Saturday, April 7, 2018

Until They Aren't Anymore


"Everybody's talking about a new way of walking," go the lines of  a long forgotten popular tune.

And that seems to be the case with investors now and their growing concerns about rising volatility. Just how out of wack is current volatility? Not much by one criterion since after years of suffering a bad case of somnambulism, thanks mostly to the Fed, it has simply reverted to normal levels.

That new way of walking appears to be in the Treasury market as in bonds. Until recently bonds softened investor fears about falling equity prices and rising volatility. As investors in previous scary times flooded into bonds, bond prices escalated and bond yields declined. It was a safe no-brainer for many.  For others it became the average investor's version of the Federal Reserve under Fed Chair Yellen's put option. It was always there.

We've now had a 10 percent correction. But unlike the previous four 10 percent corrections, bond yields have not declined and bond prices have failed to rally, according to data on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note. Still another interesting indicator this time is the change in investor sentiment as they shy away from the long end of the bond parade and pile into shorter-term offerings.

So just walk right in and sit right down. Everybody's talking about a new way of walking. Daddy let your mind roll on. Like all of us, most things are there until they aren't any more. Some people refer to such as a paradigm change. Good or nay? As zen master said: "We shall see!"

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