Tuesday, December 22, 2015

INFLATION: IT'S HOW YOU MEASURE IT

A recent article in the fiscal times, "11 things that will cost more in 2016," starts:

You don’t have to be an economist to know that wages haven’t changed much over the past decade. Most Americans only need to look at their paycheck for proof. 

That stagnation, combined with a strong dollar and low oil prices, has helped keep a cap on the prices that we pay for goods and keep inflation at historically low rates for the past few years.

The first paragraph, though clearly understated, is true. You don't have to be an economist. If you have a pulse beat, you qualify.  The second paragraph is just plain misinformation. Inflation isn't at historically low rates. But how it gets measured is. And energy prices have been up and down over the last decade. Here's a chart we've posted before on commodity prices in general during that decade. The chart speaks for itself.
The author goes on to list the 11 things that will cost more in 2016. The first one, surprise, surprise, is healthcare. The second one is homes and the third tuition, all three of which are intimate parts of what once was the American dream.
So one could postulate that inflation has and will only go up for those foolish enough to still believe in the American middle class dream. Number four is another interesting one since it is in many ways  something those hopeful home buyers seek to avoid, rent. Here's the rest of the list in numerical order, five through 11. Girl scout cookies; food in general; airfare; hotels; and, yes, money, since it ain't free; bitcoin; and the last one, one we should most not accept, the price of the 2016 election.

Now all the items on that long list are not necessarily those of daily use, but many, for many Americans, use them quite frequently.


http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OG-AG225_201512_E_20151201170704.jpg















Here's another chart to show how renters fared versus wages over that decade. Those low wages didn't seem to hold rents in check much. For at least seven of the 10 years rents increased and in most of those seven years they increased dramatically, well above those flat or stagnant wages.

To be fair, the fiscal times published a companion list of 10 things that will cost less in 2016. Check it out and see how many you plan to either use or to buy. Computers, bonds; drones; airfare, owing to, as the article cites, cheaper energy prices; gold; iPhones; heating costs; and antiques.

If there's any one out there who believes this is some sort of fair trade off--one of Sir Alan Greenspan's huge fantasies he tried to propagate during his reign of bubble mania at the Federal Reserve,we hope, in honor of the latest Star Wars release, the Force blesses you.

And by the way, holding interest rates artificially below their natural level--the natural level has to do with price discovery, something you'll never see with a market-intrusive Fed--low interest rates themselves cause inflation.







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