2016 Bottom Line

 
 As 2015 rolls to a quiet close in the market, once again investors learned another lesson.

It's not an absolute, but nonetheless it's a lesson. Conventional wisdom or so-called expert advice was wrong for the most part. The S&P 500, according to many, was suppose to gain around 9% in 2015, oil prices were supposed to rebound, to name just two ideas popular at the beginning of this year. Instead, as neatly everyone now knows, oil went South taking natural gas prices with it.

The loss of jobs in the industry was recently touted by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank at 70,000. Those are mostly high paying jobs, not the burger flipper or retail ones the Fed and politicians love to rave about. Ones hardly ever gets mentioned by the media is all the ancillary workers who feed off those high paying jobs.

This is not to suggest conventional wisdom is always incorrect. But there's something to be said for doing your own work and, even more significant, learning to trust it. The fallout from lower energy prices didn't end with just sinking share prices. It spilled over into corporate suites.

The second oil company executive--thanks much to activist billionaire hedge fund investor Carl Icahn--stepped down recently. This time it was Freeport McMoran (FCX) Chairman James R. Moffett. Freeport made in 2013 what many consider an ill-advised oil and gas acquisition just ahead of the collapse in oil prices. Earlier another oil executive in a company Icahn had taken a big position took his benefits and chauffeured off into the retirement sunset.

The company is heavy into mining and copper and other metals that similarly have, like a group of orphans, felt the pangs of rejection in a global slowdown. Commodities are expected to continue this trend next year. That's the conventional outlook and it's difficult to see any big silver linings in those clouds. The key word there is difficult. It's difficult to make money in the market despite all those advertisements splashing and popping up daily on the Internet.

We know what happened to gold; it's public enemy number one of the Federal Reserve and other central banks when it comes to pumping fiat air into a sickly economy. That much is a given. Competitors are unwelcome. A strong dollar is suppose to be a sign of confidence. Like any good preacher at the Sunday morning pulpit, the Fed wants to restore faith and belief. Some would call it indoctrination of the masses. With the succor of its allies in MSM it's a repetitive game. Get use to it.

One thing you learn in medical research is as soon as someone produces a study saying this is that, it won't be long before another study hits the public saying that is this, not really confusing when you understand the term motive. Even in capital punishment cases, the court seeks to know the motive.      Wall Street is much the same.
Find the motive and the culprits won't be far behind.

We have no idea what the market holds for 2016, but one thing we do know for sure, somehting unexpected and unpredicted will happen. And just maybe, depending on where you're placing your chips, a lot of unexpecteds that will bring a smile to your face and your bottom line.