Removing The Veil

Well, tomorrow is the day Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers her much awaited speech. Given all the attention it's getting it would be interesting to know how many times she's gone over or revised it. We will probably never know. Parsing words is rumored one of the primary prerequisites to getting the head job.

What we do know is the rising chorus of those who've been saying the Fed's incompetence and maybe even ego and arrogance caused this mess is growing. Further proof of that surfaced in the past few days. The feelings expressed in the opening paragraph of the below article are hardly new to us. We have been writing about what we call The Fed Problem a long time. As this article concluded the only thing the Fed knows is more of the same. Doubling down and ZIRP are cuts from the same bolt of cloth. One could call it, Double Your Pleasure and Double The Pain.

.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-25/hilsenrath-slams-fed-years-fed-missteps-fueled-disillusion-help-explain-us-populism.

For years we have argued that the main reasons for rising social anger, populist sentiment, and general disillusion with the US economy boils down to one thing: the Federal Reserve, which as we have argued since 2009, has approached the crisis aftermath in a wrong way, generated unprecedented wealth inequality through its monetary policy favoring a tiny fraction of the population - those invested in risk assets - and instead of reflating another debt bubble, should have allowed the system to undergo a debt purge and start afresh.

For this we have been branded perpetual conspiracy theorists and permabears.

Moments ago, none other than the WSJ's Fed "whisperer", Jon Hilsenrath admitted these allegations have been correct in an article titled "Years of Fed Missteps Fueled Disillusion With the Economy and Washington", and which as the WSJ notes "helps explain one of the US's most unpredictable, populist political years."

In other words, it is the Fed's policies that have led to the current failed economic regime (as noted again yesterday by Citi's Matt King and today by former Fed governor Kevin Warsh), and which are responsible for the rise of such candidates as Donald Trump. Which, incidentally, is also something we have predicted over the years would happen. As such we are delighted that one of the most popular establishment Fed watchers now agrees with our assessment.
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You have to remember it's not easy for people to admit their mistakes and the longer one goes without admitting them the tougher it gets. Taking on a big, indifferent, uncoordinated government bureaucratic monster like the Fed won't get you a lot of RSVP A-list offers from the entrenched elitist crowd.

Overnight

Ahead of Friday's Yellen talk the appetite for risk has seemed to dry up as the Nikkei soften slightly, 0.2%, to trade at 16,562.49 by mid-morning after Wall Street showed some weakness Wednesday. For the Nikkei this past week it's been about narrowness or range bound as the index loitered between 16,452.01 and 16,714.61 awaiting Yellen's remarks.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was trading flat, while the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.1% lower and the South Korean Kospi added 0.1%. The missing theme here is direction as investors shy away from any real risk taking. The WSJ reported: Declines overnight in commodities prices weighed on the major commodities-producing countries, such as Australia. The S&P/ASX 200 was last down 0.1%, while in Singapore, the Straits Times Index added 0.1%. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was unchanged at $49.04 a barrel.

The Japanese yen was relatively flat against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, but analysts expect that the dollar could strengthen on Ms. Yellen’s upcoming comments. 

In China liquidity was the question as the Peoples Bank of China added early Thursday morning some when it more money into the financial system some analysts were speculating to calm investor nerves. According to reports, the bank replaced seven-day reverse purchase agreements with 14-day one to the tune of 80 billion yuan in its daily money market system. The yen remained flat against the dollar but many think that could change depending on Yellen's message.

You Do The Math

Here's what we're talking about with big pharma and their foot soldiers.

A one-year-old boy was prescribed antidepressants by Britain’s National Health Service (NHS), it has emerged.

NHS Tayside in Dundee, Scotland, prescribed the medication to the child in 2014, according to figures obtained by the Dundee Evening Telegraph.

The Trust prescribed anti-depressants to 450 children over a five-month period between January and May this year.

Figures reveal the most common age group to be given antidepressants were children aged between 14 and 17 and that girls are more likely to be prescribed the drug than boys.

Although very young children are sometimes prescribed antidepressants for problems including bed-wetting and chronic pain, NHS guidelines state that under 18s should not be given the drug.

“Antidepressants are a type of medication used to treat clinical depression, or prevent it from recurring. However, they can also be used to treat a wide range of medical conditions, such as chronic pain and anxiety disorders,” a spokesperson for NHS Tayside said.

“If appropriate for individual patients, antidepressants are prescribed and often used in combination with therapy to treat more severe depression, or other mental health conditions caused by emotional distress.

There's not a dollar big pharma doesn't covet. Couple the above with this story.

The pharmaceutical company that distributes the EpiPen is also a Clinton Foundation donor.

Hillary Clinton criticized the company, Mylan, on Wednesday, calling its price hikes of the life-saving medical device “outrageous.”

“It’s just the latest troubling example of a company taking advantage of its consumers,” said Clinton.

But those remarks highlight Clinton’s radio silence on the price of the EpiPen, which has grown steadily since 2007, when Mylan acquired rights to sell the 50-year-old drug.

EpiPen injections, which help stop potentially fatal allergic reactions, cost $57 in 2007. They now run $609. According to CNBC, the price of EpiPens has increased at a steady rate in those nine years.

As of May 2011, the price was $165. That rose to $350 in 2014 and $461 last year. You cm due the math on these numbers. Inflation is like everything else; it depends on who is paying it.

Read more: dailycaller.com/2016/08/24/company-gouging-price-of-epipens-is-a-clinton-foundation-donor-and-partner

Big And Powerful

Big is powerful and powerful is often dangerous.

Yes, we're blogging on Google. Google is big, powerful and if this article from The Guardian has any validity and we think it might, is becoming dangerous. Once a penthouse occupant, the rights of privacy in this nations have gone in a relatively short time to the outhouse.

.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jun/23/google-eavesdropping-tool-installed-computers-without-permission.

Privacy advocates claim always-listening component was involuntarily activated within Chromium, potentially exposing private conversations

Privacy campaigners and open source developers are up in arms over the secret installing of Google software which is capable of listening in on conversations held in front of a computer.

First spotted by open source developers, the Chromium browser – the open source basis for Google’s Chrome – began remotely installing audio-snooping code that was capable of listening to users.

It was designed to support Chrome’s new “OK, Google” hotword detection – which makes the computer respond when you talk to it – but was installed, and, some users have claimed, it is activated on computers without their permission.

“Without consent, Google’s code had downloaded a black box of code that – according to itself – had turned on the microphone and was actively listening to your room,” said Rick Falkvinge, the Pirate party founder, in a blog post. “Which means that your computer had been stealth configured to send what was being said in your room to somebody else, to a private company in another country, without your consent or knowledge, an audio transmission triggered by … an unknown and unverifiable set of conditions.”

Google to exclude 'revenge porn' from internet searches

 

Read more

The feature is installed by default as part of Google’s Chrome browser. But open source advocates are up in arms about it also being installed with the open source variant Chromium, because the listening code is considered to be “black box”, not part of the open source audit process.

“We don’t know and can’t know what this black box does,” said Falkvinge. 

Reports floated about a while back that Google aided Clinton with deleting her State Department e-mails. We can't confirm that and we're noth charging it, but with all hacking going go and other  reported instances what many claim are privacy invasions, it hardly fits into the science fiction mode today. Americans and, in part thanks to the EU, people around the globe are being invaded not by outer space aliens but the food, thought and behavior police.

Google responded to complaints via its developer boards. It said: “While we do download the hotword module on startup, we do not activate it unless you opt in to hotwording.”

However, reports from developers indicate otherwise.

After having identified Chromium as the culprit, developer Ofer Zelig said in a blog post: “While I was working I thought ‘I’m noticing that an LED goes on and off, on the corner of my eyesight [webcam]’. And after a few times when it just seemed weird, I sat to watch for it and saw it happening. Every few seconds or so.”

Google also blamed the Linux distribution Debian for downloading the non-open source component with Chromium automatically, rather than Google Chrome.

“The key here is that Chromium is not a Google product. We do not directly distribute it, or make any guarantees with respect to compliance with various open source policies,” Google developer mgiuca said.

Falkvinge countered Google’s explanations saying: “The default install will still wiretap your room without your consent, unless you opt out, and more importantly, know that you need to opt out, which is nowhere a reasonable requirement.” He says a hardware switch to disable the microphone and camera built into most computers is needed.

Maybe Chrome is the search engine you want to use after all?

Our View

The CDC is like MSM. If it bleeds it leads.

In plain English, the Center for Disease Control needs crises to justify its huge bureaucratic turf. Here turf spells existence and taxpayer dough.

Acetycholinesterase, also known as ACHE, is a central nervous system enzyme, the primary cholinesterase in the body. It catalyzes the breakdown of acteylcholine and other choline esters that function as neurotransmitters. So where do we find this stuff, a most likely place, neuromuscular junctions and chemical synapses sensitive to choline that are responsible for transmission.

Transmission is the key word here. Think hacking or the Cold War term jamming. What? Signals or transmissions. So ACHE is, like Arnold, a terminator. It blocks synaptic transmissions. Bug, bird or man, without these transmissions you have a problem. Last we looked bird and man were mammals. And then you bring in another term from the Cold War era, 1953, the discovery of what's known as DEET, a mosquito and insect repellent.

Are you getting the picture yet. So now we fast forward to a French 2009 study: "We've found that DEET is not simply a behavior-modifying chemical but also inhibits the activity of a key central nervous system enzyme, acetycholinesterase, in both insects and mammals." Here's more. It is the primary target used by organophosphorous substances in nerve agents and pesticides.

So how do we know know this? Well, it's in all the textbooks and it's also on Wikipedia. But a more compelling reason is nearly 30 years of practicing medicine and seeing patients with a variety of exposure to industrial and non-industrial chemicals. It comes with what we all know as the workplace, the economic engine for it all.

The next genie that pops out of the bottle and is most difficult to get back is, how much exposure is dangerous. Though the powers that rule will deny it, the answer is the same as that applies to the stock market and when it will tank, nobody really knows.

So how dangerous is this so-called new Zika virus nearly everyone is getting upset about. Yes, it reportedly disfigures fetuses. Yes, it reportedly causes microcephaly in newborns, but we've yet to see the scientific studies substantiating this. Misconstrue not, we're not playing down the seriousness of these things.

DEET is much like a cocktail, with more than one ingredient in that serving. If bacteria can became super bugs via mutations, why not mosquitoes? So the cocktail gets more complex. Recently a physician went of one of the major news networks and suggested that DEET should be the "new perfume for Miami," an area with an apparent Zita outbreak.

But here's what the CDC's own website on the matter says, according to what we've seen and read:

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states on its website that most people who contract Zika do not have any symptoms, and when they do, they are typically mild and include things like joint and muscle pain, headaches and fever.

"People usually don't get sick enough to go to the hospital, and they very rarely die of Zika," the CDC says. "Once a person has been infected with Zika, they are likely to be protected from future infections." 

There are now pictures in the mass media of mass spraying going on in certain areas. Sure we now have had some deaths, not something anyone wanted. All the facts are not in on those yet either. So what you might be seeing here is the usual reaction of big government. To capture or get the few you poison the many.

That's our view. We hope you know yours.

The Road To Serfdom

The term war has many meanings, not all of which have to include hostile or violent.

A boycott is a peaceful war to express your opinion about the services you've been promised but nearly never get from big business. It is also another way--before it is banned, and don't think they won't go there--to let corporations know how you feel about corporations that financially support firms and ideas that threaten your liberty and freedom of movement and expression.

The recent Olympics was clearly a case of this. Sports Illustrated's recent cover featured three exceptional gold metal winner from politically accepted sports. Coca Cola, not by any means alone here, has displayed similar behavior. Yet there were other gold metal winners, exceptionable in what they did in Rio, who are shunned because their sports are not PC. Misconstrue not, these are political decisions.

Big banks and big bankers are a case in point. Responsible as they are today for many of the globe's financial woes, they're just another species of politicians, promising much for your money but delivering little. They do all they can with the technology spurt to get you, the customer, to do their work for them. A few years back the complaint was about jobs getting outsourced to foreign countries. Today it's a form of internal outsourcing of non-paying jobs right to your home.

Think of it as another branch of ZIRP. Free labor. It holds their costs down and buoys their profits and those big bonuses. Like inexpensive Beverly Hills attorneys, big banks and service is an oxymoron. Your purchasing power is what they're after. It's way beyond greed. It's the road to serfdom. And you've been wheedled and ultimately forced there by the magical term convenience. But prices at convenience places are always higher. Check out a paycheck cashing place. Or buying an airlines ticket at the last minute.

Nothing wrong with this if you get the service you're paying for since it's about freedom of choice. But when someone can't get a bank account or a loan, what's left is called a monopoly. And that's what big banking wants, a legalized monopoly. It's their way or else.

There's an old saying if you snooze you lose. That might explain why big pharma and their cohorts in medicine have half the nation between the ages 10 and 45 on anti-depressants and anti-angst pills.
Snooze if you must while you still have the freedom to check that box. But like the Tooth Fairy, free lunches don't exist. Serfdom does.

Reverse Asset Bubbles

We have written before many times about the accident waiting to happen in many underfunded state retirement funds. One of the ones we mentioned was Illinois. Victims of poor government stewardship, political spendthrifts and the last several years NIRP and ZIRP courtesy of  feckless central bankers, it's an ugly scene. One of the problems is another lowering their expected return on pension investments. Just wo years ago they lowered their expected return and are now abut to invoke another one.

Here's an excerpt from zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-23/illinois-warns-crippling-tax-hikes-devastating-impact-if-largest-pension-fund-admits.

Defined Benefit Pension Plans are, almost by definition, a ponzi scheme. Current assets are used to pay current claims in full in spite of insufficient funding to pay future liabilities: classic Ponzi.  But unlike wall street and corporate ponzi schemes no one goes to jail here because the establishment is complicit.  Everyone from government officials to union bosses are incentivized to maintain the status quo - public employees get to sleep better at night thinking they have a "retirement plan," public legislators get to be re-elected by union membership while pretending their states are solvent and union bosses get to keep their jobs while hiding the truth from employees.
We even published a note several weeks ago titled "Establishment Tries To Suppress "Dissident Actuaries" Explosive Report On Public Pensions," which pointed out that the American Academy of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries killed a report that would have warned about the implications of lowering long-term expected returns on pension assets.  Apparently the truth was just too scary.
Similarly, Janus' Bill Gross has been warning of the unintended consequences of low interest rates for years, and reiterated his concerns to Bloomberg recently:

Fund managers that have been counting on returns of 7 percent to 8 percent may need to adjust that to around 4 percent, Gross, who runs the $1.5 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said during an Aug. 5 interview on Bloomberg TV. Public pensions, including the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest in the U.S., are reporting gains of less than 1 percent for the fiscal year ended June 30.

Two weeks ago, we decided to take a look at what would happen if all federal, state and local pension plans decided to heed the advice of Mr. Gross. As one might suspect, the results were abysmal.  We conservatively assume that public pensions are currently $2.0 trillion underfunded ($4.5 trillion of assets for $6.5 trillion of liabilities) even though we've seen estimates that suggest $3.5 trillion or more might be more appropriate.  We then adjusted the return on asset assumption down from the 7.5% used by most pensions to the 4.0% suggested by Mr. Gross and found that true public pension underfunding could be closer to $5.5 trillion, or over 2.5x more than current estimates.  Others have suggested that returns should be closer to risk-free rates which would imply an even more draconian $8.4 trillion underfunding.  


This is the kind of thing that should tell you, if it hasn't already, put your faith in politicians and government bureaucrats at your own peril. These are assets bubbles in reverse, nevertheless caused by bankers, and when they unwind will make lots of folks poorer.

 

Overnight

Some might call it the end of summer doldrums, others investors waiting to see what Fed Chair Janet Yellen says on Friday and still others blame low interest rates pushing investors further out on the equity limb looking for yield.

The Nikkei rose 0.7% Wednesday helped by a weaker yen and a stronger dollar in a mixed market. Since the first of the year the Nikkei has lost 13% versus the S&P 500's 7% upswing, trailing most of its global peers in 2016. It always helps to get a little help from your friends and that's what happened earlier this week.
 
Reuters reported: On Monday and Tuesday, the BOJ bought 1.2 billion yen of exchange traded funds on each day focused on companies which support investment in physical and human capital. The central bank had bought 70.7 billion yen of ETFs on August 4 and 10, respectively.
"A level of more than 70 billion yen in buying can be as big as a launch of a mutual fund," said Norihiro Fujito, a senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. "It's supporting the market, but the Nikkei could be trading 1,000-1,500 points lower than the current level when the currency market sees the 100-yen-per-dollar level."

In  other markets, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.2%, while the South Korea Kospi was down 0.3%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.7%, with the Shanghai Composite Index flat.Trading volume was another issue, light over what some view as the end of summer holidays.The broader Topix gained 0.5 percent to 1,304.25 and the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 advanced 0.5 percent to 11,717.82. In the oil markets, the WSJ noted: oil prices were down in Asian trade early Wednesday, after the industry group American Petroleum Institute said that its data showed an increase of 4.5 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles last week. Still, prices rose in U.S. trade Tuesday on speculation that Iran might cooperate with other global exporters to keep oil prices from falling.

Official U.S. oil data by the Energy Information Administration will be released later Wednesday to shed more light on the state of U.S. stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate crude prices were recently down 53 cents at $47.57 a barrel in Asia trade, while Brent crude prices were down 41 cents at $49.55 a barrel.

Higher U.S. interest when and if the come will most likely pull money away from Asian markets giving American consumers a chance to fill up their garages with more cheap imported junk. Gold was down slightly at $1336.80

Overnight

Call it reluctance or maybe even directional hope, but investors seem somewhat frozen until Fed Chair Yellen unleashes her latest economic pablum Friday at Jackson Hole.

 Reuters reported: The whole world seems to have hushed ahead of comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen at the central bank's annual meeting in Jackson Hole on Friday. Investors still doubt the stars will align for a hike anytime soon, so a hawkish tone from Yellen would challenge that equanimity.

"Ever so slowly, the market does seem to be reluctantly acknowledging the chorus of senior Fed speakers who have suggested recently that a 2016 rate hike is still quite probable and September is 'live'," wrote analysts at ANZ in a note.

Markets are still not pricing in full point rate hike until September 2017. The odds of a hike later next month are also less than convincing to many investors and the leaves the focus next on December. Wall Street had a weak day on Monday with low volume as investors show continued concern 
about the impact of weakening oil prices and the Fed's next move on interest rates in the coming months. False signals have become a staple of the Yellen-led Fed.

The Nikkei stock index was down 0.3 percent at 16,557.41 in late morning trade, dampened by the effects of a stronger currency, the Hang Seng off slightly at 22941.14, S&P ASX 200 up at 5555.1 and Shanghai positive narrowly at 3099.39. The dollar was down 0.1 percent at 100.22 yen, not far from levels under 100 yen touched last week. Gold traded at $1336. 80, down $1.80.

Know Who You're Watching

What is the definition of a paradox?

Here's one we have borrowed from noted gold bug and market bear, Jim Grant, editor of the longstanding Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

The new rules with respect to financial reform have absorbed not only forests worth of paper but also the time and attention of legions of lawyers. If you talk to a banking executive what you hear is that the banks have been overwhelmed by the need to hire compliance and regulatory people. This is especially bearing on the smaller banks. I think that’s part of the story of the lackluster recovery: Monetary policy has been radically open in the creation of new credit. But it has been radically restrictive with regard to risk taking in the private world.
zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-22/jim-grant-will-turn-out-very-bad-many-people 
 
The last part of the paragraph is an excellent example of a paradox and one that as Grant later explains captures the personalty and makeup of Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Janet Yellen is by no means an impulsive person. According to the « Wall Street Journal», she arrives for a flight at the airport hours early – and that’s plural! So this is a most deliberative and risk averse person. Also, as a labor economist, she’s a most empathetic person. She believes what most interventionist minded economists believe: They have very little faith in the institution of markets and they don’t believe that the price mechanism is anything special. They want to normalize rates and yet they can always find an excuse for not doing so. We have been hearing for years now that the next time, the next quarter, the next fiscal year they will act. So I believe what I’m seeing: None of these days the Federal Funds Rate will go higher than 0.5%. I can’t see that happening.

Once upon a time before they started putting names on the back of uniforms at the ballpark you had to buy a program to tell the players. Know who you're watching if you really want to know what's going on is probably a pretty good rule.