There's an old joke about a company CEO who asks his chief accountant what two plus two equals.
After a brief hesitation the accountant replies: "Whatever you want it to be, boss."
It appears that same philosophy prevails when it comes to forecasts, a multiple-billion dollar business. In this case when is a forecast not a forecast or, if you will, a non-forecast.
Forecasts or projections or whatever you want to call them are inherently political. They are made with an eye to pleasing whoever pays for them, in this case, the U.S. Congress.
The above is a quote from a recent piece about the accuracy of the U.S. Department of Energy's statistical right arm, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) and its forecasts about America's growing supply of natural gas owing the the fracking revolution in it Annual Energy Outlook 2014.
http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com
For a little background here's a quote from President Obama.
When US President Barack Obama talks about the future, he foresees a thriving US economy fuelled to a large degree by vast amounts of natural gas pouring from domestic wells. “We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100 years,” he declared in his 2012 State of the Union.
The above quote is from the December 2014 issue of well-known magazine, Science, that took the EIA to task over its rosy projections.
http://www.nature.com/news/natural-gas-the-fracking-fallacy-1.16430
Like most government agencies the EIA doesn't like to be questioned or second guessed. And that's precisely the point and why if your interested in the energy markets you need to read these three posts. And as we always say, decide for yourself.
http://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/Nature_fires_back_at_EIA_shale_gas_critique_999.html
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