MAXIMUM PESSIMSM

One of the goals of central bankers as been to kill in the minds of investors the threat of inflation.

To do that in part they needed to curtail the bull market in gold prices. Their weapon of choice became the bond market. The easy-money spigot easily spilled over into equities and real estate.

The ploy reminds one of the day President Reagan was shot and Alexander Haig, then Secretary of State and a former Army general, said: "I am in control here." But the current debate over who should succeed Bernanke as Fed chairman illustrates the real truth: this lighthouse is sans keeper.

In today's WSJ are two brief articles worth a look. If you're a maximum pessimism investor--and we are--you want to own agriculture despite the current so-called commodity malaise.

Demand and supply problems come and go. Except by proxy, demand for US government debt is largely coming from the Feds. Safe harbor buying is only icing on the pineapple upside down bond cake.

The US economy appears in stall mode, extending the possibility of more phoney money creation. Like many things, it can be a good thing as long as it lasts. Forever, however, is no part of that equation.

That's why you should welcome maximum pessimism into your investing abode. It's the obverse side of irrational exuberance.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323854904578637453999548858.html?KEYWORDS=Heard+on+the+street

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324170004578638082108558320.html?KEYWORDS=heard+on+the+street

SAVING MONEY

Ben Franklin noted about a penny saved being a penny earned. Today, it's more like dollars saved are dollars earned.

What you do with those dollars is your business, but we hope you'll choose to carefully invest some.

In the meantime, if you're a cable tv subscriber, you need to read this article. It could save you some money and put some spare change in your pocket for investing. 

But do your homework.

http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/07/30/ask-stacy-can-directv-charge-for-something-i-didnt-order/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-07-30&utm_medium=email

MIDDLE CLASS

There's much talk about middle class in the US today.

It drips from the drooling lips of politicians trying to assuage voters. Economists and MSM love to dwell on it. So what does it mean to be middle class? Here's an example from Marc Chandler's Marc to Market.

This Great Graphic comes from Euromonitor International.  It shows the results of international surveys to see what goods and behaviors are associated with the middle class.  It appears that one's home is the anchor to middle class status.  The survey was conducted online, which, itself says something about the middle class.  Some 6600 people responded from sixteen consumer markets, including many several emerging markets, such as the BRICs, Mexico, Turkey, Colombia, Thailand and Indonesia,   

THE PRINCIPLES REMAIN

Economic principles never change. As an old, quite successful commodities trader told me years ago, the cure for high prices is high prices.

As noted here high prices bring competition and competition begets innovation. And most of us know just one of the benefits innovation brings can be creature comforts like not having to get up and walk across your living room every time you want to change channels on your television. It's a basic, simple now-taken-for-granted once upon a time innovation.

So the guy works for BP. So what?

If you want to get a better handle on energy markets, these two articles are must reads.

The primary role, intended or otherwise, governments play isn't regulation or protection. It's stifling innovation. Incentives that foster wrong, unwanted and often dangerous results are just one example.

The Federal Drug Administration worries about bad medicines instead of spending more time focusing on bad regulations is another.

http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130730080645-259060403-oil-boom-2-0-an-american-dream-updated?_mSplash=1

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323309404578613792021690244.html?mod=ITP_opinion_0
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NEXT CHAIRMAN

A Larry Summers' chairmanship of the Federal Reserve might sprout something quite different from a warm, tranquil summer feeling markets would like.

One of the top leading candidates, the former US Treasury Secretary under President Clinton, Summers roiled the bond market recently with his comment about QE and its overall effectiveness on the economy.

According to the Financial Times, Summers called QE "less efficacious for the real economy than most people suppose." That's hardly what an already spooked bond market wanted to hear.

The other reported top candidate, now Vice Chairman Janet Yellen, is viewed as being more dovish than Summers and more favorable to those who want QE to continue. So a controversy has arisen.

But since the appointment isn't expected until later this year, the market may have to twist in the wind a bit longer. 
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TALKING DOWN

The term talking down has different meanings to different people. If you talk down an opponent it can come back to haunt you. If you manage a big corporation it can put big bucks in your coffer. 

As most investors are aware 'tis the season for earnings reports. On a basically dull day yesterday investors took what the market gave them--individual company earnings reports for the second quarter. 

Of stocks in the S&P 500, according to a WSJ report, earnings are expected to register a little over 1% gain over the same period in 2012, a number that is well below what analysts had predicted in March. How much below? Try 1.1% versus 4.3%. 

Back in the tech heydays of early 2000 one major S&P 500 darling beat management's projected earning by one penny for 14 straight quarters. Investors ate it up, pushing the stock price ever higher. It was a great gig if you were Wall Street connected. Names like Henry Blodget should come to mind here.

Managements sell more than just their main service or product. Call it reverse psychology or whatever. In the business it's known as talking down earnings expectations so you can surprise to the upside.

Truth be told, absent financial companies, corporate earnings would otherwise be negative. 
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LOW HANGING INTEREST RATES

They call it the low hanging fruit for a reason.

In the bond market it's low, lower and the lowest interest rates. 

Unless there is some huge, nasty event causing a big economic downturn, it's been picked. It's, as they say, history. And as the WSJ noted today those low rates impact many things not the least of which are housing and corporate profit margins.

Sure, there's what Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is doing, a Ben Bernanke encore. But some see that leading to inflation and higher rates. According to many, gold prices soared on the news of his recent political success.

Debt has to be serviced. Low interest rates make that a less painful experience. The average cost for corporations servicing their debt if they took advantage of Bernanke's largesse dropped considerably during Big Ben's low hanging fruit days. And that difference was no small matter.

Down the road corporate profit margins may take an unexpected whack when they have to choose higher hanging fruit to finance their debt.
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BERNANKE'S GOLD

Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke recently asked about gold claimed nobody really understands the yellow metal's pricing including him. 

Coming from the most powerful bank chairman on the planet, Bernanke clearly understands the value of a strong dollar. 
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/07/22/what-ben-bernanke-knows-about-gold?eNL=51ed82e6fc746ff54300002c&utm_source=DailyENL&utm_medium=eNL&utm_campaign=RI_eNL&_LID=485386
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WHAT'S THE TREND?

As they say the trend is supposed to be your friend.

So what's the trend? Well, when things are weak and the future uncertain, retail investors lean toward larger, so-called safer equities many of which offer some income. As the economic malaise tends to disappear, they start moving into smaller, more risky bets like small and mid-cap stocks.

So what's going on now and how does this compare with what retailers versus the often referred to smart money? The bear market started in 2007 and ended by most accounts in 2009 just about the time the retail crowd, believing their pain threshold was exhausted, started exiting mutual funds.

US households are the largest owners of mutual funds.  In other words they were selling near the bottom. They did not return to the market until the bull was well out of the gate. According to one recent report, and there are several others, the so-called smart money got in much earlier and started getting out earlier this year, even before Bernanke notoriously misspoke. 

That trend, the reports say, has continued with corporate insiders. Again, according to recent data, the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq have of late been the hottest benefactors from inflowing money. As one market observer recently noted, the smart money tends to buy in and sell out earlier while the retail crowd does just the opposite. 

And whether one is talking mutual funds or individual securities the data tend to support the above. 

Go figure.

ANOTHER ROUTE

A couple of days ago we wrote about looking for a route.

We were referring then for the most part to emerging market equities that have been hit by Big Ben Bernanke and his so-called misspeaks about the imminent end of QE.

Well, here's a link to see what another route looks like, this time in the largest gold mining companies.

http://ycharts.com/analysis/story/gold_mining_stocks_guess_how_low_yeartodate?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=YCharts+Analysis+Digest+RHHBY+PFE+NVS+MRK+SNY+INTC+QCOM+TSM+-+Non-Pro+-+DIGEST&utm_content=YCharts+Analysis+Digest+RHHBY+PFE+NVS+MRK+SNY+INTC+QCOM+TSM+-+Non-Pro+-+DIGEST+CID_c8d0a1fc215aadf8a4fa865809ff5c8d&utm_source=email&utm_term=Gold%20Mining%20Stocks%20Guess%20How%20Low%20Year-To-Date