Wednesday, March 20, 2013
THE BIG YAWN
Some say Washington with all its histrionics has given Wall Street a case of the yawns.
The recent no-reaction to Bernanke's pledge of further inaction is just one example.
Collectively, at least in some ways, the market is smarter than many believe. The deal to roll back any serious cuts until September, that's the stuff yawns are made from.
Now we know Fall is a beautiful time, hayrides, harvest moons and all that. Maybe by September we will all magically have forgotten the debt. The stock market, if Big Ben has anything to do with it, will provide the nepenthe.
But there's an easier, shorter way to achieve this. Just have Mr. Bloomberg and his crack crew draw it up. Nothing larger than 16 ounces, however. Just one straw. And please don't forget the outta-sight, outta-mind hotdog.
Or the President could declare a national holiday while the minority speaker of the house gets another lift. The thought of that is pretty distracting.
Now that economists have declared they're biased, maybe we could get the MSM and politicos to publicly announced the same. That should be good for a 5,000 point, one-day rally in the ole DJIA. C'mon, Ben, use your influence. One more old Princeton try.
Correlation just got caused by bias confirmation. It'll sell, Ben. Trust me.
And forget the Gipper. The Obamer just tossed a big completion for the meat inspectors, union folk all. Just as the pink slips were hitting the airway a Hail Mary suddenly spun past. It was a perfect spiral.
Part of the reason: Scare Tactic 101, the prospect of tainted meat. But if memory serves, a lot of tainted meat made the rounds given a full complement of inspectors.
But the Obamer might have head faked himself out of position here. A serious outbreak of meat-induced ptomaine could easily be hung on those popular Repubs.
Speaking of the Repubs, their defense is more porous than my old girlfriend's face. A one-eyed QB with a missing thumb on his throwing hand could toss for 400 yards against them--in the first quarter.
Now on to price stability. No, that's not a punk rock band. But it could be.
NIGHTY-NIGHT
BEDTIME FUN READING
http://www.mossadams.com/mossadams/media/Documents/Publications/MA%20Alerts/Alert_1212_IRS-Provides-Guidance-on-Additional-Medicare-Tax.pdf
A SNOOZER
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/caterpillar-retail-sales-fedex-earnings-fdx/3/20/2013/id/48835
THEY WANT THE MONEY
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/taxwatch/2013/03/19/tax-tip-seniors-dont-forget-april-1/
CHALK UP ONE FOR THE MEAT BOYS
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/20/senate-approves-measure-to-avert-usda-meat-inspect?ref=hp
HERE'S ONE FOR JUST BEFORE YOU TURN OUT THE LIGHTS
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/032013-648752-food-stamps-turn-rhode-island-town-upside-down.htm?ven=benzingacp
http://www.mossadams.com/mossadams/media/Documents/Publications/MA%20Alerts/Alert_1212_IRS-Provides-Guidance-on-Additional-Medicare-Tax.pdf
A SNOOZER
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/caterpillar-retail-sales-fedex-earnings-fdx/3/20/2013/id/48835
THEY WANT THE MONEY
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/taxwatch/2013/03/19/tax-tip-seniors-dont-forget-april-1/
CHALK UP ONE FOR THE MEAT BOYS
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/20/senate-approves-measure-to-avert-usda-meat-inspect?ref=hp
HERE'S ONE FOR JUST BEFORE YOU TURN OUT THE LIGHTS
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/032013-648752-food-stamps-turn-rhode-island-town-upside-down.htm?ven=benzingacp
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
TUESDAY READS
STEADY AS SHE DOES
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-me-worry-says-the-fed-2013-03-19?link=kiosk
WHAT NEXT?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/cyprus-rejects-deposit-levy-in-blow-to-european-bailout-plan.html
DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO YOU
http://www.inc.com/hollis-thomases/i-lost-thousands-of-dollars-dont-let-this-happen-to-you.html?cid=em01015week12d
BIG GAS, BIG MONEY
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/19/big-money-moving-natural-gas?ref=hp
BUREAUCRATS WILL BE BUREAUCRATS
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/french-minister-tasked-fighting-tax-fraud-resigns-having-secret-swiss-account
ELITE ATHLETES
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130318151634.htm
A NEVER ENDING QUESTION
It's a never ending question.
Just whom does one believe?
Last week big banks JP Morgan and Goldman Sacs drew some criticism from the Federal Reserve over the capital plans of the two giants. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond also faced claims that he tried to cover up a $6.2 billion trading loss by misleading regulators and investors.
For weeks now, especially since the run-up in the stock market, just about all we've been hearing is how much better prepared for an economic downturn, should it occur, the big banking industry is.
Neil Barofsky is a name most likely unfamiliar to many. A senior fellow at New York University, Barofsky is also a former special inspector general of the 2008-2009-born TARP or the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. The one used to supposedly right the USS Big Banking.
Barron's this past weekend ran a blurb, "Banking's Bitter Harvest," quoting Barofsky: "It's foolish to believe we're not on a path to another crisis." Now for the skeptics, it's true Barofsky has a new best-selling book out, "Bailout."
But nevertheless his point should be of interest. He says the big banks are even bigger today than before the bailout and still viewed as too big to fail.
Part of restoring public confidence is assuring that the banks have learned their lesson and are more financially sound for their ordeal. In many ways it's tied to the wealth effect the MSM pushes.
Take a look at this from The Big Picture.
http://t.ritholtz.com/bigpicture/#!/entry/discuss-customers-who-distrust-their-banks,5147ab21d7fc7b5670738c90
Or here.
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/03/the-least-trusted-banks-in-america/
Just whom does one believe?
Last week big banks JP Morgan and Goldman Sacs drew some criticism from the Federal Reserve over the capital plans of the two giants. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond also faced claims that he tried to cover up a $6.2 billion trading loss by misleading regulators and investors.
For weeks now, especially since the run-up in the stock market, just about all we've been hearing is how much better prepared for an economic downturn, should it occur, the big banking industry is.
Neil Barofsky is a name most likely unfamiliar to many. A senior fellow at New York University, Barofsky is also a former special inspector general of the 2008-2009-born TARP or the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. The one used to supposedly right the USS Big Banking.
Barron's this past weekend ran a blurb, "Banking's Bitter Harvest," quoting Barofsky: "It's foolish to believe we're not on a path to another crisis." Now for the skeptics, it's true Barofsky has a new best-selling book out, "Bailout."
But nevertheless his point should be of interest. He says the big banks are even bigger today than before the bailout and still viewed as too big to fail.
Part of restoring public confidence is assuring that the banks have learned their lesson and are more financially sound for their ordeal. In many ways it's tied to the wealth effect the MSM pushes.
Take a look at this from The Big Picture.
http://t.ritholtz.com/bigpicture/#!/entry/discuss-customers-who-distrust-their-banks,5147ab21d7fc7b5670738c90
Or here.
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/03/the-least-trusted-banks-in-america/
Monday, March 18, 2013
THE NANNY STATE CONTINUES TO GROW
A recent article about the explosion of Americans on food stamps, a fact many believe contributes to escalating food prices, quickly deteriorated in the comments section to a racial discussion.
And some people wonder why websites and even some in MSM are either considering or are blocking their comments sections. Too often the comments completely sidestep the issue and sink into ad hominid.
Dumb is what we say. Not too different from pretending that painful rock in your brogans ain't there.
The nanny state of which food stamps is only a part continues to grow. Think for a second of it as home prices or tech stocks or swamp land in the 1920s in Florida, one great big giant bubble. Bubbles have a way of getting pricked.
Discourse about how much is too much is futile. Like the federal deficit, we're long past that point. If you think it's painful now, just wait around. The paucity of real leadership in the world today is frightening.
If you need a clear example, see Cyprus. In the meantime here is a further insight into the growing nanny state. http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/welfare-costs-rapidly-escalating-everywhere.html
Make the mistake that the US is different if you want. Truth is welfare has become the proverbial room full of measles.
And some people wonder why websites and even some in MSM are either considering or are blocking their comments sections. Too often the comments completely sidestep the issue and sink into ad hominid.
Dumb is what we say. Not too different from pretending that painful rock in your brogans ain't there.
The nanny state of which food stamps is only a part continues to grow. Think for a second of it as home prices or tech stocks or swamp land in the 1920s in Florida, one great big giant bubble. Bubbles have a way of getting pricked.
Discourse about how much is too much is futile. Like the federal deficit, we're long past that point. If you think it's painful now, just wait around. The paucity of real leadership in the world today is frightening.
If you need a clear example, see Cyprus. In the meantime here is a further insight into the growing nanny state. http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/welfare-costs-rapidly-escalating-everywhere.html
Make the mistake that the US is different if you want. Truth is welfare has become the proverbial room full of measles.
CYPRUS
A butterfly flaps its wings in Asia and causes a tsunami of the coast of Florida.
Now that may not happen given the latest news about bank deposits in tiny Cyprus, an island of roughly one million off the coast of Greece.
The Cyprus government bought some more time earlier today when it apparently decided to delay any vote on the matter until Tuesday.
But don't be mislead by the smallness of Cyprus.
It is a full-fledged member of the EU and people are not so dense as to recognize that what happens in Cyprus doesn't always stay in Cyprus. Italy, Greece and Spain have bank depositors, too.
And they are not alone when it comes to the possibility of further assistance.
This has always been a northern versus southern riff with fiscally sounder northern countries like Germany and Finland reluctant to bail out its weaker, southern members of the EU.
Like most cases there are unforeseen ripples that become visible later. The UK has a military presence in Cyprus and with reportedly over 1.5 billion euros deposited there. Any tax would, whether Britain is compensated in some way, send further ripples back to the UK where many oppose any connection with the Eurozone.
Many Brits oppose giving up its sovereign currency. And this could easily fuel more I-told-you-so talk.
Russia may have a say. Initial response from Moscow has been critical. Russia supplies much of the EU's natural gas thirst, so it is hardly without bargaining chips.
As for Americans who for the most part are getting next nothing on their bank deposits, perception becomes even more important. It can happen here with revenue hungry federal, state and local governments conspicuously on the prowl.
Recall that many big banks here not that long ago wanted to charge ATM fees for withdrawing your own money. A fee is a tax whether it's imposed by private or public entities.
Read the Cyprus story carefully and you won't have any difficulty finding the tax term.
Now that may not happen given the latest news about bank deposits in tiny Cyprus, an island of roughly one million off the coast of Greece.
The Cyprus government bought some more time earlier today when it apparently decided to delay any vote on the matter until Tuesday.
But don't be mislead by the smallness of Cyprus.
It is a full-fledged member of the EU and people are not so dense as to recognize that what happens in Cyprus doesn't always stay in Cyprus. Italy, Greece and Spain have bank depositors, too.
And they are not alone when it comes to the possibility of further assistance.
This has always been a northern versus southern riff with fiscally sounder northern countries like Germany and Finland reluctant to bail out its weaker, southern members of the EU.
Like most cases there are unforeseen ripples that become visible later. The UK has a military presence in Cyprus and with reportedly over 1.5 billion euros deposited there. Any tax would, whether Britain is compensated in some way, send further ripples back to the UK where many oppose any connection with the Eurozone.
Many Brits oppose giving up its sovereign currency. And this could easily fuel more I-told-you-so talk.
Russia may have a say. Initial response from Moscow has been critical. Russia supplies much of the EU's natural gas thirst, so it is hardly without bargaining chips.
As for Americans who for the most part are getting next nothing on their bank deposits, perception becomes even more important. It can happen here with revenue hungry federal, state and local governments conspicuously on the prowl.
Recall that many big banks here not that long ago wanted to charge ATM fees for withdrawing your own money. A fee is a tax whether it's imposed by private or public entities.
Read the Cyprus story carefully and you won't have any difficulty finding the tax term.
MONDAY MORNING READS
FED TAPERING COULD TRIGGER
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-risk-harder-drop-if-fed-hints-at-tapering-2013-03-17
SO MUCH FOR PSI AND ONEOFF
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
COULD THIS SPILLOVER
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2013/03/17/cyprus-thai-baht-97-redux/
ASIAN STOCKS DOWN
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/asian-stocks-drop-most-in-month-on-cyprus-deposit-tax.html
US STOCKS FALL
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/u-s-stock-index-futures-drop-on-cyprus-bank-levy.html
Saturday, March 16, 2013
WEEK AHEAD
EUROPEAN DRAG
http://peakoil.com/consumption/17-signs-of-a-full-blown-economic-depression-raging-in-southern-europe
WEEK AHEAD
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/16/us-usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSBRE92E11620130316
LOWER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/15/consumer-sentiment-in-us-falls-to-lowest-point-in?ref=hp
FED WILL DRIVE THE HERD IN WEEK AHEAD
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100558245
Friday, March 15, 2013
MARKET WRAP
The market took a brief respite today, a long overdue one many believe, after 10-straight up days causing just as many others to believe the run is the beginning of the next prolonged bull market.
The DJIA closed down a big 25 points, or 0.2%, on heavier volume, at 14,514.11 while the S&P 500 index declined 2.5 points, 0.2%, leaving it just under 5 points from its all-time high.
The slight decline sets the table for next week to see which way the market goes, onward and upward to new highs or downward to some kind of meaningful correction.
The specter of inflation popped into the equation Friday when February's consumer prices showed a 0.7% increase, most of it coming from higher gasoline prices, according to the US Department of Labor.
Most believe that the trend in February will not impact future inflation and cause the Fed to change monetary policy. The easy-money trend, in other words, according to these watchers, is still intact.
It should be noted that many people don't trust the government's numbers, to beging with, arguing the Fed and other central banks along with some hedge fund folks have been keeping a lid on the price of gold.
Toss in a compliant MSM and you have all the necessary ingredients to bake the perception cake of your choice. Markets are to peception as perception is to wealth effect.
Next week investors will be watching the latest FOMC meeting, news about the propsects of growth in EU and budget discussions in the UK.
The DJIA closed down a big 25 points, or 0.2%, on heavier volume, at 14,514.11 while the S&P 500 index declined 2.5 points, 0.2%, leaving it just under 5 points from its all-time high.
The slight decline sets the table for next week to see which way the market goes, onward and upward to new highs or downward to some kind of meaningful correction.
The specter of inflation popped into the equation Friday when February's consumer prices showed a 0.7% increase, most of it coming from higher gasoline prices, according to the US Department of Labor.
Most believe that the trend in February will not impact future inflation and cause the Fed to change monetary policy. The easy-money trend, in other words, according to these watchers, is still intact.
It should be noted that many people don't trust the government's numbers, to beging with, arguing the Fed and other central banks along with some hedge fund folks have been keeping a lid on the price of gold.
Toss in a compliant MSM and you have all the necessary ingredients to bake the perception cake of your choice. Markets are to peception as perception is to wealth effect.
Next week investors will be watching the latest FOMC meeting, news about the propsects of growth in EU and budget discussions in the UK.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
OUR TAKE
They say no risk no gain.
Here's our short-term view on this market. Expect a 5-6% pullback. We raised some cash recently for the pull back to buy at better prices. Know ahead of time what you want to buy. Stick with quality.
It's not the first half of this year we're worried about. If the second half gets ugly you may still get slammed, but you'll be glad you own quality.
The truth is no one--and we mean no one--knows for certain the future of this run, flash in the pan, mini-bull or major full speed ahead.
Ask yourself this question. Do you drive around at different hours of the day and night with a flat spare tire in your trunk?
Here's our short-term view on this market. Expect a 5-6% pullback. We raised some cash recently for the pull back to buy at better prices. Know ahead of time what you want to buy. Stick with quality.
It's not the first half of this year we're worried about. If the second half gets ugly you may still get slammed, but you'll be glad you own quality.
The truth is no one--and we mean no one--knows for certain the future of this run, flash in the pan, mini-bull or major full speed ahead.
Ask yourself this question. Do you drive around at different hours of the day and night with a flat spare tire in your trunk?
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