Thursday, February 26, 2015

THEN YOU REALIZE


At first you think they can't be serious. Then you realize they are, those Brussels bureaucrats.

Brussels has granted a reprieve to France and Italy after they violated budget rules, a decision that underlines the readiness of the bloc to bend its fiscal rules to achieve economic growth. The term undermines seems more appropriate given all the Greek mess going on.

The EU decided against fining France under its so-called tougher budget rules, meanwhile claiming France is the "eurozone country in most need of remedial measures to put its public finances in order."

According to the report, France was given until 2017 to meet the EU's limit on debt to three percent of economic output or GDP. Some in France were seeking even longer, lobbying for an additional year to hit the three percent marker.

For the first time ever the new rules allow for fining the recreants who violate fiscal and budget parameters. France is a known recidivist.

Italy's debt level at 130 percent of GDP is second only to Greece.

France and Italy, the second and third largest economies in the a EU. no doubt view themselves as special, a point not lost on those fiscally wayward Greeks.

At first you think they can't be serious. then you realize.....

NOT MUCH

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In Texas there's a popular dance called the Texas Two-step

At the Federal Reserve Bank in Washington there's another dance going on, the Yellen Half-step.

Some apparent Yellen fans, like today's editorial in the Financial Times, "Yellen's 'patient' retreat from zero interest rates," note: "Fed chair is right to be open-minded about the turn in US cycle."

Open-minded in some quarters is synonymous with clueless. We'll be a bit kinder and say flying by the seat of her drawers.

So far, Ms Yellen is doing a good job of it. Little by little she is acclimatising us to the prospect of a gradual turn in the US interest rate cycle. The markets this week reacted calmly to her hint that the Fed will drop the word 'patient' from its guidance at its next meeting in March. In other words, the Fed would no longer pledge to keep its policy rate at zero for at least the next two meetings. From now on its actions will be dictated wholly by the data. This keeps open the possibility of a tightening of monetary policy as early as June.

There's so much wrong with this pathetic little-kid-talk paragraph it's difficult to know where to start.

Guidance, the market needs guidance about something that's been rehashed in the news for months? The only folks who don't know about it are those who don't want to know about it.

Some might refer to them as the blessed.

"Actions wholly dictated by the data," what have they been doing all these months, playing a game a economic charades? These folks get paid some decent taxpayer-funded money to collect and decipher data. And yes, lo and behold, occasionally utter some straight forward sentences in straight-forward English.

But taking this stance is not the same as forecasting a definite rate rise. This is how it should be. Ms Yellen deserves credit for sharing a degree of humility about the precise strength of the US recovery. 

In this case, humility is to clueless as the sand is to the sea. Take a look at that "little by little" sentence. There's enough hedging in there to start a Wall Street fund.

If nothing else, this is a good example of what bureaucrats,  politicians and MSM think of the masses. Not much.




Wednesday, February 25, 2015

BIG BENEFACTOR

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Christopher Morley once noted that the only good life is to live it in your own way. The same holds for the truth. If you really want it, you're going to have to look for it yourself.

Here's a read if you have any sense of wanting to ever discover the truth one should plow through. The glorious year of 1913 birthed two huge whammies on the American public, the IRS and the Federal Reserve.                                                       

Some claim it's been downhill ever since. Take the time to do your homework and then decide for yourself. Don't let some MSM wag decide for you. MSM is on its last legs. This is only one reason they're coming after the Internet so strongly.

Given the recent call for auditing, there's a bunch of ruffled Federal Reserve feathers of late. A cynic might ask: "What's up with that?"

Hardly anyone watches television any more and many of those who do program what they watch. Advertising revenue has taken a huge hit and the moguls are getting their silk panties twisted in a bunch.

The panic will arrive later when the end becomes crystal clear. These boys and girls will have to find a new gig, a nettlesome problem for all.

 A recent Financial Times article, "Switch to on-demand TV alarms broadcasters," had the sub-headline: "Concerns grow over falling audiences for 'linear' television and the impact it will have on advertising revenue."

A sidebar noted the growing viewer switch to DVDs, Netflix and catch-up services. Hello Bill O'Reilly and Brian Williams. The nightly news with few exceptions has been a joke for a long time.
If it gets any more filtered it will wind up in its rightful place, a late night infomercial.

With YouTube to watch, Instagram pictures to take and Facebook, Snapchat and other social media platforms to explore, a generation   of young Americans that used to turn on television for entertainment is finding its fix elsewhere.

Isn't that what the so-called news has become, entertainment.

TV executives started  sounding the alarm last autumn when Viacom, 21st Century Fox, Comcast, which owns NBCUniversal, and Walt Disney began reporting lower advertisi9ng revenues for some or all of their networks.

According the the report the trend has continued to the latest financial results.

BET, which is aimed at African-American audiences, fell 22 per cent, the children's network Nickelodeon was down 17 per cent and MTV fell14 per cent.

As one mogul put it, "Its no secret there are far-reaching shifts taking place in our industry."

Yes, indeed there is. And one of the biggest benefactors with any luck may be the truth. 
https://sp.yimg.com/ib/th?id=HN.608003662614496661&pid=15.1&P=0
.http://themostimportantnews.com/archives/janet-yellen-freaking-audit-fed-100-reasons

OVERSTRETCHED

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So the Brussels bureaucrats granted Greece four months to show its true economic colors.

Not that Greece shouldn't have been granted the time, it most likely won't matter, but does anyone think it will really make a difference?  Meanwhile, the market celebrates. That's a pretty thin margin to get all bubbly about.

If there's anything more in the news than deflation it has to be the Janet Yellen circus and interest rates hikes. Central banks have flooded the world with easy money and now Ms Big is about to finally remove the punch bowl.

Once again kudos to Financial Times writer James Mackintosh's "Short View" for calling a lexicographer a lexicographer, apparently a person the Fed doesn't have on staff.

"For lexicographers specializing in central bank-speak, yesterday was a big day," Mackintosh writes. "Janet Yellen, chairwoman of the US Federal Reserve, defined what the Fed means by 'patient': not raising rates for the next two meeting."

Bill Clinton fans will love Yellen for taking a page from the former president's definition of "is" being pretty much what members of the elite class say it is. On this stage Yellen's an elite player, fumbling and stumbling with the purse strings of real people.

So perhaps a bit more bureaucratic confusion is okay. But then again maybe it isn't.

"We have to be forward looking," she noted. "We have highly accommodative policy that has been in place for some time." Yet most of the indicators she and her band of merry bankers use are backward looking.  "Data dependent" is rear view mirror.

The first rate hike won't amount to much. As Mackintosh points out, what's important is the market's perception of the trend. In other words, as in past examples will there be a series of consecutive hikes.

We use the tern examples euphemistically as in past mistakes.

The most hated firm on the planet, Walmart, just hiked wages. Look for the next retail shoe to fall of a lemmings-see-a-lemmings do. The dot plot may misconstrue all those part-timers--firms for obvious reasons love--who actually want full time work.

We had to hazard a guess, once interest rates strart up, the Fed will error on the overdone side and that should cause to think about start placing your portfolio on what's cheap now versus what's, to use a kind term, overstretched. 













NOT SO FAST

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Kudos to the Chicago voters who forced their socialist mayor Rahm Emanuel into a spring run-off election.

Hopefully, when the time comes they will find the courage to take back their city and run him off completely.

Emanuel received only 45.4% of the votes, unable to get the required 50% pus one one vote to return to office. The run-off comes despite Emanuel greatly outspending his opponent, Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, a Cook County Commissioner, and bringing in his big brother from Washington, President Obama.
--  
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Who says little folks can't do seemingly big things? California is the largest state in the U.S. and home of what many believe is the seventh largest economy on the globe. It's also a trend setter of sorts.

Last year without benefit of a public debate legislators and the governor rammed a bill to ban use of plastic bags in grocery stores through that was set to become law this July. It would be the nation's first statewide ban on use of the bags.

Not so fast. Opponents of the bill--however one feels about it--recently met the qualifications for a referendum on the law to be on the November 2016 ballot. The bill also called for extending the ban to liquor and convenience stores in 2016.
--


https://sp.yimg.com/ib/th?id=HN.607996137833629596&pid=15.1&w=168&h=112&p=0From recent letters to the editor, here's one to the WSJ from Pamela S. Hyde, administrator Samhsa U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Rockville, Md.

Related: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/maryland-millionaires-per-capita-answer-might-make-angry

Samhsa is the government acronym for Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services. Hyde, apparently taking objections to a recent comment she claims "mischaracterized the important work" of Samhsa, expresses her disappointment that someone questions Samhsa's work.

Hyde's last paragraph in her rebuttal says everything you want to know about government obfuscation and meaningless verbiage.

We are continually seeking  opportunities to better meet the complex needs of people wuith serious mental illnesses, including individual and systemwide coordination. The president has taken important steps to increase the capacity of the mental-health system in the U.S. We look forward to continuing our work to help all Americans--including those with serious mental illness--lead healthy,m full and productive lives in their communities.



AROUND THE WEB


http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/24/investing/lloyd-blankfein-china-capitalism-goldman-sachs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/european-index-futures-little-changed-telefonica-axa-may-move

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-changes-its-countdown-signal-heard-on-the-street

http://online.barrons.com/articles/falling-earnings-forecasts-belie-new-highs-in-stocks-

 platts.com/2015/02/25/us-steel-filing-unfair-trade-cases/

.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-24/secret-black-site-revealed-chicago-when-you-go-you-just-disappear

wolfstreet.com/2015/02/25/junk-bonds-are-extremely-overvalued-bond-guru-fridson/

businessinsider.com/gundlach-on-rates-oil-economy-2015-2

institutvk.cz/texts-in-english/introduction-fraser-institutes-book-essential-hayek

theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/maryland-millionaires-per-capita-answer-might-make-angry

naturalnews.com/awareness-skin-cancer-best-precaution/





Tuesday, February 24, 2015

HELLO LATVIA GOODBYE GREECE

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We've said before that the British are masters of understatement. Here's a sample from a recent letter to the Financial Times editor.

"Sir, Little in life is certain but when a cohort of academic economists coalesce around a consensus (Letter, February 19), the odds historically seem to favor the opposite."

 Discussing the Greek mess--and who doesn't have an opinion these days--the letter continues that "...'democratic demands of citizens' must be respected, but central to the debate on Greece is the implicit democratic bargain that, if voters choose a government, then they are accountable for its actions."

Over the  past five years Greece has spurned the opportunity to match Ireland, Spain and Portugal in reforming its economy. Its citizens cannot escape responsibility for that, and as a consequence voters in Germany and many other EU countries seem to be making their own democratic demand that good money should not be thrown after bad.

If Greece would have acted decisively and could now come to the table seeking relief, because despite its best endeavours the debt burden remained too great, then surely there would have been much more sympathy. 

However, put simply, does anyone really believe that Greece will reform if is given more money.

In 1866 there was an effort--the Latin Monetary Union (1866-1927)--to unify several European currencies similar to the current union. Belgium, Italy, France and Switzerland created the union and agreed to exchange their currencies for certain weights of gold and silver.

The history of that failure reveals Greek footprints, according to the BBC, "with its chronically weak economy meant Greek governments responded by decreasing the amount of gold in their coins."

Monetary unions are hardly new. Here's quote from a 2012 article.


Greece is falling out with its neighbors over their common currency - just as it did about a century ago. But forging closer bonds through shared currencies rarely works for long, says historian David Cannadine.


The continuing travails of the Greek economy and the threat they represent to European Monetary Union may both seem novel and unprecedented, but in several significant ways, we've been there before. 

Far from being a recent innovation, there have been monetary unions for almost as long as there has been money. But across two and a half millennia, and whatever varied forms they may have taken, few of them have endured, which helps explain why they've been so easily and so largely forgotten.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-

Hello Latvia goodbye Greece.

Monday, February 23, 2015

VOLUME AND VOLATILITY

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Markets are an ongoing learning curve.

There are things like two Ps, one S and two Vs.

The Ps are about premium and price. The S about spread and there nearly always is one. So pay attention. Tons of money get made daily on the spread. Think wages and productivity here just for one.

Lately, there's been an absence of the two Vs, volatility and volume.

According to the Wall Street Journal, this slowdown might be soothing the nerves of some, but what does it mean for others in particular and the market in general?

Volatility and trading volumes have collapsed this month as U.S. stocks have marched to fresh records, a respite that few investors foresaw and few expect to continue.

For now, the return to placid markets is being welcomed by buy-and-hold investors who have been rewarded in recent years for sitting tight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched its first record close of 2015 on Friday, while the S&P 500 posted its third record finish and the Nasdaq Composite is less than 2% from its first record in almost 15 years. 

Yet the February trading environment threatens to deal a new setback for banks and hedge funds that make more money in bumpy markets. Many bankers and short-term traders welcomed a raucous January in which stocks slipped in heavy trading as price swings widened.

Last year, stock-trading volumes increased for the first time since the financial crisis, and the pickup carried over into January. But in February, daily average trading volume slumped 4.8% from the prior month. Two of the three slowest trading days of 2015 came last week.

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Like it or not, the big banks have been over-regulated, as is the wont of politicians and bureaucrats and the reactionary world they inhabit, and their trading desks have taken the hit. Volatility and volume are usually event driven.

The list of gray to really dark clouds hovering over global markets seems calm for now, but this could be the big lull before the even bigger storm.

By some accounts, high frequency trading--much in the news last April owing to Michael Lewis' book about it, "accounted for 46% of stock-market trades in January, up roughly two percentage points from last year's average and up about three percentage points from 2013."

In the past low volatility and volume has pushed the market higher on several occasions, but that begs the question about just how stretched valuations are now in this market and, oh yea, some of those gray and dark clouds still hovering out there.










AROUND THE NET


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/money-saving-tips/11410509/When-will-a-loaf-of-bread-cost-22

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-wary-ahead-of-testimony-from-feds-yellen-2015-02-23

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/02/22/no-new-talks-set-between-shell-steelworkers

http://247wallst.com/investing/2015/02/22/top-11-corporate-earnings-for-the-coming-week

http://www.dpa-international.com/news/international/greece-rushes-to-finalize-reform-proposals-ahead-of-monday-deadline-

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/what-a-grexit-would-mean-for-greece-and-for-europe-a

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/asian-shares-rise-japan-hits-fresh-15year-high

http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/20/news/economy/venezuela-economy-inflation

http://profitsofchaos.com

http://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-franc-upends-daily-life-in-swiss-borderlands-

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/americans-slaves-dont-even-know

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2015/02/what-is-saudi-arabia-not-telling-us.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-22/u-s-gasoline-rises-to-2-3286-a-gallon-in-lundberg-survey

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/22/us-ukraine-crisis

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oils-plunge-could-help-send-its-price-back-up

http://www.naturalnews.com/048722_medical_abuse_government_kidnapping_parental_rights.

Saturday, February 21, 2015

GREECE AND OTHER NO BRAINERS

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We've all heard the meme too big to fail.

So when does too miserable or pathetic not to be saved come into play. Well, for now it appears like the recent Greece deal is a case in point.

As one writer put it: "The country's (Greece) departure would undermine the idea that the single currency is irrevocable, possibly setting a precedent for other nations that might run into financial trouble.That is something that euro-zone policy makers are keen to avoid, seemingly at any cost."

The key term here--and by the way the one most dangerous--is at any cost. If it sounds like the old economic moral hazard, you're getting there. It's the moral equivalent of economic unconditional love. "It's all right, Little One, anything you do, we'll be there to bail you out."

To date, this is a victory for the scaremongers, the same ones who scared the Scots into keeping their attachment to the UK at the hip, "...with the eurozone economic recovery still fragile--growth this year is estimated at just 1.3%--a Greek exit could be particularly disabling."

Yes, it could. But just as easily it could surprise to the upside, like riding oneself of a non-compliant, recalcitrant, long-time non-productive employee. Then there's the huge size of the Greece's economic contribution to the overall EU.

Next the writer states, "While the full impact (as if it is ever known in anything beforehand) of a....Greek exit for the eurozone is unclear, it would likely clobber the currency." Is that clobber a
short-term or long-term one?

There's been two bailouts--2010 and 2012--and like another scribe put it: "...the continent, then as now, was itself suffering from slow economic growth." 

That's spells a lot of euros heading south. "Many Europeans are frustrated at seeing their euros flow south to a country whose economy never seems to improve."

And there you have the crux of too-pitiful-to-be rescued.

Meanwhile, the euro is down nearly 6% versus the greenback so far this year adding to the U.S's  buyer-of-last-resort stature. For all those who deny a currency war is alive, afoot and well we say enjoy your economic delusions.

Azerbaijan might not conjure pictures of a big economy but central bankers there just depreciated their currency nearly 34% against the U.S. dollar.
  
According to the bank, the move was aimed at creating additional incentives to diversify the economy, boost the nation's international competitiveness and export potential, ensure strategic stability of the balance of payments and international solvency of the country, one news source reported.

Sounds like a competitive devaluation to us.

On another front, we've said before from the beginning that those billions in consumer savings from lower gas prices won't get spent and it appears they aren't.

Meanwhile, in some areas gas prices are once again up 50 cents off their recent lows. While there's been a run-up in some retail and restaurant equities owing to consumer spending, a meaningful uptick in consumer spending--the Great American past time--is meaningfully AWOL.

January retail sales numbers were unchanged from December. So if consumers keep their wallets closed, another so-called economic no brainer bites the dirt.