Wednesday, December 16, 2015

INFREQUENT BUT PAINFUL RUBS

Given all the turmoil and concern about divergence, this is a no brainer if you're a dyed-in-the MSM conventionality follower.

Take a look at a CRB index chart or read up on the fate of emerging markets since much of this economic mess began. The two in many ways are inseparable, commodities and EM.  So, as the headline on this article from MarketWatch.com reveals, "What the big money is betting on for 2016," is hardly mystifying in the least.

They're simply taking what the market has given them. In short, more of the same. But markets are full of surprises and often quite perverse. We're simply making a point, not criticizing. The term big money is loaded, implying big insights and a certain exclusivity beyond that of the masses.

And that might well be. But big money is not always correct. The recent track record of hedge funds states otherwise, particularly those macro-hinged. But, as a friend likes to put it, there's the infrequent but always painful rub. "Anyone can diagnose a common disorder when it arrives dressed in common, textbook fashion. But a really good diagnostician can recognize it when it shows up dressed for the Mardi Gras."

   As the chart shows, commodities rest at 40-year lows.

marketwatch.com/story/what-the-big-money-is-betting-on-for-2016-2015-12-16

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