CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

Sentiment should come to mind. As market jitters about a looming correction crank ever higher along with the Dow, here are some to consider, according to a recent Barron's piece.

But buy recommendations from analysts for U.S. Stocks compared to those for the remaining global markets are pushing 10-year highs. And roughly 85% of economists look for U.S. growth to weigh in around 2.5% to 3.2% this year. 

And again, per Barron's, 21 of 21 strategists ( Yes, that's 100 %!  Will someone please definitively define that term?) look for the S&P 500 to close 2014 at 1850. Low hurdles and even lower hanging fruit are Wall Street products--picked, packaged and pushed.

DIAL UP YOUR COUNTER-INTUITIVE BAROMETER

Things get tweaked. That's pretty straight forward. But how about your counter-intuitive intuition.

We'll, one Wall Street maven seems to agree with us: the market not the Fed runs things.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/03/21/goldmans-hatzius-yellen-made-a-mistake-and-the-fed-is-on-hold-until-2016/

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU TELL

Mark Twain noted that there are lies, damn lies and statistics. And there are ordinary folks like you and me. A harsh but important truism is everybody lies. So here is an interesting read. It's about lying.

Read it and see what you think or, if you're not into introspection, don't bother and just tell everyone you did.

http://boss.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/the-surprisingly-large-cost-of-telling-small-lies/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=1

WEEKEND READS

Going into the weekend we're written before about behavior; it a simple matter about choice. And everybody makes one. With the Federal Reserve and its incestuous cronies with their ties to Wall Street the choice is always the same: bail out the banking system.

Period. Pure fact. Doesn't matter who gets trampled in the process. This last time around it was those living on fixed incomes, retirees and the working stiffs. Job creation is an oxymoron. Job destruction is a more accurate term.

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/3/22/this-chart-is-a-true-picture-of-the-unemployment-crisis-in-a.html

THE PIMCO BREAKUP STORY MARCHES ON

Break-ups are a lot like true loves: They never go smooth.

And apparently that's the path things took at Pimco, the fund group run by it legendary leader Bill Gross, who has tried to put this baby to bed more than once.


http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/03/20/more-troubles-for-pimco-in-wake-of-el-erian-exit/

DON'T DOUBT THE DROUGHT

The Ukraine is the sixth largest grain exporter in the world. At least that is what the market expected for this year. But given the current turmoil there now that remains to be seen.
But that's not the only possible headwind grains may face; dry weather in the Midwest, lower crop yields forecast for soybeans in Brazil might be just the tip of what could be much higher prices. Corn, beans and wheat prices are already up.

So don't doubt the drought

BUYING OPPORTUNITY

California needs Occidental much more than Oxy needs California; they just don't know it yet. These are the kinds of environmental lunacies that drive good businesses elsewhere. We view this bad news as good news; first off, it's temporary and, second, it's a buying opportunity in our view.    

Finally, in the interest of full disclosure: we own Oxy and continue to add to it on
weakness.
.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-19/california-city-s-drilling-ban-slows-occidental-s-plan.html

FURTHER YUAN WEAKNESS?

Unlike Las Vegas what happens in China doesn't necessarily stay there.

That may be the fate of the Chinese currency if it weakens further. Concerns in the region about other currencies following suite to maintain their nation's export markets continue to trouble many in Asia.

So far this week the yuan has declined 1.2%, the biggest weekly drop since 1992.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/21/us-markets-global-idUSBRE96S00E20140321

EUROPE'S NEW ENERGY CRISIS

Last year around this time the Cyprus crisis hit the headlines. Much of it focused on the financial aspect of the trouble. But on the back burner lurked an energy issue, Europe's heavy reliance on Russian energy.
:/www.futuresmag.com/2014/03/20/europe-needs-a-new-energy-supplier

MARKET WRAP

What a difference a day makes. Interest rate-sensitive real estate and utilities ended down while the rising short end of the interest rate curve buoyed bank stocks as investors apparently tossed off concerns from yesterday's Fed speak.

The US dollar hit a three week high while UK 30-year debts gets dinged. Brent crude oil rose 60 cents to close at $106.45 a barrel. The S&P financial sector index finished up 1.7% and JP Morgan breached the $60 mark for the first time since early 2000 in an apparent case of how-quickly-they forget. Gold took its lead from the dollar closing slightly down at $1320, it's lowest level in three weeks.