TIME WILL TELL

 So far so good. But that like a lot of things depends on what side one is standing.

In the case of the Chinese yuan, the government's apparent determination to keep the currency from falling lower is paying off. So far, so good for them. If, however, you're a hedge fund manager short the yuan, as many of the bigger boys supposedly are, it's so far, not so good.

A lot depends on whether China's troubles have bottomed. Seemingly conflicting reports surface almost daily.

China’s push to dispel concerns about the strength of its currency appears to be bearing fruit.
The yuan has ratcheted up strong gains in the past two weeks, hitting its strongest level against the dollar in less than a month in the domestic market and surging to a high unseen since early December in the more freely traded offshore market Friday.

The rally started on March 2, the eve of a two-week-long annual session of China’s legislative body and reached its climax Friday, the day before the country’s central banker took pains to fend off worries about yuan depreciation at a news conference.

“The currency’s recent strength is to a large extent due to the government’s intention to preserve an image of financial stability during the legislative meetings,” said Chaoping Zhu, economist at UOB Kay Hian Holdings, a Singapore-based brokerage.

The dollar fell to 6.4943 yuan on Monday morning Asia time, down from 6.4985 yuan at Friday’s close. The yuan hit as high as 6.4866 during intraday trading Friday, its strongest showing against the U.S. currency since Feb. 15.

If history is any guide--and the UK to cite one example--it favors the the hedge fund guys in the long run. But only time will tell.

wsj.com/articles/yuans-jump-is-sign-chinas-policy-succeeds-1457925578