Monday, August 22, 2016

Know Who You're Watching

What is the definition of a paradox?

Here's one we have borrowed from noted gold bug and market bear, Jim Grant, editor of the longstanding Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

The new rules with respect to financial reform have absorbed not only forests worth of paper but also the time and attention of legions of lawyers. If you talk to a banking executive what you hear is that the banks have been overwhelmed by the need to hire compliance and regulatory people. This is especially bearing on the smaller banks. I think that’s part of the story of the lackluster recovery: Monetary policy has been radically open in the creation of new credit. But it has been radically restrictive with regard to risk taking in the private world.
zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-22/jim-grant-will-turn-out-very-bad-many-people 
 
The last part of the paragraph is an excellent example of a paradox and one that as Grant later explains captures the personalty and makeup of Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Janet Yellen is by no means an impulsive person. According to the « Wall Street Journal», she arrives for a flight at the airport hours early – and that’s plural! So this is a most deliberative and risk averse person. Also, as a labor economist, she’s a most empathetic person. She believes what most interventionist minded economists believe: They have very little faith in the institution of markets and they don’t believe that the price mechanism is anything special. They want to normalize rates and yet they can always find an excuse for not doing so. We have been hearing for years now that the next time, the next quarter, the next fiscal year they will act. So I believe what I’m seeing: None of these days the Federal Funds Rate will go higher than 0.5%. I can’t see that happening.

Once upon a time before they started putting names on the back of uniforms at the ballpark you had to buy a program to tell the players. Know who you're watching if you really want to know what's going on is probably a pretty good rule. 


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