Monday, March 14, 2016

OVERNIGHT

It looks as if the stocks down under did just that overnight and went down under as the Bank of Japan held steady on its current monetary policy.

The Australian market closed lower.
  • S&P ASX 200: 5,111.40 -74.06 -1.43%
  • All Ordinaries: 5,168.60 -73.77 -1.41%
  • AUD/USD: 0.7490 -0.0025 -0.33%
The gains of Monday were wiped out, with nine out of ten sectors losing ground. Energy stocks and big miners drove the slide. The major banks followed, creating more drag on the market.
The ASX 200 is sill up 4.7% since the start of the month but is 3.4% weaker than at the start of 2016.
Today all four major banks went backwards with the NAB closing at $27.79, down 1.8%. BHP dropped 3.4% to $17.13, Woodside Petroleum 3.9% to 425.72 and Santos 3.6% to $3.86.
Investors continue to remain chary facing the Federal Reserve meeting this week and Australian markets were not the only ones selling off, according to Reuters.

Regional stock markets maintained a weak bias with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS down 0.7 percent, near the day's lows and backing off a 2-1/2-month high on Monday.
 
It was dragged lower by more than a one percent drop each in China, Australia and Taiwan. Japanese stocks .N225 extended losses to be down 1.0 percent after the decision.
With the global economy slowing and many countries facing deflationary pressures, investors' focus remained squarely on policy decisions from the world's major central banks.
Up next on the central bank roster is the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank on Thursday.


Notwithstanding the BOJ's decision, Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX strategy at Citibank, reckons investors are more interested in the Fed statement on Wednesday to gauge how important global vulnerabilities stack up against an upswing in domestic activity for U.S. policymakers.

The Fed is unlikely to raise rates this week but it will likely make clear that as long as U.S. inflation and jobs continue to strengthen, economic weakness overseas won't stop rates from rising fairly soon.


A consensus in the market is that fresh forecasts from the Fed's 17 officials released after the meeting will signal perhaps two or three rate hikes this year, a retreat from their projection in December for four or more increases in 2016. 


Financial markets are much more cautious with Fed fund futures <0#FF:> are pricing in a 50 percent probability of a rate increase by June and one full rate hike by December.
The mood in credit markets also was noticeably more subdued, with investors happy to stay in high quality government debt such as U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds rather than venturing into higher-yielding corporate paper.


In its statement, according to the WSJ, "...the BOJ devoted more attention than usual to overseas conditions. It said risks to its optimistic outlook in Japan included the “European debt problem” and “developments in the U.S. economy and the influences of its monetary policy response to them on the global financial markets.”



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