Pick Any Two

If you like charts the one below is an interesting one. David Stockman in a recent piece writes that the S&P has moved nowhere for 600 days. That’s right. The S&P 500 first crossed the 2060 threshold around mid-November of 2014, and has made upwards of 40 attempts to rally since then—-all of which have failed to be sustained.

In market jargon such action is usually called distribution and presages a bear market. In this case, given all easy money all these many years now, nearly a decade, a big  bear market. Why would it be anything less. Call it, if you want, the law of magnitude. A long way up usually corresponds with an even longer way down when you're talking markets.

Some believe this market is the third the Fed has created in the last 15 years. Other think there is actually about five bubbles around, stocks, bonds, student loan debt, real estate and even sum prime auto loans.

That reminds of a sign in front of a  popular eatery we espied one summer years ago in rural Alabama as we were driving through. "Great Food, Great Prices, Great Service. Pick Any Two."



davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-curse-of-wealth-effects-central-banking 

Overnight

For the fifth day in a row the Nikkei drifted higher surprising many as Brexit concerns subsided Friday after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signaled the possibility of a rate cut later this summer that investors believe would help support the UK economy after last week's vote to say hasta la vista to the EU.

Most Asian shares responded positively with the Nikkei up 0.7%, the Kospi higher 0.8% and the Australian S&P 200 rose 0.6%. The Shanghai Composite chipped in a 0.5% gain and New Zealand"s NZX bumped up 0.5%. Hong was closed for an administrative holiday. For the week the Nikkei is p 4.8%, trading mid-morning at 15,701.6. So far Japanese shares have retraced nearly half of their losses since the Brexit vote. Japanese exporters were also positive. The Japanese yen weakened to 102.86 against the dollar, compared with Thursday's levels near 102.48 in the afternoon local time.

The WSJ reported: The British pound was at 137.24 yen, weaker than late Thursday’ s Y137.36 in New York. The sterling was at $1.3343, compared with $1.3311 in late New York trading.
The Bank of Japan’s latest tankan poll, a quarterly survey of business confidence, showed Friday the sentiment among Japanese banks hit its lowest point in three-and-a-half years in the April-June quarter while manufacturers’ sentiment remained solid in the second quarter.

Oil prices advanced during Asian hours, with global benchmark Brent higher by 0.68 percent at $50.05 a barrel, and U.S. crude up 0.58 percent at $48.6 and gold prices were up 0.49 percent on Friday, hovering at $1,328.30 an ounce, compared with highs near $1,335 reached in the previous week amid volatility in markets following the Brexit vote

Too Much Water

Markets might have calmed, but the differences between great swaths of people on this planet has not. And, sad as it is, it won't anytime soon. Too much water has flowed under the bureaucratic bridge in too many places.

It's interesting that many of the Remain cry babies accuse the leaders of the Leave crowd of running a lies and fear campaign. This is one of their main excuses for what happened. The other one is almost too stupid and condescending to respond, but we will.  All 52% of those who voted for leaving are too benighted and too lower class to know when they're being duped.

President Obama's appearance with his overt threat that if Leave passed, the UK would have to go to the end of the line to negotiate sounded like a fear tactic to most people. It was hard to keep track of over the weeks leading up to Brexit of the number of sky-is-falling articles that appeared daily in MSM and from other prominent figures besides Mr. Obama. Most of them were so blatantly phony one got the impression they'd make good scripts for Hollywood horror movies.

We recently posted two articles--the faces of an American elitist and the face of a global elitist. Here is one sentence, the concluding one from one of those elites that should tell you all you need to know: "Did I say “ignorant”? Yes, I did. It is necessary to say that people are deluded and that the task of leadership is to un-delude them."

If that doesn't have the ring of force or else to you, we wish you luck. We only speak here for ourselves, the only one were qualified to speak for. And to that we say this: We accept heartily your elitist challenge, sir. Not to mention those of your elitist allies. And the sooner the better.

UK Prime Minister Cameron attended what will likely be his last EU Summit dinner.  Reports made it sound like he blamed the other officials for not making more concessions to the UK especially on free movement.  There seemed to be little recognition on Cameron's part that 1) calling a referendum was a mistake in the first place; 2) that such an important change maybe should not have been decided on a simple majority basis; and 3) that the Remain ran a poor campaign, based on fear, rather than a positive, constructive agenda. marctomarket.com/2016/06/fragile-calm-ahead-of-quarter-end.

Here is a picture of EU Commissioner President Jean-Claude Juncker, the man who told the world there are times when it's okay to lie to get what you want, trying to block a journalist from doing his job, taking a picture of Nigel Farage.

 
zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-30/caught-film-juncker-disappears-farage 

Overnight

It was an upbeat night for Asian stocks overnight as the fears about Brexit seem to be dissipating partly on the Wall Street rally earlier and the safe-haven yen for not rising.

The Nikkei 225 was up 0.8%, the MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan gained 1.3% after making a one-month low less than a week ago. Expectations that central banks will ease monetary policy is lending a helping hand some are saying to these rallies.

The weaker yen remained flat while the dollar was little changed at 102.650 yen JPY= after sliding to 99.00 on Friday, a trough last seen in November 2013. For the quarter, the greenback was headed for an 8 percent drop against the yen. A weaker dollar usually in this environment means stronger gold prices and that is what happened as precious metals with silver near and 1-1/2 year high made on Wednesday and platinum and palladium rallied 3% overnight. Gold was at $1320 per ounce. Crude rallied after a larger than expected drawdown in U.S. supplies and the concern about a Norway strike abated.

The WSJ reported: Most major Asian stock markets are on track to book monthly losses in June. Japan’s Nikkei is the region’s worst-performing stock benchmark, down 8.9% for the month. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.6% over the same period.
In China, however, the Shanghai Composite was headed for a tiny gain of 0.45%, a sign of its relative isolation from investors’ worries about last week’s Brexit vote.
Meanwhile, smaller stock markets in Southeast Asia also did well this month, with the  Philippine Stock Exchange ’s PSEi index up 6.45%.

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The Face of An Elite Globalist

 

Yesterday we posted, The Face of An American Elitist, but it's also the face of a global elitist.

Today, we post an article, zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/elites-called-arms-its-time-rise-against-ignorant-masses, for all of you ignoramuses to show, once again, what globalists and their elitist kin really think of you.

Here's a brief excerpt. It appears the powers that be just are not going to take it anymore. Having mistakenly allowed the people of Britain to exercise their free will, Foreign Policy's James Traub exclaims, "It's time for the elites to rise up against the ignorant masses."

 One of the most brazen features of the Brexit vote was the utter repudiation of the bankers and economists and Western heads of state who warned voters against the dangers of a split with the European Union. British Prime Minister David Cameron thought that voters would defer to the near-universal opinion of experts; that only shows how utterly he misjudged his own people.

The schism we see opening before us is not just about policies, but about reality. The Brexit forces won because cynical leaders were prepared to cater to voters’ paranoia, lying to them about the dangers of immigration and the costs of membership in the EU. Some of those leaders have already begun to admit that they were lying. Donald Trump has, of course, set a new standard for disingenuousness and catering to voters’ fears, whether over immigration or foreign trade or anything else he can think of. The Republican Party, already rife with science-deniers and economic reality-deniers, has thrown itself into the embrace of a man who fabricates realities that ignorant people like to inhabit.

Did I say “ignorant”? Yes, I did. It is necessary to say that people are deluded and that the task of leadership is to un-delude them.

Is that “elitist”? Maybe it is; maybe we have become so inclined to celebrate the authenticity of all personal conviction that it is now elitist to believe in reason, expertise, and the lessons of history. If so, the party of accepting reality must be prepared to take on the party of denying reality, and its enablers among those who know better. If that is the coming realignment, we should embrace it.

Remove All Doubt

There's old children's game called Musical Chairs.

It's pretty simple. A certain number of chairs are placed in a circle minus one versus the number of players. In short, 11 players but only 10 chairs. Then the music starts, the children move in circles until the music suddenly stops and all the kids scramble to find a seat. The one who doesn't find a seat is out of the game.

As we said, it's simple game, but one fraught with life lessons. Here's one of them: Something dramatic happens when the music stops. One might suggest the Federal Reserve has a clear understanding of this game. One might even go so far as to suggest at the risk of being labeled a cynic it's the only thing they have a clear understanding of.

Here's article from Zerohedge on the subject.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/fed-finds-good-excuse-extend-and-pretend-through-brexit.



Brexit has happened. Those who are not happy with this reality are making their voices heard; yet, so too are those who are overjoyed to have their liberty and freedom back in their own hands.

This divide is glaringly obvious and has been the highlight of the news reel since last week's vote. There has been a flood of articles relating to the matter, and for good reason. This is a historic event and a move that slaps the global elites squarely in the face, something that rarely happens throughout our history.

Regardless, turbulent times are ahead for the global markets, as this move was considered a "black swan" event, one that was not expected by many, even by those who hoped it would happen. Even Nigel Farage, one of the leaders of the "Leave" campaign, suspected that the vote would be close, but didn't hold out hope that they would win.

Therefore, it is no surprise to find that the FED is also shocked by this turn of events. They, along with many others, did not expect this to happen - but never fear! They will take advantage of the situation and use it as a full-blown excuse as to why they once again cannot act and raise interest rates.

Brexit has essentially given Janet Yellen a perfect excuse as to why she cannot raise rates. The FED has been jawboning about a raise in rates once again over the past few months, something that I have highlighted time and time again.

This MOPE is a constant theme at just about any press conference the FED attends. They must keep people thinking that they have some sort of power, that they can unravel this mess they have created in the fiat markets. The fact is they cannot, and they know this.

If Brexit didn't occur, then the FED would have simply found another excuse to not raise rates. That, or they would have just engaged in more extend and pretend, pushing the idea down the road just a little further as they so often do.

Either way, near-rock bottom interest rates are here to stay as the U.S. dollar strengthens vs the pound and the Euro. As the elites say, never let a good crisis go to waste. Don't worry - the FED isn't.

What's important here is not so much the Fed's inactivity. It's the only refuge to maintain any semblance of credibility they have left. Once that's gone it's like that simple game of musical chairs--something dramatic happens. To put is another way: Someone once said that it is better to be thought of as a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.

It doesn't matter what the Fed does next. Whatever it is it will remove all doubt.

Overnight

A picture as we all know is worth, well, a picture. And the picture in Asia overnight was a relief to many as fear of Brexit subsided at least for now. Among those apparently relieved were people fearing another market freeze up as occurred when Lehman blew up in what seems an eon ago. Still many remain cautious trying not to forget those famous words of stock market guru, the late Yogi Berra: "It ain't over until it's over."



The above numbers speak for themselves following last Friday's selloff. As pundits of all sorts ponder the full impact the the UK vote to leave the EU, many investors expect volatility to remain a front and center market issue to which one can only say that only time will tell.

Meanwhile, the major rating agencies jumped into the fray, as is there wont, better late that never to downgrade UK debt to AA from AAA.Two terms, lesser predictability and efficiency in policy setting were tossed around by some to explain the reasoning behind the downgrade. The WSJ reported: Gold prices rose 0.4% to $1,323 a troy ounce and the Japanese yen strengthened 0.2% to 102.46 yen to one U.S. dollar, both early in Asian trading Wednesday.

Yields on Japanese government bonds stayed low and Reuters noted, "Returns on the Japanese 20-year bond reached a fresh all time-low of 0.039%. The yen took a break as the " dollar firmed to 102.63 yen, moving further away from its 2-1/2-year low of 99.00 touched on Friday after the outcome of the UK referendum," according to Reuters. Japanese PM Shinzo Abe pulled a page from Mario Draghi by advising his finance minister and central bank head to take any "necessary measures" to support the economy and financial markets.


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The Face Of An American Elitist

We're posted this link to an article that appears at davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-elites-snobbish-reaction-to-brexit-is-the-reason-brexit-happened.

If you want to get an insight of the them-versus-us or us-versus-them theme Brexit symbolizes to see just how authentic it is, you need to read this article. Even more important you need to pass it on. It buttresses what we and others have been saying for a long, long time. Here's a quote to get you started from one of the American elitist crowd, Harvard economist Ken Rogoff. It gives a good account of how these elitists view the rest of us. Never, however, make the mistake that this is something new.

On op-ed pages, there was a lot of the same. Harvard economics professor and chess grandmaster Kenneth Rogoff wrote a piece for the Boston Globe called “Britain’s democratic failure” in which he argued:
“This isn’t democracy; it is Russian roulette for republics. A decision of enormous consequence… has been made without any appropriate checks and balances.”
Rogoff then went on to do something that’s become popular in pundit circles these days: He pointed to the lessons of antiquity. Going back thousands of years, he said, Very Smart People have warned us about the dangers of allowing the rabble to make decisions.
“Since ancient times,” he wrote, “philosophers have tried to devise systems to try to balance the strengths of majority rule against the need to ensure that informed parties get a larger say in critical decisions.”
Presumably playing the role of one of the “informed parties” in this exercise, Rogoff went on:

“By some accounts… Athens had implemented the purest historical example of democracy,” he wrote. “Ultimately, though, after some catastrophic war decisions, Athenians saw a need to give more power to independent bodies.”
This is exactly the argument that British blogging supernova Andrew Sullivan unleashed a few months ago in his 8,000-word diatribe against Donald Trump, “Democracies end when they are too democratic.”
Like Rogoff, Sullivan argued that over-democratic societies drift into passionate excesses, and need that vanguard of Very Smart People to make sure they don’t get themselves into trouble.

In short, you the rabble can have our gift to you of voting your choice, but we the superior humans of the planet need to have our checks and balances to override whenever you make a mistake and exceed your mental capacity. Mistake here, of course, means voting for something they in their superior intellect disagree with.

Prayers Get Answered

 
Here's some more CNN Money financial nonsense. Most of it more whining and whimpering over the UK's exit from the EU. We warned you about the post-Brexit scaremongering from MSM and its elitist friends in high places.money.cnn.com/2016/06/28/news/economy/uk-economy-brexit-taxes-spending-austerity.

1. Economists have slashed their growth forecasts for this year, and next, with some even predicting a recession.

When is the last time economists anywhere on the planet got their growth forecasts anywhere near correct? And their predictions have been about as accurate as those of Goldman Sachs, abominable.

2. Britain's top finance official: 'It will not be plain sailing.

Here we have outgoing UK Treasury Chief George Osborne telling the globe the obvious. After plowing through months of  articles about the upcoming Brexit, we cannot recall anyone on the leave side suggesting it would be smooth sailing if UK voters voted to leave.

3. "It's very clear that the country is going to be poorer as a result of what's happening to the economy," Osborne told the BBC on Tuesday.

"We are absolutely going to have to provide fiscal security to people," he said. "In other words, we're going to have to show the country and the world that the government can live within its means."

This pathetic quote almost deserves no response. We thought that's what they been doing all these years, providing fiscal security to people, the very thing that's been preventing them from living within their means.

4. The chancellor's assessment that more austerity will be needed is the latest body blow to hopes that Britain's economy would be relatively unscathed by a decision to leave the EU.

Again, another straw man ploy. We don't recall anyone suggesting the economy if exit was voted in would get through relatively unscathed.

5. Osborne was once viewed as a possible successor to Prime Minister David Cameron, but he has ruled himself out as a replacement.

Who said prayers never get answered? Here we have a high ranking British bureaucrat pulling an updated Dick Nixon.

More True Now Than Ever

There's a common misconception about elections--one fostered either from purpose or ignorance for years by MSM--that they evolve around liberal versus conservative. Any even cursory study of non-doctored or non-revised history shows that was never the case and the Brexit vote lasers home that point.

The Republican Party founded in Michigan in the 1850s and later to send Abraham Lincoln to the White House was a remnant of the old Whig Party with it's economic agenda firmly fixed by the statist Whig doctrines featuring a huge increase in centralized government power centered on big income tax increases, heavy taxes on liquor and tobacco, huge land grants and monetary handouts to railroads and the reinstatement of protective tariffs.

A recent musical Broadway hit that celebrated Federalist Alexander Hamilton gained much praise for its PC rather than its historical accuracy. The Hamiltonian Higher Federalists Party preceded the Whig Party, followed then by the new Republican Party, all sharing their common love of a central bank and for big centralized government.

The other side of that ledger, as Murray Rothbard in his, "The Case Against the Fed," puts it:  "Ranged against this powerful group of nationalists was an equally powerful movement dedicated to laissez-faire, free markets, free trade, ultra-minimal and decentralized government, and....a hard money system based squarely on gold and silver, with banks shorn of all special privileges and hopefully confined to 100-percent specie banking."

This group, as Rothbard notes, "comprised Jeffersonian Democratic-Republican and then the Jacksonian Democratic Party, and their potential constituents permeated every occupation except those of banker and banker's favorite elite clientele."  Jackson was a huge opponent of central banking and laid to rest the second rendition of a harmful U.S. central bank in the 1830s before Wall Street bankers led by J Pierpont Morgan and others reopened Pandora's box in 1913 with the current version.

If there is anything even remotely redolent of laissez-faire, free markets, free trade, ultra-minimal and decentralized government, and a hard money system backed squarely by gold and silver with banks shorn of special privileges...." about the current left-wing controlled Democrat Party we have yet to see it. And the same applies to that Grand Old Party today's neocons on both sides love. You know the ones: military-industrial complex, war and more of the same. Both are corporatism nannies. It's just a matter of degree.

This is why the recent Brexit vote is so important and symbolic. With the birth of the Internet people now know they are both the same; however, like any good, profitable drug dealer they're simply pushing their brand of elitism. Shackles come in many sizes and names.

The WSJ, a shill for the Grand Old Party, recently printed this canard: "Elections are usually fought on the familiar terrain of liberal versus conservative and big government versus small. That is now shifting to nationalist versus internationalist and ordinary workers versus elites."

The truth is, as the example above notes, it's always been ordinary workers versus the elites and its history goes back a long, long way. A while back in U.S. political history a third party candidate characterized these two parties, saying: "There's not a dime's worth of difference between the two."

Since then we've suffered some serious inflation, but the concept is more true now than ever. And that's just one reason why Brexit has so fired up the fear meters of the entrenched.