Here from Mark to Market is a list of 10 things to look for next week.
Though the Market's closed for Fourth of July and Friday will most likely be somewhat abbreviated, we will be going into what many consider the critical second half.
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/06/ten-things-to-watch-in-week-ahead.html#more
________________
One of the big items coming next week is the June jobs report. As we recently pointed out in posting an article by Johns Hopkins economist Steven Hanke, the Fed's zero interest rate policy has hurt not helped small and medium-sized businesses trying to create jobs.
It caused a credit crunch. Here a link to what may happen next week when the report airs.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-hiring-far-from-top-speed-2013-06-30
Sunday, June 30, 2013
LEVITY AND TRUTH
Keats said beauty is truth and truth is beauty. And that brings us to the truth in levity.
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=8471
__________________
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=8471
__________________
Saturday, June 29, 2013
WEEKEND BRIEFS
It's everywhere. Can it be stopped? Should it be stopped? Is it just another form of Big Brother?
The WSJ recently ran a piece about companies tracking kid apps. When children use their parents' phone to play games or go to some innocent-sounding site like "How to Draw," there are companies that track and collect and share data.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324520904578553662943430052.html?KEYWORDS=Apps+for+kids
Here's one more example.
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/6/29/surveillance-society-if-you-drive-you-get-tracked.html
____________
The US might be seen by investors as a safe haven for investing or as a beacon of hope in a much-needed global economic recovery, but given the recent revelations about its spying activities, it now surely one of the most hated countries on the planet.
Here's the latest from a Google story.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/30/nsa-leaks-us-bugging-european-allies
__________
What a difference a fortnight makes.
Now it's one big happy Federal Reserve family after Big Ben ruffled investor psyches 10 days ago and the market went semi-ballistic. Fed members mysteriously seemed to circle their monetary policy wagons.
All's well that ends in agreement. And the latest from those boys and girls implies that they all said one thing and we investors heard another. They were misunderstood. Some of them weren't calling for an end to QE. Or higher interest rates for that matter.
Despite claims that Fed member comments this past week were not coordinated, the denial speaks for itself. It was coordinated. Jittery markets and blame are bureaucratic nightmares.
____________
Have An Escape Route
Follow the news. Just make sure you have an escape route marked off when you need it.
Bond investors are panicking. Big mutual funds and other institutional bond runners are being inundated with calls and redemptions from investors. As one fund manger put it: "It's uncharted territory for a lot of people."
And that's the point. Wall Street preens investors for stability not the unexpected. Putting specific numbers on things may be welcome and praised by some, but it also leaves one wide open. In boxing it's the one you didn't see that does the damage.
That's what happened to more than one big-time bond fund manager from Bill Gross to Jeff Gundlach in the recent interest rate-QE turmoil. Most spent the last week wiping scrambled bond prices off their faces.
"I am wrong 30% of the time and right 70% of the the time, and this was one that was wrong," Gundlach was quoted in Friday's WSJ.
Big egos are to big fund managers as salt is to pepper. When you see one you'll most likely find the other.
______________
The Heroin Ain't Free
The clarion call by central bankers that they ain't going to take away the monetary heroin anytime soon reminds one of all those historic examples of various governments claiming they weren't going to devaluate their currencies or default on their bonds.
And they did.
Some pundits say falling bond prices will trigger the long anticipated rush of money from bonds to equities. Could happen. But that puppy's been in the market for longer than it takes a friend to grow a chest-length beard.
And if it doesn't? Historically, the Fed has less wiggle room than ever. Times have changed and historical comparisons to 1994 are off base. Back then stocks held up while bonds went south. Bach then the Fed was trying to cut off inflation at the pass.
This time, if one believes the official numbers, there isn't any inflation, Just an unraveling of an unprecedented monetary stimulus package that's longer in the tooth than a pack ancient tigers.
Addiction to the heroin is not any different from global governments' addiction to fiscal irresponsibility. Once it gets going it's hard to give it up.
In either case, like fiscal irresponsibility, this heroin comes with a price.
___________
The WSJ recently ran a piece about companies tracking kid apps. When children use their parents' phone to play games or go to some innocent-sounding site like "How to Draw," there are companies that track and collect and share data.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324520904578553662943430052.html?KEYWORDS=Apps+for+kids
Here's one more example.
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/6/29/surveillance-society-if-you-drive-you-get-tracked.html
____________
The US might be seen by investors as a safe haven for investing or as a beacon of hope in a much-needed global economic recovery, but given the recent revelations about its spying activities, it now surely one of the most hated countries on the planet.
Here's the latest from a Google story.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/30/nsa-leaks-us-bugging-european-allies
__________
What a difference a fortnight makes.
Now it's one big happy Federal Reserve family after Big Ben ruffled investor psyches 10 days ago and the market went semi-ballistic. Fed members mysteriously seemed to circle their monetary policy wagons.
All's well that ends in agreement. And the latest from those boys and girls implies that they all said one thing and we investors heard another. They were misunderstood. Some of them weren't calling for an end to QE. Or higher interest rates for that matter.
Despite claims that Fed member comments this past week were not coordinated, the denial speaks for itself. It was coordinated. Jittery markets and blame are bureaucratic nightmares.
____________
Have An Escape Route
Follow the news. Just make sure you have an escape route marked off when you need it.
Bond investors are panicking. Big mutual funds and other institutional bond runners are being inundated with calls and redemptions from investors. As one fund manger put it: "It's uncharted territory for a lot of people."
And that's the point. Wall Street preens investors for stability not the unexpected. Putting specific numbers on things may be welcome and praised by some, but it also leaves one wide open. In boxing it's the one you didn't see that does the damage.
That's what happened to more than one big-time bond fund manager from Bill Gross to Jeff Gundlach in the recent interest rate-QE turmoil. Most spent the last week wiping scrambled bond prices off their faces.
"I am wrong 30% of the time and right 70% of the the time, and this was one that was wrong," Gundlach was quoted in Friday's WSJ.
Big egos are to big fund managers as salt is to pepper. When you see one you'll most likely find the other.
______________
The Heroin Ain't Free
The clarion call by central bankers that they ain't going to take away the monetary heroin anytime soon reminds one of all those historic examples of various governments claiming they weren't going to devaluate their currencies or default on their bonds.
And they did.
Some pundits say falling bond prices will trigger the long anticipated rush of money from bonds to equities. Could happen. But that puppy's been in the market for longer than it takes a friend to grow a chest-length beard.
And if it doesn't? Historically, the Fed has less wiggle room than ever. Times have changed and historical comparisons to 1994 are off base. Back then stocks held up while bonds went south. Bach then the Fed was trying to cut off inflation at the pass.
This time, if one believes the official numbers, there isn't any inflation, Just an unraveling of an unprecedented monetary stimulus package that's longer in the tooth than a pack ancient tigers.
Addiction to the heroin is not any different from global governments' addiction to fiscal irresponsibility. Once it gets going it's hard to give it up.
In either case, like fiscal irresponsibility, this heroin comes with a price.
___________
Thursday, June 27, 2013
NELSON PELTZ
Nelson Peltz is a well-known billionaire investor.
Recently, his firm, Trian Fund Management, took a huge position in Mondelez, a company we've written about before. Mondelez (MDLZ), the big snack food company Peltz was at least partly responsible for getting Kraft to spin off, is as we've noted a decent way to play the BRICs.
But the story gets more intriguing. Pepsi is also a giant in the snack food business, a company Peltz is also quite active in, building his ownership to 12 million shares, according to the latest issue of Fortune. Around the same time Peltz doubled his holdings in MDLZ.
Put these two behemoths together, something many speculate Peltz wants to do, and you're talking huge. You're also talking some money being made. Activist Peltz held more than 5% of Heinz stock when that deal went down at a nice premium.
_______________
CREDIT CRUNCH
Most of us realize that jobs are created by small and medium-sized businesses. So has near zero interest rates helped these SMEs?
Here's one view.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/steve-hanke/federal-reserve-vs-small-business
______________________
Recently, his firm, Trian Fund Management, took a huge position in Mondelez, a company we've written about before. Mondelez (MDLZ), the big snack food company Peltz was at least partly responsible for getting Kraft to spin off, is as we've noted a decent way to play the BRICs.
But the story gets more intriguing. Pepsi is also a giant in the snack food business, a company Peltz is also quite active in, building his ownership to 12 million shares, according to the latest issue of Fortune. Around the same time Peltz doubled his holdings in MDLZ.
Put these two behemoths together, something many speculate Peltz wants to do, and you're talking huge. You're also talking some money being made. Activist Peltz held more than 5% of Heinz stock when that deal went down at a nice premium.
_______________
CREDIT CRUNCH
Most of us realize that jobs are created by small and medium-sized businesses. So has near zero interest rates helped these SMEs?
Here's one view.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/steve-hanke/federal-reserve-vs-small-business
______________________
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
THE PH'd COMMODITY
Following copper, as one Wall Street wag several years ago reported, was supposed to be the equivalent of a Ph'd in economics. It was a statement about the metal's economic sensitivity.
Now, however, the precious industrial metal seems to have joined the unpopular club after a decade of being in the commodity limelight, according to today's WSJ. Demand is waning on a global scale while more supply hits the market. For a while labor problems hit the industry crimping production.
No longer. According to some, supply between now and 2015 should easily outstrip demand. Copper is quoted in dollars and over the past several years tends to correlate to US dollar movement more so than other industrial metals.
The housing market is inextricably connected to copper. So what
happens there with rising interest rates is also a consideration, though higher interest rates could lend support to a stronger dollar.
Now, however, the precious industrial metal seems to have joined the unpopular club after a decade of being in the commodity limelight, according to today's WSJ. Demand is waning on a global scale while more supply hits the market. For a while labor problems hit the industry crimping production.
No longer. According to some, supply between now and 2015 should easily outstrip demand. Copper is quoted in dollars and over the past several years tends to correlate to US dollar movement more so than other industrial metals.
The housing market is inextricably connected to copper. So what
happens there with rising interest rates is also a consideration, though higher interest rates could lend support to a stronger dollar.
MESSY, MESSY
What goes up comes down. And what runs smooth turns messy every now and then.
That's the current situation in China. But to be more accurate, the mess is pretty much global despite all attempts by those in power to cover it up. Damage control, cover up, semantical gymnastics aside, there's a four letter word to describe it--grim.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/06/25/the-most-important-number-china-needs-to-worry-abo.aspx
That's the current situation in China. But to be more accurate, the mess is pretty much global despite all attempts by those in power to cover it up. Damage control, cover up, semantical gymnastics aside, there's a four letter word to describe it--grim.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/06/25/the-most-important-number-china-needs-to-worry-abo.aspx
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
FINE LINE
Sometimes it's a fine line between winning and losing.
And the same holds true for credibility. Once blemished it's difficult to ever fully restore. Here's an article that touches on the subject we've been writing about for a while now.
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/Bill-Gross253A-The-Fog-That2527s-Yet/6/25/2013/id/50524?camp=newsletter&medium=email&from=recapemai
_________
The Drum Beat Increases
The drum beat against the euro intensifies. Make little mistake the euro lives and breathes on borrowed time. It's problems are symptomatic of those in other developed nations, politicians and bureaucrats and social so-called do-gooders run amok. It's just not the Germans who will sooner or later grow weary of paying.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/new-anti-euro-figures-in-germany-offer-vague-ideas-and-fan-fears-a-906675-3.html
____________
And the same holds true for credibility. Once blemished it's difficult to ever fully restore. Here's an article that touches on the subject we've been writing about for a while now.
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/Bill-Gross253A-The-Fog-That2527s-Yet/6/25/2013/id/50524?camp=newsletter&medium=email&from=recapemai
_________
The Drum Beat Increases
The drum beat against the euro intensifies. Make little mistake the euro lives and breathes on borrowed time. It's problems are symptomatic of those in other developed nations, politicians and bureaucrats and social so-called do-gooders run amok. It's just not the Germans who will sooner or later grow weary of paying.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/new-anti-euro-figures-in-germany-offer-vague-ideas-and-fan-fears-a-906675-3.html
____________
COMMON SENSE
Common sense is one of those topics one hears much about but, truth be told, sees and hears little around. Gold prices are an example; they've been going down for a while now after a 12 year run-up.
The key part of that sentence is "after a 12 year run-up." Now we don't expect everyone to get it. That they won't is a given. But here is a link to one of the more common sense discussions on today's global financial mess. The US dollar has more hot air in it than the Goodyear blimp.
People want what they want. Keep that in mind when you're doing your homework. And Bernanke and others want a economic recovery without addressing any of the real causes that caused the mess in the first place.
It's human nature. Bet against it.
http://www.moneynews.com/InvestingAnalysis/Axel-Merk-dollar-gold-safe-haven/2013/06/24/id/511559
The key part of that sentence is "after a 12 year run-up." Now we don't expect everyone to get it. That they won't is a given. But here is a link to one of the more common sense discussions on today's global financial mess. The US dollar has more hot air in it than the Goodyear blimp.
People want what they want. Keep that in mind when you're doing your homework. And Bernanke and others want a economic recovery without addressing any of the real causes that caused the mess in the first place.
It's human nature. Bet against it.
http://www.moneynews.com/InvestingAnalysis/Axel-Merk-dollar-gold-safe-haven/2013/06/24/id/511559
MORE DAMAGE CONTROL
If at first you don't suceed, switch to your damage control mode.
That appears to be the Federal Reserve's latest ploy after Big Ben stuck his economic shoe in his mouth and sent the stock market reeling recently. Calm those frayed investor nerves. Refill the punch bowl. Let them know we're still serving.
If you're a big bank, don't fret. The drinks are still on the house.
For every seller there needs to be a buyer. And the bridge that connects the two in most cases is called credibility. So here's the multi-trillion buck question: How much if any does the Bernanke-led Fed have left?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/25/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE95O0B020130625
That appears to be the Federal Reserve's latest ploy after Big Ben stuck his economic shoe in his mouth and sent the stock market reeling recently. Calm those frayed investor nerves. Refill the punch bowl. Let them know we're still serving.
If you're a big bank, don't fret. The drinks are still on the house.
For every seller there needs to be a buyer. And the bridge that connects the two in most cases is called credibility. So here's the multi-trillion buck question: How much if any does the Bernanke-led Fed have left?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/25/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE95O0B020130625
Monday, June 24, 2013
INTERESTING READS
Asia Down
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-25/asia-crumbling-chinas-worst-2-days-almost-4-years-nikkei-450-pts-session-highs
Energy Pick
http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/what-does-seth-klarman’s-baupost-see-in-bp-plc-adr-bp-179239/
Another Way To View Energy
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/06/24/energy-products-return-on-investment-is-already-too-low/#more-38254
UK Equities Face Turmoil
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/25/markets-britain-factors-idUSL5N0F10A520130625
Save On the Benefits
http://jobs.aol.com/articles/2013/06/24/nation-temp-workers/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-25/asia-crumbling-chinas-worst-2-days-almost-4-years-nikkei-450-pts-session-highs
Energy Pick
http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/what-does-seth-klarman’s-baupost-see-in-bp-plc-adr-bp-179239/
Another Way To View Energy
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/06/24/energy-products-return-on-investment-is-already-too-low/#more-38254
UK Equities Face Turmoil
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/25/markets-britain-factors-idUSL5N0F10A520130625
Save On the Benefits
http://jobs.aol.com/articles/2013/06/24/nation-temp-workers/
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