Monday, October 24, 2016

Other Views On Gold

http://www.marketslant.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_content/public/field/image/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-21%20at%203.43.16%20PM.png?itok=ZGyfHl84

 Gold traded at $1264 down $3.70 earlier today.

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Gold prices are expected to push past $1,400 an ounce in 2017, according to one billion-dollar hedge fund.
Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, sees gold above $1,400 in 2017In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group – which has assets under management of more than £1.6 billion -- said that he could see gold prices rallying 15% in 2017 as he expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low next year.

“The Fed is going to increase the rates by a little bit but not excessively and there is no guarantee that a rise in interest rates will put people off. A lot will depend on the real rates,” said Mobius, in the interview, on the sidelines at an event in Mumbai, India.
December gold futures last traded $1,262.60 an ounce, down 0.40% on the day. However, if Mobuis’ forecast proves right then gold at current levels could push to $1,451 an ounce next year.
The biggest hurdle to higher gold prices continues to be the U.S. dollar, which continued to trade at its highest level since March.
“The U.S. dollar is not that strong and may even decline,” said Mobius. “So if that happens, gold gets more expensive.”
The U.S. dollar has been firming, weighing down on gold prices as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates in December. Currently, markets are pricing in a 74% chance that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points by the end of the year.

.kitco.com/news/2016-10-24/Hedge-Fund-Manager-Sees-1-400-Gold-By-2017.
 
Before the next clear winner of the presidential election is decided on November 8, investors are still waiting how the markets will react to the news. It is hard to understand where the markets will be positioned in the next few weeks, so many investors find it hard to hedge their positions.
However, in the early stages of Q3 earnings, over 80 S&P companies are reporting total earnings up 3.9% from Q3 of last year. Of those 79% are surpassing EPS estimates while 62% are reporting better-than-expected revenues. Not bad.
Alan Valdes, Floor operations director at Silverbear, says that it is time to take another look at gold.  During all this uncertainty, gold has been building a base around $1,250. He believes  in investing in the physical gold…
“The yellow metal remains up 16% for the year, and the 8% pullback from the high of $1,363 is very common in a long-term bull market. During the 10-year bull run from 2001 to 2011, gold rose 645%, and yet there were 19 corrections of 6% or more during that time.”
Dave Williams of www.strategicgold.com says that gold will hover in that price range until after the November election and the December Fed meeting. He says, “Looking past the short-term considerations, gold remains in a bull market bolstered by sound fundamentals.”
In terms of where to invest in gold….CEO and founder of focusedstocktrader.com, Harris Shapiro, saw gains this year in the gold mining sector. He recommended the Gold Miners 3X ETF (NUGT) at $10.00 (split adjusted) where he took profits in August and believes now is the time to re-enter the sector.
Maybe it is a good time to start adding gold to your portfolio, either through ETFs or physical gold bullion. Since central banks have been adding to their gold reserves, repatriating their holdings from central banks to their vaults back home.
Hmmmmm. What’s up with that?

marketslant.com/articles/time-look-gold

 On the more political side here a note the recent London Bullion Market Association conference.
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 Regulation continued to weigh heavy on an industry with ever decreasing margins. As Stuart Murray, non-exec chairman at Sylvania Platinum, bluntly put it: “regulation is killing capitalism.”
There was a flurry of news out of the event, mainly linked to the ongoing reformation of the London over-the-counter market.
Things certainly seem to be heating up with the three exchanges currently managing the LBMA prices: the London Metal Exchange, ICE and CME Group.

platts.com/2016/10/20/gold-zero-wedge-margins-regulation









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