Wednesday, January 13, 2016

THE SPYING GROWS


http://media2.picsearch.com/is?t3sYmQfVv1UndBx2M8pn-B2F1f1ZWuxt75lrJkQSuPQ&height=341 
There is an old joke in football, today sometimes called the spy, where the coach assigns a player on defense to follow the other team's best offensive player with the admonition to follow him wherever he goes, including the bathroom.


Well, that's hardly a joke anymore given this article from the NYT. Once again under the fake facade of combating something or other to protect us all, government intrusion on its citizens grows. Now the U.S. Treasury has deemed it necessary to track ( We'll use a kinder, gentler term like governments often do than spy.) luxury real estate purchases.

A word of caution is in order for the simple reason they might end up being accused and sued for discrimination since many of these all cash purchases of upscale properties are made by wealthy Chinese. The Chinese stock market until the recent troubles has been on fire, creating a lot of wealthy people.

The article says their focusing on New York and South Florida. If you know anything about history and governments, you know that's just the beginning. Money laundering is a broad term, casting a wide net. Wide nets alway capture some of the intended species, but a whole lot of innocent unintended ones too.

Even if you can afford it, you might want to think three times before buying any upscale properties in those locations. You might end up on a government no fly real estate list. It's something the real estate profession will love to hear. 

Concerned about illicit money flowing into luxury real estate, the Treasury Department said Wednesday that it would begin identifying and tracking secret buyers of high-end properties.The initiative will start in two of the nation’s major destinations for global wealth: Manhattan and Miami-Dade County. It will shine a light on the darkest corner of the real estate market: all-cash purchases made by shell companies that often shield purchasers’ identities. 

It is the first time the federal government has required real estate companies to disclose names behind all-cash transactions, and it is likely to send shudders through the real estate industry, which has benefited enormously in recent years from a building boom increasingly dependent on wealthy, secretive buyers.
nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/us-will-track-secret-buyers-of-luxury-real-estate.

ONE OUTLOOK FOR 2016

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Here are the big takeaways from Jeffery Grundlach's recent talk. See what he thinks about gold. Wages rising, dollar weakening, profits under pressure and outlook for gold sounds like a scenario for a little inflation on the horizon especially with a wait-and-see-reactionary Fed.

  • There is no reason to be bullish on oil over the long term. 
  • Interest rates could move higher but 2016 is a year to "wait and see" and then react to the markets rather than make a bold call.
  • The dollar's rally is probably done for now, especially in light of how consensus says the dollar is continuing to rally.
  • Wages are going up and profits are going to remain under pressure.
/businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-webcast-january-12-2016-1

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK ACTIONS

It's a mixed bag. Here's graphic from Deutsch bank showing what mode global central banks are in to start the year.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

BIG HUNK

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There's always a lot of talk about greed, especially when bull markets turn red. There are different kinds of  greed, to be sure, but when it comes to money it's usually a term applied to the wealthy.

Last we read the Super Ball jackpot is now abut $1.5 billion. Here's an interesting read bout another kind of greed, government. Big hunk would be more correct.

"If they win the jackpot, they're going to be subject to the highest federal tax rate of 39.6 percent," said Melissa Labant, director of tax advocacy for the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. "It's a lot more significant than folks expect."

Nor are there many workarounds to substantially cut that bill. "You're not the type of consumer the U.S. government is looking to give a tax break to," she said. More:

cnbc.com/2016/01/11/tallying-the-big-tax-bite-of-a-14b-powerball-win.

THE BIG BANKING BUIDOIR

For those who will label us conspiratorial freaks we say not so fast. Big banks and the Federal Reserve have been sharing the same boudoir for a long time. One doesn't have to be a skilled trapper  to follow the tracks.

As the article notes, this is one leg of the bipedal vehicle to control global finance, the industrial-military complex and the Wall Street money changers who get by with not a little but a lot of help from their Federal Reserve Bank friends. Like the old saying: Whatever happens in the dark has a way of finding the light. The same rings true for arrogance.

Russia has just taken significant steps that will break the present Wall Street oil price monopoly, at least for a huge part of the world oil market. The move is part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, today the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy. 
 
Later in November the Russian Energy Ministry has announced that it will begin test-trading of a new Russian oil benchmark. While this might sound like small beer to many, it’s huge. If successful, and there is no reason why it won’t be, the Russian crude oil benchmark futures contract traded on Russian exchanges, will price oil in rubles and no longer in US dollars. It is part of a de-dollarization move that Russia, China and a growing number of other countries have quietly begun.

The setting of an oil benchmark price is at the heart of the method used by major Wall Street banks to control world oil prices. Oil is the world’s largest commodity in dollar terms. Today, the price of Russian crude oil is referenced to what is called the Brent price. The problem is that the Brent field, along with other major North Sea oil fields is in major decline, meaning that Wall Street can use a vanishing benchmark to leverage control over vastly larger oil volumes. The other problem is that the Brent contract is controlled essentially by Wall Street and the derivatives manipulations of banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP MorganChase and Citibank.

The ‘Petrodollar’ demise
The sale of oil denominated in dollars is essential for the support of the US dollar. In turn, maintaining demand for dollars by world central banks for their currency reserves to back foreign trade of countries like China, Japan or Germany, is essential if the United States dollar is to remain the leading world reserve currency. That status as world’s leading reserve currency is one of two pillars of American hegemony since the end of World War II. The second pillar is world military supremacy.

US wars financed with others’ dollars
Because all other nations need to acquire dollars to buy imports of oil and most other commodities, a country such as Russia or China typically invests the trade surplus dollars its companies earn in the form of US government bonds or similar US government securities. The only other candidate large enough, the Euro, since the 2010 Greek crisis, is seen as more risky.
That leading reserve role of the US dollar, since August 1971 when the dollar broke from gold-backing, has essentially allowed the US Government to run seemingly endless budget deficits without having to worry about rising interest rates, like having a permanent overdraft credit at your bank.

That in effect has allowed Washington to create a record $18.6 trillion federal debt without major concern. Today the ratio of US government debt to GDP is 111%. In 2001 when George W. Bush took office and before trillions were spent on the Afghan and Iraq “War on Terror,” US debt to GDP was just half, or 55%. The glib expression in Washington is that “debt doesn’t matter,” as the assumption is that the world—Russia, China, Japan, India, Germany–will always buy US debt with their trade surplus dollars. The ability of Washington to hold the lead reserve currency role, a strategic priority for Washington and Wall Street, is vitally tied to how world oil prices are determined.

In the period up until the end of the 1980’s world oil prices were determined largely by real daily supply and demand. It was the province of oil buyers and oil sellers. Then Goldman Sachs decided to buy the small Wall Street commodity brokerage, J. Aron in the 1980’s. They had their eye set on transforming how oil is traded in world markets.

It was the advent of “paper oil,” oil traded in futures, contracts independent of delivery of physical crude, easier for the large banks to manipulate based on rumors and derivative market skullduggery, as a handful of Wall Street banks dominated oil futures trades and knew just who held what positions, a convenient insider role that is rarely mentioned in polite company. It was the beginning  More:





OTHER VOICES

Here's Jeff Gundlach's latest talk on what will happen this year.
Titled "Just Markets," there are several interesting charts to peruse such as this one.
http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/569588bae6183e591e8b8d0f-1200/.jpg

.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-presentation-januray-2016-2016-1?

OVERNIGHT


Is it just a case of grasping at straws or wishful thinking? Asian shares rallied overnight apparently based on China's latest trade data. Coming in better than expected, Chinese exports for December rose 2.3% in yuan-denominated terms from last year. Imports dropped 4%.

In dollar terms, exports fell but not neatly as much economists expected, dropping 1.4 % much less than the 8% decline  predicted by 15 Wall Street economists. In real terms it was the sixth
straight down month. As reported in the WSJ : On Wednesday, official data showed China’s exports measured in dollar terms fell for the sixth straight month in December compared with a year earlier, underscoring the headwinds faced by the world’s second-largest economy. Exports slid 1.4% in December, following a 6.8% drop in November.

So, much of the cheering is trend based. Meanwhile. Share prices in Japan, Australia and even China rallied on the apparent good news. In a word, stabilizing became the word of the session as investors hope for more of such in the yuan and in the Chinese economy. The U.S. dollar gained as the yen and euro eased and the hope for more stability helped crushed commodities as oil closed above $30 a barrel after trading earlier at $29.93 before rallying.

Any real sign of stability should prove beneficial to the energy sector.



WATCH OUT FOR CENTRAL BANKERS

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Forget the yellow brick road.                 

Follow the dollar. It rallied today for the third straight time. Seen as a safe haven, higher yielding or whatever, it seemed to take its cue from calmer markets and oil prices that were down but not significantly at the close.

The DOW finished up 117 and the S&P 500 plus 15. Oil though, as noted, slightly down for the session finished above $30 a barrel. If you've been in commodity-based currencies like South Africa, Norway, Canada, New Zealand and Australia you know what real pain feels like. So any respite the falling oil prices lends a bit of relief to these puppies.

Speaking of Canada and its loonie, the U.S dollar hit C$ 1.492 today, a level not seen since early 2003. Part of the loonie weakness, some suggested,,was owing to weak manufacturing, consumer sales numbers and employment figure that stemmed from over-confident central bank releases.

MarketWatch.com reported:They’ve maintained a fairly upbeat, optimistic outlook on the economy, and it’s difficult to see how that optimism is being sustained in the face of obvious weakness in the domestic side of the economy,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.

Many market strategists believe that the central bank’s projections for growth and inflation have been unrealistic, and that the central bank may soon cut rates, possibly at the central bank’s meeting on Jan. 20. The central bank’s overnight rate currently stands at 0.5%.

But as the late Yogi Berra once noted: "It ain't over until it's over."

The bottom line is China and oil remain on investor minds the dollar closed at 98.996 against a basket of currencies, up 0.3%  on the day. The British pound weakened 0.8% against the greenback to settle just below $1.45 at $1.4439, pulled down some are saying owing to weak manufacturing, after earlier hitting it biggest decline since 2013 in November.

We keep telling you: Watch out for those central bankers.





THE TREND

 There's an old Wall Street saying the trend is your friend.

Well, the trend in oil as yesterday's selloff left little doubt is down. How far down remains, like most of these affairs, anyone's guesswork. Hitting a 12 year low yesterday, the comparison birds flocked to get their reports to media. We're 12 days into the new year and the price of oil has dropped every day.

Three major investment banks, according to the WSJ, warned it could soon crash through $30 a barrel. That hardly at this point seems like a brave, brilliant forecast. It's Wall Street, Jake! The squeeze is on. Marginal companies that borrowed heavily to make a buck during the party now face a dilemma: borrow from their credit lines if they have any left or cut costs. Cutting jobs is a major means of cost cutting. So much for those recent doctored up job reports.

 A third option is what's on the minds of investors every day: a growing list of bankruptcy filings. If one is savvy enough to separate the viable from the nonviable, there's most likely a tanker train of black gold riding there. There's another squeeze here many are apparently unaware of. Some firms are able even with these prices to make money owing their more efficient wells, a fact that helps keep the oil glut going.

Recently, a big player in the sector sold a hoard of shares in an over-subscribed offering to the public. And as always happens those with the resources will wait for more carnage to exercise an often forgotten market rule that's as old as markets.

When you're hurting, things are bleak, only fools and the naive pay your asking price. When you have to sell, vultures find their carrion. It's called nature or let nothing go to waste.  Bankruptcies are at least in part for those with the resources about picking up assets on the cheap. They are also if left unimpeded by the regulatory crowd the market place allowing natural price discovery. So every cloud, as the saying goes, usually does have a silver lining for someone.

The trend is indeed your friend--until it isn't anymore.


Monday, January 11, 2016

OVERNIGHT

We're less than two weeks into the new year and the Shanghai Composite after dropping 5.3% is now down 15% so far.p in the year. The Chinese fallout is proving to be anything but local as currencies, energy and stocks are feeling the pain.

Oil in the U.S. hit a 12 year low and stock after dropping early in the trading session Monday rallied to close slightly higher. After a holiday Monday Japan's Nikki 225 hit a three month low and is down 8% so far in the new year.

The WSJ reported: Elsewhere, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.14%   fell 0.1%, South Korea’s KospiSEU, -0.21%   was flat and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.65%   rose 0.2%. In Japan, where markets were closed for national holiday Monday, the Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -2.71%   tracked Monday’s regional losses, falling 2%. The Chinese yuan continued to stabilize Tuesday, though the central bank guided the currency slightly weaker. Earlier, Chinese authorities fixed the yuan at 6.5628 per U.S. dollar compared with 6.5626 Monday. China’s onshore yuan, which can trade 2% above or below the fix, last traded at 6.5733 per dollar, weaker than 6.5695 at Monday’s close. The currency reached a five-year low of 6.5956 last week.

Gold finished off 0.1% at $1,095.70 a troy ounce. Prices have bounced by more than 3% year to date as investors seek safety amid the China volatility. Like it or not Wall Street continues to note the Chinese situation as for now it represents the wildcard until the yuan stabilizes and investors get a better fix on  the volatility and what regulators there will do.
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