If we had to describe one main characteristic of the Yellen-led Fed, this would be it. She is a wait and seer, a convert of caution. Now caution is hardly a bad thing so far as it goes. But like speculation or margin or anything else it can be taken too far, become paralyzing. True, you might save yourself some face and criticism on the way to the forum.
But leadership has as much do with uncertainty and risk as it has to do with caution. In Argentina, for example, the new guy has been praised so far for being bold and swift. That so far is important, make no mistake. And it can change, but that's what good leaders do, deal with change not contemplate it like an academic professor of philosophy or economics.
Harry S. Truman's famous gesture about looking for a one-armed economist is about philosophizing, contemplating. Good dinner fare. That's about it. An old professor of mine use to say: "Sin is a luxury." Only those who can afford to engage in it do. The same side of that coin is: people get away with as much as we allow them.
This is part of what we call the Trump Traction. He wants to hold feet to the flame. That's about as scary as it gets. You can quarrel with his so-called stridency, but fancy words or fancy formations, when the play gets called it's still about blocking and tackling. In our view, Yellen has done a lot of substituting but precious little blocking and tackling.
So as 2016 presses on us we will see how prescient not only the Fed but global central bankers in general are.
No comments:
Post a Comment