BRING ON THE NUMBERS

The March jobs report is out tomorrow but we think the number is already in and the giveaway was in part the reason Fed Chairwoman Yellen's abrupt and strange about face Tuesday when she gave her talk in New York.

There were several things strange about it not the least is how much and how often she told those who would listen that the Fed pretty much stuck to its mandate, jobs and inflation. In fact, she specifically noted that the Fed doesn't pay much attention in their decision making process to global economic factors.

The bond market, specifically TIPS and now some recent junk bond offerings, are saying there's some possible overlooked inflation around, given the Fed's track record of not being the most prescient group in the crowded corridor of bureaucrats charged with running things.

We know some of the higher yielding bonds are in the recently beaten down tech sector and the size of the offerings, both excuses offered by some to explain away the higher yields. Third Avenue is behind us and with the threat of higher interest rates on the table for now, investors are throwing money into high-yield funds.

There's a lot of noise in the oil market, most of it owing to concerns about over supple with the threat of more coming on board. Bettors are replacing their short positions again after having to close them a  few weeks ago. Cheap oil brought out energy consuming drivers who lifted U.S. gasoline demand in March to record levels. In some areas pump prices fell to level not seen since 2004. In 2015 U.S. drivers recorded 3.1 trillion miles and the DOE expects that number this year to increase to 3.2 trillion.

Toss that in with the fact she was upbeat about earlier job numbers just a short a time before her speech. But there's more. The jobs numbers on Friday only cover through March 12th. She made her speech on Tuesday the 29th, giving her plenty of time for a warning from her close associate and fellow traveler at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica L. Groshen.

Impossible, you say. Well, these are indeed strange times and strange things happen in strange times. Not to mention there's much at stake here. Central bankers the globe over probably have less margin for error now than ever. In a short few months, we go from being told expect four or five rate hikes this year to a sudden concern about a global slowdown. One would also like to know what deal was hammered out at the last G20 meeting.