DECISION MAKING

Anyone who thinks real inflation is anywhere near being below two percent is still suffering from a bad case of birth canal trauma.

Those fontenelles, or soft spots in the fetal skull, are suppose to remain flexible to allow undamaged passage through the birth canal during delivery. It's obvious in some cases that never happens.

And that's probably another good reason to mandate C-sections for any mother suspected of wanting her offspring to grow up and become a bureaucrat or politician.

Most people recognize that the Consumer Price Index is cooked. Over the years it's been changed so often to keep out the disturbing stuff it should be called the Chameleon Price Index.

Meanwhile, back at the big economic Eurozone ranch, it looks as if ECB President Mario "Whatever It Takes" Draghi suffered another shot across his leadership bow. According to the Financial Times, Eurozone inflation is getting lower than a fat duck's belly.

A closely watched gauge of inflation rates expected by financial markets has fallen to the lowest on record, dealing another blow to Mario Draghi, European Central Bank President.

The rate their talking about is that expected over five years starting in five years' time fell, per the Times, quoting Barclays data based on swap rates, to 1.88 percent. The euro swaps market came about as recently as 10 years ago and the above rate is below the previous low close in 2010.

So the data, to begin with, is fairly short. But we'll let that slip for now. And these people, mostly university-trained economists, can't predict next week let alone something as ridiculous as "five years starting in five years time." At the very least this is good Jimmy Kimmel Live material.

Draghi may have brought this problem on himself. Earlier this year at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic bigwig confab, he mentioned the "five year-five year" inflation gauge. The leech-infested MSM glommed onto the term and now off we go.

There are several caveats here, but first another quote from the article. 

By keeping inflation expectations in line with their target central bankers aim to affect pricing behaviour and keep actual inflation rates under control.

Now read that sentence three times and then ask yourself if you smell anything that starts with an "m" and ends with an "n" as in manipulation?

Monetary policy is the purest of pure manipulation. So here are two questions we'll leave you with.

1. Why should self-respecting investors believe anything that MSM parrots?

2. Why would any self-respecting investor believe that gold and energy markets right now are not being manipulated?

You'll have to answer those questions for yourself and come la cara to la cara with something most humans loathe, making decisions.
t. man hatter

AROUND THE WEB

1. (Reuters) - As oil production swells, demand falters and prices slide, the global oil market appears on the verge of a pivotal shift from an era of scarcity to one of abundance.

Oil prices have fallen as much as 20 percent since June, despite a host of rising supply risks, leading more investors and traders to consider whether 2015 is the year in which the U.S. shale oil boom finally tips the world into surplus.http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/07/us-oil-markets-inflection-analysis-idUSKCN0HW09L20141007

2. Waning tension in Ukraine and bargain prices are helping make Russian stocks a favorite among emerging-market investors.

Asset managers added $154 million to U.S.-based exchange-traded funds focused on Russian equities last week, the biggest inflow among developing-nation ETFs, even as the benchmark index slumped to a two-month low, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Money is coming into Russia at the same time as traders pulled $1.2 billion from ETFs that invest across emerging markets in the five days ended Oct. 3.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-07/etf-bulls-fuel-biggest-inflow-in-emerging-markets.html

3. Ebola, Marburg, Enterovirus and Chikungunya - these diseases were not even on the radar of most people coming into 2014, but now each one of them is making headline news.  So why is this happening?  

Why are so many deadly diseases breaking out all over the world right now?  Is there some kind of a connection, or is the fact that so many horrible diseases are arising all at once just a giant coincidence?  And this could be just the beginning.  For example, there are now more than a million cases of Chikungunya in Central and South America, and authorities are projecting that there will be millions more in 2015.  The number of Ebola cases continues to grow at an exponential rate, and now an even deadlier virus (Marburg) has broken out in Uganda.  We have gone decades without experiencing a major worldwide pandemic, and many people believed that it could never happen in our day and time.  But now we could potentially see several absolutely devastating diseases all racing across the planet at the same time.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/there-will-be-pestilences-why-are-so-many-deadly-diseases-breaking-out-all-over-the-globe-right-now 

4. The US stock market had rocky periods during the third quarter of 2014. There were concerns about rising geopolitical risk that impacted market sentiment. Those concerns triggered some abrupt, albeit minor, corrections. Volatility of the major averages within the quarter was restrained to single-digit declines. These masked some of the market shifts. On September 9, Bloomberg reported as follows:

Beneath the U.S. stock market's record-setting gains, trouble is stirring. About 47 percent of stocks in the Nasdaq Composite (CCMP) Index are down at least 20 percent from their peak in the last 12 months while more than 40 percent have fallen that much in the Russell 2000 Index and the Bloomberg IPO Index. That contrasts with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX), which has closed at new highs 33 times in 2014 and where less than 6 percent of companies are in bear markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The key elements of geopolitical risk are the evolution of ISIL and its activities in Syria, Iraq, and the broader region known as the Levant. In addition, there is continuing turmoil in Nigeria, a primary oil source. A spreading Ebola epidemic adds to risk. There are also of course problems involving Russia and Ukraine and the responses of the US and European Union to that crisis. In addition, there are tensions in the South China Sea that do not always appear on the news media’s radar screen in the US. Developments there are gradually worsening. 
http://online.barrons.com/news/articles

5.  Hewlett-Packard confirmed Monday that the company will split into two separate businesses. The breakup that will lead to massive layoffs.

 http://www.businessinsider.com/10-most-important-things-in-the-world-right-now-october-7-2014-2014

6. Here's a tale-tell chart from the site below with story about the wealth of Congress. And they just don't get it.

 

It has long been a given that Congress is a playground for the wealthy, with many members like Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) and Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WVA) millionaires many times over.
The House -- the so-called “people’s chamber,” created by the Founders to be closer than the Senate  to average Americans – is much wealthier than the rest of the country and far wealthier than past Congresses. An analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics shows freshmen House members in the 112^th Congress boasted a median net worth of $807,013, compared with a median income of just $44,900 for the public at large last year. In fairness, that number includes homes and cars, and the public at large includes 15 year olds and older.
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2014/10/06/Why-Americans-Think-Congress-Just-Doesn-t-Get-It#sthash.E0hxj8GO.dpuf

t’s not just the drought in parts of the U.S. and in other countries that’s driving food prices. A number of diseases and rare bacteria are also affecting how much you ultimately pay for your groceries.
Coffee plantations, for example, are experiencing a double whammy: They’re being hit by a fungus as well as by a beetle that’s attacking the beans. Even Ebola is having a damaging effect on cocoa imports from Africa by holding up shipments.
SLIDESHOW: 9 Reasons You’re Paying More for Groceries
Food prices have been on the rise for most of the year and it’s unlikely they’ll drop anytime soon.
The Agriculture Department expects meat prices to rise 6.5 percent in 2014, up from a 5.5 percent forecast earlier this year and well ahead of the 20-year average increase of 2.9 percent.
The trend is similar when it comes to milk and other dairy products, as well as vegetables, fruits and nuts.
On the positive side, corn and wheat crops have been good this year as the Department of Agriculture reported larger-than-expected stockpiles of the grain, prompting prices to fall.
One other piece of good news for consumers—with gas prices dropping below $2 in some areas, a trip to the grocery store costs a lot less.
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2014/10/06/9-Reasons-You-re-Paying-More-Groceries#sthash.r7vAs2lx.dpuf

Food prices have been on the rise for most of the year and it’s unlikely they’ll drop anytime soon.
The Agriculture Department expects meat prices to rise 6.5 percent in 2014, up from a 5.5 percent forecast earlier this year and well ahead of the 20-year average increase of 2.9 percent.
The trend is similar when it comes to milk and other dairy products, as well as vegetables, fruits and nuts.
On the positive side, corn and wheat crops have been good this year as the Department of Agriculture reported larger-than-expected stockpiles of the grain, prompting prices to fall.
One other piece of good news for consumers—with gas prices dropping below $2 in some areas, a trip to the grocery store costs a lot less.
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2014/10/06/9-Reasons-You-re-Paying-More-Groceries#sthash.r7vAs2lx.dpuf

Food prices have been on the rise for most of the year and it’s unlikely they’ll drop anytime soon.
The Agriculture Department expects meat prices to rise 6.5 percent in 2014, up from a 5.5 percent forecast earlier this year and well ahead of the 20-year average increase of 2.9 percent.
The trend is similar when it comes to milk and other dairy products, as well as vegetables, fruits and nuts.
On the positive side, corn and wheat crops have been good this year as the Department of Agriculture reported larger-than-expected stockpiles of the grain, prompting prices to fall.
One other piece of good news for consumers—with gas prices dropping below $2 in some areas, a trip to the grocery store costs a lot less.
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2014/10/06/9-Reasons-You-re-Paying-More-Groceries#sthash.r7vAs2lx.dpuf

Food prices have been on the rise for most of the year and it’s unlikely they’ll drop anytime soon.
The Agriculture Department expects meat prices to rise 6.5 percent in 2014, up from a 5.5 percent forecast earlier this year and well ahead of the 20-year average increase of 2.9 percent.
The trend is similar when it comes to milk and other dairy products, as well as vegetables, fruits and nuts.
On the positive side, corn and wheat crops have been good this year as the Department of Agriculture reported larger-than-expected stockpiles of the grain, prompting prices to fall.
One other piece of good news for consumers—with gas prices dropping below $2 in some areas, a trip to the grocery store costs a lot less.
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2014/10/06/9-Reasons-You-re-Paying-More-Groceries#sthash.r7vAs2lx.dpuf

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2014/10/06/Why-Americans-Think-Congress-Just-Doesn-t-Get-It

AMERICAN BUSINESS LEADERS

The question is what do American business leaders know about the U.S. economy and when did they know it?

According to a story on Yahoo Finance earlier today, In a new study out from Deloitte Financial Advisory Services, 87% of executives expect the U.S. economy to grow next year. Nearly one-half of all executives surveyed feel the economy will experience “slow growth” in 2015.

The numbers are not as good, however, as one might think. Concerns about growth and Fed policy persist.

The U.S. economy grew at the fastest rate in eight years in the second quarter of 2014 and growth numbers for the third quarter will be out in a few weeks. But the big question for investors and business leaders alike remains: when will the Federal Reserve begin raising interest rates?

Friday's employment report from the Labor Department may make that answer a little more clear. A surprising 248,000 jobs were created in the month September following a 180,000 increase in August. The unemployment rate is now at a six-year low of 5.9 percent.

Many economists think that these numbers support the assumption the Fed will raise rates in June. According to the Deloitte study, 21% of executives think the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy too soon but 37% believe the central bank will tighten it too late. Williams says those who think the Fed won’t act soon enough are, "saying they are concerned about inflation and interest rates have been so low for so long. And perhaps there are asset bubbles associated with that as well.”

Business leaders feel the biggest threat to the economy right now is the Middle East with 35% saying that was their top concern. China was the second biggest concern with 22% feeling it was the top threat. "People are concerned fundamentally about what can mess things up. And they don’t see very much domestically that can mess things up," says Williams. "I think most people’s concerns about the big mess up is something that is going to happen outside United States."
t. man hatter

GOLD'S CURRENT LACK OF LUSTER

Gold has been so beaten down by the forces of fiat currencies if it were a virus MSM would have a fancy name for it and the CDC would be huffing and puffing about isolation and quarantining everyone.

Here's a couple of interesting charts on the subject of gold and it's value.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-06/one-chart-shows-exactly-how-undervalued-gold-right-now

INTERESTING CHART

As readers here know we follow energy and, contrary to current wisdom, we like it along with all the negative sentiment that's ongoing in the media today.

Here from Business Insider is an interesting chart. One could surmise if geopolitical interruptions are at three-year highs today, they could obviously drop. Yes, they could. But it's highly improbable that they will go away.

Besides that there are other forces at work that favor higher energy prices down the road. 

That's our view. We're not saying it's got to be yours.

http://www.businessinsider.com/geopolitics-oil-supply-disruptions-2014-10?

KEEPING IT LOCAL

France's Finance Minister Michel Sapin and his fellow bellyachers like Matteo Renzi are Band-aid lineage. That's all they know. Nothing ever gets fixed, just covered over. The same goes for the Martin Wolfs of the editorial page coterie.

Wolf, in his his recent economic editorial abortion, "An unconventional tool," a formal apologia for more QE, writes this pathetic sentence: " One has to hope that emerging economies are now properly prepared for the ending of QE."

They sure are, just like the developed ones with all their brain trusts were properly prepared for the economic explosion that ripped through the global world just over five years ago. The angst among European politicians, bureaucrats and columnists about meeting the EU budget deficit limits is palpable.

 In Wolfgang Munchau's FinancialTimes article today, "If Europe insists on sticking to rules recovery will be a distant dream," speaking about European Commission policy, writes: "And while they are at it, they should also suspend the fiscal compact. There is no way that Italy or France will meet its stringent fiscal targets in the foreseeable future."

Foreseeable future as used here is a euphemism for one word--never. The truth is France and Italy, good times or otherwise. never intended to meet those requirements. That's why the good people of  Europe rather than bureaucrats, politicians and verbose columnists would be better served trusting known liars and river boat gamblers.

Appropriately, also in today's Times, John Plender reviews a book by Geoffry Hosking called Trust.

Social trust, says Hosking, is mediated through symbolic systems such as religion and money, together with the institutions associated with them, forming what he calls the "deep grammar of society." He argues, convincingly, that there is a tendency to give too much attention to power and the law relative to trust.

The workings of trust are nonetheless complex. Religion, for example, can provide people with a sense of identity, emotional solace and community. Yet religions also create boundaries, across which distrust is projected against outsiders--witness the virulent history of Christians and Jews, Christians and Muslims, Catholics and Protestants.

In the complex modern world what increases trust in one group can intensify distrust in another.  Moreover, the transition from trust to distrust can be rapid. The EU was the most successful attempt after the second world war to extend the radius of trust from the nation state to the international level. Yet the eurozone sovereign debt crisis posed an awkward test for supranational trust, demonstrating how citizens tend to rediscover their primary trust in the nation state in crisis.

That's as local as it gets, folks, in case you don't recognize it. Buried in all the arguments for globalization is the most powerful for keeping it local.

THE GROSS SAGA

The Gross saga continues.

 "It is fair to ask how long 70-year old Gross will stay at it," one newspaper today printed, clearly an age question and not on the face of it really all that appropriate despite what some might say.

Any longtime readers of the respectable business journal Barron's know that publication over the years has written numerous articles about successful investors much older than Gross still running money, either their own or others or both.

People are living longer today and they are staying functional longer. If that's not true than MSM needs to short circuit much of its popular, personal information sections. They're just hypocritical tripe otherwise.

There are exceptions to every rule, i before e except after c. From what we read and MSM loves to publish in the business news is many studies showing that employers welcome older workers because of their reliability and their work ethic. It's also been written in many of these studies that the older crowd happen to know a thing or two.

As we previously noted in our "We Like The Odds" post, this guy deserves a shot if for no other reason than his past performance.  America is a country that prides itself on comeback stories. Before you toss this guy to the investment scrapheap of history, ask yourself this question:

"How many of you have not at one time or another temporarily lost or misplaced your mojo?"

Now to meet fair disclosure, we never had any money invested with Pimco while Gross ran the big show and we have yet to put any with him now, though we are considering it not only for our own but our client accounts.

ALL THINGS LOCAL

 

Just two weeks ago this illustrious group of policy wonks met.

Not much came out of that meeting except the usual round of MSM reported economic hand wringing. The last meeting was in Australia. This one is here, in Washington, otherwise known as Brussels West.

As noted in the link below, the U.S. will push for the ECB to do more to bolt the EU from its current economic morass. Some will claim ECB President Mario Draghi has already tossed everything including the EU kitchen sink at the problem without any meaningful response.

The Germans will come under fire for their lockstep allegiance to what no politician or bureaucrat worthy of the moniker ever wants, economic and structural reform.

Naysayers and Keynesian government stimulus huggers will call for what they feel is the only real global economic life preserver, QE American style.

Here's a quote from Jens Weidmann earlier today that sort of summarizes the situation.

Berlin (AFP) - Germany's central bank chief Jens Weidmann voiced concern about the European Central Bank's latest asset purchase plan to stimulate the eurozone's moribund economy, in an interview published Sunday.

ECB president Mario Draghi on Thursday announced purchases starting later this year of covered bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS) to inject cash into the ailing economy of the currency bloc.

Bundesbank president Weidmann told Focus news weekly that if the ECB buys loans of "weaker quality" then "credit risks assumed by private banks would then be passed on to the central bank and thus the taxpayer without adequate compensation".

ABS are bundles of individual loans such as mortgages, auto credit and credit-card debt which are sold on to investors, allowing banks to share the risk of default and freeing up funds to offer more credit.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/german-central-bank-chief-criticises-ecb-asset-purchase-143447134.html

In truth only three things will come out of this grand collection of policy wonks: The meeting will come, the meeting will go and little else. And that's putting it kindly.

Hong Kong is about local. And so too was Scotland and other so-called disturbances. The move toward localization is a shot across the interventionist, centralist bow of Berlin, Brussels, Washington and, yes,10 Downing Street.

Once the idea sinks in and people realize that the only forte bureaucrats and politicians possess is making promises, the push for all things local will gather even more steam.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/austerity-vs-growth-version-3-0-g20-imf

UPCOMING WEEK

It's a fairly light agenda next week. There is some Fed speak with the hawks and doves trading punches and a few big firms are reporting earnings like Pepsi,Yum and Monsanto.

Monday, October 6

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

No major reports
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.4b-$1.7b notes in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $24b 3-month bills and $24b 6-month bills

Fedspeak:

8:30pm George (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in New Mexico

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

06:00 EUR German Factory Orders
08:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI

Earnings

No major reports

Tuesday, October 7

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) - expected 4700, prior 4673
11:00 Fed to purchase $250m-$350m TIPS in 5 to 30-year range
3:00 Consumer Credit - exp $20B, prior $26B
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $27b 3-year notes

Fedspeak

2:30pm Kocherlakota (dove, voter) speaks in South Dakota
3:00pm Dudley (dove, voter) speaks in New York

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision
05:00 JPY Leading Index
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production
07:15 CHF CPI
08:30 GBP Industrial & Manufacturing Production
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (Sep)

Earnings

Before:
Yum! Brands (YUM)

Wednesday, October 8

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Apps
2:00 FOMC Minutes
1:00 Treasury selling $21b in 10-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:45 CNY HSBC China Services PMI
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate

Earnings


Before:
Costco (COST)
Monstanto (MON)

After:
Alcoa (AA)

Thursday, October 9

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, expected 294k, prior 287k
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2440K, prior 2429k
10:00 Wholesale Inventories (Aug) - exp 0.3%, prior 0.1%
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 30-year bonds

Fedspeak

9:45am Bullard (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in St. Louis
11:00am Draghi (ECB head) and Fischer (dove, vice chair) speak in Washington
1:10pm Tarullo (moderate, board) speaks in Washington
1:15pm Lacker (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in North Carolina
1:30pm Fischer speaks in Washington
3:40pm Williams (dove, nonvoter) speaks in Las Vegas

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Stocks/Bonds
00:30 AUD Employment Data
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision

Earnings

Before:
Pepsi (PEP)
Family Dollar (FDO)

Friday, October 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Import Price Index YoY (Sep) - expected -1.3%, prior -0.4%
08:30 Import Price Index MoM - exp -0.7%, prior -0.9%

Fedspeak

9:00am Plosser (hawk, voter) speaks in New York
1:00pm George (hawk, nonvoter) speaks Nebraska
3:00pm Lacker (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in Chicago

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY New Yuan Loans
00:30 AUD Home Loans
08:30 GBP Trade Balance
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate

Earnings

No major reports
Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

GROWING DISENCHANTMENT

We've written before about Hong Kong before all the recent discord broke out, the rise of populism in Europe and the disgruntlement among many Americans who favor their states succeeding from the good ole U.S. 

The upcoming election in the U.S. notwithstanding, who carries the Senate will not change anything. 

The recent trend of what MSM is calling "trackers," people on the left and right who carry cameras with them and attend events where their opponents are appearing to film and record every word is taking a page from community organizations who film police during disturbances.

In other words, trackers are a political offshoot of Cop Watchers, while the former are new, the latter have been at it for a while. America Rising is the name of one Republican tracking group, American Bridge, founded by billionaire George Soros, the largest Democrat tracking outfit traces its origin to 2010.

If this sounds a bit childish to you, you probably don't recognize just how divided and decadent this nation has become. In Europe Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi recently sided with France in their objection to the EU's rules governing public finance.

Renzi didn't stop there. He poked fun at German Chancellor Angela Merkle in particular and the German people in general for their lockstep allegiance to fiscal probity, calling for Brussels and Berlin to go lighter on austerity and heavier on compassion.

Meanwhile, Renzi's Rome announced its own forecast, projecting a 0.3 percent contraction in GDP for 2014 followed by a stunning turn around to 0.6 percent next year that should excite the folks.

The Scottish No-vote that barely carried the day, much of it owing to rank scaremongering and the Catalonia situation that Spain is doing its best to block are hardly dead in the water, especially if the ECB can't pull the EU out of its economic dregs sooner rather than later.

The point is simple: The longer things stay this way, the more disenchantment will grow. We already have a Misery Index. Why not a Disenchantment Index?

Here's an interesting read that touches on some of these issues.

http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/10/four-recent-and-interesting-posts.html