Yellen Speaks

Yellen spoke.

The market listened and interpreted. Result: stocks, bonds, gold and oil are up as investors apparently focused on a particular point she made: "future policy makers may wish to explore the possibility of purchasing a broader range of assets."

 

For direction starved investors this means the U.S. dollar is low man out as the dollar weakened. A weaker dollar buoys bonds driving yields most likely lower in an already yield-famished world and intensifying the hunt for higher dividend paying equities. Emerging markets beware. Gold initially fell before turning around, up 1.5%, once traders fully digested Yellen's remarks. Recall a few days ago someone dumped a chunk of gold on the market sinking the price several dollars an ounce.

What was that all about, just taking profits and seeking better entry point? Expecting a stronger dollar and higher interest rates or was it a politically motivated trade to keep the fiat wheel of fortune turning through early November?

Though most agree it was a more hawkish speech than usual, Yellen, per her style, parsed her words enough to leave room for her usual splash of ambiguity. The usual excuse for lack of clarity is fear of spooking the market. After seven long years of spooking markets, this is a gross understatement.

On the contrary, it may turned into the old investors hear what they want to hear scenario. But the truth is the Fed has less and less wiggle room and that ups the ante that whatever they do will be a mistake. Once again, however, you read, you interpret and you decide.

The essence of her talk settled on four points:

1. Argument for rate hikes stronger in recent months
2. Gradual increases in rates appropriate
3. No longer focusing on inflation and nominal GDP targets
4. Economy approaching Fed's goals on employment and stale prices

Many of the points are still debatable. Much of the data suggests a recession is already here.

Can anyone spell of smell the term desperate. Here is a blurb from mishtalk.com.

Here are the last four quarters of GDP.

• 3rd Quarter 2015: 2.0%
• 4th Quarter 2015: 0.9%
• 1st Quarter 2016: 0.8%
• 2nd Quarter 2016: 1.1%

It’s highly unlikely the Fed believes 1% is the new normal for robust growth. So why is it so desperate to hike rates?

No Confidence
Despite wanting the hike, a Yellen slide from the Jackson Hole symposium shows the Fed has little confidence that it will hike.



For details please see Yellen Discusses “Tools”: She’s 70% Confident That Rates will Be between 0 and 4.5% in 2018.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Rate hike odds are dropping...

 Chart from: zerohedge.com

MSM PC

Talk about MSM bias. Here's just one more example of what happens to those who sincerely and legitimately question the status quo.

If you'er a voter and you care in the slightest about fairness and you don't get it, these people will stop at nothing to get what they want. They are beyond ruthless. Though there is more than just circumstantial evidence that the woman has serious medical problems that possibly could disqualify her for the White House, you shall not question Hillary Clinton's medical history and condition, our handpicked candidate.

One week ago, board-certified medicine specialist, TV personality and CNN employee Dr. Drew Pinsky broke the mold of conformity, when he said that he is "gravely concerned" about presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s health, pointing out that treatment she is receiving could be the result of her bizarre behaviors. 
Appearing on KABC’s McIntyre in the Morning, Pinsky said he and his colleague Dr. Robert Huizenga became “gravely concerned….not just about her health but her health care,” after analyzing what medical records on Hillary had been released. Pinsky pointed out that after Clinton fainted and fell in late 2012, she suffered from a “transverse sinus thrombosis,” an “exceedingly rare clot” that “virtually guarantees somebody has something wrong with their coagulation system.” “What’s wrong with her coagulation system, has that been evaluated?” asked Dr. Drew.

Pinsky described the situation as “bizarre,” and said that Hillary’s medical condition was “dangerous” and “concerning”. Dr. Drew also went on to add that it was a sign of “brain damage” when Hillary had to wear prism glasses after her fall.

 zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-25/cnn-cancels-dr-drews-show-one-week-after-he-voiced-grave-concern-hillarys-health

They're not going to steal this election. Stealing is at least two classes above these folks.These are dictatorial megalomaniacs. And their intention is to run you and your country. How's that make you feel when you tuck in to sleep at night?

Overnight

Asian shares opened down Friday, taking a cue from U.S. stocks that traded lower for the second consecutive day Thursday in what was the third lightest day of the year in volume and the upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Few speeches have been more anticipated by investors, especially in Asia, than this one. The WSJ reorts: The Federal Reserve’s annual economic policy symposium is a venue for the biggest meeting of central bankers world-wide. And their words invariably move Asian markets—at a time in the year when little else is usually happening. wsj.com/articles/how-the-fed-affects-asia

Most other local markets opened flat following a flat week in general asrisk averse  became the mood of late again in the see-saw between risk on and risk off trading.The Nikkei was down 0.84%, the Australian ASX 200 dropped 0.2% and the Kospi faded 0.58%. For the Nikkei, a government report just before the market opened showing a July fall in consumer prices sent ripples of concern through investors worrying abut the government's stimulus policy and its effectiveness. Chinese shares were higher with the Shanghai Composite index up 0.4%.

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar pushed lower even after central banker comments earlier suggested higher interest rates were nearly firmly on the table. The dollar index slipped 0.1% against its basket of six currencies at 94.654, lowering gain for the  week to just 0.3%. The euro continue to tread water at $1.12910 EUR=, on track to dip about 0.3 percent on the week with the Australian dollar edging up slightly0.2% to $0.7630.

Oil prices in the U.S. moved  higher to $47.35 a barrel, after rising 1.0% Thursday and news of the U.S.-Iran tensions in the Gulf and concerns abut Yell"s speech sending the dollar lower if it doesn't sooth investor concerns.Gold was trading at $1323.60, up $2.00.

Removing The Veil

Well, tomorrow is the day Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers her much awaited speech. Given all the attention it's getting it would be interesting to know how many times she's gone over or revised it. We will probably never know. Parsing words is rumored one of the primary prerequisites to getting the head job.

What we do know is the rising chorus of those who've been saying the Fed's incompetence and maybe even ego and arrogance caused this mess is growing. Further proof of that surfaced in the past few days. The feelings expressed in the opening paragraph of the below article are hardly new to us. We have been writing about what we call The Fed Problem a long time. As this article concluded the only thing the Fed knows is more of the same. Doubling down and ZIRP are cuts from the same bolt of cloth. One could call it, Double Your Pleasure and Double The Pain.

.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-25/hilsenrath-slams-fed-years-fed-missteps-fueled-disillusion-help-explain-us-populism.

For years we have argued that the main reasons for rising social anger, populist sentiment, and general disillusion with the US economy boils down to one thing: the Federal Reserve, which as we have argued since 2009, has approached the crisis aftermath in a wrong way, generated unprecedented wealth inequality through its monetary policy favoring a tiny fraction of the population - those invested in risk assets - and instead of reflating another debt bubble, should have allowed the system to undergo a debt purge and start afresh.

For this we have been branded perpetual conspiracy theorists and permabears.

Moments ago, none other than the WSJ's Fed "whisperer", Jon Hilsenrath admitted these allegations have been correct in an article titled "Years of Fed Missteps Fueled Disillusion With the Economy and Washington", and which as the WSJ notes "helps explain one of the US's most unpredictable, populist political years."

In other words, it is the Fed's policies that have led to the current failed economic regime (as noted again yesterday by Citi's Matt King and today by former Fed governor Kevin Warsh), and which are responsible for the rise of such candidates as Donald Trump. Which, incidentally, is also something we have predicted over the years would happen. As such we are delighted that one of the most popular establishment Fed watchers now agrees with our assessment.
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You have to remember it's not easy for people to admit their mistakes and the longer one goes without admitting them the tougher it gets. Taking on a big, indifferent, uncoordinated government bureaucratic monster like the Fed won't get you a lot of RSVP A-list offers from the entrenched elitist crowd.

Overnight

Ahead of Friday's Yellen talk the appetite for risk has seemed to dry up as the Nikkei soften slightly, 0.2%, to trade at 16,562.49 by mid-morning after Wall Street showed some weakness Wednesday. For the Nikkei this past week it's been about narrowness or range bound as the index loitered between 16,452.01 and 16,714.61 awaiting Yellen's remarks.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was trading flat, while the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.1% lower and the South Korean Kospi added 0.1%. The missing theme here is direction as investors shy away from any real risk taking. The WSJ reported: Declines overnight in commodities prices weighed on the major commodities-producing countries, such as Australia. The S&P/ASX 200 was last down 0.1%, while in Singapore, the Straits Times Index added 0.1%. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was unchanged at $49.04 a barrel.

The Japanese yen was relatively flat against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, but analysts expect that the dollar could strengthen on Ms. Yellen’s upcoming comments. 

In China liquidity was the question as the Peoples Bank of China added early Thursday morning some when it more money into the financial system some analysts were speculating to calm investor nerves. According to reports, the bank replaced seven-day reverse purchase agreements with 14-day one to the tune of 80 billion yuan in its daily money market system. The yen remained flat against the dollar but many think that could change depending on Yellen's message.

You Do The Math

Here's what we're talking about with big pharma and their foot soldiers.

A one-year-old boy was prescribed antidepressants by Britain’s National Health Service (NHS), it has emerged.

NHS Tayside in Dundee, Scotland, prescribed the medication to the child in 2014, according to figures obtained by the Dundee Evening Telegraph.

The Trust prescribed anti-depressants to 450 children over a five-month period between January and May this year.

Figures reveal the most common age group to be given antidepressants were children aged between 14 and 17 and that girls are more likely to be prescribed the drug than boys.

Although very young children are sometimes prescribed antidepressants for problems including bed-wetting and chronic pain, NHS guidelines state that under 18s should not be given the drug.

“Antidepressants are a type of medication used to treat clinical depression, or prevent it from recurring. However, they can also be used to treat a wide range of medical conditions, such as chronic pain and anxiety disorders,” a spokesperson for NHS Tayside said.

“If appropriate for individual patients, antidepressants are prescribed and often used in combination with therapy to treat more severe depression, or other mental health conditions caused by emotional distress.

There's not a dollar big pharma doesn't covet. Couple the above with this story.

The pharmaceutical company that distributes the EpiPen is also a Clinton Foundation donor.

Hillary Clinton criticized the company, Mylan, on Wednesday, calling its price hikes of the life-saving medical device “outrageous.”

“It’s just the latest troubling example of a company taking advantage of its consumers,” said Clinton.

But those remarks highlight Clinton’s radio silence on the price of the EpiPen, which has grown steadily since 2007, when Mylan acquired rights to sell the 50-year-old drug.

EpiPen injections, which help stop potentially fatal allergic reactions, cost $57 in 2007. They now run $609. According to CNBC, the price of EpiPens has increased at a steady rate in those nine years.

As of May 2011, the price was $165. That rose to $350 in 2014 and $461 last year. You cm due the math on these numbers. Inflation is like everything else; it depends on who is paying it.

Read more: dailycaller.com/2016/08/24/company-gouging-price-of-epipens-is-a-clinton-foundation-donor-and-partner

Big And Powerful

Big is powerful and powerful is often dangerous.

Yes, we're blogging on Google. Google is big, powerful and if this article from The Guardian has any validity and we think it might, is becoming dangerous. Once a penthouse occupant, the rights of privacy in this nations have gone in a relatively short time to the outhouse.

.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jun/23/google-eavesdropping-tool-installed-computers-without-permission.

Privacy advocates claim always-listening component was involuntarily activated within Chromium, potentially exposing private conversations

Privacy campaigners and open source developers are up in arms over the secret installing of Google software which is capable of listening in on conversations held in front of a computer.

First spotted by open source developers, the Chromium browser – the open source basis for Google’s Chrome – began remotely installing audio-snooping code that was capable of listening to users.

It was designed to support Chrome’s new “OK, Google” hotword detection – which makes the computer respond when you talk to it – but was installed, and, some users have claimed, it is activated on computers without their permission.

“Without consent, Google’s code had downloaded a black box of code that – according to itself – had turned on the microphone and was actively listening to your room,” said Rick Falkvinge, the Pirate party founder, in a blog post. “Which means that your computer had been stealth configured to send what was being said in your room to somebody else, to a private company in another country, without your consent or knowledge, an audio transmission triggered by … an unknown and unverifiable set of conditions.”

Google to exclude 'revenge porn' from internet searches

 

Read more

The feature is installed by default as part of Google’s Chrome browser. But open source advocates are up in arms about it also being installed with the open source variant Chromium, because the listening code is considered to be “black box”, not part of the open source audit process.

“We don’t know and can’t know what this black box does,” said Falkvinge. 

Reports floated about a while back that Google aided Clinton with deleting her State Department e-mails. We can't confirm that and we're noth charging it, but with all hacking going go and other  reported instances what many claim are privacy invasions, it hardly fits into the science fiction mode today. Americans and, in part thanks to the EU, people around the globe are being invaded not by outer space aliens but the food, thought and behavior police.

Google responded to complaints via its developer boards. It said: “While we do download the hotword module on startup, we do not activate it unless you opt in to hotwording.”

However, reports from developers indicate otherwise.

After having identified Chromium as the culprit, developer Ofer Zelig said in a blog post: “While I was working I thought ‘I’m noticing that an LED goes on and off, on the corner of my eyesight [webcam]’. And after a few times when it just seemed weird, I sat to watch for it and saw it happening. Every few seconds or so.”

Google also blamed the Linux distribution Debian for downloading the non-open source component with Chromium automatically, rather than Google Chrome.

“The key here is that Chromium is not a Google product. We do not directly distribute it, or make any guarantees with respect to compliance with various open source policies,” Google developer mgiuca said.

Falkvinge countered Google’s explanations saying: “The default install will still wiretap your room without your consent, unless you opt out, and more importantly, know that you need to opt out, which is nowhere a reasonable requirement.” He says a hardware switch to disable the microphone and camera built into most computers is needed.

Maybe Chrome is the search engine you want to use after all?

Our View

The CDC is like MSM. If it bleeds it leads.

In plain English, the Center for Disease Control needs crises to justify its huge bureaucratic turf. Here turf spells existence and taxpayer dough.

Acetycholinesterase, also known as ACHE, is a central nervous system enzyme, the primary cholinesterase in the body. It catalyzes the breakdown of acteylcholine and other choline esters that function as neurotransmitters. So where do we find this stuff, a most likely place, neuromuscular junctions and chemical synapses sensitive to choline that are responsible for transmission.

Transmission is the key word here. Think hacking or the Cold War term jamming. What? Signals or transmissions. So ACHE is, like Arnold, a terminator. It blocks synaptic transmissions. Bug, bird or man, without these transmissions you have a problem. Last we looked bird and man were mammals. And then you bring in another term from the Cold War era, 1953, the discovery of what's known as DEET, a mosquito and insect repellent.

Are you getting the picture yet. So now we fast forward to a French 2009 study: "We've found that DEET is not simply a behavior-modifying chemical but also inhibits the activity of a key central nervous system enzyme, acetycholinesterase, in both insects and mammals." Here's more. It is the primary target used by organophosphorous substances in nerve agents and pesticides.

So how do we know know this? Well, it's in all the textbooks and it's also on Wikipedia. But a more compelling reason is nearly 30 years of practicing medicine and seeing patients with a variety of exposure to industrial and non-industrial chemicals. It comes with what we all know as the workplace, the economic engine for it all.

The next genie that pops out of the bottle and is most difficult to get back is, how much exposure is dangerous. Though the powers that rule will deny it, the answer is the same as that applies to the stock market and when it will tank, nobody really knows.

So how dangerous is this so-called new Zika virus nearly everyone is getting upset about. Yes, it reportedly disfigures fetuses. Yes, it reportedly causes microcephaly in newborns, but we've yet to see the scientific studies substantiating this. Misconstrue not, we're not playing down the seriousness of these things.

DEET is much like a cocktail, with more than one ingredient in that serving. If bacteria can became super bugs via mutations, why not mosquitoes? So the cocktail gets more complex. Recently a physician went of one of the major news networks and suggested that DEET should be the "new perfume for Miami," an area with an apparent Zita outbreak.

But here's what the CDC's own website on the matter says, according to what we've seen and read:

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states on its website that most people who contract Zika do not have any symptoms, and when they do, they are typically mild and include things like joint and muscle pain, headaches and fever.

"People usually don't get sick enough to go to the hospital, and they very rarely die of Zika," the CDC says. "Once a person has been infected with Zika, they are likely to be protected from future infections." 

There are now pictures in the mass media of mass spraying going on in certain areas. Sure we now have had some deaths, not something anyone wanted. All the facts are not in on those yet either. So what you might be seeing here is the usual reaction of big government. To capture or get the few you poison the many.

That's our view. We hope you know yours.

The Road To Serfdom

The term war has many meanings, not all of which have to include hostile or violent.

A boycott is a peaceful war to express your opinion about the services you've been promised but nearly never get from big business. It is also another way--before it is banned, and don't think they won't go there--to let corporations know how you feel about corporations that financially support firms and ideas that threaten your liberty and freedom of movement and expression.

The recent Olympics was clearly a case of this. Sports Illustrated's recent cover featured three exceptional gold metal winner from politically accepted sports. Coca Cola, not by any means alone here, has displayed similar behavior. Yet there were other gold metal winners, exceptionable in what they did in Rio, who are shunned because their sports are not PC. Misconstrue not, these are political decisions.

Big banks and big bankers are a case in point. Responsible as they are today for many of the globe's financial woes, they're just another species of politicians, promising much for your money but delivering little. They do all they can with the technology spurt to get you, the customer, to do their work for them. A few years back the complaint was about jobs getting outsourced to foreign countries. Today it's a form of internal outsourcing of non-paying jobs right to your home.

Think of it as another branch of ZIRP. Free labor. It holds their costs down and buoys their profits and those big bonuses. Like inexpensive Beverly Hills attorneys, big banks and service is an oxymoron. Your purchasing power is what they're after. It's way beyond greed. It's the road to serfdom. And you've been wheedled and ultimately forced there by the magical term convenience. But prices at convenience places are always higher. Check out a paycheck cashing place. Or buying an airlines ticket at the last minute.

Nothing wrong with this if you get the service you're paying for since it's about freedom of choice. But when someone can't get a bank account or a loan, what's left is called a monopoly. And that's what big banking wants, a legalized monopoly. It's their way or else.

There's an old saying if you snooze you lose. That might explain why big pharma and their cohorts in medicine have half the nation between the ages 10 and 45 on anti-depressants and anti-angst pills.
Snooze if you must while you still have the freedom to check that box. But like the Tooth Fairy, free lunches don't exist. Serfdom does.

Reverse Asset Bubbles

We have written before many times about the accident waiting to happen in many underfunded state retirement funds. One of the ones we mentioned was Illinois. Victims of poor government stewardship, political spendthrifts and the last several years NIRP and ZIRP courtesy of  feckless central bankers, it's an ugly scene. One of the problems is another lowering their expected return on pension investments. Just wo years ago they lowered their expected return and are now abut to invoke another one.

Here's an excerpt from zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-23/illinois-warns-crippling-tax-hikes-devastating-impact-if-largest-pension-fund-admits.

Defined Benefit Pension Plans are, almost by definition, a ponzi scheme. Current assets are used to pay current claims in full in spite of insufficient funding to pay future liabilities: classic Ponzi.  But unlike wall street and corporate ponzi schemes no one goes to jail here because the establishment is complicit.  Everyone from government officials to union bosses are incentivized to maintain the status quo - public employees get to sleep better at night thinking they have a "retirement plan," public legislators get to be re-elected by union membership while pretending their states are solvent and union bosses get to keep their jobs while hiding the truth from employees.
We even published a note several weeks ago titled "Establishment Tries To Suppress "Dissident Actuaries" Explosive Report On Public Pensions," which pointed out that the American Academy of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries killed a report that would have warned about the implications of lowering long-term expected returns on pension assets.  Apparently the truth was just too scary.
Similarly, Janus' Bill Gross has been warning of the unintended consequences of low interest rates for years, and reiterated his concerns to Bloomberg recently:

Fund managers that have been counting on returns of 7 percent to 8 percent may need to adjust that to around 4 percent, Gross, who runs the $1.5 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said during an Aug. 5 interview on Bloomberg TV. Public pensions, including the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest in the U.S., are reporting gains of less than 1 percent for the fiscal year ended June 30.

Two weeks ago, we decided to take a look at what would happen if all federal, state and local pension plans decided to heed the advice of Mr. Gross. As one might suspect, the results were abysmal.  We conservatively assume that public pensions are currently $2.0 trillion underfunded ($4.5 trillion of assets for $6.5 trillion of liabilities) even though we've seen estimates that suggest $3.5 trillion or more might be more appropriate.  We then adjusted the return on asset assumption down from the 7.5% used by most pensions to the 4.0% suggested by Mr. Gross and found that true public pension underfunding could be closer to $5.5 trillion, or over 2.5x more than current estimates.  Others have suggested that returns should be closer to risk-free rates which would imply an even more draconian $8.4 trillion underfunding.  


This is the kind of thing that should tell you, if it hasn't already, put your faith in politicians and government bureaucrats at your own peril. These are assets bubbles in reverse, nevertheless caused by bankers, and when they unwind will make lots of folks poorer.