Friday, December 4, 2015

WHAT IS TWO PLUS TWO?

https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSuJtAptlTiNSqxCMLGTz1NFZEdyat-Mpgny0HPCGJQN01L0wke
As we said recently, the news is out and it's all over the Street. Here's the blurb on it from
www.crossingwallstreet.com.

The November jobs report is out. Non-farm payrolls rose by 211,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%.
The September NFP was revised higher by 8,000 and October was revised up by 27,000. Average hourly earnings rose four cents to $25.25.
I think this pretty much guarantees a December rate hike. 

We don't question the poster. He's simply reporting what was announced. But our cynical side tells us two things: the Fed wants to raise rates before year end, right or wrong. The second thing is they're data freaks and desperately need data to support their constant stance of hedging or fence straddling.

In short, this not a group noted for its confidence or decisiveness. Check out Mario Draghi's action yesterday. We've written before about revisions and their constant part of government numbers. This is one of those: "Here,we can show you the figures!" Three out of four ain't bad, especially with the fourth one remaining stable.

It reminds of the story about a company CEO who calls in his CFO one day and asks: "What's two plus two these days?" And the CFO shoots back: "Anything you want it to be, boss!"

The Fed got want it wanted and needed, the numbers and the trend, to CYA.

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