelly. Mean statement? No. Factual one? Yes.

Here's what they fear. China, an economy that's wearing a lot of phony government applied make-up. So the Fed cuts a deal at the February G20 meeting. It's a highly deceptive, arrogant  and dishonest deal. Suddenly, the Fed changes from its previously prideful announcements about never deviating from its two mandates, jobs and inflation. Keep in mind those are domestic jobs and inflation.

Forget transparency.That's never going to happen. Show me a transparent government and I'll show you a government no longer governing anything or anybody. One of the things those recently released "Panama Papers"proved is make-up, like a lot of things, comes in different packages.

Forget transparency. That's the emperor without make-up. And now you know the fear.

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

STILL SOME PROFITS THERE


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
The ploy is usually almost always the same. They're from the government or some quasi-government agency and they're here to help (protect) you. And just as usually that means getting those bad boys and girls who choose to play outside the foul lines. Their foul lines.

One such quasi-government clutch is the International Monetary Fund or IMF. They thrive on spreading bad news so you will feel an urgency to keep this behemoth bureaucratic den of deception and international loan sharks around. Their leader is Christine LeGarde.

Here's an excerpt that discusses the situation better than we might from thedailybell.com/news-analysis/protect-yourself-against-those-running-the-worlds-economy-for-your-benefit

The IMF is back at work spreading fear. That’s not what we are supposed to think of course. We’re supposed to believe that the IMF has our best interests at heart and that its ranks are filled with caring, decent people.
But in this article we want to review important financial facilities along with the banking elite itself to reemphasize that they are not what they seem.
We’ll remind you of why they are not to be trusted and how the current economic system worldwide has been rigged to collapse, and to take you down with it.
The IMF, the World Bank, the Bank for International Settlements, the larger central banks and top banking elites are all complicit.
In the world of high finance, nothing is as it seems. Each element in engaged in subtle interplay with the others. The goal is always destabilization along with the ruin of the middle classes and the enrichment of just a few, worldwide.
This has been going on since the Great Depression and then again since the end of World War II.
Let’s examine main players.
The IMF is part of a financial tag-team that smashes whole countries on the shoals of sovereign debt. First the World Bank lends to irresponsible government leaders and then the IMF offers additional funds.
But those funds come at a price. The IMF insists on imposing high taxes on already impoverished people. And it often forces countries to sell off valuable national enterprises to Western multinationals.
The IMF and the World Bank deal with political leaders and business tycoons. Central banks have a different role to play and the largest ones are directly involved in fine-tuning the world’s monetary system.
Secret deals are a constant occurrence when it comes to the world’s central-banks. That’s because central banking is a legalized monopoly and central bankers are supposed to conspire together. The Bank for International Settlements acts like a Mafioso Kingpin, supervising the secret arrangements.
The most recent secret deal was negotiated in February at the G20 meeting. Here, top central bank officials agreed to boost the Chinese economy via interest rate manipulation.
It was hoped this would help the doomed Chinese economy while not further damaging Western economies. In fact, the damage from decades of massive credit flows has so injured the world’s economy that no matter what central bankers do, it’s not going to be any good.
Ideally, they would step out of the way. But they won’t. They’ll just make things worse.
Their remedies are laughably simplistic anyway. They either print money or they don’t.
If they print money by creating more credit, then they will contribute to asset bubbles. If they tighten, they will puncture those bubbles prematurely and add trillions in further debt to a world already catastrophically over leveraged.
One country that is over leveraged to the point of bankruptcy is Greece. Just recently a transcript leaked showing top IMF officials mulling over some sort of “economic event” that would destabilize Greece and force Germany back to the negotiating table.
What arrogance! Powerful individuals in high places ought not to be conspiring to make others miserable  – even for the cause of economic stability.
But the Greek controversy was nearly extinguished by the most recent leak, a gargantuan one of more than ten million emails hacked from a Panamanian law firm.
The leak has come in for an enormous amount of scrutiny because it exposed a number of very important politicians and business people to various kinds of legal jeopardy including tax evasion charges.
As it has turned out, many of the individuals exposed seem in some sense opposed to the current Western-supervised financial system or its leading interests. In other words, the leak was a titanic false flag aimed at attacking enemies of transnational leadership facilities.
These two recent leaks show us once again how closely the world is controlled at the top. IMF officials can plot the further ruination of a whole country. And elite banking interests apparently can cause a financial law firm to be hacked with such exquisite accuracy that their most serious foes are targeted.
Just as world leaders cannot be trusted, neither can markets themselves.
As we can see from the IMF’s warning at the beginning of this article, Asian markets are fragile and on a downward course.
And recently, Business Insider posted an article explaining that, “One of the best signals in the stock market is saying it may be time to sell.”
This is the trailing 12-month price-to-earnings multiple.  Once stocks in aggregate looked cheap. Now, we learn, “based on the same indicator, it looks as if the market is nearing the top.”
The article concludes, “stay tuned.” But we don’t need to. We already know how this story ends. Badly for you, better for a handful of others.

The response in Iceland was the correct one. But there's a larger point here as we pointed out in our recent blog,SO WHICH IS IT? What deal was cut?  If you think such is an isolated event, know that you do so at your own peril.

Greed is about the fear of missing out on more, not about taking some profits. The financial shock jockey, the Howard Stern of this presidential election, The Donald, has it right. Don't put any more money into this market. In fact, take some of the table while there's still some profits there.




SOME QUESTONS FOR YOU

Here's a question for you irrespective of your age: Is the world more screwed up today, more dangerous than any time in your recall?

Now that covers a lot of ground from countries facing unsustainable debt obligations to wars and famine, elections and the like. It's also a question you need to ask and answer for yourself if your considering buying gold.

Gold is like the wayward one in a family; it gets a lot of discussion, not much respect. Is it or does it, for example, provide a store of value and if so against what? If you're a fiat currency fan, you probable have an attitude when it comes to gold.

People who don't like it argue it doesn't pay or yield any return while your holding it. That sounds much like one of my ex-girl friends. If you know how many central banks today around the globe have invoked negative interest rates in an attempt to either avoid or stimulate their economies from a slowdown in growth, does gold return anything in those situation? and what about your check books and savings accounts? Or those COLAs for social security recipients for the next two years?

Are gold bugs, a pejorative term to be sure, just some looney tooney farts, mostly old and out of touch like that term and those who toss it around suggest?  Would you bother to pick it up if you found a piece laying on the ground? Would those who say it's a fraud compared to paper assets the world now reveres bother to pick it up?

We will spare you all the shopworn debates about whether it's a safe haven, yields anything, storage costs and the rest. What we have noticed for some time now, fewer and fewer bother to pick up pennies when they come across them in the street.

Are pennies symbolic of fiat currencies? A fellow named Ben Franklin once thought so much of them, he argued one saved is one earned. Now Ben's been missing for a longtime, but plenty of others who once subscribed to that belief are still around. It goes by another name, purchasing power.

How many nickels and dimes and quarters and fifty cent pieces play an intricate part in your financial world today?  Better yet, when is the last time you even saw a fifty cent piece?  There was a time when they had actual silver in them and they made a distinctive ringing sound when dropped on the table or floor. If you can find one around today drop it and see what sound it makes.That should tell you something about inflation and if there's really any around.

Does the piece of paper you hold called an insurance policy on your abode or your car pay anything year after year you keep buying it unless something you never want to happen happens? We call those insurance policies put options. Also decaying assets. They have a time limit, like you and me. And they usually yield nothing in the way of income and wind up going to zero, something gold in your lifetime or mine or even in its history has never done.

Those policies with few exceptions are pretty illiquid. You might not like the offered price, but we're willing to bet push versus shove time, you could get something for that gold. Not so sure about those policies. So the next time you read some wanna be pundit citing the reasons gold isn't worth holding, doesn't yield anything and never grows in value like fiat assets, think about some of these questions.

And, oh yea, you might want to see if any of those coins we mentioned have returned to their previous glamour and place in your daily financial world. We're willing to bet some gold with you--if you have any--that they haven't.

The stock market topped out in 1929 in August. The real damage didn't start until October of that year. Though there were some rallies along the way off the 1932 nadir, it took 25 years before the market surpassed it August 1929 Dow high.  Back then there was no S&P 500. A lot of cemeteries got filled up during that time.

In the early 1980s when gold hit its high above $800 an ounce, the U.S. Mint as is its wont floated some commemorative one ounce gold coins named after an American Indian lady. Lots of people purchased them for their gold content at $700. $690, $550 $300 right on down to where the price of gold bottomed years later in the $200 range.

It took quite a while before gold started up again, settling into what became a 12 year bull run. We haven't priced what a one ounce set of those coins goes for today based on just their gold value let alone any added collector value they night have. But we're willing to bet if any of those people are still around most of them are more than even given gold's current price just above $1200 an ounce.

In this same 1980s there was something called the Asian Tigers, the most famous of which was the Japanese Nikkei. It just kept rising and though it traded at nearly 40,000 at its top, perceived wisdom frequently said at the time 80,000 was a realistic top. In fact, there was what many bull markets illustrate near their end an air of arrogance and certainty.

http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/japan-stock-market.png?s=nky&v=201604060830n&d1=19160101&d2=20161231

  http://www.aboutinflation.com/_/rsrc/1371880354161/inflation-adjusted-charts/world-indices-inflation-adjusted-charts/nikkei-225-index-inflation-adjusted/Nikkei_225_Index_Inflation_Adjusted_Historical_Chart_May_2013.png Japan NIKKEI 225 Index decreased 18 points or 0.11% to 15715 on Wednesday April 6 from 15733 in the previous trading session. Japan NIKKEI 225 Index lost 3926 points or 19.99 percent during the last 12 months from 19,640.54 points in April of 2015. Historically, the Japan NIKKEI 225 Stock Market Index reached an all time high of 38915.87 in December of 1989 and a record low of 85.25 in July of 1950.

As you can see the old Nikkei high hasn't been exceeded since, a 25 year period so far. Land is scarce in Japan. But you get the idea about burials along the way of those waiting to get even.

As for that yellow metal, here's a look at it.

http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/commodity-gold.png?s=xauusd&v=201604061656n&d1=19160101&d2=20161231 

 

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/gold/Gold_inflation.jpg 

Here a preface to the next chart.
If you’re someone who’s skeptical of government-reported numbers, you’ll find the following chart confirms your suspicions. And if you’re someone who’s attracted to value, you’ll love the chart.   

There is a lot of criticism of the government’s CPI number simply because it doesn’t really seem to reflect what the average person experiences. Even with gas prices in decline, other segments of our society have seen prices accelerate. Healthcare and college costs are two biggies, rising far more than the current 0.2% reading. And many food items have scary trajectories—ground beef has more than doubled since 2010.

Meanwhile, the gold price has fallen by roughly a third over the past three-plus years and been flat for the past four to five months. But is it a good value at current prices?
Since 1980, the CPI formula has been modified at least a dozen times. Heck, they even implemented a new “estimation system” this year. Most nongovernment economists (like you and I) think those changes have made the reading less accurate, not more. So I asked John Williams of Shadow Stats to calculate the gold price in March 2015 dollars (the latest data available) based on the CPI-U formula from 1980.
Here’s what he found.

https://d1w116sruyx1mf.cloudfront.net/ee-assets/channels/article_default/150421InflationAdjustedGoldPriceUsing1980CPIFormula.png 

Casey is a known bear, but so what. Do you know any known bulls? MSM is full of them. In  reference to the above chart, we will draw the line with his last statement below and let you decide for yourself.

Adjusted for the 1980 inflation measure, the gold price is approaching its bear market low of 2001. In fact, gold is now below the 1975 price when it became legal to own it again! These data clearly show that when measured against a more realistic view of inflation, gold is dramatically undervalued.
And with total worldwide debt levels up by a whopping $57 trillion since the end of 2007, the need to own it is as important as ever. So if you're looking for a helping hand, look no further than the end of your own wrist.  Do your own research if you can. And don't forget to keep asking those questions. The purchasing power you preserve might be your own.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Tuesday, April 5, 2016

OVERNIGHT

One of investor fears in Japan has been the strong yen against the dollar.  The fear centered on Japan's attempt to weaken its currency and help trade its way to sounder economic times.

Overnight the yen came off a 17-month high against the buck causing more than some angst for investors and putting in question Abernomics after officials expressed reluctance to intervene to slow the currency's appreciation, sources said. Meanwhile, the Nikkei edged higher 0.3% to trade at 15,777.13 after dropping nearly 12% during the first quarter. The WSJ reported that: "The yen has held on to its gains despite warnings from Japanese officials that the country would not tolerate excessive strength in its currency."

The U.S markets didn't helps things out, falling for the second straight day as gold, Treasuries and the yen were perceived again as safe haven places. Oil finished the end of the day slightly higher, too.The quest for a safe haven also pushed yields on government bonds lower in the U.S.,UK and Germany.

Other issues weighing on the markets is first quarter earnings reports. In the U.S. analysts are expecting S&P 500 companies’ first-quarter earnings to fall 8.5% from the year-earlier period, according to FactSet.

Don't forget investors will be pouring over the Fed minutes tomorrow.

IT'S ABOUT THE MONEY.

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQciPyf_mbTZiq2XvkbVxB3sieK-8CzMfMWa40FIVXXIv_8TVRv-Q
Here's a bit of news for Rhode Island Democrat Senator Sheldon Whitehouse he might be interested in since he likes to use comparisons with those evil tobacco firms. The climate change zealot recently bragged about those state attorneys generals who nailed big tobacco to their PC cross to make a point in one of his screeds against the WSJ.

In the broad daylight heist of big tobacco companies California was one of the big hogs. Just how much of that settlement money, if any, found its way into the state's massive retirement fund is moot.

First you stick a gun in their ribs, vilify them and steal money, now after your less than sterling investment record you want make more money off them. That sounds like some bureaucrats. Most of the tobacco firms were driven off shore. That sounds like what happened to a lot of jobs.

But there's another irony here. California is one of the most angry ardent anti-smoking places on the planet, running ugly, hardcore media ads to ban smoking anywhere in the state. Oh yea, and that means beaches and your own backyard and bathroom..

Forget public health: it has always been about the money. And so, too, is the religion of climate change. Maybe someone should tip off the mayor of Chicago. He was recently looking for some retirement fund money.

Hello, Mr. Whitehouse.

cnbc.com/2016/04/04/calpers-could-put-money-back-into-tobacco-stocks

Monday, April 4, 2016

MIXED MESSAGES

Are Fed members this mixed up or is it just a ploy they're playing on the American people to keep them guessing?

Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengen spoke Monday, sending a mixed message from what Chair Janet Yellen just said a few days ago that settled markets and caused a rally in stocks. It wouldn't be the first time this happened. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan took great delight sending out mixed messages despite his incessant call for more transparency.

This is all the more reason the Fed should be put under tighter scrutiny and possible disbandment. It's pretty clear either this is a ploy or they have not got a clue as in one hand doesn't know what the other is doing. This from CNBC.
 Futures markets are wrong, and the Federal Reserve likely should hike rates sooner than they imply, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said Monday. 
 
In prepared remarks for a speech in Boston, Rosengren — a Federal Open Market Committee voter and historically one of its dovish members — also said markets are too slow in pricing in rate hikes, and that their path of hikes is too low. 

"A weak forecast doesn't seem to explain the path expected for the funds rate," he said in prepared remarks. "As I see it, the risks seem to be abating that problems from abroad would be severe enough to disrupt the U.S. recovery. Financial-market volatility has fallen, and most economic forecasts do not reflect expected large spillovers from continued headwinds from abroad."

The U.S. "has weathered foreign shocks quite well," Rosengren said, adding that the risks from abroad are easing overall. Those comments potentially stand in contrast to remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who last week pointed to weakened international conditions in explaining her cautious outlook. 

Rosengren, who is historically considered to be about as dovish as Yellen, said he expects a strong economy and full employment. He also said he expects inflation will rise gradually.
On Friday afternoon, markets were only pricing a 5 percent chance of a rate hike in April, according to CME Group data. As of Friday, the first month with a better-than-50-percent chance of a rate hike was September, according to CME Group. 

"With financial market volatility subsiding since earlier this year, it is to me surprising that the expected path of monetary policy embedded in futures markets is so low," Rosengren said Monday. 

It was only last Tuesday that Yellen sounded a dovish note in a speech, acknowledging that economic and financial conditions are in some respects less favorable now than in December.
In that speech, Yellen cited global concerns as one of the reasons behind her tepid economic outlook. And responding to a question after her remarks, Yellen said the "major thing that's changed" between December and March affecting the Fed's baseline outlook is "a slightly weaker projected pace of global growth." 

A dovish Fed left interest rates unchanged in March. In its statement, the FOMC noted that "global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks" to U.S. economic growth, and that inflation was "expected to remain low in the near term." 


 

OVERNIGHT

Stocks were down Tuesday in Japan as negative interest rates hit the banking sector coupled with falling energy price in the U.S. Oil traded around $35.32 and the yen 110.76. The Nikkei was off a little over 2% at 15,759.

Most other markets in the area were also down with the Hang Seng off 1.42%, the Australian and South Korean markets were also down. The Shanghai Composite Index was the only one heading higher in what has been a recent surprise gaining 6% over the past two months while the Nikkei has lost around 7% in that time.

Investors may be coming to realize that there is a limit to what central bankers can do with their wild schemes and that could well spell big trouble for markets going forward. Meanwhile, the Australian central bank held its interest rates at 2% and conflicting statements by members of the Federal Reserve since Chair Janet Yellen's dovish talk last week could also bode trouble for markets.

A further concern is the yen may be signaling less of a trade advantage in its export markets. Gold was higher

 

 

 



    IN THIS CASE, UNFORTUNATELY, IT'S BOTH

    https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSamD3BBbX6TAilFeCzfH4NF32JpTp6xmAl-YAOeeK7Rum97jlD
    There's an old saying that it takes one to know one.

    So it's a rare day when we would say anything favorable about the editorial staff at the WSJ especially in their zeal for all the wrong reasons to deny Trump should he legitimately gather the necessary votes to win nomination.

    Once again we're not supporters.

    But there's no shortage of zealots afoot, all at the ready to push their version of their perceived wisdom down your gullet. And one of the most obnoxious and most dangerous is Rhode Island Democrat Senator Sheldon Whitehouse.

    Apparently, the good public servant who spends much of his time genuflecting at the alter of climate change rather than doing his job of serving the people of the tiniest speck on the continent got into a urinating match with the WSJ over the Senator's religion, climate change, and the RICO Act.

    Now the Senator suffers from a common malady known as former attorneys general syndrome, you know the kind, the ones who are constantly trying to twist laws that were passed for one reason and use them to ensnare others by broadening their definition without the consent of the public. It's called how dare you differ with my truth.

    You can always tell a zealot; they never pass the smell test. It's funny. Even the quasi-government agency called the FDA rallies against physicians who use drugs that were approved for one reason but are indiscriminately used for others not FDA sanctioned. It's a safe bet the good Senator most likely approves of those actions.

    Now the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organization Act was passed to go after the so-called bad guys like thugs and mobsters, mafia guys who were successfully evading prosecution under laws already on the books. Apparently, Senator Whitehouse believes it should now be applied scientists and editorialists--not to mention ordinary folks--who question the validity of climate change.

    The WSJ called him out for trying "to 'stifle' political and scientific debate." Mr. Whitehouse apparently has suggested such to the Department of Justice. Here are Whitehouse's own words from a recent rant on the subject at Huffington Puff.  Read it for yourself. While you're reading it note his use of the term similarities of the two examples he cites.

    As someone who spent a good part of a professional career trying to get people off cigarettes even to the point of getting them banned from Federal Medical Centers where they were sold at deep discounts from the public market place, for Mr. Whitehouse to claim anyone who questioned the Surgeon General's data or questioned what was really a public stick-up of a major industry wasn't singled out is what your mother use to wash your mouth out with soap for telling.

    We note this because this is what dangerous zealots do, twist facts, revise history. Senator Whitehouse likes to recall some quotes from the past. Well, here's a few for him from the same periods. Recall, too, until recently it was labeled global warming, a quite specific term before it was conveniently changed.

    "The cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people in poor nations. It has already made food and fuel more precious, thus increasing the price of everything we buy. If it continues, and no strong measures are taken to deal with it, the cooling will cause world famine, world chaos, and probably world war, and this could all come by the year 2000."
    –Lowell Ponte, The Cooling, 1976.


    The facts have emerged, in recent years and months, from research into past ice ages. They imply 
    that the threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of 
    wholesale death and misery for mankind."
    –Nigel Calder, former editor of New Scientist and producer of scientific television documentaries, 
    "In the Grip of a New Ice Age," International Wildlife, July 1975.

    I believe that increasing global air pollution, through its effect on the reflectivity of the earth, is currently dominant and is responsible for the temperature decline of the past decade or two" Reid Bryson, "Environmental Roulette, Global Ecology: Readings Toward a Rational Strategy for Man, John P. Holdren and Paul R. Ehrlich, eds., 1971.

    At this point, the world's climatologists are agreed..Once the freeze starts, it will be too late."
    –Douglas Colligan, "Brace Yourself for Another Ice Age," Science Digest, February 1973.


    You should also note here that Paul R. Ehrlich is the Stanford professor who made a public television bet he lost but never paid about famines caused by population explosion. Here is the opening sentence from his panic-stricken, so-called expert-academic scientific perch in his book, The Population Bomb, in the late 1960s.  "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate .

    The person Erhlich bet with was another scientist of equal reputation and academic standing.They simply disagreed. And we now know who was incorrect.

    One reason is that such a suit by the Department of Justice under the Clinton and Bush 
    administrations was successful against the fraudulent industry enterprise to sow false doubt 
    about tobacco’s dangers (before the RICO suit was won by DOJ, the Journal had called it
     “abuse,” “hypocrisy,” and “a shakedown”). So there’s the little matter of this being the law.
    A second reason is that if there is indeed a core of deliberate fraud at the heart of the climate
     denial enterprise, no industry should be big enough to suppress investigation of that fraud. 
    Most of the writers I mentioned note similarities between the tobacco fraud scheme and the
     climate denial operation, as has the lawyer who won the tobacco lawsuit for DOJ; as
     apparently have more than a dozen state Attorneys General.

    (Does the same apply, Senator, if fraud is found on the part of scientific zealots
     pushing climate change?)
    Climate skeptics — people who “disagree” with me on the reality of climate change — are
     not the targets of such an investigation, any more than smokers or people who “disagreed” 
    with the Surgeon General were targets of the tobacco case. Those folks may very well be
     victims of the fraud, the dupes. Fraud investigations punish those who lie, knowing that
    they are lying, intending to fool others, and do it for money. No one should be too big to
     answer for that conduct.

    (Those who knowingly lie, intending to fool other and do it for money. Does this,
     Mr. Senator, include bureaucrats and politicians?)
    This is an important difference, and it’s the difference I’m talking about when I say 
    the Wall Street Journal editorial page is trying to saddle me with an argument I’m not 
    making because they don’t have a good response to the one I am. Frankly, all this makes
     it look like they are out to protect the fraudsters, by misleading regular people about 
    what such a lawsuit would do and continuing their long tradition of downplaying or denying 
    scientists’ warnings about the harms of industries’ products.

    (And here you have one of the favorite ploys of zealots, guilt by insinuation. 
    It's right up there with concrete terms like similarities.) 

    Like all zealots, Mr. Whitehouse is extremely selective in selecting his quotes 
    (Or at least his taxpayer staff  is!) and that's a two-way street and all the more 
    reason not to panic and stifle public debate without the threat of RICO 
    arbitrarily hanging over the heads of reputable scientists and decent citizens 
    in the public at large. 

    Governments' track record around the globe of jumping to serious 
    conclusions with serious unintended consequences and wasting serious 
    taxpayer money is hardly a shinning example for building public trust. 

    Zealots come in all sizes and shapes. One common characteristic is their attire. 
    Usually, it's either religious or political. In this case, unfortunately, it's
     both.