WEEKEND READS

ONCE THE SAFEST
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/money-market-funds-are-a-most-dangerous-investment-2013-03-29?pagenumber=2

BEWARE OF THE HUNGARIAN FORINT
http://www.bondvigilantes.com/

CONGRESS EXPORTING MORE IGNORANCE
http://cafehayek.com/

KNOW YOUR FRIENDLY DENTIST
http://www.chron.com/news/us/article/HIV-test-urged-for-7-000-Oklahoma-dental-patients-4392561.php

OIL,STEEL, RAIL AND AYN RAND
http://blogs.oilandgasinvestor.com/

JINGOISM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/29/us-korea-north-idUSBRE92R13R20130329

MUCH NEEDED HARD TO DIGEST

We came across a French poll earlier this year that showed 80% of the people polled believed their country was bankrupt.

Well, here's France's new president, Francois Hollande, a Socialist many in European media gloated over when he won, calling for no new taxes, protecting defense spending, cutting state spending and red tape for businesses.

Mr. Obama and Mr. Krugman, are you paying attention?

French unemployment is in double-digit land and the spread premium between German and French 10-year government bonds widened again recently, up 16 basis points since last December. 

More incentives for those drawing unemployment to return to work, unbelievable coming from a socialist politician.

But the real irony is many of these changes are mere extensions of those started by his free-market talking predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy.

According to polls Hollande is the most unpopular French president in 30 years. 

One thing remains clear. Such changes, if they get implemented, would have digested a lot smoother had they been done a lot earlier.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/hollande-presses-french-to-embrace-social-revamp-to-spur-growth.html

BEWARE OF OCTOPI ON PEDS

It's that time of year again, tax time. 

Since the market is closed Good Friday and markets in Europe will be off  Monday, maybe a little levity in the face of all the turmoil going on might lighten things up a bit. We'll see.

Nearly a decade ago when my retired partner and I ran a small Newport Beach investment boutique for private clients, we ran into a lot of AMT, the alternative investment tax. In short, it's one of Congress' most clucked-headed, dumbest ideas. And that covers some serious ground.

 And that's where the levity comes in. Sometimes you have to just laugh at the stupidity of these folks, it's magnitude.  We spent a lot of  keyboard time writing about it then, trying to inform and warn.  It's like an octopus on performance enhancing drugs whose tentacles keep getting longer every year.

Yet there's something about even the mildly complex that turns many people off. That is, until it hits their wallet and they have to tell their significant other.

We'll spare you the angry-provoking details.  It's another one of those to-get-the-few-you-concoct-an idiotic-complex tax that eventually gets the innocent and the many and zero of the few.

So with that introduction, happy tax time to all and here is a link for your reading pleasure.

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/03/28/10-Tax-Laws-That-Hurt-the-Economy-Most.aspx#page1

GOOD FRIDAY READS

Big Brother
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/28/aclu-stingray-surveillance-police-cellphones

Later Or Sooner
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/28/default-only-answer-to-cyprus-crisis-mark-mobius/

US Migration
http://news.investors.com/032813-649561-americans-are-migrating-to-more-free-republican-states.aspx?ref=HPLNews

Buy Or Lease
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/03/27/car-buy-lease-readers-advice/

DOES IT MATTER?

Analogies can be dangerous.

Comparing one thing to another can often leave room for criticism.

In this case, however, when it comes to trusting bureaucrats to look after your welfare and that of greater society, the rewards far outweigh the risks.

We all know that so-called watchdogs in the US failed to keep their eyes on the hen house in more than one bubble since 2000. The too big to fail, for example, in the view of many has simply led to fewer, even bigger too big to fail financial institutions.

If you read the following story you'll learn, if you don't already know, that such events given the recent Cyprus turmoil, aren't unique to the US. Boys might be boys as the old saying goes. But so are bureaucrats.

In the late 1990s the UK faced a banking crisis. Confidence waned and a new government watchdog, the FSA, was established to prevent it from happening again. The rest, as by now, you should already know.

Initials get changed, a few chairs shuffled. But business as usual prevails.

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/27/fsa-fails-to-reach-16th-birthday-as-crisis-spoils?ref=hp

THURSDAY READS

Oil Demand Drying Up? 
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2013/03/27/citi-to-wall-street-oil-demand-may-peak-before-decade-is-over/

So Much For More Choices
http://www.futurity.org/society-culture/more-choices-lead-to-bigger-gambles/

Asian Sell Off
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100598570?__source=stocktracker&par=stocktracker

Gold Worst Quarter
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/gold-headed-for-worst-quarterly-run-since-2001-amid-weak-demand.html

Gloom And Doom
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/27/marc-faber-aka-dr-doom-says-theres-nowhere-to-hide-from-bubblegeddon-not-even-gold/

Actuaries Spread More Gloom
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/health-exchange/2013/03/27/actuaries-say-individual-plan-claims-will-rise-32-under-obamacare/

LAND OF THE NEARSIGHTED

A long weekend awaits.

Traders traditionally don't like to go into three day weekends with positions that could turn vulnerable quickly.

 Given all the turmoil in Europe and other spots, we could see further weakness into Thursday since the market will observe Good Friday. A recent survey in France revealed  80% believe their country is bankrupt. Are they realists or just slow learners?

At the same time the trouble warrants some snooping as Euro shares take a hit. If you buy into the US recovery story, you might want to snoop out some of Europe's better multinationals. They're out there.

Money always leaves the overbought. Buy what's cheap. If you don't know what's cheap, find out. 

If you think deflation is the problem, then the safer bet favors utilities and drug stocks, things people depend on and use like booze and tobacco and sex. 

If you like to buy the out-of-favor, downtrodden, snoop around cyclicals and mining companies particularly gold mining shares. Some even offer decent payouts like Newmont.

We know gold is under pressure, hedge fund selling, prospects of stronger dollar and higher interest rates. A key question here is when does the Fed's QE end, this year or early next. Big Ben surely wants to put it to bed for his legacy before he ponies back to the College of New Jersey, otherwise known as Woodrow Wilson U.

Rather than hide from the turmoil embrace it. It is what it is. Chaos creates opportunity. As long as you know your tolerance level, have done your homework and you understand the risks, you can still get jarred. But you're not flying blindly.

Leave that for the politicians and the bureaucrats. If there were just put options on those boys and gals, we could all get George-Soros rich.

Remember cyclops rule in the land of the nearsighted.

SO MUCH FOR ACCURACY

To use the following linked study's own words: The chart’s data were taken from a 50,000-loan sample of Freddie Mac-backed fully amortizing 30-year fixed-rate single-family mortgages that were originated in 2011.

These were not those subprime honeys done way back in 2005 or so. These were fixed-rate loans that usually require much more diligence on the borrower to meet more stringent standards of the lender. 

It shouldn't pump up your confidence in bureaucrats. What this should tell you is these folks have a hard time getting it right even under supposedly the best of conditions.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/27/new-freddie-mac-data-show-the-difficulty-in-identifying-mortgage-risks/

WEDNESDAY READS

IF YOU USE FACEBOOK OR LINKEDIN
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Facebook-Vs-LinkedIn-Why-Both-Are/3/26/2013/id/48919?page=full

HOW REAL IS THE REAL ESTATE RECOVERY?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-decline-in-february-2013-03-27

HOW LOW CAN EURO GO?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/27/us-markets-forex-idUSBRE92E11120130327

SOUND LIKE SOUND POLICY TO YOU?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-27/fannie-mae-regulator-sets-no-doc-modifications-to-help-borrowers.html

ANOTHER VIEW ON RECOVERY
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/26/five-ways-deflation-has-already-taken-hold-in-us?ref=hp

MISBEGOTTEN

Some might call it Expansion Hunger.

Others: Be careful what you wish for. A lot people recognize it for what it really is, just broke. In this case, politically bankrupt.

The trouble with truth it has little traction. It's an unwanted guest, not welcome. Take a gander at Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh for the real lowdown: "The lie of the pipe dream is what gives life to the whole misbegotten mad lot of us, drunk or sober."

O'Neill's classic is about murder. Murder takes many forms. Kill the fantasies of tomorrow and what is one left with. Just pipe dreams.

And that's what many believe how Euroland will eventually end up, a misbegotten, bumbled, fumbled pipe dream.

http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-is-politically-bankrupt-2013-3