BRIEFS

We've talked about this sector before, so we won't labor the point. This article lists some of the reasons we would own parts of this sector before not after it rebounds. And it will rebound.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-reasons-why-resources-stocks-are-a-natural-bet-2013-05-16?pagenumber=2
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rle

Threat of Default": US hits debt limit on Saturday, but by using a slew of shuffle maneuvers, shell games, tricks, and devices, the US won't actually run out of money until "after Labor Day," Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Congress in a letter. In his previous statement, the US would be "okay until Labor Day." Today, he was more frantic. He begged Congress to get its act together and do something "sooner rather than later" to “remove the threat of default.” In its infinite wisdom, Congress had suspended the debt limit till May 18, rather than dealing with it. The debt, though still over the limit, declined in April and early May; tax extractions were fattened by asset bubbles. But since May 10, the debt has once again been rising.  
                                                                    Testosterone Pit
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One thing nobody seems to focus on is services inflation. It’s slower to turn both up and down. Services inflation got up to 4.7% in June 2008. It dropped below 2% in February 2009 and stayed below until August 2011. We’ve been mostly above since and reached a high of 2.9% in February 2013. The last two months have backed off to 2.6%. This compares to 0.5% for the regular CPI. Since November 2012, services inflation has been stronger than overall inflation. Maybe this is a good thing for an economy that’s 80-90% services and shows demand; but, I don’t really think so for an economy with a coincident index growth rate of 1.4%. If the Fed really want’s 2% inflation, they already have it for most of the economy. Why they focus on core and these other measures doesn’t make much sense.

                                           Daily Speculations

WEEKEND READS

More Confident http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/17/americans-most-optimistic-since-2007-as-stocks-sur?ref=hp

One House's Market Outlook http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704551504578487054194986208.html?mod=BOL_hps_oe#articleTabs_article%3D0

Quitting QE Risks
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/17/quitting-qe-whats-at-risk?ref=hp

Nervous About The Market?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2013/05/16/investing-at-all-time-highs/2169983/

Claim Not Supported By Facts http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/05/16/Data-Debunks-IRSs-Explanation-of-Extra-Scrutiny.aspx#page1

EU Running Out Of Oil http://www.energytribune.com/76816/the-world-is-not-running-out-of-oil-but-europe-is#sthash.phQcebbt.dpbs

Central Banks Buying Equities
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/clif-droke/when-central-banks-buy-stocks

More Deception?
http://news.investors.com/051713-656551-obama-exaggerated-spending-deficit-budget-cuts.htm?ref=HPLNews

JUST REMEMBER

In my younger and more vulnerable years my father gave me some advice that I've been turning over in my mind ever since.

"Whenever you feel like criticizing any one," he told me, "just remember that all the people in the world haven't had the advantages that you've had."
                                                                   Nick Carraway
                                                                   
Now that still another remake of F. Scott Fitzgerald's classic novel, The Great Gatsby, has hit theaters, it's interesting to reexamine some of the themes Fitzgerald covered. The link below discusses a few things not to do, though we might take exception to a couple of their points.

An important word in the above quote is vulnerable. In part this is certainly a story about losing one's vulnerability.  For those who haven't it might make the movie more enjoyable if you read the novel first.  

Though diversification is important, no less an investor than Warren Buffett called it "diworsification." Most fortunes are made through focus, not by spreading oneself too thin. That's part of the risk. It comes with concentration. But so does, for the most part, big reward.

http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/05/17/6-ways-to-ruin-your-life-gatsby-style/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-05-17&utm_medium=email

PAIN EXPENSE ANGUISH

Two of America's best known and largest institutions celebrate their 100th anniversary this year, the Internal Revenue Service and the Federal Reserve Bank.

In their time both have done enough damage to make a Stage Five Hurricane seem like a kindergarten party washed ashore.The bureaucrat-bloated, byzantine IRS has become the modern day bully on the block. 

With rules and regulations even they can't understand, the IRS has a long and sordid history of controversy, deceit and lawlessness. The recent uproar over politically-driven audits is just one example of American taxpayer abuse at the hands of a power-mad government agency running amuck. The links below shows several more for those interested.

It's too bad this story didn't hatch a bit later this year since National Bullying Awareness Week is set for November 17 - 23, 2013 with its Theme: "Stand Up! (to bullying)." Maybe then it would get the MSM attention it deserves.

Incompetence not bullying is the Federal Reserve Bank's forte. As one long-time observer once put it: "Many studies, formal and informal, have been made of the record of forecasting by economists, and it has been consistently abysmal."  

The Federal Reserve given all their so-called resources has hardly proved adept at seeing let alone heading off economic trouble at the pass. In fact, truth be told, these people have created far more trouble then they've resolved. Most of it at the pain, expense and anguish of the American consumer.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324715704578482823301630836.html?KEYWORDS=IRS+history+of+abuse

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/17/us-usa-tax-irs-scandals-idUSBRE94F16V20130517

FRIDAY READS

Importance Of Homework
http://touch.valuewalk.com/valuewalk/#!/entry/avoid-overreacting-to-trending-news-by-knowing-your-stocks,519550efda27f5d9d0c6a76d/2

President's Wealth Revealed
http://www.moneynews.com/newswidget/Obama-Investor-Cautious-Strategy/2013/05/15/id/504724?promo_code=F492-1&utm_source=Test_Newsmax_Feed&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1

Shine Gone?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/gold-seen-falling-to-1-100-an-ounce-in-a-year-by-credit-suisse.html

One Giant Step Nowhere
http://news.investors.com/business/051613-656433-walmart-highlights-fragile-economic-recovery.htm?ref=HPLNews

Is There A Surprise In Store Here?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/talk-of-fed-wind-down-grows-louder-2013-05-16

Gas Prices Up
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2013/05/16/midwest-great-lakes-regions-driving-national-gas-prices-higher/2166845/

10 THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW

1. Companies in the S&P 500 get 34% of their revenue outside US borders. 

2. Indexes tend to be overweighted in whatever’s been hot.

3. Parkinson said it all in his famous "Law": "Expenditures rise to meet income." 

4. Many studies, formal and informal, have been made of the record of forecasting by economists, and it has been consistently abysmal.

5. Inflation will be the path of least resistance politicians take in the end. It's part of their DNA.

6.  A 1776 quote from Adam Smith about what's notoriously known today as "kicking the can."

      

"To relieve the present exigency is always the object which principally interests those immediately concerned in the administration of publick affairs.  The future liberation of the publick revenue, they leave to the care of posterity.”

7. Stronger dollar will hurt multinational companies.

8. Offshoring to lower costs is over.

9. Employee compensation is around 55% of GDP, the lowest it's been in 60 years.

10. Earnings as a percent of sales, around 9%, are near 20 year highs.

              

THE FRENCH WAY

If you want an idea of where America is headed, read this article about where France is and has been.

Truth be told this is not just France; it's the entire European Union, a tax crazy, regulation-stagnant, bureaucratic-bloated, green-whipped pathetic mess. 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323716304578482672751540706.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0

THURSDAY READS

Pass The Mayo http://blog.diynetwork.com/maderemade/2013/04/29/diy-mayonnaise-8-handy-uses-that-dont-involve-food/?affiliate=blocker&omnisource=SEM&c1=MadeRemade&c2=Outbrain&c3=RSS&c4=DIY-Mayonnaise-8-Handy-Uses-That-Don?t-I

Bubble Talk
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-05-14/this-bull-is-like-the-tech-bubble-but-different#r=hpt-ls

Watch Junk Not Bouncing Ball http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704551504578485360775930142.html?mod=BOL_hpp_highlight_bottom#articleTabs_article%3D0

Canadian House Bubble
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/#

Insanity Bureaucrat Style
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/14/anatomy-of-the-worlds-most-insane-health-care-bill.aspx

Outcome Versus Association
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/us-ovarian-cancer-idUSBRE94E0XB20130515

Name Your Fix
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/15/central-bank-methadone-is-still-bad-for-capital-markets-black-rock/

Trust Your Bank. Really?
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/15/technology/security/bank-heist/index.html

FAVORITISM

During the Bush years much was made of his friends in the oil business. 

The implication was always the same, favoritism.  And for every hydrocarbon accident one could expect to hear the shrill voice of environmentalists. 

Obama is surely a friend to green energy, in particular wind and solar. Solyndra should come to mind. But as the linked story below shows one man's favoritism doesn't necessarily equate to another's, president or not.

http://www.energytribune.com/76807/obama-administration-gives-pass-to-wind-energy-companies-on-eagle-deaths#sthash.BW34ISrW.dpbs

CONSIDER

Conspiracy is a term that gets tossed around freely today. It's a term you need to be mindful of especially in its now common context.

Most often it's used to neutralize or marginalize. That is, anyone who the questions the establishment can get labelled with it. It's a variation of the popular political technique damage control.

For openers check out the controversies now threatening to engulf President Obama and this administration. Collusion is suppose to a legal no-no. And that brings us to inflation and the bond market. 

We'll suffer the risk of ire from the name-callers to bring you another viewpoint. We don't claim to be correct. But we do claim to consider. And if you want to be successful in this economic jungle, that's what you need to do. 

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/can-gold-rise-during-deflation