Saturday, March 26, 2016
SO WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS
So what's a "dead panda" bounce?
Well, if you're Chinese or following Chinese stocks it's the equivalent of the Western version of a "dead cat" bounce--a false or fake rally in equity prices. As it often is, in this case the Chinese official version of the old American cavalry riding to the rescue.
Officials there have been riding to the rescue of their currency, the yuan, and equities since investors began glimpsing China's growth was tanking not just stalling. See commodities markets.Much of this centered on what others feel is bad monetary policy based on heading political and social upheaval off at Disgruntled Pass.
Disgruntlement's opposite is confidence. And authorities the globe over always try to inject a dose or two when their natives get frisky .In China that's a lot of natives. After shutting off speculative margin and short-selling accounts, officials there pulled out a popular political hat trick--reverse course, reinstating both for the most part, also known in some parlors as a put option or safety net.
Chinese property prices are skyward bound, aided by looser government bank lending policies some estimate total $5 trillion. Talk abounds about few if any arrows are left in China's monetary quiver. Some pundits are saying leverage is all that's left to keep this bubble from going snap, crackle and pop. If true, they say, it will only postpone but in the end make worse the inevitable.
If one learns anything about financial markets overtime it's this: Whenever there's financial leveraging, there's economic jawboning. See ECB President Mario Draghi. When officials don't like what messes they've created, they turn to jawboning. It's their way of showing you just how much they value your intelligence.
Blame is another. Officials love the shifting sands of blame so long as they don't blow their direction. So the shackles get placed on those who smell the trouble and seek to takes their digs elsewhere. It's called capital flight. So, too, just as heroes need villains or why have any heroes, officials blame speculators, the devil's gift to incompetent officials.
Much of this centers around currency reserves. So keep your eyes there. The Chinese want a strong dollar and a weaker yuan, but have been forced to change course in their attempt to ward of short-sellers and curb capital flight. It appears that the Federal Reserve gang in Washington now want a stronger dollar.
So we'll see what happens.
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