We've written about Coach COH before. If you go through our posts you'll find the blurb.
Below is link to more info on company. We think it's a clear bargain compared to Michael Kors. We think COH will make intelligent and important acquisitions as well as manage any previously thought disturbances in the long run.
http://ycharts.com/analysis/story/unlike_its_handbags_coach_may_now_be_a_steal?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=YCharts+Analysis+Digest+MRK+COH+KORS+-+Non-Pro+-+DIGEST&utm_content=YCharts+Analysis+Digest+MRK+COH+KORS+-+Non-Pro+-+DIGEST+CID_931395e7da6cd13fb78fea4880d8e9ab&utm_source=email&utm_term=Unlike%20Its%20Handbags%20Coach%20May%20Now%20Be%20a%20Steal
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Monday, June 17, 2013
MONDAY READS
Have Jobs Will Travel
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/italians-flock-to-berlin-to-join-flourishing-start-up-scene-a-903908.html
$100 Barrel Oil?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100819317
The Fed And The Market http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/06/16/Will-the-Fed-Be-Able-to-Rein-in-Volatile-Markets.aspx#page1
Economist Defends The 1%
http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/mankiw/files/defending_the_one_percent.pdf
Fed Meeting Hangs Over Market
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/17/us-markets-global-idUSBRE88901C20130617
Figure It Out
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/big-short-on-aussie-tells-loomis-time-to-buy-australia-credit.html
Good Or Bad For Economy
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/14/pf/credit-cards/index.html?iid=Lead
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/italians-flock-to-berlin-to-join-flourishing-start-up-scene-a-903908.html
$100 Barrel Oil?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100819317
The Fed And The Market http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/06/16/Will-the-Fed-Be-Able-to-Rein-in-Volatile-Markets.aspx#page1
Economist Defends The 1%
http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/mankiw/files/defending_the_one_percent.pdf
Fed Meeting Hangs Over Market
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/17/us-markets-global-idUSBRE88901C20130617
Figure It Out
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/big-short-on-aussie-tells-loomis-time-to-buy-australia-credit.html
Good Or Bad For Economy
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/14/pf/credit-cards/index.html?iid=Lead
Sunday, June 16, 2013
ABOUT TIME
For a long time we've railed against the CDC nonsense about the flu vaccine.
Now a Johns Hopkins flu expert steps into the breech of what has been suspected for some time. First these flu scares are just that--over-hyped scares. But the over-reaction about the flu isn't the only area where the CDC is little more than a panic-mongering group of pseudo-scientists who love power and authority.
That power and authority is the life's blood of their funding. Much of what they do is little more than incestuous scientific masturbation. Keep the funds coming. Vaccine makers love the CDC.
These vaccines, like the ones for pneumonia and herpes zoster, to name just two, are aggressively hawked by health care organizations and big-time workman's comp providers, mostly as a so-called preventative and public service. Hundreds of firms have one of these health care providers come out annually and inoculate their entire staff. It's like an annual annuity that just keeps throwing off income.
Walk into any major pharmacy during the so-called flu season and you'll see ads for the flu shot. The smell of money is everywhere. This is a self-perpetuating sham. America is the most over-medicated, over-inoculated nation on the planet.
Another one is the tetanus vaccine. It used to be marketed for every 10 years. Now overly-aggressive health care providers push it on unsuspecting patients every five or eight years. And they have, like more and more things in medicine, expanded or widened the net for those who supposedly should get it.
http://www.newsmaxhealth.com/Newswidget/flu-shot-risks-benefits/2013/06/14/id/510050?promo_code=F492-1&utm_source=Test_Newsmax_Feed&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1
Now a Johns Hopkins flu expert steps into the breech of what has been suspected for some time. First these flu scares are just that--over-hyped scares. But the over-reaction about the flu isn't the only area where the CDC is little more than a panic-mongering group of pseudo-scientists who love power and authority.
That power and authority is the life's blood of their funding. Much of what they do is little more than incestuous scientific masturbation. Keep the funds coming. Vaccine makers love the CDC.
These vaccines, like the ones for pneumonia and herpes zoster, to name just two, are aggressively hawked by health care organizations and big-time workman's comp providers, mostly as a so-called preventative and public service. Hundreds of firms have one of these health care providers come out annually and inoculate their entire staff. It's like an annual annuity that just keeps throwing off income.
Walk into any major pharmacy during the so-called flu season and you'll see ads for the flu shot. The smell of money is everywhere. This is a self-perpetuating sham. America is the most over-medicated, over-inoculated nation on the planet.
Another one is the tetanus vaccine. It used to be marketed for every 10 years. Now overly-aggressive health care providers push it on unsuspecting patients every five or eight years. And they have, like more and more things in medicine, expanded or widened the net for those who supposedly should get it.
http://www.newsmaxhealth.com/Newswidget/flu-shot-risks-benefits/2013/06/14/id/510050?promo_code=F492-1&utm_source=Test_Newsmax_Feed&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1
A FEW CENTS SHORT
I'm a few cents short.
I'm a few cents short of putting gasoline in my car. Ain't it funny how the money can change our lives. I'm a few cents short of seeing you tonight, a few cents short of being where you are.
I'm a few cents short of holding you in my arms, a few cents short of keeping us from falling apart.
Those are the words of a John Michael Montgomery song from the past. Most of us know that feeling. Most of us at one time or another have been a few cents short.
Today it's more like a few dollars. It's funny how the money can change our lives. And that's the big concern among investors if and when Bernanke and crew cut off the liquidity spigot. The proof's in the market's recent jitteriness.
Turning off the spigot finally is a newly sharpened blade. For investors caught on the wrong side of that action it could turn out like a dark and stormy night, a season full of rain and a horde of investment portfolios full of pain.
A popular gym saying a while back was go big or go home. Here it's more like get it right or get poorer.
The trend may be your friend, but politicians, bureaucrats and markets ain't. All three can turn into your darkest nightmare. Take your eye off the bouncing ball now and you'll most likely turn up more than a few cents short.
I'm a few cents short of putting gasoline in my car. Ain't it funny how the money can change our lives. I'm a few cents short of seeing you tonight, a few cents short of being where you are.
I'm a few cents short of holding you in my arms, a few cents short of keeping us from falling apart.
Those are the words of a John Michael Montgomery song from the past. Most of us know that feeling. Most of us at one time or another have been a few cents short.
Today it's more like a few dollars. It's funny how the money can change our lives. And that's the big concern among investors if and when Bernanke and crew cut off the liquidity spigot. The proof's in the market's recent jitteriness.
Turning off the spigot finally is a newly sharpened blade. For investors caught on the wrong side of that action it could turn out like a dark and stormy night, a season full of rain and a horde of investment portfolios full of pain.
A popular gym saying a while back was go big or go home. Here it's more like get it right or get poorer.
The trend may be your friend, but politicians, bureaucrats and markets ain't. All three can turn into your darkest nightmare. Take your eye off the bouncing ball now and you'll most likely turn up more than a few cents short.
Saturday, June 15, 2013
BRIEFS
Once again investors need to learn a vital lesson from what's going on in Detroit.
Profligate governments that will not voluntarily right their fiscal houses should have their financial feet held to the free-market flame. One way to do it is never, ever, no matter how enticing the offer, lend them your money for unsecured securities.
Avoid investing in any institutional firms that might do so also. Forget the rating agencies; they've proved irrelevant for the most part. Shareholders can send a message to companies that buy this unsecured government garbage. We will avoid your products and dump your equities.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324688404578545373282545626.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
_________
Addictive Nipple
If you already don't know, Ben Bernanke's set to speak next Wednesday. By some estimates Bernanke might be the second most powerful bureaucrat on the globe. People hang on every utterance.
The important utterance this time, as it has been for awhile, will be about liquidity--to continue or not to continue it, the economic equivalent of Hamlet.
Liquidity is the oxygen of any free market, but to paraphrase Winston Churchill, never have so many depended on so few for so much. The few, besides Big Ben, include Japanese, Chinese and EU central bankers.
Fear begets people heading for exits. The nipple can become addictive.
_______
Profligate governments that will not voluntarily right their fiscal houses should have their financial feet held to the free-market flame. One way to do it is never, ever, no matter how enticing the offer, lend them your money for unsecured securities.
Avoid investing in any institutional firms that might do so also. Forget the rating agencies; they've proved irrelevant for the most part. Shareholders can send a message to companies that buy this unsecured government garbage. We will avoid your products and dump your equities.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324688404578545373282545626.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
_________
Addictive Nipple
If you already don't know, Ben Bernanke's set to speak next Wednesday. By some estimates Bernanke might be the second most powerful bureaucrat on the globe. People hang on every utterance.
The important utterance this time, as it has been for awhile, will be about liquidity--to continue or not to continue it, the economic equivalent of Hamlet.
Liquidity is the oxygen of any free market, but to paraphrase Winston Churchill, never have so many depended on so few for so much. The few, besides Big Ben, include Japanese, Chinese and EU central bankers.
Fear begets people heading for exits. The nipple can become addictive.
_______
Friday, June 14, 2013
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
We never use the term tip. Tips are more dangerous than my old girlfriend.
Do your homework. Energy has been one of the orphans in this segment of market euphoria. The market will set interest rates, not Bernanke. Bonds hate inflation. Talk about energy surpluses is rife in the news. Economic slowdown fears are on nearly everyone's lips.
Expect the unexpected. Look where most aren't. Energy.
------
Do your homework. Energy has been one of the orphans in this segment of market euphoria. The market will set interest rates, not Bernanke. Bonds hate inflation. Talk about energy surpluses is rife in the news. Economic slowdown fears are on nearly everyone's lips.
Expect the unexpected. Look where most aren't. Energy.
------
AT IT AGAIN
A while back we wrote about the market, not the Fed, raising interest rates. The Fed for what it's worth is a lagging indicator, always behind the curve.
They were behind the curve cutting rates when this whole mess started and they're behind now. Look at mortgage rates. The opening paragraph of a front page story in today's WSJ states: "A surprise spike in mortgage rates threatens to halt refinancing boom that has delivered strong profits for U.S. banks over the past two years."
Part of the the Fed's ploy to bail out the banking industry, an industry that still needs a real housecleaning since little has changed, was to convince regular folks all is well with the Fed on the scene. The housing market is about as close to ordinary folks as the White House is to Pennsylvania Avenue. Make no mistake, the Fed's being on the scene is the problem.
See the recent issue of Pimco guru Bill Gross' Investment Outlook. Gross points out interest rates nearly everywhere are lower than a duck's belly and the duck ain't looking too healthy either. For openers Gross cites the cost of money in the UK.
At 50 basis points short-term rates there, he notes, "are now nearly 2% lower than they have ever been, which is a long time." At no time during the last three centuries has "the Bank of England dropped rates below 2%."
For another view see "Landlord, Inc." in the latest issue of "Forbes."
They were behind the curve cutting rates when this whole mess started and they're behind now. Look at mortgage rates. The opening paragraph of a front page story in today's WSJ states: "A surprise spike in mortgage rates threatens to halt refinancing boom that has delivered strong profits for U.S. banks over the past two years."
Part of the the Fed's ploy to bail out the banking industry, an industry that still needs a real housecleaning since little has changed, was to convince regular folks all is well with the Fed on the scene. The housing market is about as close to ordinary folks as the White House is to Pennsylvania Avenue. Make no mistake, the Fed's being on the scene is the problem.
See the recent issue of Pimco guru Bill Gross' Investment Outlook. Gross points out interest rates nearly everywhere are lower than a duck's belly and the duck ain't looking too healthy either. For openers Gross cites the cost of money in the UK.
At 50 basis points short-term rates there, he notes, "are now nearly 2% lower than they have ever been, which is a long time." At no time during the last three centuries has "the Bank of England dropped rates below 2%."
For another view see "Landlord, Inc." in the latest issue of "Forbes."
FRIDAY'S READ
Here's a thought for you. Give some time to it and see what you think.
The nearly total unanimity of belief that something is true doesn't make it true.
Most plants need some water. Water is a form of energy. Without water many plants wither and die.
Energy comes in many forms, sunlight, water, wind, air. Words and thoughts have their own kind of energy. Strung together just so and they can become propaganda.
And that brings us full circle to unanimity. For a belief to become so pervasive someone, in fact, lots of someones have to be putting energy into it.
Media and politicians and lobbyists and bureaucrats and marketers should readily bubble to mind. Wall Street is another example, possibly one of the more dangerous ones when it comes to your economic well being.
Perhaps the most recent case, as the WSJ noted yesterday, is that of TIPS, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, and the mass exodus out of them by investors. There can never be a mass exodus without first having a mass entry.
The explanation, according to one line of thinking, is concern the Federal Reserve will soon reverse or start tapering its now notorious bond buying scheme.
The fear of too much liquidity created by the Fed caused investor concern about future inflation. So investors scrambled into TIPS, pushing their prices up and potential returns down paying up for what can basically be described as a feel-good premium.
The US economy is on the mend and the Fed's succor no longer needed goes this line of thought. In early 2012 there was an investor rush out of EU sovereign debt. The near total unanimity of belief then was default. And it still might happened. During the interim, however, numerous other things have happened, many of them contrary to the then prevailing near unanimity.
Another apparent gathering unanimity of thought today is, like the smartest kid in the dumbest row at school, the US economy is the strongest weakling among a core of global economic weaklings. So money will continue to flock here pushing up the prices of all kinds of US assets.
The nearly total unanimity of belief that something is true doesn't make it true.
Most plants need some water. Water is a form of energy. Without water many plants wither and die.
Energy comes in many forms, sunlight, water, wind, air. Words and thoughts have their own kind of energy. Strung together just so and they can become propaganda.
And that brings us full circle to unanimity. For a belief to become so pervasive someone, in fact, lots of someones have to be putting energy into it.
Media and politicians and lobbyists and bureaucrats and marketers should readily bubble to mind. Wall Street is another example, possibly one of the more dangerous ones when it comes to your economic well being.
Perhaps the most recent case, as the WSJ noted yesterday, is that of TIPS, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, and the mass exodus out of them by investors. There can never be a mass exodus without first having a mass entry.
The explanation, according to one line of thinking, is concern the Federal Reserve will soon reverse or start tapering its now notorious bond buying scheme.
The fear of too much liquidity created by the Fed caused investor concern about future inflation. So investors scrambled into TIPS, pushing their prices up and potential returns down paying up for what can basically be described as a feel-good premium.
The US economy is on the mend and the Fed's succor no longer needed goes this line of thought. In early 2012 there was an investor rush out of EU sovereign debt. The near total unanimity of belief then was default. And it still might happened. During the interim, however, numerous other things have happened, many of them contrary to the then prevailing near unanimity.
Another apparent gathering unanimity of thought today is, like the smartest kid in the dumbest row at school, the US economy is the strongest weakling among a core of global economic weaklings. So money will continue to flock here pushing up the prices of all kinds of US assets.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
THURSDAY READS
How Much Worse
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-12/guest-post-why-things-will-get-worse-much-worse
Capital Flight Spreads
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-13/emerging-markets-from-brazil-to-india-act-to-stem-capital-flight.html
Bailing On Argentina Again
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/13/us-argentina-economy-insight-idUSBRE95C04T20130613
Falling Junk
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/12/martin-fridson-the-junk-bond-market-hasnt-come-down-to-earth/
Small Caps In Favor
http://investorplace.com/2013/06/a-point-for-the-bulls-small-cap-stocks-reclaim-leadership/
Level Playing Field?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578515963191421602.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
Five Hundred
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/12/us-usa-congress-fundraising-insight-idUSBRE95B05520130612
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-12/guest-post-why-things-will-get-worse-much-worse
Capital Flight Spreads
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-13/emerging-markets-from-brazil-to-india-act-to-stem-capital-flight.html
Bailing On Argentina Again
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/13/us-argentina-economy-insight-idUSBRE95C04T20130613
Falling Junk
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/12/martin-fridson-the-junk-bond-market-hasnt-come-down-to-earth/
Small Caps In Favor
http://investorplace.com/2013/06/a-point-for-the-bulls-small-cap-stocks-reclaim-leadership/
Level Playing Field?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578515963191421602.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
Five Hundred
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/12/us-usa-congress-fundraising-insight-idUSBRE95B05520130612
DOUBLE-EDGED
The following is one of the contrarian articles we often look for, not that what it proposes won't happen. That's not the point.
Note in the article the contrarian point a our drug stocks falling off patent-experiation cliffs. We've been riding those drug stocks higher for some time. No hubris intended.
Without risk there's no upside. Period. Pepsi knocking out a recent all-time high notwithstanding. That's not the question. The question is how long and why do I want to own it and when did I buy it.
It's snack food company and there is political risk here, too. Know why you're buying and owning a company. We own Pepsi. And we will either sell covered calls, buy puts or whatever, but we will continue to own some shares.
http://investorplace.com/2013/06/4-high-fliers-that-could-crash-land-soon/view-all/
------
Be careful what you wish for is an old bromide.
In reality, it's a newly sharpened blade of a double-edged sword, especially when it comes to liquidity.
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/06/12/us-30-year-bonds-tapering-proves-a-double-edged-sw?eNL=51b89b621b4f3aee33000053&_LID=287557&t=financials&page=2
Note in the article the contrarian point a our drug stocks falling off patent-experiation cliffs. We've been riding those drug stocks higher for some time. No hubris intended.
Without risk there's no upside. Period. Pepsi knocking out a recent all-time high notwithstanding. That's not the question. The question is how long and why do I want to own it and when did I buy it.
It's snack food company and there is political risk here, too. Know why you're buying and owning a company. We own Pepsi. And we will either sell covered calls, buy puts or whatever, but we will continue to own some shares.
http://investorplace.com/2013/06/4-high-fliers-that-could-crash-land-soon/view-all/
------
Be careful what you wish for is an old bromide.
In reality, it's a newly sharpened blade of a double-edged sword, especially when it comes to liquidity.
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/06/12/us-30-year-bonds-tapering-proves-a-double-edged-sw?eNL=51b89b621b4f3aee33000053&_LID=287557&t=financials&page=2
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