GOOD FRIDAY READS

Big Brother
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/28/aclu-stingray-surveillance-police-cellphones

Later Or Sooner
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/28/default-only-answer-to-cyprus-crisis-mark-mobius/

US Migration
http://news.investors.com/032813-649561-americans-are-migrating-to-more-free-republican-states.aspx?ref=HPLNews

Buy Or Lease
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/03/27/car-buy-lease-readers-advice/

DOES IT MATTER?

Analogies can be dangerous.

Comparing one thing to another can often leave room for criticism.

In this case, however, when it comes to trusting bureaucrats to look after your welfare and that of greater society, the rewards far outweigh the risks.

We all know that so-called watchdogs in the US failed to keep their eyes on the hen house in more than one bubble since 2000. The too big to fail, for example, in the view of many has simply led to fewer, even bigger too big to fail financial institutions.

If you read the following story you'll learn, if you don't already know, that such events given the recent Cyprus turmoil, aren't unique to the US. Boys might be boys as the old saying goes. But so are bureaucrats.

In the late 1990s the UK faced a banking crisis. Confidence waned and a new government watchdog, the FSA, was established to prevent it from happening again. The rest, as by now, you should already know.

Initials get changed, a few chairs shuffled. But business as usual prevails.

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/27/fsa-fails-to-reach-16th-birthday-as-crisis-spoils?ref=hp

THURSDAY READS

Oil Demand Drying Up? 
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2013/03/27/citi-to-wall-street-oil-demand-may-peak-before-decade-is-over/

So Much For More Choices
http://www.futurity.org/society-culture/more-choices-lead-to-bigger-gambles/

Asian Sell Off
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100598570?__source=stocktracker&par=stocktracker

Gold Worst Quarter
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/gold-headed-for-worst-quarterly-run-since-2001-amid-weak-demand.html

Gloom And Doom
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/27/marc-faber-aka-dr-doom-says-theres-nowhere-to-hide-from-bubblegeddon-not-even-gold/

Actuaries Spread More Gloom
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/health-exchange/2013/03/27/actuaries-say-individual-plan-claims-will-rise-32-under-obamacare/

LAND OF THE NEARSIGHTED

A long weekend awaits.

Traders traditionally don't like to go into three day weekends with positions that could turn vulnerable quickly.

 Given all the turmoil in Europe and other spots, we could see further weakness into Thursday since the market will observe Good Friday. A recent survey in France revealed  80% believe their country is bankrupt. Are they realists or just slow learners?

At the same time the trouble warrants some snooping as Euro shares take a hit. If you buy into the US recovery story, you might want to snoop out some of Europe's better multinationals. They're out there.

Money always leaves the overbought. Buy what's cheap. If you don't know what's cheap, find out. 

If you think deflation is the problem, then the safer bet favors utilities and drug stocks, things people depend on and use like booze and tobacco and sex. 

If you like to buy the out-of-favor, downtrodden, snoop around cyclicals and mining companies particularly gold mining shares. Some even offer decent payouts like Newmont.

We know gold is under pressure, hedge fund selling, prospects of stronger dollar and higher interest rates. A key question here is when does the Fed's QE end, this year or early next. Big Ben surely wants to put it to bed for his legacy before he ponies back to the College of New Jersey, otherwise known as Woodrow Wilson U.

Rather than hide from the turmoil embrace it. It is what it is. Chaos creates opportunity. As long as you know your tolerance level, have done your homework and you understand the risks, you can still get jarred. But you're not flying blindly.

Leave that for the politicians and the bureaucrats. If there were just put options on those boys and gals, we could all get George-Soros rich.

Remember cyclops rule in the land of the nearsighted.

SO MUCH FOR ACCURACY

To use the following linked study's own words: The chart’s data were taken from a 50,000-loan sample of Freddie Mac-backed fully amortizing 30-year fixed-rate single-family mortgages that were originated in 2011.

These were not those subprime honeys done way back in 2005 or so. These were fixed-rate loans that usually require much more diligence on the borrower to meet more stringent standards of the lender. 

It shouldn't pump up your confidence in bureaucrats. What this should tell you is these folks have a hard time getting it right even under supposedly the best of conditions.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/27/new-freddie-mac-data-show-the-difficulty-in-identifying-mortgage-risks/

WEDNESDAY READS

IF YOU USE FACEBOOK OR LINKEDIN
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Facebook-Vs-LinkedIn-Why-Both-Are/3/26/2013/id/48919?page=full

HOW REAL IS THE REAL ESTATE RECOVERY?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-decline-in-february-2013-03-27

HOW LOW CAN EURO GO?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/27/us-markets-forex-idUSBRE92E11120130327

SOUND LIKE SOUND POLICY TO YOU?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-27/fannie-mae-regulator-sets-no-doc-modifications-to-help-borrowers.html

ANOTHER VIEW ON RECOVERY
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/26/five-ways-deflation-has-already-taken-hold-in-us?ref=hp

MISBEGOTTEN

Some might call it Expansion Hunger.

Others: Be careful what you wish for. A lot people recognize it for what it really is, just broke. In this case, politically bankrupt.

The trouble with truth it has little traction. It's an unwanted guest, not welcome. Take a gander at Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh for the real lowdown: "The lie of the pipe dream is what gives life to the whole misbegotten mad lot of us, drunk or sober."

O'Neill's classic is about murder. Murder takes many forms. Kill the fantasies of tomorrow and what is one left with. Just pipe dreams.

And that's what many believe how Euroland will eventually end up, a misbegotten, bumbled, fumbled pipe dream.

http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-is-politically-bankrupt-2013-3

TIME IN ALL THINGS

Since the start of the year, notwithstanding an anemic 3% February correction, it's been pretty much up, up and away.

For weeks now since the DJIA broke into new territory focus shifted to the S&P 500. When would the famous index join its brethren? It's as they say a when not an if.

A broader, much more intriguing question is, then what? More new, greater heights or will it prove in a month or so to be the beginning of a meaningful correction?

We all know about worry-walls. We also know about head-in-the-sand types.And one could postulate we all know them by another monicker, Democrats and Republicans.

A lot of previous bears lately have suddenly got that old time religion. They've jumped on the bull market bandwagon. Could this be a contrarian sign? Or did they get it right?

All things in their time.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-market-timing-dead-2013-03-26?link=MW_story_investinginsight

MORE EXPECTED THAN DIABOLICAL

A story today on Zero Hedge raises the question is the plan of Euro politicians to force depositors to spend their money to help revive the sick economy. 

If it is it wouldn't be the first time. In fact, doing so is one of the basic tenets of Keynesian economics. Saving beyond planned investments, excessive saving in the Keynesian view, is a major problem. It can cause recession, even depression.

One of the often-quoted points US bulls make for a future equity run-up is all that cash sitting in low-yielding checking and saving accounts. Toss that in with overflowing corporate coffers and the buy back scene.

Keynes believed that savings don't necessarily decline with falling interest rates. 

Never under estimate political zeal.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-26/diabolical-master-plan-behind-crushing-europes-depositors

TUESDAY READS

CONTRARIAN SIGN?
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/03/25/bullish-crowd-attracts-yet-another-member/

CYPRUS BAILOUT FAILS TO BOOST S&P 500 TO RECORD
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2013-03/26/c_132262736.htm

BOND PRICES UP
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/26/markets-usa-bonds-idUSL2N0CI13320130326

CANADIAN STOCKS GOLD LOWER
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/26/markets-canada-stocks-idUSL2N0CI0WO20130326