Tuesday, August 13, 2013

LOWER PRICES




Look at a gold chart and you'll note the precious metal practically everyone loves to belittle and avoid today made a double bottom around 1,200 an ounce back in June-July.

Since then it's staged a slightly better than 10% rally to close recently around the 1,334 level. Prices in the past week, according to today's WSJ, are up 4%. So what's it all about, Alphie, when you sort it out?  

One word: China.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323446404579008372464837550.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_2
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WHO'S IN CONTROL?


Let's see a show of hands is a primitive way to take a survey.

But it has its usefulness. Who wants to be or likes being controlled? Let me see a show hands. Recently, there was a big blackout when CBS and their cable company couldn't agree on, what else, money.

CBS wanted more, Time-Warner their customer didn't want to pay it. So as in most such cases the middle man--Joe and Jill Consumer--get screwed. Moral: if you want to avoid the hand raising surveys when it comes television fare, read this.

http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/08/13/ask-stacy-whats-the-best-internet-provider/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-08-13&utm_medium=email
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NOT BUYING IT

Sale Piu Etichette Stock Photo

Back to school may not mean back to shopping, according to recent data on retail stores.

Despite this administration's attempts to put a glow on assumed economic recovery numbers, mom and poppers might not be buying it. 

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/8/12/even-deep-discounts-at-these-stores-couldnt-lure-customers-i.html
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AT SOME POINT


At some point all the tapering fears from all the tapering talk will get priced into the market if it isn't nearly already.

That surely doesn't rule out a nasty correction. Nasty corrections depend more on one's definition of nasty than percentages. In a world of druthers most investors would opt for no corrections. 

But that would be like opting for no Central Banks: unrealistic. Screw-ups happen. They're a part of life.  

So you might want to put on your counter intuitive cap as the tapering fears mount. 

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/08/13/end-of-qe-could-mean-liftoff-for-stocks-wells-capital/
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Monday, August 12, 2013

A LITTLE CULTURE



http://0.tqn.com/d/ancienthistory/1/0/I/y/2/Domitian.jpg

A little culture is our term. The comments  appear on daily speculations.com, one of the better sites about markets and, in our humble opinion, almost always an excellent read.

Here is Gordan Haave's Story: 

Some time ago my now ex-wife decided that my daughter's sleep away camp should be 11 hours away in Eastern Tennessee. How it got to be that way is a long and convoluted story, sort of like my first marriage. But in any event she has been going there for years now and loves it, and my daughters sheer desire to get me to leave the second I drop her off and her tears upon pickup has me convinced of it's merit as a character building month of her life that is worth the money and hassle. Plus in the many years of drop off and/or return we have developed our own ritual of spending the night at the Hilton in Memphis and walking across the street to Benihana for dinner.
This year was my son's first year for sleep away camp, and of course it was in Eastern Tennessee about 20 miles away from my daughters camp, only they didn't start or end on the same day.
So the end result was my having to drop my daughter off one week and then pick up my son a week later in Tenn. Since it is actually closer to Connecticut than it is to my starting point in Oklahoma I decided to drive on to Connecticut and spend a week with family and friends rather than go back to Oklahoma in between the drop-off and pickup.
One sign that I am getting older is of course that I can't do the drive like I used to. Back in the day I would do the Oklahoma to Connecticut drive with one stop in Indianapolis (half way). Once, when my mother had to go straight into surgery for her cancer I drove it straight through without stopping.
This time on the way out I did Oklahoma City –> Memphis –> Harrisonburg, VA–> to my dad's house in Stamford.
On the way back I did Stamford –> Harrisonburg –> Knoxville –> Memphis –> OKC
The podcast of course is the greatest friend to the long distance driver. This time around I listened to The History of Rome which was once a weekly podcast (but still available) that ran from 2007 to
2012. Here is the wiki page.
I highly recommend it.
It was from this podcast that I fist heard the term Vespasian Sponge.
According to the podcast when Vespasian became emperor he was still dealing with the horrible fiscal mess left by Nero. One of his solutions was to let the tax collectors run rampant. He looked the other way while the tax collectors robbed the citizenry. Then, when they wy, he would become the champion of the people and arrest the tax collectors and seize their ill-gotten gains, which he would of course deposit in the treasury.
As described by Suetonius in "The Twelve Ceasars": "They were, at any rate, nicknamed his sponges — he put them in to soak, only to squeeze them dry later. "
For some time now I (like any regular reader of Washington's blog) have viewed the banks and the government as essentially one and the same, and the two political parties as representing one pro-bank and pro-war party, that then squabbles over meaningless things in order to have us think they are in effect two different parties.


While I still feel the same way about the political parties, the recent fines and criminal inquires against JP Morgan have me wondering if perhaps I was wrong. Instead of the banks owning the government (or being one and the same) that in fact the banks are simply Vespasian Sponge's.
Having bankrupted the country in all manners of spending (particularly raining bombs down on people on the other side of the world) the politicians figured that it was easier to let the banks steal from the population, (and then to squeeze the money out of them) then it was to just take the money directly from taxpayers.
In any event, on a website with a wonderful history of nicknames for certain business figures, I propose that we start referring to certain eminent flexions and bank pres's as "The Sponge".
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YOU DECIDE


 

Mom and Pop investors over the years have become a stock market indicator, usually getting out when prices are low and back in when they're high.

 So what have they been doing lately and how good of an indicator are they?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-mom-and-pop-buy-stocks-its-time-to-sell-2013-08-12?link=home_carousel

Sunday, August 11, 2013

ENERGY EFFICIENCY


Retro sign Gas and Oil -

Charlie Munger, the outspoken octogenarian sidekick of Warren Buffett, recently called America's perceived obsession with energy independence silly, according to an article at Motley Fool.

Munger noted that the black gold "is absolutely certain to become incredibly short in supply and very high in price." Imported oil is not a villain. In fact, Munger claimed it's a friend. For more here's a link to Munger's comments. 

 http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/09/charlie-munger-on-our-crazy-obsession-with-energy.aspx
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Friday, August 9, 2013

DOCTOR DOOM SPEAKS




It's 1987 and the stock market's been on a tear throughout the summer.

October lazily rolls around and Ferderal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan boards a plane for Dallas where he's later scheduled to speak. But a urgent phone call from Washington disrupts everything as the stock market drops 565 points in one trading session, a record one-day decline.

Fasten your mind on that scenario and you'll get an idea of what Marc Faber, the noted equity world pessimist, is talking about in a recent interview.


http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/08/09/marc-wolf-faber-still-thinks-an-1987-style-crash-is-coming/

Thursday, August 8, 2013

BONDS AWAY




Bond King Bill Gross of Pimco fame apparently has not thrown in his bond investing towel yet.

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/08/pimcos-gross-vows-to-win-bond-war-after-investors?eNL=5203b585fc746fb7240000d4&ref=hp&utm_source=DailyMarketFocus&utm_medium=eNL&utm_campaign=FUT_eNL&_LID=287557
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QUASI TARGET FUNDS


 
Central banks should consider a name change.

Target fund would be an appropriate choice as more and more set specific goals to explain their policies making them quasi-target funds.

The latest example is the Bank of England under its new chief Mark Carney. Carney, the former head of Canada's central bank, unveiled the change in policy yesterday. The move from first glance is designed to allay investor fears about rising interest rates, something much in news since Bernanke raised the Spector a while back with his comment about putting theFed's QE policy to bed.

The move is not, however, without possible peril. It's like treating a lab number in medicine without considering the total patient. It can lead to mixing the big picture.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323477604578653434040606850.html
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BABBLING TIMES

From time to time one comes across an article worth recommending. We have written before about debasing the language. The definition surely has different meaning to different folks. Babble is to debase in our view about as close as gray is to white and black.

So enjoy this read if you indulge an interest.

http://epsilontheory.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/7_14_13-The-Market-of-Babel.pdf