Schiff Firm About Bearish View
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2013/05/30/peter-schiff-doubles-down-on-doomsday-views/
US Equities Stable While Japanese Swoon
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324412604578514741159145594.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_markets
Rising Interest Rates
http://news.investors.com/investing-etfs/053013-658214-rising-interest-rates-hit-reit-etfs.htm?ref=HPLNews
Interest Rates A Different View
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2013/05/31/Edgy-About-Interest-Rates-Dont-Pop-the-Xanax-Yet.aspx#page1
Unhappy With Bernanke
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2013/05/30/critic-of-big-banks-wants-fisher-to-head-fed/
Mixed Signals
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/05/japan-more-output-less-deflation.html#more
Learn What From Your Mistakes?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/30/why-you-never-learn-from-your-investment-mistakes.aspx
Losing Money The Government Way
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/DoE-Lost-Billions-in-Deal-with-Tesla.html
Beef Prices Up
http://investorplace.com/2013/05/beef-prices-at-all-time-high-and-expected-to-rise/
Two Kinds Of Oil
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/30/oil-fields-under-olive-groves-offer-italy-economic?ref=hp&t=commodities
Thursday, May 30, 2013
LATE DAY READS
Greater Risk In Market
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-01/fed-s-kocherlakota-sees-greater-concern-about-risk-in-markets.html
Tipping Or Turning
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/is-this-the-turning-point
Protracted Bull Market http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Laszlo-Birinyi-stocks-bull-market-higher/2013/05/30/id/507174
Gold Rally Says What? http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/gold-crude-commodities-currencies-euro-dollar/5/30/2013/id/50071
Renters Still In The Market http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2013/05/30/in-many-markets-its-cheaper-to-rent-than-buy-but-thats-not-stopping-home-builders/
Mortgage Rates Up
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/30/real_estate/mortgage-rates-rise/index.html?iid=HP_LN
UPDATE
Back in March we wrote a blurb, Playing the BRICS, about Mendelez, MDLZ, the food company that was part of Kraft's breakup.
The stock hasn't set the globe on fire, though it's up more than 12% on the year. Back then we emphasized the hidden value in the shares. We think it's still there. Value nearly always has some blemishes otherwise it wouldn't be value as in under-appreciated or overlooked.
Overlook the debt, this is a company with upside potential from several catalysts besides its products.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324125504578511432129533160.html?KEYWORDS=Kraft
The stock hasn't set the globe on fire, though it's up more than 12% on the year. Back then we emphasized the hidden value in the shares. We think it's still there. Value nearly always has some blemishes otherwise it wouldn't be value as in under-appreciated or overlooked.
Overlook the debt, this is a company with upside potential from several catalysts besides its products.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324125504578511432129533160.html?KEYWORDS=Kraft
BRIEFS
An old Wall Street saying notes: "When the ducks are quacking, feed 'em."
Well, the quacking as we pointed out yesterday in the bit about "new kid in town," continues. As this WSJ article points out, look for a flood of convertible securities to hit the market as bankers and corporations do what they do best--feed a growing investor appetite.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578513310149956102.html?mod=markets_newsreel
_________
Old soldiers never die and they don't fade away as one famous American general once put it. They just go to Wall Street and make a lot of money.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578513663485449922.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories
Well, the quacking as we pointed out yesterday in the bit about "new kid in town," continues. As this WSJ article points out, look for a flood of convertible securities to hit the market as bankers and corporations do what they do best--feed a growing investor appetite.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578513310149956102.html?mod=markets_newsreel
_________
Old soldiers never die and they don't fade away as one famous American general once put it. They just go to Wall Street and make a lot of money.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578513663485449922.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories
THURSDAY READS
Another View
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/28/dont-believe-new-housing-bubble-hype/
What Most Shun
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-26/gold-bets-reach-five-year-low-with-prices-whipsawed-commodities.html
Trouble Ahead
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/29/10-year-treasury-yield-matches-sp-500-dividend-yield-turning-tables-on-hunt-for-yield/
Bernanke Lost Control
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/29/pimcos-gross-says-bernanke-has-a-lost-a-little-control/
Housing Bubble
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/5/29/housing-bubble-ii-institutional-investors-instead-of-first-t.html
Chinese Acquire Big Grocery Firm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324412604578512722044165756.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/28/dont-believe-new-housing-bubble-hype/
What Most Shun
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-26/gold-bets-reach-five-year-low-with-prices-whipsawed-commodities.html
Trouble Ahead
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/29/10-year-treasury-yield-matches-sp-500-dividend-yield-turning-tables-on-hunt-for-yield/
Bernanke Lost Control
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/29/pimcos-gross-says-bernanke-has-a-lost-a-little-control/
Housing Bubble
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/5/29/housing-bubble-ii-institutional-investors-instead-of-first-t.html
Chinese Acquire Big Grocery Firm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324412604578512722044165756.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
BRIEFS
Don't look now but if yesterday's market is any indication, a new kid is in town.
His name: economically sensitive stocks. Yea, those puppies a while back nearly everyone shunned for those safer, dividend-yielding equities like drug and utilities, two groups that have helped boost the market nearly 18% higher this year.
In a low interest rate environment yield and safety became the watchwords for institutional and retail investors. Perhaps now all that has changed. On the other hand, it could muddy the equity waters even worse, making it another is it or isn't the real deal?
__________
TWO SIDES
The trouble is they both can't be correct.
On one side are the strategists who think Bernanke will end the Fed's bond-buying spree sometime this September and that will push the 10-year Treasury note yield up to 2.5% by year end. Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street firm with a long lineage to the Fed, among others, falls in that camp.
In the other camp are those who feel the economy is still weak and the key rests with labor or jobs numbers. They also see stocks, given their strong run-up this year so far, as risky and believe that will provide a buying platform for bonds that keeps yields around 2% as investors try to hedge a market down turn.
As noted they can't both be correct.
_______
It's all in the eyes--as in eye contact.
At least that's what the social experts are saying, not that poets for ages haven't been rhyming the same, according to the WSJ.
Adults today make eye contact about 30%-60% of the time during an average conversation. But to create a real sense of connection, these experts say, we should be making eye contact 60%-70% of the time.
So what's the problem and it isn't just ordinary, subaqueous shyness? Mobile devices for one. Here's more.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324809804578511290822228174.html?mod=ITP_personaljournal_0
His name: economically sensitive stocks. Yea, those puppies a while back nearly everyone shunned for those safer, dividend-yielding equities like drug and utilities, two groups that have helped boost the market nearly 18% higher this year.
In a low interest rate environment yield and safety became the watchwords for institutional and retail investors. Perhaps now all that has changed. On the other hand, it could muddy the equity waters even worse, making it another is it or isn't the real deal?
__________
TWO SIDES
The trouble is they both can't be correct.
On one side are the strategists who think Bernanke will end the Fed's bond-buying spree sometime this September and that will push the 10-year Treasury note yield up to 2.5% by year end. Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street firm with a long lineage to the Fed, among others, falls in that camp.
In the other camp are those who feel the economy is still weak and the key rests with labor or jobs numbers. They also see stocks, given their strong run-up this year so far, as risky and believe that will provide a buying platform for bonds that keeps yields around 2% as investors try to hedge a market down turn.
As noted they can't both be correct.
_______
It's all in the eyes--as in eye contact.
At least that's what the social experts are saying, not that poets for ages haven't been rhyming the same, according to the WSJ.
Adults today make eye contact about 30%-60% of the time during an average conversation. But to create a real sense of connection, these experts say, we should be making eye contact 60%-70% of the time.
So what's the problem and it isn't just ordinary, subaqueous shyness? Mobile devices for one. Here's more.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324809804578511290822228174.html?mod=ITP_personaljournal_0
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
TONGUE IN CHEEK
A while back we wrote a piece about Greece's problems called PLATO'S TREE IS MISSING.
It was February and the weather gets cold that time of year. To keep warm lots of Greeks were burning wood. At the time it might have seemed a little tongue in cheek. It wasn't. Here's a link to another point of view on the subject from a well-respected, well-known energy site.
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/05/23/oil-limits-and-climate-change/
It was February and the weather gets cold that time of year. To keep warm lots of Greeks were burning wood. At the time it might have seemed a little tongue in cheek. It wasn't. Here's a link to another point of view on the subject from a well-respected, well-known energy site.
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/05/23/oil-limits-and-climate-change/
WEDNESDAY READS
An Interesting Read
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/138228.html
Mothers Top Earners
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/05/29/mothers-now-top-earners-in-4-out-10-american-households/
Gold Price Behavior
http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Gold2527s-Price-Behavior-price-of-gold/5/28/2013/id/50039?page=full
Hospitals Can Save Big Bucks
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/05/28/The-Novel-Way-Hospitals-Can-Save-Millions.aspx#page1
Youth Unemployment Trouble In EU
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/28/us-europe-unemployment-idUSBRE94R0D320130528
Not Just Yet
http://news.investors.com/economy/052813-657870-consumer-confidence-case-shiller-home-prices-rise.htm?ref=HPLNews
13 Month High
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-fall-after-housing-10-year-nears-206-2013-05-2
Goal Setting
http://ittybiz.com/how-to-set-goals/
Commodities Provide Some Lift
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323336104578501182311597930.html?mod=ITP_pageone_1
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/138228.html
Mothers Top Earners
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/05/29/mothers-now-top-earners-in-4-out-10-american-households/
Gold Price Behavior
http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Gold2527s-Price-Behavior-price-of-gold/5/28/2013/id/50039?page=full
Hospitals Can Save Big Bucks
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/05/28/The-Novel-Way-Hospitals-Can-Save-Millions.aspx#page1
Youth Unemployment Trouble In EU
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/28/us-europe-unemployment-idUSBRE94R0D320130528
Not Just Yet
http://news.investors.com/economy/052813-657870-consumer-confidence-case-shiller-home-prices-rise.htm?ref=HPLNews
13 Month High
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-fall-after-housing-10-year-nears-206-2013-05-2
Goal Setting
http://ittybiz.com/how-to-set-goals/
Commodities Provide Some Lift
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323336104578501182311597930.html?mod=ITP_pageone_1
Monday, May 27, 2013
A PRIMER
The man who wants to
make an entirely reasonable will dies intestate.
George Bernard Shaw
Perhaps nowhere does Shaw’s dictum better apply than to
markets. Markets never behave reasonably for very long. And they never will if
for no other reason than all the players are human.
Yet that doesn’t excuse investors from acquiring some understanding of the whys and ways markets work. What you really need to know about and understand is 2Cs, 2Ps, 2Ls, 2Vs and one lonely little S. No, this isn’t some esoteric formula or pre-calculus math exercise. But if you can grasp this material you’ll be well on your way to avoiding many of those calculus-like shoals that infest the investing world.
Let’s begin with the 2Cs, credit and correlation. Remember in
Chapter One we discussed credit and the subject cropped up again in the chapter
on bonds. The key to learning is repetition, repetition, repetition. We
mentioned risk. It turns out that credit is somewhat Janus-faced—that is, a
borrower may default, something market pundits call default event risk (Review
chapter on risks!). That’s pretty simple. A borrower, for whatever reasons,
decides to walk.
The other face of credit risk you need to understand more
clearly because it involves that lonely little S mentioned above. But for now,
here’s the answer: even with a loan where there is no defaulter, the lender
incurs something called spread risk. And that’s what the little lonely S stands
for, spread. The spread on the loan the lender makes may widen.
We’ll say it
again, SPREAD! It turns out most things
in life involve a spread of some kind. You purchase 100 shares of XZC
Corporation stock. The shares are quoted at ask 23 ¼ and bid at 23 1/8. The ask
23 ¼ is what you must pay to buy the stock; the bid, 23 1/8 is what you can
sell it for. So obviously, for you to break even or make a profit (commissions
and all other costs aside), the stock has to appreciate in price above the
asking price.
The difference then between the bid and the ask price is called the spread. Spreads in the stock market vary according to where the stocks are traded and according to market capitalization (Remember that term?). Usually larger stocks, large capitalization stocks, have smaller spreads, or bid and ask prices, than small cap stocks if for no other reason than small companies are viewed by the market as being more risky.
TUESDAY READS
How Important Is This Region?
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10003
What Say The Bears?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bears-cite-performance-chasing-as-stocks-rise-2013-05-24
Japanese Turmoil
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/28/us-japan-economy-boj-idUSBRE94R03X20130528
Delay In Canadian Rate Hike?
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=af28788f-d99a-4e15-954d-7ef487bf3b45
How Goes Consumers
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-keeping-economy-on-track-2013-05-26?dist=lbeforebell
VIX: Is It Antiquated?
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/27/vix-readers-start-to-weigh-on-stock-market-uptrend?ref=hp
Japan: A Different View
http://www.marctomarket.com/
Job Cuts
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-27/u-k-banks-cut-189-000-with-employment-at-nine-year-low.html
Short Squeeze
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/24/how-to-spot-the-next-short-squeeze/
Fear And Greed
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=SF_INV_FG
Deals
http://money.cnn.com/gallery/investing/2013/05/20/best-deals-investing.moneymag/index.html
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10003
What Say The Bears?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bears-cite-performance-chasing-as-stocks-rise-2013-05-24
Japanese Turmoil
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/28/us-japan-economy-boj-idUSBRE94R03X20130528
Delay In Canadian Rate Hike?
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=af28788f-d99a-4e15-954d-7ef487bf3b45
How Goes Consumers
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-keeping-economy-on-track-2013-05-26?dist=lbeforebell
VIX: Is It Antiquated?
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/27/vix-readers-start-to-weigh-on-stock-market-uptrend?ref=hp
Japan: A Different View
http://www.marctomarket.com/
Job Cuts
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-27/u-k-banks-cut-189-000-with-employment-at-nine-year-low.html
Short Squeeze
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/24/how-to-spot-the-next-short-squeeze/
Fear And Greed
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=SF_INV_FG
Deals
http://money.cnn.com/gallery/investing/2013/05/20/best-deals-investing.moneymag/index.html
Sunday, May 26, 2013
WEEKEND READS
The Liar Game
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/05/24/7-Ways-to-Spot-a-Liar-at-Work.aspx#page1
The Pain In Spain http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/5/25/black-market-or-bust-the-stark-choice-facing-many-of-spains.html
Reality Sets In? http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/26/us-economy-global-idUSBRE94P0D820130526
Managers, Yes. Traders, no.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/24/investing/hedge-funds-women-babies/index.html
Job-Cutting The Greek Way
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/top-job-cutter-in-greece-worries-about-going-too-far-a-901234.html
Stock Market's Surge?
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/why-is-the-stock-market-going-up
Share Buy Backs Support Market
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/05/great-graphic-focus-on-us-equties.html#more
Dementia Cure
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2013/05/23/study-vitamin-b-could-curb-dementia/
Tyranny Creeps On
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/052413-657747-creeping-tyranny-working-against-reporters-and-churches.htm?ref=HPLNews
The Pain In Spain http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/5/25/black-market-or-bust-the-stark-choice-facing-many-of-spains.html
Reality Sets In? http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/26/us-economy-global-idUSBRE94P0D820130526
Managers, Yes. Traders, no.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/24/investing/hedge-funds-women-babies/index.html
Job-Cutting The Greek Way
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/top-job-cutter-in-greece-worries-about-going-too-far-a-901234.html
Stock Market's Surge?
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/why-is-the-stock-market-going-up
Share Buy Backs Support Market
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/05/great-graphic-focus-on-us-equties.html#more
Dementia Cure
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2013/05/23/study-vitamin-b-could-curb-dementia/
Tyranny Creeps On
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/052413-657747-creeping-tyranny-working-against-reporters-and-churches.htm?ref=HPLNews
Thursday, May 23, 2013
BRIEFS
It's the blue faces the red again.
Only this time it's about jobs. You recall them. In the last four or so years not too many new ones around. So it's interesting to see which states are relating more new jobs, the red or the blue. And the winner is:
http://news.investors.com/052313-657271-red-states-beat-blue-states-on-economy-jobs.htm?ref=HPLNews
---
China's manufacturing continues it's lukewarm ways. Some analysts blame China for Japan's woes as both EU and Japanese equities take hit on the Chinese report.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323336104578498902464473978.html
---
Only this time it's about jobs. You recall them. In the last four or so years not too many new ones around. So it's interesting to see which states are relating more new jobs, the red or the blue. And the winner is:
http://news.investors.com/052313-657271-red-states-beat-blue-states-on-economy-jobs.htm?ref=HPLNews
---
China's manufacturing continues it's lukewarm ways. Some analysts blame China for Japan's woes as both EU and Japanese equities take hit on the Chinese report.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323336104578498902464473978.html
---
THURSDAY READS
Scandals Good Or Bad?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/are-obama-s-scandals-good-for-investors-.html
Meaningful Day?
http://investorplace.com/2013/05/daily-stock-market-news-will-the-key-reversal-day-be-the-markets-kiss-of-death/
Stand Pat Or Go
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/23/will-japans-retail-investors-stay-or-flee/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=MarketsMain
Bernanke Comment
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/05/market-responds-dramatically-to-bernanke.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/are-obama-s-scandals-good-for-investors-.html
Meaningful Day?
http://investorplace.com/2013/05/daily-stock-market-news-will-the-key-reversal-day-be-the-markets-kiss-of-death/
Stand Pat Or Go
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/23/will-japans-retail-investors-stay-or-flee/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=MarketsMain
Bernanke Comment
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/05/market-responds-dramatically-to-bernanke.html
New Home Prices
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2013/05/23/april-new-home-sales/2354051/
At It Again
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/23/news/economy/mortgage-backed-securities.pr.fortune/index.html
At It Again
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/23/news/economy/mortgage-backed-securities.pr.fortune/index.html
Your Credit Score
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
TUESDAY READS
Chinese Equities And Commodities
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ryan-puplava/china-stock-market-commodities
Used Car Prices Fall
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2013/05/20/used-car-prices-fall/2208637/
Bargain Hunters
http://news.investors.com/business-the-new-america/052013-656829-gnc-to-see-profit-boost-from-new-members.htm
Jobless Youth
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-failing-to-combat-youth-unemployment-a-900621.html
Hiring
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/20/whats-holding-back-hiring/
French Economic Woes
http://investorplace.com/2013/05/france-needs-hollande-to-keep-his-word-on-economic-offensive/
Lower Gas Prices Retail Sales
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/20/news/economy/gas-prices/index.html?iid=SF_E_LN
Don't Bet On It
http://ondline.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324767004578484913679967772.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_personalfinance
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ryan-puplava/china-stock-market-commodities
Used Car Prices Fall
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2013/05/20/used-car-prices-fall/2208637/
Bargain Hunters
http://news.investors.com/business-the-new-america/052013-656829-gnc-to-see-profit-boost-from-new-members.htm
Jobless Youth
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-failing-to-combat-youth-unemployment-a-900621.html
Hiring
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/20/whats-holding-back-hiring/
French Economic Woes
http://investorplace.com/2013/05/france-needs-hollande-to-keep-his-word-on-economic-offensive/
Lower Gas Prices Retail Sales
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/20/news/economy/gas-prices/index.html?iid=SF_E_LN
Don't Bet On It
http://ondline.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324767004578484913679967772.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_personalfinance
Monday, May 20, 2013
DEBASING CURRENCIES
If you think debasing currencies isn't closely watched, read the following link from the WSJ.
Often referred to as "beggar thy neighbor," it's something that frequently cause central banks to intervene in the market to protect their goods. Here you have tiny Taiwan active in the market trying to prevent their currency from appreciating too much.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324767004578488682893945140.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_1
Often referred to as "beggar thy neighbor," it's something that frequently cause central banks to intervene in the market to protect their goods. Here you have tiny Taiwan active in the market trying to prevent their currency from appreciating too much.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324767004578488682893945140.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_1
MONDAY READS
That Leaving Feeling
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323398204578489261685554102.html?mod=ITP_pageone_1
TBTF
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/too-big-to-fail-is-now-bigger-than-ever-andy-xie-2013-05-19?pagenumber=2
Mistake Or Good Buy
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/19/yahoo-mistake-tumblr/
Global Connections
http://www.itau.com.br/itaubba-pt/analises-economicas/publicacoes/global-connections/developing-euphoria-felix-zulauf
Bernanke Testifies
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100749333
Read With Care
http://www.learnbonds.com/be-a-smart-investment-news-consumer/
Yield Curve
http://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2013/05/17/what-is-the-probability-of-a-u-s-recession-in-the-next-12-months/
Equities For Lunch
http://www.seeitmarket.com/3-reasons-investors-are-eating-us-equities-for-breakfast-13309/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323398204578489261685554102.html?mod=ITP_pageone_1
TBTF
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/too-big-to-fail-is-now-bigger-than-ever-andy-xie-2013-05-19?pagenumber=2
Mistake Or Good Buy
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/19/yahoo-mistake-tumblr/
Global Connections
http://www.itau.com.br/itaubba-pt/analises-economicas/publicacoes/global-connections/developing-euphoria-felix-zulauf
Bernanke Testifies
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100749333
Read With Care
http://www.learnbonds.com/be-a-smart-investment-news-consumer/
Yield Curve
http://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2013/05/17/what-is-the-probability-of-a-u-s-recession-in-the-next-12-months/
Equities For Lunch
http://www.seeitmarket.com/3-reasons-investors-are-eating-us-equities-for-breakfast-13309/
Saturday, May 18, 2013
BRIEFS
We've talked about this sector before, so we won't labor the point. This article lists some of the reasons we would own parts of this sector before not after it rebounds. And it will rebound.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-reasons-why-resources-stocks-are-a-natural-bet-2013-05-16?pagenumber=2
-----
rle
Threat of Default": US hits debt limit on Saturday, but by using a slew of shuffle maneuvers, shell games, tricks, and devices, the US won't actually run out of money until "after Labor Day," Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Congress in a letter. In his previous statement, the US would be "okay until Labor Day." Today, he was more frantic. He begged Congress to get its act together and do something "sooner rather than later" to “remove the threat of default.” In its infinite wisdom, Congress had suspended the debt limit till May 18, rather than dealing with it. The debt, though still over the limit, declined in April and early May; tax extractions were fattened by asset bubbles. But since May 10, the debt has once again been rising.
Testosterone Pit
----
One thing nobody seems to focus on is services inflation. It’s slower to turn both up and down. Services inflation got up to 4.7% in June 2008. It dropped below 2% in February 2009 and stayed below until August 2011. We’ve been mostly above since and reached a high of 2.9% in February 2013. The last two months have backed off to 2.6%. This compares to 0.5% for the regular CPI. Since November 2012, services inflation has been stronger than overall inflation. Maybe this is a good thing for an economy that’s 80-90% services and shows demand; but, I don’t really think so for an economy with a coincident index growth rate of 1.4%. If the Fed really want’s 2% inflation, they already have it for most of the economy. Why they focus on core and these other measures doesn’t make much sense.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-reasons-why-resources-stocks-are-a-natural-bet-2013-05-16?pagenumber=2
-----
rle
Threat of Default": US hits debt limit on Saturday, but by using a slew of shuffle maneuvers, shell games, tricks, and devices, the US won't actually run out of money until "after Labor Day," Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Congress in a letter. In his previous statement, the US would be "okay until Labor Day." Today, he was more frantic. He begged Congress to get its act together and do something "sooner rather than later" to “remove the threat of default.” In its infinite wisdom, Congress had suspended the debt limit till May 18, rather than dealing with it. The debt, though still over the limit, declined in April and early May; tax extractions were fattened by asset bubbles. But since May 10, the debt has once again been rising.
Testosterone Pit
----
One thing nobody seems to focus on is services inflation. It’s slower to turn both up and down. Services inflation got up to 4.7% in June 2008. It dropped below 2% in February 2009 and stayed below until August 2011. We’ve been mostly above since and reached a high of 2.9% in February 2013. The last two months have backed off to 2.6%. This compares to 0.5% for the regular CPI. Since November 2012, services inflation has been stronger than overall inflation. Maybe this is a good thing for an economy that’s 80-90% services and shows demand; but, I don’t really think so for an economy with a coincident index growth rate of 1.4%. If the Fed really want’s 2% inflation, they already have it for most of the economy. Why they focus on core and these other measures doesn’t make much sense.
Daily Speculations
WEEKEND READS
More Confident
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/17/americans-most-optimistic-since-2007-as-stocks-sur?ref=hp
One House's Market Outlook http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704551504578487054194986208.html?mod=BOL_hps_oe#articleTabs_article%3D0
Quitting QE Risks
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/17/quitting-qe-whats-at-risk?ref=hp
Nervous About The Market?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2013/05/16/investing-at-all-time-highs/2169983/
Claim Not Supported By Facts http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/05/16/Data-Debunks-IRSs-Explanation-of-Extra-Scrutiny.aspx#page1
EU Running Out Of Oil http://www.energytribune.com/76816/the-world-is-not-running-out-of-oil-but-europe-is#sthash.phQcebbt.dpbs
Central Banks Buying Equities
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/clif-droke/when-central-banks-buy-stocks
More Deception?
http://news.investors.com/051713-656551-obama-exaggerated-spending-deficit-budget-cuts.htm?ref=HPLNews
One House's Market Outlook http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704551504578487054194986208.html?mod=BOL_hps_oe#articleTabs_article%3D0
Quitting QE Risks
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/17/quitting-qe-whats-at-risk?ref=hp
Nervous About The Market?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2013/05/16/investing-at-all-time-highs/2169983/
Claim Not Supported By Facts http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/05/16/Data-Debunks-IRSs-Explanation-of-Extra-Scrutiny.aspx#page1
EU Running Out Of Oil http://www.energytribune.com/76816/the-world-is-not-running-out-of-oil-but-europe-is#sthash.phQcebbt.dpbs
Central Banks Buying Equities
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/clif-droke/when-central-banks-buy-stocks
More Deception?
http://news.investors.com/051713-656551-obama-exaggerated-spending-deficit-budget-cuts.htm?ref=HPLNews
Friday, May 17, 2013
JUST REMEMBER
In my younger and more vulnerable years my father gave me some advice that I've been turning over in my mind ever since.
"Whenever you feel like criticizing any one," he told me, "just remember that all the people in the world haven't had the advantages that you've had."
Nick Carraway
Now that still another remake of F. Scott Fitzgerald's classic novel, The Great Gatsby, has hit theaters, it's interesting to reexamine some of the themes Fitzgerald covered. The link below discusses a few things not to do, though we might take exception to a couple of their points.
An important word in the above quote is vulnerable. In part this is certainly a story about losing one's vulnerability. For those who haven't it might make the movie more enjoyable if you read the novel first.
Though diversification is important, no less an investor than Warren Buffett called it "diworsification." Most fortunes are made through focus, not by spreading oneself too thin. That's part of the risk. It comes with concentration. But so does, for the most part, big reward.
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/05/17/6-ways-to-ruin-your-life-gatsby-style/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-05-17&utm_medium=email
"Whenever you feel like criticizing any one," he told me, "just remember that all the people in the world haven't had the advantages that you've had."
Nick Carraway
Now that still another remake of F. Scott Fitzgerald's classic novel, The Great Gatsby, has hit theaters, it's interesting to reexamine some of the themes Fitzgerald covered. The link below discusses a few things not to do, though we might take exception to a couple of their points.
An important word in the above quote is vulnerable. In part this is certainly a story about losing one's vulnerability. For those who haven't it might make the movie more enjoyable if you read the novel first.
Though diversification is important, no less an investor than Warren Buffett called it "diworsification." Most fortunes are made through focus, not by spreading oneself too thin. That's part of the risk. It comes with concentration. But so does, for the most part, big reward.
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/05/17/6-ways-to-ruin-your-life-gatsby-style/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-05-17&utm_medium=email
PAIN EXPENSE ANGUISH
Two of America's best known and largest institutions celebrate their 100th anniversary this year, the Internal Revenue Service and the Federal Reserve Bank.
In their time both have done enough damage to make a Stage Five Hurricane seem like a kindergarten party washed ashore.The bureaucrat-bloated, byzantine IRS has become the modern day bully on the block.
With rules and regulations even they can't understand, the IRS has a long and sordid history of controversy, deceit and lawlessness. The recent uproar over politically-driven audits is just one example of American taxpayer abuse at the hands of a power-mad government agency running amuck. The links below shows several more for those interested.
It's too bad this story didn't hatch a bit later this year since National Bullying Awareness Week is set for November 17 - 23, 2013 with its Theme: "Stand Up! (to bullying)." Maybe then it would get the MSM attention it deserves.
Incompetence not bullying is the Federal Reserve Bank's forte. As one long-time observer once put it: "Many studies, formal and informal, have been made of the record of forecasting by economists, and it has been consistently abysmal."
The Federal Reserve given all their so-called resources has hardly proved adept at seeing let alone heading off economic trouble at the pass. In fact, truth be told, these people have created far more trouble then they've resolved. Most of it at the pain, expense and anguish of the American consumer.
In their time both have done enough damage to make a Stage Five Hurricane seem like a kindergarten party washed ashore.The bureaucrat-bloated, byzantine IRS has become the modern day bully on the block.
With rules and regulations even they can't understand, the IRS has a long and sordid history of controversy, deceit and lawlessness. The recent uproar over politically-driven audits is just one example of American taxpayer abuse at the hands of a power-mad government agency running amuck. The links below shows several more for those interested.
It's too bad this story didn't hatch a bit later this year since National Bullying Awareness Week is set for November 17 - 23, 2013 with its Theme: "Stand Up! (to bullying)." Maybe then it would get the MSM attention it deserves.
Incompetence not bullying is the Federal Reserve Bank's forte. As one long-time observer once put it: "Many studies, formal and informal, have been made of the record of forecasting by economists, and it has been consistently abysmal."
The Federal Reserve given all their so-called resources has hardly proved adept at seeing let alone heading off economic trouble at the pass. In fact, truth be told, these people have created far more trouble then they've resolved. Most of it at the pain, expense and anguish of the American consumer.
FRIDAY READS
Importance Of Homework
http://touch.valuewalk.com/valuewalk/#!/entry/avoid-overreacting-to-trending-news-by-knowing-your-stocks,519550efda27f5d9d0c6a76d/2
President's Wealth Revealed
http://www.moneynews.com/newswidget/Obama-Investor-Cautious-Strategy/2013/05/15/id/504724?promo_code=F492-1&utm_source=Test_Newsmax_Feed&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1
Shine Gone?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/gold-seen-falling-to-1-100-an-ounce-in-a-year-by-credit-suisse.html
One Giant Step Nowhere
http://news.investors.com/business/051613-656433-walmart-highlights-fragile-economic-recovery.htm?ref=HPLNews
Is There A Surprise In Store Here?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/talk-of-fed-wind-down-grows-louder-2013-05-16
Gas Prices Up
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2013/05/16/midwest-great-lakes-regions-driving-national-gas-prices-higher/2166845/
http://touch.valuewalk.com/valuewalk/#!/entry/avoid-overreacting-to-trending-news-by-knowing-your-stocks,519550efda27f5d9d0c6a76d/2
President's Wealth Revealed
http://www.moneynews.com/newswidget/Obama-Investor-Cautious-Strategy/2013/05/15/id/504724?promo_code=F492-1&utm_source=Test_Newsmax_Feed&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1
Shine Gone?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/gold-seen-falling-to-1-100-an-ounce-in-a-year-by-credit-suisse.html
One Giant Step Nowhere
http://news.investors.com/business/051613-656433-walmart-highlights-fragile-economic-recovery.htm?ref=HPLNews
Is There A Surprise In Store Here?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/talk-of-fed-wind-down-grows-louder-2013-05-16
Gas Prices Up
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2013/05/16/midwest-great-lakes-regions-driving-national-gas-prices-higher/2166845/
Thursday, May 16, 2013
10 THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW
1. Companies in the S&P 500 get 34% of their revenue outside US borders.
2. Indexes tend to be overweighted in whatever’s been hot.
3. Parkinson said it all in his famous "Law": "Expenditures rise to meet income."
4. Many studies, formal and informal, have been made of the record of forecasting by economists, and it has been consistently abysmal.
5. Inflation will be the path of least resistance politicians take in the end. It's part of their DNA.
7. Stronger dollar will hurt multinational companies.
8. Offshoring to lower costs is over.
9. Employee compensation is around 55% of GDP, the lowest it's been in 60 years.
10. Earnings as a percent of sales, around 9%, are near 20 year highs.
2. Indexes tend to be overweighted in whatever’s been hot.
3. Parkinson said it all in his famous "Law": "Expenditures rise to meet income."
4. Many studies, formal and informal, have been made of the record of forecasting by economists, and it has been consistently abysmal.
5. Inflation will be the path of least resistance politicians take in the end. It's part of their DNA.
6. A 1776 quote from Adam Smith about what's notoriously known today as "kicking the can."
"To relieve the present exigency is always the object which principally interests those immediately concerned in the administration of publick affairs. The future liberation of the publick revenue, they leave to the care of posterity.”
8. Offshoring to lower costs is over.
9. Employee compensation is around 55% of GDP, the lowest it's been in 60 years.
10. Earnings as a percent of sales, around 9%, are near 20 year highs.
THE FRENCH WAY
If you want an idea of where America is headed, read this article about where France is and has been.
Truth be told this is not just France; it's the entire European Union, a tax crazy, regulation-stagnant, bureaucratic-bloated, green-whipped pathetic mess.
Truth be told this is not just France; it's the entire European Union, a tax crazy, regulation-stagnant, bureaucratic-bloated, green-whipped pathetic mess.
THURSDAY READS
Pass The Mayo
http://blog.diynetwork.com/maderemade/2013/04/29/diy-mayonnaise-8-handy-uses-that-dont-involve-food/?affiliate=blocker&omnisource=SEM&c1=MadeRemade&c2=Outbrain&c3=RSS&c4=DIY-Mayonnaise-8-Handy-Uses-That-Don?t-I
Bubble Talk
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-05-14/this-bull-is-like-the-tech-bubble-but-different#r=hpt-ls
Watch Junk Not Bouncing Ball http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704551504578485360775930142.html?mod=BOL_hpp_highlight_bottom#articleTabs_article%3D0
Canadian House Bubble
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/#
Insanity Bureaucrat Style
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/14/anatomy-of-the-worlds-most-insane-health-care-bill.aspx
Outcome Versus Association
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/us-ovarian-cancer-idUSBRE94E0XB20130515
Name Your Fix
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/15/central-bank-methadone-is-still-bad-for-capital-markets-black-rock/
Trust Your Bank. Really?
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/15/technology/security/bank-heist/index.html
Bubble Talk
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-05-14/this-bull-is-like-the-tech-bubble-but-different#r=hpt-ls
Watch Junk Not Bouncing Ball http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704551504578485360775930142.html?mod=BOL_hpp_highlight_bottom#articleTabs_article%3D0
Canadian House Bubble
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/#
Insanity Bureaucrat Style
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/14/anatomy-of-the-worlds-most-insane-health-care-bill.aspx
Outcome Versus Association
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/us-ovarian-cancer-idUSBRE94E0XB20130515
Name Your Fix
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/15/central-bank-methadone-is-still-bad-for-capital-markets-black-rock/
Trust Your Bank. Really?
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/15/technology/security/bank-heist/index.html
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
FAVORITISM
During the Bush years much was made of his friends in the oil business.
The implication was always the same, favoritism. And for every hydrocarbon accident one could expect to hear the shrill voice of environmentalists.
Obama is surely a friend to green energy, in particular wind and solar. Solyndra should come to mind. But as the linked story below shows one man's favoritism doesn't necessarily equate to another's, president or not.
http://www.energytribune.com/76807/obama-administration-gives-pass-to-wind-energy-companies-on-eagle-deaths#sthash.BW34ISrW.dpbs
The implication was always the same, favoritism. And for every hydrocarbon accident one could expect to hear the shrill voice of environmentalists.
Obama is surely a friend to green energy, in particular wind and solar. Solyndra should come to mind. But as the linked story below shows one man's favoritism doesn't necessarily equate to another's, president or not.
http://www.energytribune.com/76807/obama-administration-gives-pass-to-wind-energy-companies-on-eagle-deaths#sthash.BW34ISrW.dpbs
CONSIDER
Conspiracy is a term that gets tossed around freely today. It's a term you need to be mindful of especially in its now common context.
Most often it's used to neutralize or marginalize. That is, anyone who the questions the establishment can get labelled with it. It's a variation of the popular political technique damage control.
For openers check out the controversies now threatening to engulf President Obama and this administration. Collusion is suppose to a legal no-no. And that brings us to inflation and the bond market.
We'll suffer the risk of ire from the name-callers to bring you another viewpoint. We don't claim to be correct. But we do claim to consider. And if you want to be successful in this economic jungle, that's what you need to do.
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/can-gold-rise-during-deflation
WEDNESDAY READS
A Pimco View
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704551504578482793093148444.html?mod=BOL_hps_oe#articleTabs_article%3D0
Sync Or No Sync
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100736820
Follow The Indifference
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2013/05/14/markets-and-memory-banks/
Offshore No More? http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/5/14/the-hollowing-out-of-chinese-manufacturing.html
US Stocks And Aussie Dollar http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/14/is-tumbling-australian-dollar-canary-in-coal-mine-for-u-s-stocks/
Stronger Dollar Good Or Bad?
http://investorplace.com/2013/05/stronger-dollar-spells-bad-news-for-stocks-oil-gold/
Breakout Or Flop?
http://news.investors.com/investing-international-leaders/051413-656014-michael-kors-forming-stock-base.htm?ref=HPLNews
US Oil And Future Demand
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/14/news/world/oil-iea-demand/index.html
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704551504578482793093148444.html?mod=BOL_hps_oe#articleTabs_article%3D0
Sync Or No Sync
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100736820
Follow The Indifference
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2013/05/14/markets-and-memory-banks/
Offshore No More? http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/5/14/the-hollowing-out-of-chinese-manufacturing.html
US Stocks And Aussie Dollar http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/14/is-tumbling-australian-dollar-canary-in-coal-mine-for-u-s-stocks/
Stronger Dollar Good Or Bad?
http://investorplace.com/2013/05/stronger-dollar-spells-bad-news-for-stocks-oil-gold/
Breakout Or Flop?
http://news.investors.com/investing-international-leaders/051413-656014-michael-kors-forming-stock-base.htm?ref=HPLNews
US Oil And Future Demand
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/14/news/world/oil-iea-demand/index.html
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
BRIEFS
It's not the air. And it's not about slow growth or deflation despite what MSM may tell you. And it's not about inflation. There's plenty of that around. It's just not the kind these people want.
It's about currency debasing. The latest to join the crowd since Japan kicked off the party in April is Israel whose economy is "heavily dependent on exports, and a strong shekel weakens the competitiveness Israeli products abroad."
In the last few weeks several countries have lowed their interest rates. Competitive advantage is what economists call it. And that's the current worry-wart facing most of these countries.
The fear is the age-old one: Don't let the other guy get one up on you.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324216004578481283977918230.html?KEYWORDS=banks+rush
-------
rle
Don't worry is a popular saying. Not too long ago it was a catch line of a popular song. Now Moody's the bond rating agency recently advised us all to stop the economic hand ringing: there's no bond bubble.
So we can all breathe a sigh of relief, here's a quote from the same agency that gave all those subprime mortgage beauties a triple A rating before the curtain got pulled.
"Recent concerns about a 'bubble' in corporate bond markets look overstated… Overall, drivers of demand and supply offer no strong evidence that recent issuance levels presage a damaging correction......"
-----
It's about currency debasing. The latest to join the crowd since Japan kicked off the party in April is Israel whose economy is "heavily dependent on exports, and a strong shekel weakens the competitiveness Israeli products abroad."
In the last few weeks several countries have lowed their interest rates. Competitive advantage is what economists call it. And that's the current worry-wart facing most of these countries.
The fear is the age-old one: Don't let the other guy get one up on you.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324216004578481283977918230.html?KEYWORDS=banks+rush
-------
rle
Don't worry is a popular saying. Not too long ago it was a catch line of a popular song. Now Moody's the bond rating agency recently advised us all to stop the economic hand ringing: there's no bond bubble.
So we can all breathe a sigh of relief, here's a quote from the same agency that gave all those subprime mortgage beauties a triple A rating before the curtain got pulled.
"Recent concerns about a 'bubble' in corporate bond markets look overstated… Overall, drivers of demand and supply offer no strong evidence that recent issuance levels presage a damaging correction......"
-----
TUESDAY READS
Second Leg Up?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/05/13/is-stock-market-breakout-sign-of-new-upleg/2142561/
Import Prices Down
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/14/us-usa-economy-prices-idUSBRE94D0GU20130514
Rate Cut
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324216004578481283977918230.html?mod=ITP_pageone_
Some Of EU Shine Gone http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324031404578481272902309736.html?mod=ITP_pageone_2
Spying The New Fashion Way
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Bloomberg-data-privacy-internet-privacy-consumer/5/14/2013/id/49800
The Japanese Situation
lhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2013/05/the-real-experiment-that-is-being-carried-out-in-japan.html
More Spying
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap-says-doj-secretly-obtained-phone-records-2013-05-13?dist=beforebell
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/05/13/is-stock-market-breakout-sign-of-new-upleg/2142561/
Import Prices Down
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/14/us-usa-economy-prices-idUSBRE94D0GU20130514
Rate Cut
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324216004578481283977918230.html?mod=ITP_pageone_
Some Of EU Shine Gone http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324031404578481272902309736.html?mod=ITP_pageone_2
Spying The New Fashion Way
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Bloomberg-data-privacy-internet-privacy-consumer/5/14/2013/id/49800
The Japanese Situation
lhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2013/05/the-real-experiment-that-is-being-carried-out-in-japan.html
More Spying
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap-says-doj-secretly-obtained-phone-records-2013-05-13?dist=beforebell
Monday, May 13, 2013
ENERGY
We've mentioned energy before.
We think there's value there, despite the hydrocarbon haters. Energy demands will only grow. In the short run it's doubtful alternative energy will make much of an impact.
Opposing forces will see to that. Like the Washington bureaucrats, agreement is hardly a given. And leaving it up to those same bureaucrats will devolve into one of mankind's greatest errors.
So own some energy and that includes water.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/13/blackrock-avoid-utilities-buy-tech-and-energy/
We think there's value there, despite the hydrocarbon haters. Energy demands will only grow. In the short run it's doubtful alternative energy will make much of an impact.
Opposing forces will see to that. Like the Washington bureaucrats, agreement is hardly a given. And leaving it up to those same bureaucrats will devolve into one of mankind's greatest errors.
So own some energy and that includes water.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/13/blackrock-avoid-utilities-buy-tech-and-energy/
A RELATED PIECE
Chinese solar panel imports are everywhere.
Yet the world's largest solar panel producer by volume resides in Merkel Land, Germany. Slapping tariffs on imports is a form of currency debasing dressed up in patriotic garb.
And it can be dangerous. But the next to last paragraph in this story is the most important to us because it relates to our Dirty Word piece.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324059704578475300172707498.html?KEYWORDS=The+cloudy+logic
-----
rle
Yet the world's largest solar panel producer by volume resides in Merkel Land, Germany. Slapping tariffs on imports is a form of currency debasing dressed up in patriotic garb.
And it can be dangerous. But the next to last paragraph in this story is the most important to us because it relates to our Dirty Word piece.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324059704578475300172707498.html?KEYWORDS=The+cloudy+logic
-----
rle
A DIRTY WORD
It's a four letter word and it's dirty.
Unlike some other four letter words you won't hear it used much these days. And when you do hear it most likely the context centers on its demise. Right about now, however, it's probably a good time to consider a: "Not do fast!"
And here are some links about why.
1. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/germany-faces-tough-decisions-as-it-dismantles-nuclear-plants-a-899063-2.html
2.http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-renewable-energy-policy-takes-toll-on-nature-conservation-a-888094.html
3. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Global-Markets-Hot-for-U.S.-Coal.html
4. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Coal-Is-the-Fuel-of-the-Past-and-the-Future.html
----
rle
Unlike some other four letter words you won't hear it used much these days. And when you do hear it most likely the context centers on its demise. Right about now, however, it's probably a good time to consider a: "Not do fast!"
And here are some links about why.
1. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/germany-faces-tough-decisions-as-it-dismantles-nuclear-plants-a-899063-2.html
2.http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-renewable-energy-policy-takes-toll-on-nature-conservation-a-888094.html
3. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Global-Markets-Hot-for-U.S.-Coal.html
4. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Coal-Is-the-Fuel-of-the-Past-and-the-Future.html
----
rle
MONDAY READS
Make You Want To Trust MSM?
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Network-News-Ties-Obama/2013/05/12/id/504036
Make You Want To Trust Government More?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324715704578478851998004528.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
The Wall Street Octopus
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/05/12/denver-public-schools-pay-216-million-to-wall-street-banks-to-unwind-swaps/#more-5652
Japanese Stocks Up
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/13/us-markets-japan-stocks-idUSBRE94C02020130513
Aussie Dollar
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100683015
Bears Versus Bulls
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-12/gold-bears-pull-20-8-billion-as-blackrock-says-buy-commodities.html
Change From Libor
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/12/libor-replacement-idUSL3N0DT09J20130512
New Study About Testicular Cancer in Young
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/05/130512141208.htm
Confidence Booster
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324744104578471512931848632.html?KEYWORDS=foreclosure+erro
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Network-News-Ties-Obama/2013/05/12/id/504036
Make You Want To Trust Government More?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324715704578478851998004528.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
The Wall Street Octopus
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/05/12/denver-public-schools-pay-216-million-to-wall-street-banks-to-unwind-swaps/#more-5652
Japanese Stocks Up
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/13/us-markets-japan-stocks-idUSBRE94C02020130513
Aussie Dollar
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100683015
Bears Versus Bulls
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-12/gold-bears-pull-20-8-billion-as-blackrock-says-buy-commodities.html
Change From Libor
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/12/libor-replacement-idUSL3N0DT09J20130512
New Study About Testicular Cancer in Young
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/05/130512141208.htm
Confidence Booster
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324744104578471512931848632.html?KEYWORDS=foreclosure+erro
Sunday, May 12, 2013
BRIEFS
Usually we post a few short items here, but this time we think you'll find the following linked-article worth the time.
We've argued for years the MSM leaves much to be desired. In LA at this moment there is an apparent struggle between unions and other populist forces and two free-market-oriented, conservative billionaire brothers over who should get ownership of the powerful newspaper, the LA Times.
Does it matter? Somebody thinks so. Though this post isn't about that struggle, indirectly it is. Too big to fail isn't just limited to big banks.
The tracks of too big are everywhere: too big to be owned by people with opposing opinions; too big to accurately report the real news; too big to tell the little guy the actual truth.
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/5/10/every-president-his-bubble-and-its-aftermath.html
We've argued for years the MSM leaves much to be desired. In LA at this moment there is an apparent struggle between unions and other populist forces and two free-market-oriented, conservative billionaire brothers over who should get ownership of the powerful newspaper, the LA Times.
Does it matter? Somebody thinks so. Though this post isn't about that struggle, indirectly it is. Too big to fail isn't just limited to big banks.
The tracks of too big are everywhere: too big to be owned by people with opposing opinions; too big to accurately report the real news; too big to tell the little guy the actual truth.
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/5/10/every-president-his-bubble-and-its-aftermath.html
WHAT'S YOUR VIEW?
To say that stocks have been on a tear so far is to put it mildly.
Up 15% for the year so far, should the trend continue on annualized basis the market would end 2013 whoppingly higher. Now this isn't intended to be one of those it-is-it-isn't-going-to-happen articles. Not at all. It's more reflection time.
You've got heavy-hitting hedge fund managers touting everything from further weakness in the Aussie dollar to recommending housing stocks that have already rallied based on further improving fundamentals to suggesting though stocks are not cheap they have a ways to go in this dramtic upswing.
In other words, there is no shortage of opinions here. Last week there were two prominent meetings, one in New York, the other in what-happens-here-stays-here LasVegas.
One writer even referred to the Las Vegas gathering as Davos in the desert. Given our view of the annual Davos confab, we're not sure whether that's a compliment or an insult.
What is certain is this information won't stay there. So here's another view from another heavy-hitter.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/10/sam-zell-says-sell/
Up 15% for the year so far, should the trend continue on annualized basis the market would end 2013 whoppingly higher. Now this isn't intended to be one of those it-is-it-isn't-going-to-happen articles. Not at all. It's more reflection time.
You've got heavy-hitting hedge fund managers touting everything from further weakness in the Aussie dollar to recommending housing stocks that have already rallied based on further improving fundamentals to suggesting though stocks are not cheap they have a ways to go in this dramtic upswing.
In other words, there is no shortage of opinions here. Last week there were two prominent meetings, one in New York, the other in what-happens-here-stays-here LasVegas.
One writer even referred to the Las Vegas gathering as Davos in the desert. Given our view of the annual Davos confab, we're not sure whether that's a compliment or an insult.
What is certain is this information won't stay there. So here's another view from another heavy-hitter.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/10/sam-zell-says-sell/
Saturday, May 11, 2013
WEEKEND READ
WANT MORE $: SHORTEN NAME
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/05/10/study-people-with-shorter-names-earn-more/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-05-11&utm_medium=email
MARITAL MONEY BLISS
http://news.investors.com/investing-personal-finance/051013-655670-how-to-avoid-marital-money-stress.htm?ref=HPLNews
MONEY BLISS
http://news.investors.com/investing-personal-finance/051013-655670-how-to-avoid-marital-money-stress.htm?ref=HPLNews
US AND UK HOUSING: A LOOK http://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2013/05/10/a-look-at-housing-affordability-in-the-us-and-uk/
WHAT SAY YOU?
http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/jpmorgan-chase-co-jpm-be-careful-what-you-wish-for-139836/
STRONG DOLLAR
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/05/currency-positioning-and-technical_11.htm
WHERE WERE THEY?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-10/did-they-ever-tell-you-buy-gold-or-sell-stocks
FED MAP
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324744104578475273101471896.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/05/10/study-people-with-shorter-names-earn-more/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-05-11&utm_medium=email
MARITAL MONEY BLISS
http://news.investors.com/investing-personal-finance/051013-655670-how-to-avoid-marital-money-stress.htm?ref=HPLNews
MONEY BLISS
http://news.investors.com/investing-personal-finance/051013-655670-how-to-avoid-marital-money-stress.htm?ref=HPLNews
US AND UK HOUSING: A LOOK http://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2013/05/10/a-look-at-housing-affordability-in-the-us-and-uk/
WHAT SAY YOU?
http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/jpmorgan-chase-co-jpm-be-careful-what-you-wish-for-139836/
STRONG DOLLAR
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/05/currency-positioning-and-technical_11.htm
WHERE WERE THEY?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-10/did-they-ever-tell-you-buy-gold-or-sell-stocks
FED MAP
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324744104578475273101471896.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
A BANK WORTH A LOOK
We've written about HBAN, Huntington Bank, before. It's a midwest regional bank, like many other banks, has had its troubles.
The stock changes hands around $7.50. An insider recently bought 100,000 shares at a cost of just over $700,000. One insider buying is not significant. In this case, however, it's at least a sign.
Most of its branches are in middle America, an area hard hit by the manufacturing decline. And that's part of the story we like, the dull, prosaic Midwest where oil and gas discoveries are helping to fuel the economy. You can do your own research on the region and decide accordingly.
One well-known market strategist when asked recently for her favorite emerging market replied, the Midwest. Full disclosure: We own the stock and continue to accumulate it. Without putting a number on it, if economic recovery becomes what many MSM cheerleaders hope, the shares have good upside potential.
It pays a small dividend, trades at about 10x earnings and short interest, now about 10 million shares, is down 11% since mid-April, some of it no doubt due to the market rally
--------
rle
The stock changes hands around $7.50. An insider recently bought 100,000 shares at a cost of just over $700,000. One insider buying is not significant. In this case, however, it's at least a sign.
Most of its branches are in middle America, an area hard hit by the manufacturing decline. And that's part of the story we like, the dull, prosaic Midwest where oil and gas discoveries are helping to fuel the economy. You can do your own research on the region and decide accordingly.
One well-known market strategist when asked recently for her favorite emerging market replied, the Midwest. Full disclosure: We own the stock and continue to accumulate it. Without putting a number on it, if economic recovery becomes what many MSM cheerleaders hope, the shares have good upside potential.
It pays a small dividend, trades at about 10x earnings and short interest, now about 10 million shares, is down 11% since mid-April, some of it no doubt due to the market rally
--------
rle
BRIEFS
There's been much talk so far this year about bonds, starting with all the babble abuot a so-called "great rotation."
Now Pimco's Bill Gross, the noted bond guru, some are saying made it offical recently when he pronounced bonds DOA.
Gross specifically mentioned the 30-year bond bull market that started in the early 1980s, actually the same time the stock market took off.
But as we wrote about recently the real tipping point came in junk bonds now offering below 5% yields on average for the first time in the history of these securities.
There are two thing to consider here, risk premium and yield. Yields may be at historic lows for junk, but risk premiums are not. And that tells an important tale.
What all the central bank easing going on around the globe should tell you is the old for-every-action-there-is-a-reaction. Similar to what the administration is trying to do with its chain CPI index--screw the COLA folks--cutting interest rates to revive economies is putting the screws to all and any looking for yield.
And that goes way beyond just the COLA crowd.
But its a two-way fare. One fine day these yields will prove less attractive than a three-day old hotdog sitting in the fridge.
-----
Now Pimco's Bill Gross, the noted bond guru, some are saying made it offical recently when he pronounced bonds DOA.
Gross specifically mentioned the 30-year bond bull market that started in the early 1980s, actually the same time the stock market took off.
But as we wrote about recently the real tipping point came in junk bonds now offering below 5% yields on average for the first time in the history of these securities.
There are two thing to consider here, risk premium and yield. Yields may be at historic lows for junk, but risk premiums are not. And that tells an important tale.
What all the central bank easing going on around the globe should tell you is the old for-every-action-there-is-a-reaction. Similar to what the administration is trying to do with its chain CPI index--screw the COLA folks--cutting interest rates to revive economies is putting the screws to all and any looking for yield.
And that goes way beyond just the COLA crowd.
But its a two-way fare. One fine day these yields will prove less attractive than a three-day old hotdog sitting in the fridge.
-----
Friday, May 10, 2013
FRIDAY READS
Fewer Own Stocks
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/09/investing/american-stock-ownership/index.html
You Read You Decide
http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/05/are-stocks-cheap-a-review-of-the-evidence.html
UK Rates Unchanged
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/09/british-pound-consolidates-after-rate-decision?ref=hp
Couple Of Interesting Charts
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=8365
Dollar Strength Or Yen Weakness?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-holds-high-ground-after-topping-100-2013-05-09?dist=lbeforebell
More On The Yen-Dollar
http://www.marctomarket.com/
Another Point Of View
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-perspective/050913-655537-free-market-texas-outperforms-big-government-obama.htm#comments
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/09/investing/american-stock-ownership/index.html
You Read You Decide
http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/05/are-stocks-cheap-a-review-of-the-evidence.html
UK Rates Unchanged
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/05/09/british-pound-consolidates-after-rate-decision?ref=hp
Couple Of Interesting Charts
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=8365
Dollar Strength Or Yen Weakness?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-holds-high-ground-after-topping-100-2013-05-09?dist=lbeforebell
More On The Yen-Dollar
http://www.marctomarket.com/
Another Point Of View
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-perspective/050913-655537-free-market-texas-outperforms-big-government-obama.htm#comments
Thursday, May 9, 2013
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
When is stubborn stubborn?
How about when your a commodity-based or emerging market currency shows some glimmer of strength. Central banks in Asia and New Zealand are trying to cool off their currencies as capital continues to flow to those areas.
Despite concerns about a global slowdown, Asia in the minds of many investors is where whatever growth exists is. Horace Mann may have said to go west, but it's by all indications now east, China, Thailand, Australia and the Philippines.
The Thai baht is approaching levels not seen since 1997 when it moved around 25 baht to the U.S. dollar. Though it's early this is another form of what some might call reverse currency debasing.
As these currencies strengthen those of some of their trading partners weaken. That could end up making products from these strong currency nations less marketable putting a damper on exports.
When a similar situation among the so-called Asian Tigers developed in the 1990s, central banks tried to stem the tide by intervening in the markets. And we all know how that came out. Fooling around with currencies is like fooling around with Mother Nature. You might get away with it for a while.
According to reports Asian emerging markets have attracted nearly $7 billion to bond funds so far this year. Last time that happened was 2010. This is at least in part a higher return thing. Yield hungry investors searching for more income.
The message is also clear. Money looking for higher returns will travel. It reads like a good telegram: Have money. Need higher returns. Will travel.
What happens after it gets there determines whether the trip was worth it.
How about when your a commodity-based or emerging market currency shows some glimmer of strength. Central banks in Asia and New Zealand are trying to cool off their currencies as capital continues to flow to those areas.
Despite concerns about a global slowdown, Asia in the minds of many investors is where whatever growth exists is. Horace Mann may have said to go west, but it's by all indications now east, China, Thailand, Australia and the Philippines.
The Thai baht is approaching levels not seen since 1997 when it moved around 25 baht to the U.S. dollar. Though it's early this is another form of what some might call reverse currency debasing.
As these currencies strengthen those of some of their trading partners weaken. That could end up making products from these strong currency nations less marketable putting a damper on exports.
When a similar situation among the so-called Asian Tigers developed in the 1990s, central banks tried to stem the tide by intervening in the markets. And we all know how that came out. Fooling around with currencies is like fooling around with Mother Nature. You might get away with it for a while.
According to reports Asian emerging markets have attracted nearly $7 billion to bond funds so far this year. Last time that happened was 2010. This is at least in part a higher return thing. Yield hungry investors searching for more income.
The message is also clear. Money looking for higher returns will travel. It reads like a good telegram: Have money. Need higher returns. Will travel.
What happens after it gets there determines whether the trip was worth it.
BRIEFS
Canadian housing prices jumped over 90% in the last 10 years.
At the same time the country rode a natural resources boom that with all the deflationary concerns around the world that's beginning to go snap, crackle and possibly slump. The Loonie, Canada's dollar, so far this year dropped 1.2% against its American counterpart, according to the WSJ.
Home sales have slowed with home prices yet to follow, but many investors believe they will. Canadian household debt figures are estimated at 165% of of disposable income, not far from what U.S. consumers were carrying before the subprime balloon burst. That's a trend that tracks the country's rise in housing prices.
Demand for homes pushes up not only home prices but demand for things that go in them. Consumption and debt result.
Lower oil prices knocked nearly 0.5% off economic growth during the last half of last year in an economy that managed to grow only 1.8% in 2012. And don 't forget what's happen so fart this year to the yellow stuff--gold.
With commodities tanking, many expect Canada will do the same.
----
We've written about PIK bonds before. Payment in kind paper that was popular back in the early 1980s when interest rates were 14-15% and higher. Now with interest rates 30 years or so later at the other end of the spectrum, PIKs are making an apparent comeback.
So what does that tell you, if anything?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324744104578470812182691622.html
----
At the same time the country rode a natural resources boom that with all the deflationary concerns around the world that's beginning to go snap, crackle and possibly slump. The Loonie, Canada's dollar, so far this year dropped 1.2% against its American counterpart, according to the WSJ.
Home sales have slowed with home prices yet to follow, but many investors believe they will. Canadian household debt figures are estimated at 165% of of disposable income, not far from what U.S. consumers were carrying before the subprime balloon burst. That's a trend that tracks the country's rise in housing prices.
Demand for homes pushes up not only home prices but demand for things that go in them. Consumption and debt result.
Lower oil prices knocked nearly 0.5% off economic growth during the last half of last year in an economy that managed to grow only 1.8% in 2012. And don 't forget what's happen so fart this year to the yellow stuff--gold.
With commodities tanking, many expect Canada will do the same.
----
We've written about PIK bonds before. Payment in kind paper that was popular back in the early 1980s when interest rates were 14-15% and higher. Now with interest rates 30 years or so later at the other end of the spectrum, PIKs are making an apparent comeback.
So what does that tell you, if anything?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324744104578470812182691622.html
----
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
THURSDAY READS
Be Careful What You Wish
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-07/art-cashin-warns-bernanke-fans-be-careful-what-you-wish-deficit
The UK Sterling And BOE http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/05/the-boe-and-sterling.html
All Empires Crash http://t.ritholtz.com/bigpicture/#!/entry/all-empires-crash-soon-after-they-reach-their-peak,518b3493da27f5d9d0bfc005
Big Banks Push Back http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324244304578471312603346762.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
What's The Real Cost?
http://www.businessinsider.com/heritage-immigration-cost-63-trillion-2013-5?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29
Berkshire's Munger Speaks
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2013/05/08/n-charlie-munger-europe-japan-economy.cnnmoney/index.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-07/art-cashin-warns-bernanke-fans-be-careful-what-you-wish-deficit
The UK Sterling And BOE http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/05/the-boe-and-sterling.html
All Empires Crash http://t.ritholtz.com/bigpicture/#!/entry/all-empires-crash-soon-after-they-reach-their-peak,518b3493da27f5d9d0bfc005
Big Banks Push Back http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324244304578471312603346762.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
What's The Real Cost?
http://www.businessinsider.com/heritage-immigration-cost-63-trillion-2013-5?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29
Berkshire's Munger Speaks
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2013/05/08/n-charlie-munger-europe-japan-economy.cnnmoney/index.html
Saturday, May 4, 2013
SUNDAY READS
Confidence Lags
http://wealthmanagement.com/research-amp-tools/advisor-confidence-plunges?NL=WM-10&Issue=WM-10_20130503_WM-10_575&YM_RID=rleasset01@hotmail.com&YM_MID=1391235&sfvc4enews=42
Cost-cutting Coffee Choices
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/05/03/the-best-cheap-coffee/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-05-03&utm_medium=email
Apple Anyone?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/01/apple-stock-it-gets-worse.aspx
Predicting: How Accurate Is It?
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/26/nate-silver-what-big-data-cant-predict/?iid=SF_F_River
Can You Afford It?
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/05/03/study-growing-number-of-people-cant-afford-to-buy-or-rent-their-homes/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-05-04&utm_medium=email
http://wealthmanagement.com/research-amp-tools/advisor-confidence-plunges?NL=WM-10&Issue=WM-10_20130503_WM-10_575&YM_RID=rleasset01@hotmail.com&YM_MID=1391235&sfvc4enews=42
Cost-cutting Coffee Choices
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/05/03/the-best-cheap-coffee/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-05-03&utm_medium=email
Apple Anyone?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/01/apple-stock-it-gets-worse.aspx
Predicting: How Accurate Is It?
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/26/nate-silver-what-big-data-cant-predict/?iid=SF_F_River
Can You Afford It?
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/05/03/study-growing-number-of-people-cant-afford-to-buy-or-rent-their-homes/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=email-2013-05-04&utm_medium=email
THE SNIFFING AROUND RULE
Seven out of 30 is a pretty disturbing number.
That's an eye-catching low of 23%, hardly a respectable number for any industry. But in 2012 only seven of the 30 largest shipping firms made money.
Since 2007 excess capacity has been the industry's worse nightmare. The global downturn added to the problem. It's one of the oldest economic dilemmas, too much capacity and too little demand.
Europe and Asia, key shipping routes, slowed and high fuel costs didn't help. And it's tough to raise rates in such an environment. Over capacity and decreased demand, according to industry sources, caused freight rates to take a hit, falling by nearly 7%.
According to a WSJ article, the cost of a 20 foot container going from China to Europe that cost $1200 at the first of this year now runs about $800.
The high fuel costs led to building more fuel efficient freighters, adding to an already over supply of vessels some estimate that is at least 10% above current needs. There is also fears about another price war like the one in 2011 breaking out.
In our Thursday Reads we posted a link: Shipping Next. It's worth a look. The whole industry passes the sniffing around rule.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100697092
That's an eye-catching low of 23%, hardly a respectable number for any industry. But in 2012 only seven of the 30 largest shipping firms made money.
Since 2007 excess capacity has been the industry's worse nightmare. The global downturn added to the problem. It's one of the oldest economic dilemmas, too much capacity and too little demand.
Europe and Asia, key shipping routes, slowed and high fuel costs didn't help. And it's tough to raise rates in such an environment. Over capacity and decreased demand, according to industry sources, caused freight rates to take a hit, falling by nearly 7%.
According to a WSJ article, the cost of a 20 foot container going from China to Europe that cost $1200 at the first of this year now runs about $800.
The high fuel costs led to building more fuel efficient freighters, adding to an already over supply of vessels some estimate that is at least 10% above current needs. There is also fears about another price war like the one in 2011 breaking out.
In our Thursday Reads we posted a link: Shipping Next. It's worth a look. The whole industry passes the sniffing around rule.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100697092
Friday, May 3, 2013
WEEKEND READ
Forget Saints. It's preferreds that are marching in now.
Bank preferreds.
With interest rates lower than low, a niche' is being fulfilled, according to the WSJ.
Financial firms so far this year have unloaded nearly $14 billion of these preferred shares in the U.S. It's the fastest such an amount has sold this early since 2008.
In the hierarchy of stocks preferreds usually stand in front of common shares should something go shake, rattle and broke. Preferreds are like bonds, however, and when interest rates rise share values sink. Just the reverse is also true.
Right now the ducks are quacking--in this case, they're two sets of ducks, the yield starved public and big banks that seek to repair or bolster their balance sheets.
Now the Journal article says this allows banks to help themselves without hurting shareholders. But you might want to add a "Not so fast!" to that.
The yield might look appetizing now in this low-interest rate scene, but when rates start back up--and they will--these gems could belly flop. The surprise might be higher rates than anyone foresees. It wouldn't be the first time.
So if you're thinking about them read the fine print carefully. Are they callable, putable, accumulative are just a few of the things you want to know.
It remains to be told if they turn out to be Saints.
Bank preferreds.
With interest rates lower than low, a niche' is being fulfilled, according to the WSJ.
Financial firms so far this year have unloaded nearly $14 billion of these preferred shares in the U.S. It's the fastest such an amount has sold this early since 2008.
In the hierarchy of stocks preferreds usually stand in front of common shares should something go shake, rattle and broke. Preferreds are like bonds, however, and when interest rates rise share values sink. Just the reverse is also true.
Right now the ducks are quacking--in this case, they're two sets of ducks, the yield starved public and big banks that seek to repair or bolster their balance sheets.
Now the Journal article says this allows banks to help themselves without hurting shareholders. But you might want to add a "Not so fast!" to that.
The yield might look appetizing now in this low-interest rate scene, but when rates start back up--and they will--these gems could belly flop. The surprise might be higher rates than anyone foresees. It wouldn't be the first time.
So if you're thinking about them read the fine print carefully. Are they callable, putable, accumulative are just a few of the things you want to know.
It remains to be told if they turn out to be Saints.
WE'RE ALL GONNA SEE
There is, as one might expect, no shortage of quotes about today's announced job numbers.
We thought it might be fun and perhaps instructive to list a few. These are from Market Watch.
• “Jobs [numbers] more good news on top of consumer confidence, lower deficit, $35B debt paydown, housing recovery. Only cloud on horizon: sequester.” — Rep. Gerry Connolly, Democrat of Virginia. @GerryConnolly.
We thought it might be fun and perhaps instructive to list a few. These are from Market Watch.
• “Jobs [numbers] more good news on top of consumer confidence, lower deficit, $35B debt paydown, housing recovery. Only cloud on horizon: sequester.” — Rep. Gerry Connolly, Democrat of Virginia. @GerryConnolly.
• “Now is not the time for Washington to impose self-inflicted wounds on the economy. The Administration continues to urge Congress to replace the sequester with balanced deficit reduction, while working to put in place measures to create middle-class jobs, such as by rebuilding our roads and bridges and promoting American manufacturing.” — Alan Krueger, chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.
• “Today’s jobs report showed some signs of hope for the thousands of people who found a job in April. However, this growth is way behind our nation’s potential. We must focus on job creation more than one day a month.” — House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Republican of Virginia.
• “Like: Biggest rise in temp hiring in 13 months. Don’t like: Zero [manufacturing] job gains, and first decline in construction since last May.” — Ian Shepherdson, chief economist, Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors Inc. @IanShepherdson.
• “The latest jobs report shows that we are a long way from a true resurgence in American manufacturing. We strongly believe that we won’t see real growth in manufacturing jobs without the right policies from Washington, DC.” — Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing.
• “The Fed will view this with some relief. The better job numbers will diminish some of the near term risks to growth and in principle diminish some of the angst accumulating with the roll over in the inflation data.” — Eric Green, Global Head Rates, FX & Commodity Research, TD Securities.
• “This month’s abysmal jobs number – 165,000 new jobs in April, barely enough to cover new people coming into workforce – is a self-inflicted wound. Government austerity – tax hikes and spending cuts – is suffocating the economy, just when it needs air. And the perversity will get worse. The sequester cuts are only now beginning to hit.” — Robert Borosage, co-director of the Campaign for America’s Future.
There's a line in an old Don Williams song: "I guess we're all gonna be what we're gonna be." It's probably just as likely we're all gonna see what we want to see.
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