Saturday, January 24, 2015

MACHIAVELLIAN CRICKET

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“It will work because it’s big, because it’s strong, and because it’s open-ended.” — ECB executive board’s Benoit Coeure speaks to CNBC, post-bazooka.
If after Mario Draghi's smiling gala "credibility" performance Thursday there's any doubt that QE ECB style is a progeny of the old Greenspan-Bernanke-Yellen put option, double your dose of medicine.

Financial Times columnist and Keynesian apologist Martin Wolf wrote:"Above all the purchases will continue until the bank sees a 'sustained adjustment' in the path of inflation consistent with its aim of achieving inflation rates 'below, but but close to, 2 per cent' over the medium term."

Who gets to define "sustained adjustment," the market or a whole gaggle of bureaucrats?  The medium term apparently runs until September 2016. Sounds like a LEAP put to us. What's your view?

An editorial in the same paper, "Draghi opens Europe's monetary spigot at last," stated, "The claim that monetary policy is inert when interest rates are low is belied by the recoveries of the US and UK."

Much of any U.S. recovery has engineered a paper financial asset bubble now headed into its seventh year, not a raft of meaningful, sustainable jobs notwithstanding what governments officials claim.

And as if these central bankers didn't know that most of the money in the U.S., as it will most likely in the EU, wound up in the hands of speculators widening the already wide gap between those
much-hated haves and those not haves the MSM loves to drivel on and on about.

First you attack the banks for not running a fiscally tight ship last time around, run some bogus stress tests designed to cough up the wanted results, then start pressuring them to lower lending standards.

Here's a what-you-expect quote from Bloomberg. Block out if you can the cheering in the background.

The region’s leaders have so far started overhauling the banking system to spur lending and funnel credit to the businesses that need it, and with some success. Credit standards eased for a third straight quarter in the three months through December and demand for loans is rising.

Demand is rising for less credit-worthy loans and bureaucrats and MSM mavens get excited. Does that about cover it?

Back to Wolf. Nobody knows for sure whether this action will work. But at least it's a start.

The proverbial camel gets it's nose under the edge of the tent too. It's a start. But nobody knows for sure if he'll ever get his whole body inside, a fact most would view as quite unfavorable.

Currency devaluation has become a currency war. Look around at how many central banks are doing it. Blockades are acts of war. So too are the foolish EU and U.S. sanctions against Russia over a country that has been one of the worst governed in the history of government.

And then there's that beautiful part with all the back slapping Draghi's getting over negotiating a bigger deal than most expected, buying one trillion-plus euro's worth of investment-grade bonds. He stood strong against those stubborn fiscal probity philistines of the north.

As a concession to the pathologically prudent he brokered a deal that left the ECB only 20 percent on the hook for any unexpected defaults. You can bet messieurs Renzi and Hollande groaned loud and long and deep from their third chakra when they heard that one.

What happened to the Three Musketeers and the all for one and one for all to take the fall? That hardly sounds like Machiavellian cricket.

Draghi may be Super Mario today to many. But if this monetary recklessness crashes and burns, in a not too distant tomorrow he might be a Super Something Else.


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