OUT OF CONSENSUS AND FALSE POSITIVES

China's yuan is much in the news of late owing to its inclusion by the IMF as a reserve currency status.

That raises the question of who gets get hurt in the process?

According to a Bloomberg report, The euro’s worst year in a decade is looking even grimmer after the Chinese yuan’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of reserve currencies.

The 19-nation currency’s weighting in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket will drop to 30.93 percent, from 37.4 percent, the organization said Monday. The yuan will join the dollar, euro, pound and yen in the SDR allocation from Oct. 1, 2016, at a 10.92 percent weighting.

 The euro will get the most impact from this weight adjustment,” said Douglas Borthwick, head of foreign exchange at New York-based brokerage Chapdelaine & Co. “The IMF is taking from euro to give to China; the other rebalancing amounts are largely negligible.”

 In other currency news, in what Morgan Stanley says is an "out-of-consensus" 2016 prediction, the firm expects:

The yen will outshine the dollar as next year’s star performer in the $5.3 trillion-a-day global currency market, according to Morgan Stanley.

In what it calls an "out-of-consensus" prediction, the bank said it expects Japan’s currency to strengthen to 115 against the greenback at the end of 2016. That contrasts with a median forecast for the yen to weaken 126 per dollar, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. 
Morgan Stanley’s top trading recommendations for next year include buying the yen against the British pound, Swiss franc, South Korean won and offshore Chinese yuan, according to a Nov. 29 report


In other what we would label  "Hello News," the WSJ today noted: "Euro Won't Win Inflation Fight for ECB."

For Europe, 2015 is ending much as it began: with intense expectation of action from  Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank. But as the ECB delves ever further into unconventional territory, the considerations for policy makers are growing more complex.
From a purely economic point of view, the urgency with which the ECB president has been approaching further easing has been puzzling. Eurozone growth has held up in the face of global wobbles, core inflation has been moving slowly up and forward-looking indicators suggest continued progress. It isn’t even clear that boosting bond purchases or cutting rates further will significantly affect the underlying economy.

But market expectations of action are high—and were building even before Mr. Draghi’s recent dovish comments. That reflects the real fight the ECB has on its hands: one related to perceptions of its ability to bring inflation back to its target of “below, but close to” 2%.

What holds true here will most likely prove true for those other central banks chasing an imaginary lab number that if and when it does arrive will turn out to be a false positive.

OVERNIGHT

Supply and demand, the two fundamental pillars of basic economics.

We've talked much over the months about zero or near-zero interest rates rolled out by global central bankers. China, the Big Bopper of global demand, cut interest rates six times year over year to date and judging from its recent PMI numbers, if anyone really knows for sure what they are, it's economy remains in a funk. Not good news.

China's manufacturing PMI sits at a three year low and, despite some recent stimulation packages many expect to soon favorably impact the picture, there's plenty of gloom around. Enter stage left, emerging markets, the Big Boppers of supply, and it's a scene unlikely to provoke much joy in Mudville.



The Wall Street Journal Tuesday reports that businesses are not stepping up to the spending plate either.

Companies appear reluctant to step up spending on the basic building blocks of the economy, such as machines, computers and new buildings. The broadest measure of U.S. business investment advanced 2.2% from a year earlier in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said last week, marking one of the worse performances of the six-year-old economic expansion.

Other measures show an even gloomier picture. A gauge of capital expenditures—orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—declined 3.8% through the first 10 months of the year compared with the same period in 2014, according to government estimates.

And then there's the looming U.S.interest rate hike, an already hefty U.S. dollar and a hoard of apparently reluctant consumers more hell bent on raising their savings rate than collecting piles future junk for their garages. If the strong dollar was designed to make the U.S the buyer of last resort, it's failed so far.

Reuters is reporting overnight Asian share are shrugging off China's weak PMI numbers.

Asian shares were solidly higher on Tuesday, shrugging off a Chinese factory survey that did little to ease concerns about cooling growth and taking some comfort from a private survey showing a glimmer of stabilisation.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS extended early gains and was up 1.6 percent, while Japan's Nikkei .N225 was 0.9 percent higher.
Wall Street lost ground overnight, though major U.S. indexes still gained for the second straight month and U.S. stock futures ESc1 added 0.6 percent in Asian trade.

China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at a three-year low of 49.6 in November, compared with the previous month's reading of 49.8 and below both forecasts for a reading of 49.8 as well as the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.

But the private Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing PMI showed factory activity contracted at a slower pace than in October, fueling hopes the economy may be slowly levelling out in response to a series of government support measures. 

"This indicates that pressure on economic growth has eased and fiscal policy has had a strong effect," said He Fan, chief economist at Caixin Insight Group.

We shall see. 

PATTERN TO TEDIUM

Chicago PMI lackluster.

The Chicago business reading of the how the economy there is doing went snap, crackle, burp for the sixth time this year in what some are blaming on a strong dollar and lack of global demand, dropping 7.5 points to 48.7 in November from 56.2 in October.

The charts shows things are actually back to where it was seven years ago.


 The above chart is from MarketWatch.com.

PAY ATTENTION

Ain't this becoming America?

And your President came out over the weekend  with his "Enough is enough" statement after the Colorado tragedy to ramp up the hysteria to trample your rights to own a handgun. In short.to protect yourself because it's obvious the government can't and don't want to. 

Pay attention. The life you save may be your own. 

• The Swedes see the welfare systems failing them. Swedes have had to get used to the government prioritizing refugees and migrants above native Swedes.
  
• "There are no apartments, no jobs, we don't dare go shopping anymore [without a gun], but we're supposed to think everything's great. ... Women and girls are raped by these non-European men, who come here claiming they are unaccompanied children, even though they are grown men. ... You Cabinet Ministers live in your fancy residential neighborhoods, with only Swedish neighbors. It should be obligatory for all politicians to live for at least three months in an area consisting mostly of immigrants... [and] have to use public transport." -- Laila, to the Prime Minister.
  
• "Instead of torchlight processions against racism, we need a Prime Minister who speaks out against the violence... Unite everyone. ... Do not make it a racism thing." -- Anders, to the Prime Minister.
  
• "In all honesty, I don't even feel they [government ministers] see the problems... There is no one in those meetings who can tell them what real life looks like." – Laila, on the response she received from the government.
  

The week after the double murder at IKEA in Västerås, where a man from Eritrea who had been denied asylum grabbed some knives and stabbed Carola and Emil Herlin to death, letters and emails poured into the offices of Swedish Prime Minister (PM) Stefan Löfven. Angry, despondent and desperate Swedes have pled with the Social Democratic PM to stop filling the country with criminal migrants from the Third World or, they write, there is a serious risk of hatred running rampant in Sweden. One woman suggested that because the Swedish media will not address these issues, Löfven should start reading foreign newspapers, and wake up to the fact that Sweden is sinking fast.

zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-30/sweden-no-apartments-no-jobs-no-shopping-without-gun 

EFFECTS OF FED RATE HIKE

In a related piece to the one about the fund manager survey is this from: www.marketwatch.com/storywatch-these-3-charts-as-investors-prepare-for-fed-rate-hikes-2015-11-30.

With the Fed looking to start the tightening cycle, the dollar has increased sharply and credit spreads have widened. This has led to a deteriorating of financial conditions in the U.S., as illustrated by the chart above, which could penalize companies by making borrowing more expensive and hitting exports.

“The divergence between wider credit spreads and still-high equity valuations suggests that a further worsening of financial conditions is not fully priced in by the stock market,” they said.If this continues, the stock market could be in for a downturn, according to the SocGen analysts.


Potential slump ahead in EM bonds.

How will a Fed rate increase affect emerging markets? Many developing economies issue debt in dollars, and with a rising greenback, that debt becomes harder to service.

On top of that, emerging markets have suffered from the rout in commodity markets, China’s slowdown and a weaker global growth outlook. This has led to a sharp drop by several emerging-market currencies, but as SocGen points out, corporate credit spreads have not widened as much as the foreign-exchange markets have depreciated.

“Our EM strategists believe this may change, as redemptions should force reissuance next year,” they said.

WHATEVER

Since ECB President Mario Draghi first sprung his "whatever it takes" meme on investors, it's become a household term and it's certainly not lost of other central bankers.

NAGOYA, Japan--Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said Monday that he won't simply sit and watch until domestic wage growth accelerates, reaffirming his stance to do "whatever it takes" to achieve 2% inflation as quickly as possible.

In his latest public appearance Mr. Kuroda tried to dispel perceptions that the BOJ may have relaxed its initial commitment to meet the price target at the "earliest possible time" because of stubbornly slow wage increases.

"Pushing up prices alone will be meaningless, so let's wait until wages increase--this is not the way I am thinking," Mr. Kuroda said at a news conference in Nagoya, central Japan. "If it is judged as difficult to achieve the 2% price stability target at the earliest possible time, we will do whatever it takes, including additional monetary easing." More:

marketwatch.com/story/bojs-kuroda-will-do-whatever-it-takes-2015-11-30? 

FUND MANAGER SURVEY

Global investors raised allocation in U.S. and UK equities in November and in select emerging markets as some managers see a rebound there.

The survey of 50 fund managers and chief investment officers in the United States, Europe, Britain, Japan and China was conducted between Nov. 17 and 26.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/11/30/us-funds-poll-global

ORGAN OF THE STATE

Recently, while surfing the Internet we came across a story about the refugee crisis going on practically around the globe.

The author wrote the following, pointing out something we've been talking about for some time, the absolute denial and blatant front running of MSM on the refugee problems: Front running for the administration and denying the real causes.

But don’t count on the mainstream media to figure this out. They effectively operate as an organ of the State. I bet they’ll keep prescribing more of the same bad medicine that caused this crisis to begin with.

This will help to cover the tracks of the real perpetrators, and it will obscure other real problems. I expect the media to ramp up the “blame the foreigner” sentiment, as it helps the US and EU governments distract the anger of their citizens from the sputtering economy and the shrinking of their civil liberties. From the politicians’ perspective, it’s a win-win. But it’s a lose-lose for citizens hoping for accountable government.

And this brings up another uncomfortable truth for Americans and Europeans. The way the political and economic winds are blowing, things could get much worse. More:

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/514596

Here's more on immigration, this time in Germany.

http://http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/11/german-economist-concludes-refugees.

THE MADNESS OF PC

We've pointed out many times just how dangerous the environmental freaks are to your liberty and freedom of speech. Now here's some indication of just how dangerous they might turn out to be to your health and your life.

It's just one indication of the madness of political correctness and the incompetence of the current Washington crowd.

zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-29/former-cia-deputy-director-gives-stunning-reason-why-obama-has-not-attacked-isis-oil

MUTUAL ADMIRATION

If you don't know who Andrew Huszer is, read the following:

Andrew Huszar is a Fed veteran who served as the "quarterback" for the world's largest stimulus program by managing the purchase of more than $1 trillion worth of mortgage-backed bonds — only to renounce his support for the entire effort in a 2013 public apology. In a recent interview with CNBC, Huszar insisted the excess liquidity created by the Fed has done more to enrich Wall Street than the average citizen. 

Here's two more quotes from Huszar from a Time interview he gave in late 2013.

TIME: You argue that QE helps Wall Street banks but not the real economy. How does QE help Wall Street banks?
Huszar: QE had two goals, but one of them was originally highlighted as the primary goal by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: to make credit more accessible to more Americans. QE aimed to achieve this through lowering the wholesale cost for banks to make loans, and we were actually successful at doing this. For example, my program – which was buying mortgage backed securities – drove down the cost for banks to make mortgage loans. But the banks weren’t fully passing on the benefits to their customers — they were pocketing a lot of the extra profit.

In addition, though we lowered the cost for banks to make mortgages, the banks didn’t actually start making more mortgages. If you look at the first day of trading in my program which was in January of 2009, and you look at the last day of trading fifteen months later, the overall amount of U.S. mortgage lending had actually decreased despite the fact that the Fed had spent $1.25 trillion trying to stimulate mortgage lending. In fact, if you look as late as 2012, U.S. mortgage lending was at a fifteen year low. The banks weren’t making more loans. Instead, they were often investing their extra money into securities to take advantage of the rising tide of asset prices in the market.

The third point to make is that the Fed was actually buying and continues to buy all of these mortgage bonds through the network of primary dealers – banks. The commissions that the banks were generating off these purchases were also significant.

If this smacks of a blatant bailout of big banks, institutions that contributed mightily to the meltdown in the first place, under the phony twin banners of Fed transparency and independence, you realize what this really is--a mutual admiration society.

cnbc.com/2015/11/28/qe-quarterback-fed-sees-through-wall-streets-eyes