The Year Ahead

Gurus come and gurus go. Today, nearly everyone is a guru.

Here's a look at what one popular guru has to say about the the year ahead, Jeffery Gundlach. He always has some interesting thing to say.
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Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, U.S.-centric portfolios should diversify globally.

Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital, a leading provider of fixed-income mutual funds and ETFs. He spoke to investors via a conference call on January 10. Slides from that presentation are available here. This webinar was his annual forecast for the global markets and economies for 2017.

Before we look at his 2017 predictions, let’s review his forecasts from a year ago. His two highest conviction forecasts were that the Fed would not raise rates more than once, despite the Fed’s own predictions, and that Trump would win the presidency. Both predictions were accurate.
But he was also downbeat on emerging markets, and singled out Brazil and Shanghai as likely underperformers. Brazil turned out to be the best-performing emerging market last year, gaining 69.1%, but he was correct about Shanghai, which was the worst performing market, losing 16.5%.
Gundlach said he had a “low conviction” prediction that the yield on the 10-year Treasury would break to the upside. It began 2016 at 2.11% and ended at 2.45%.

He said the probability was that U.S. equities would decline in 2016, yet the markets gained approximately 13%. Gold, he said, would hit $1,400 at some point in 2016. It began the year at approximately $1,100, hit a high of $1,365 during the summer and closed at approximately $1,150.
Let’s look at his forecasts for 2017, including the one which he called “the chart of the webcast.”

Doomed by debt?
The U.S. household debt-servicing ratio is at its lowest level since 1980, according to Gundlach, despite what he called an “explosion” in private-sector debt. That ratio would change adversely if rates rise, he cautioned, although that might be offset by an increase in income.
Public-sector debt is at 75% of GDP, not including the portion of the debt owned by the Fed, he said. Gundlach has warned of fiscal debt problems, as he has done in the past, but pointed out that since 2011 federal debt has “leveled out” as a percentage of GDP. But he warned that Trump’s policies would lead to a “steeper slope upwards” as compared to the congressional budget office (CBO) debt projections, which show a 141% debt-to-GDP ratio by 2046.

Trump may deliver the tax cuts he promised to the rich in return for infrastructure and defense spending, Gundlach said, and that would lead to structural debt problems – it would get us to the 141% level sooner than in 2046, he said. Those spending initiatives will not kick in this year, he noted, and might take as long as two years to get going.

Gundlach offered data showing that the deficit will increase faster than it has in the post-crisis period, although those projections were made prior to Trump’s victory, and that the portion of the deficit allocated to mandatory (entitlement) spending has grown steadily over the last 50 years.

The recession watch
The historical pattern has been that a recession has occurred during the first term of a new president, especially when following a two-term presidency. But Gundlach said that the leading economic indicators (LEIs) are positive, and there has never been a recession without those indicators going negative. CEO confidence is “moving up” and consumer confidence is “exploding,” he said, which further supports his prediction that a recession is not imminent.
“President Trump will lead to a breakout of the ‘forever 2% GDP growth’ we have seen for six to seven years,” Gundlach said. “Animal spirits have been stirred.” He noted that a small-business sentiment report released that day was the most bullish it had been in a long time.


More: advisorperspectives.com/articles/2017/01/11/gundlach-s-forecast-for-2017

Government Tracking Grows

Line forms over here.

This is more government intervention phonied up we're here to catch the criminals and help those who need protection.
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It seems too far-fetched to be true, especially in the “land of the free” where the Constitution supposedly recognizes and enshrines certain “inalienable” human rights like individual choice and privacy, but it’s true nonetheless: In the United States, we have all come one step closer to being microchipped by mandate.

As reported by True Activist, about six years ago NBC Nightly News made a bold prediction: That by 2017, all Americans would be fitted with a radio frequency identifier (RFID) chip so that all of us could be tracked by the government in real time (except for the elites doing the tracking, of course). That prediction doesn’t appear to have come true—and with Hillary Clinton soundly defeated Nov. 8, it doesn’t look like it will happen anytime soon.

But what if it did? What if somehow some of us began to be “chipped,” sold to us as a way to ‘enhance public safety’ (which is always the excuse government uses to take away our rights and freedoms)?

Don’t look now, but it just happened.

The government will decide who is ‘mentally unfit’ and must be tracked

As noted by the Daily Caller, in recent days the U.S. House of Representatives “overwhelmingly” passed a bill that would require the U.S. attorney general to provide grants to local law enforcement agencies so they can create, establish and operate “locative tracking technology programs.”
In other words, the legislation—known as Kevin and Avonte’s Law—makes it “legal” for police to track certain U.S. citizens, despite the fact that their privacy is guaranteed by the Constitution’s Fourth Amendment.

The program, which many have likened to the opening of a Pandora’s Box of wider tracking in the future, gives local police the authority to use technology to locate “individuals with forms of dementia, such as Alzheimer’s disease, or children with developmental disabilities, such as autism, who have wandered from safe environments.”

Advocates of the legislation, including Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas, and Rep. Chris Smith, R-N.J., say the measure can help police intervene to avert tragedies through the use of location technology before the mentally disabled wander into trouble. But opponents, like Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Texas, see it as a way for government to broadly interpret how it uses the technology.
“While this initiative may have noble intentions, ‘small and temporary’ programs in the name of safety and security often evolve into permanent and enlarged bureaucracies that infringe on the American people’s freedoms,” he said. That is exactly what we have here. A safety problem exists for people with Alzheimer’s, autism and other mental health issues, so the fix, we are told, is to have the Department of Justice start a tracking program so we can use some device or method to track these individuals 24/7.”

Later, Gohmert said the bill’s sponsors implore lawmakers and the American people not to worry because it has language saying that any tracking device cannot be invasive and is totally voluntary.

What’s to stop some future authoritarian from widening a tracking program?

But he added that he was confused as to why Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress—the party historically at odds with big government and the massive federal bureaucracy—would be taken in and fooled into approving yet another massive, invasive government program.
He was also astounded that the GOP-controlled Congress would allow the tracking of people with “developmental disabilities”—a term that could have very broad applications—but not approve any tracking of illegal aliens, criminals and other malcontents.

He was also astounded that the GOP-controlled Congress would allow the tracking of people with “developmental disabilities”—a term that could have very broad applications—but not approve any tracking of illegal aliens, criminals and other malcontents.

Therein lies the rub: Who gets to define “mentally incapacitated?” And is that description only limited to persons who have been medically, clinically diagnosed with a “mental” problem?
Because in the recent past, Left-wing activists, politicians and academics have accused alternative media types of being mentally deranged and “propagandists.” Should alternative media journalists be tracked, for the public’s safety?

It’s not that farfetched anymore to think that could happen someday, especially when a “program” establishing ‘official’ tracking of ‘certain’ persons has already been implemented.

newstarget.com/2017-01-09-independent-journalists-will-be-forcible-micro-chipped-by-government-after-being-labeled-with-a-mental-disorder-for-not-believing-propaganda.

 

You Decide

Here's an article that might suggest you might want to vote with your pocketbook when it comes to Best Buy, the owner of Greek Squad, the computer repair business.

There are a couple of ways to do this. Avoiding the stores completely or selling the stock. We're not recommending either, but if the FBI is doing this in the name of protecting us from the bad guys it's another case of we're here not to help you but to  jail you.

We don't buy at Best Buy for the record.
techdirt.com/articles/20170106/10163236419/fbi-is-apparently-paying-geek-squad-members-to-dig-around-computers-evidence-criminal-activity.

The FBI Is Apparently Paying Geek Squad Members To Dig Around In Computers For Evidence Of Criminal Activity

from the maybe-these-are-the-'smart-people'-who-can-fix-Comey's-encryption-&# dept

Law enforcement has a number of informants working for it and the companies that already pay their paychecks, like UPS, for example. It also has a number of government employees working for the TSA, keeping their eyes peeled for "suspicious" amounts of cash it can swoop in and seize.
Unsurprisingly, the FBI also has a number of paid informants. Some of these informants apparently work at Best Buy -- Geek Squad by day, government informants by… well, also by day.

According to court records, Geek Squad technician John "Trey" Westphal, an FBI informant, reported he accidentally located on Rettenmaier's computer an image of "a fully nude, white prepubescent female on her hands and knees on a bed, with a brown choker-type collar around her neck." Westphal notified his boss, Justin Meade, also an FBI informant, who alerted colleague Randall Ratliff, another FBI informant at Best Buy, as well as the FBI. Claiming the image met the definition of child pornography and was tied to a series of illicit pictures known as the "Jenny" shots, agent Tracey Riley seized the hard drive.

Not necessarily a problem, considering companies performing computer/electronic device repair are legally required to report discovered child porn to law enforcement. The difference here is the paycheck. This Geek Squad member had been paid $500 for digging around in customers' computers and reporting his findings to the FBI. That changes the motivation from legal obligation to a chance to earn extra cash by digging around in files not essential to the repair work at hand.
More of a problem is the FBI's tactics. While it possibly could have simply pointed to the legal obligation Best Buy has to report discovered child porn, it proactively destroyed this argument by apparently trying to cover up the origin of its investigation, as well as a couple of warrantless searches.

Setting aside the issue of whether the search of Rettenmaier's computer constituted an illegal search by private individuals acting as government agents, the FBI undertook a series of dishonest measures in hopes of building a case, according to James D. Riddet, Rettenmaier's San Clemente-based defense attorney. Riddet says agents conducted two additional searches of the computer without obtaining necessary warrants, lied to trick a federal magistrate judge into authorizing a search warrant, then tried to cover up their misdeeds by initially hiding records.

The "private search" issue is mentioned briefly in OC Weekly's report, but should be examined more closely. Private searches are acceptable, but the introduction of cash payments, as well as the FBI having an official liaison with Best Buy suggests the searches aren't really "private." Instead, the FBI appears to be using private searches to route around warrant requirements. That's not permissible and even the FBI's belief that going after the "worst of worst" isn't going to be enough to salvage these warrantless searches.
As Andrew Fleischman points out at Fault Lines, the government's spin on the paid "private search" issue -- that it's "wild speculation" the Best Buy employee was acting as a paid informant when he discovered the child porn -- doesn't hold up if the situation is reversed. AUSA Anthony Brown's defensive statement is nothing more than the noise of a double standard being erected.

Flipping the script for a minute, would an AUSA say it was “wild speculation” that a man was a drug dealer when phone records showed he regularly contacted a distributor, he was listed as a drug dealer in a special book of drug dealers, and he had received $500.00 for drugs? Sorry to break it to you, Mr. Brown, but once you start getting paid for something, it’s tough to argue you’re just doing it for the love of the game.

In addition to these problems, the file discovered by the Best Buy tech was in unallocated space… something that points to almost nothing, legally-speaking.

[I]n Rettenmaier's case, the alleged "Jenny" image was found on unallocated "trash" space, meaning it could only be retrieved by "carving" with costly, highly sophisticated forensics tools. In other words, it's arguable a computer's owner wouldn't know of its existence. (For example, malware can secretly implant files.) Worse for the FBI, a federal appellate court unequivocally declared in February 2011 (USA v. Andrew Flyer) that pictures found on unallocated space did not constitute knowing possession because it is impossible to determine when, why or who downloaded them.

This important detail was apparently glossed over in the FBI's warrant application to search Rettenmaier's home and personal devices.

In hopes of overcoming this obstacle, they performed a sleight-of-hand maneuver, according to Riddet. The agents simply didn't alert Judge Marc Goldman that the image in question had been buried in unallocated space and, thus, secured deceitful authorization for a February 2012 raid on Rettenmaier's Laguna Niguel residence.

Courts have shown an often-excessive amount of empathy for the government's "outrageous" behavior when pursuing criminals. The fact that there's child porn involved budges the needle in the government's direction, but the obstacles the FBI has placed in its own way through its deceptive behavior may prevent it from salvaging this case.
The case is already on very shaky ground, with the presiding judge questioning agents' "odd memory losses," noting several discrepancies between the FBI's reports and its testimony, and its "perplexing" opposition to turning over documents the defense has requested.
In any event, it appears the FBI has a vast network of informants -- paid or otherwise -- working for both private companies and the federal government. Considering the FBI is already the beneficiary of legal reporting requirements, this move seems ill-advised. It jeopardizes the legitimacy of the evidence, even before the FBI engages in the sort of self-sabotaging acts it appears to have done here.

Underneath it all is the perplexing and disturbing aversion to adhering to the Fourth Amendment we've seen time and time again from law enforcement agencies, both at local and federal levels. Anything that can be done to avoid seeking a warrant, and anything that creates an obfuscatory paper trail, is deployed to make sure the accused faces an even more uphill battle once they arrive in court. 

Your Choice

Only four states now have Democrat governors, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Delaware and, of course, the big blue C-California.

That's part of the Obama legacy if there were any honest historians not infused with and all tatted up with revisionist genes. It's not a time for celebration. It's time to push harder and harder and keep pushing. There's an edge out there, a cliff and it has a name--the Cliff of Oblivion. As one writer recently noted: "After eight years of the Obama presidency, Democrats hold fewer elective offices than at any time since the 1920s." Skip the hearts and flowers. Someone just needs to play taps.

The left has been ruthless, using their power, their money, their arrogance, their conceit, their name-calling, their PC bullshit, their hate to quiet, to threaten, to paralyze, to punish, to even influence one's work opportunities. That's right, their economic ability to make a living if they fail to agree with zero tolerance. Free speech is only okay as long as the outcomes suit the elites. Fake news sites are code for some things are too true to see the light of print. The once so-called bane of the left, McCarthyism, is being revamped, a communist lurking in every refrigerator of all those red state voters and bloggers.

It's all the fault of fake news! And those damn Russians.

They love to sing the siren's song of promise for your vote but deep inside distrust and loathe your ability to discern the difference between truth and propaganda. So if not the people who's left to guard the precious hen house from the foxes when the elites turn vile, ruthless and corrupt? In a system where votes, agencies and central banks are bought and stamped sacrosanct, the global upheaval is long overdue.

Politicians are long on jabber and short on flesh and bones. Republicans now control 25 state capitals. There's no rule of thumb that says these politicians will do what they should, bring this nation more to the center. Political correctness needs to be killed, dead in its tracks. It's really the only hope humanity has. All the phony concern about climate change if drastically left unchanged will decimate humanity is absurd. If the human race finally destroys itself, it will be because of PC not climate change fallacies. PC is far more noxious than any and all greenhouse gases.You can legislate hate, but you can't legislate love.

That should be just one of the lessons of this one. What went from five trillion of government debt to ten trillion under eight years of a so-called Republican president just went from ten trillion to twenty trillion under eight years of a so-called Democrat. Say hello to that warm spot in your heart for bureaucrats and politicians.

Everyone in the country will pull a winning ticket for the Super lottery before that debt ever gets repaid.  And now we're hearing the funeral pyre for globalization and that dreaded, hateful existence once called sovereignty threatens to return and impoverish any and all. Local control, a possible say so in your life, preposterous. There's still drug money laundering afoot. Let's confiscate all of everyone's cash. That will screw up all those bad folks with evil intentions in flyover land who do all those drugs.

First there occurred darkness then there was light. First there was Wall Street and it political cronies then there was money laundering. It's a tactic as old as governments. Punish the many innocents to capture the few evils. This is about control, nothing more and everything less. You can wake up or slumber your way into their bureaucratic wasteland of freedom-less choice and monotonous economic and spiritual poverty. The choice is yours for now.

Think You Need To Wait?

Think You Need to Wait to Purchase Your Next Home?

Think Again!

By Anthony Wheaton January, 2017

FMRealtyConsulting.com

Whatever happened to the dream of home ownership in America? 

Are houses too expensive, wages and salaries too flat? Is being a “long-term renter” (defined as renting for more than one year) the new normal in today’s housing market? 

Regardless of the answers, one simple truth remains – many renters would prefer be homeowners, but can’t qualify for a mortgage loan. As such, they feel as if they have no other choice than to wait and wonder if or when it’s ever going to happen. That said it’s our opinion that home ownership is much closer than many people realize, once they begin to receive the right kind of information and assistance.

Since the housing market crash of 2008 and the resulting overregulation that followed, the institutional mortgage lending establishment has stifled the dream of home ownership as many Americans once knew it. In short, the pendulum of reform has swung too far in the opposite direction, which has artificially augmented the renting population, as well as the rents. In California, for instance, in both Los Angeles and Orange counties, to name just a few, rent payments on condos and single family homes exceed the cost of a mortgage on those very same properties. 

Traditionally, the point at which rent payments become equivalent to or greater than mortgage payments is when the market “adjusts” (self regulates) and renters make the decision to become homeowners. However, big government regulations, overly stringent credit markets, and a variety of other factors are obstructing the natural order of the free market. Therefore, we have a new problem – a drought in mortgage financing.

According to the Consumer Housing Trends Report 2016, published by the Zillow Group, 56 percent of today’s renters are Millennials (ages 18-34), as many would expect, yet a staggering 28 percent of the renter pool is part of Generation X (ages 35-49), which is a far more troubling statistic. Heck, even the Baby Boomers (ages 50-64) make up a whopping 12 percent of the renting population at large! But, for the sake of this discussion, let us focus our attention on the first two groups, as they make up the vast majority of the renting population.

The reasons for renting are numerous, but essentially fall into one or more of the following four categories:

•

Flexibility (e.g., not being tied down to a mortgage or housing maintenance responsibilities, liberty to move about the country to capitalize on career opportunities, etc.)

•

Convenience (e.g., closer proximity to work than a purchased home, waiting for kids to finish school before settling, etc.)

•

Affordability (debt and income challenges)

•

Credit Challenges (debt load, late payments, collection accounts, and other derogatory items)

The first two categories (Flexibility and Convenience) represent a particular lifestyle choice and are, for the most part, voluntary in nature. On the other hand, the latter two categories (Affordability and Credit Challenges) are a simple matter of financial feasibility – that is, if these individuals were financially fit to purchase a new home (in the eyes of their lender) then they would certainly not choose to rent an apartment.

 In fact, the reality is that many long-term renters actually prefer to be homeowners, but simply cannot qualify for a mortgage loan.Therefore, after being declined for a loan, and having no alternative solutions, many would-be home buyers resign to continue throwing away their hard earned money on outrageously high rent, instead of building equity. I’ve personally known a number of these people, both past and present clients, and the feelings they all share are the same: lack of resolve, frustration, anxiety, and urgency.

It’s no secret that housing prices in southern California are rising. It’s also pretty obvious that interest rates have nowhere else to go but up, as evidenced by the Fed’s recent interest rate hike (0.25% increase) back in December, and plans for future raises this year. And if that’s not bad enough, the fact that wages and salaries are pretty much flat, and the credit markets still very tight, only adds insult to injury. Hence, one might deduce that affordability is at a definite low.

Having said that, if you make good money, have substantial savings for a down payment, but have some credit challenges and were previously declined for a mortgage loan, then I am here to tell you that home ownership is absolutely within reach.

So, how can this be done? First of all, please keep in mind that, as with most endeavors, there are usually a number of different ways that one can achieve the same objective. Home ownership is no different. Below is an example of a recent purchase transaction I helped a client of mine put together, which closed this past December.

Deal Summary:

My client was looking to purchase a luxury condominium in downtown Los Angeles. He is an entrepreneur, earns a very nice living, and has the capacity to pull together a substantial down payment. However, along the way of his entrepreneurial journey (the year 2011, to be exact), he had a failed business venture, which cost him tax and credit problems, among other things. Nevertheless, like many others, he was fed up with watching his rent dollars going away and never returning, so, one day, he contacted a mortgage broker to help him locate a lender who could pre-approve him for financing. Unfortunately, that day never came, so he reached out to me for help.

After a brief consultation, we concluded that a rent-to-own scenario would be the best fit for him. We also recognized that just about all of the mainstream banks, credit unions, and other institutional mortgage lenders simply didn’t have the appetite to finance someone with his particular credit profile. Therefore, I needed to find a smaller, portfolio lender who would – and we did.

Essentially, our client needed approximately six months to remedy a few credit issues and move around monies to secure his down payment. So – the we went to work and locate a beautiful, contemporary loft in the downtown Los Angeles Arts District. We negotiated a six month lease, with the option to purchase the property at any time prior to expiration of the lease. The Option to purchase the property cost my client $15,000 (non-refundable monies, which are applied to the purchase price, at closing). His lease payment was $3,500 per month, with a $9,000 Rent Credit (also monies which are applied to the purchase price, at closing).

The Numbers:

Purchase Strategy:	Rent-To-Own/Lease-Option
Lease Term:	6 months
Lease Payment:	$3,500/month
Security Deposit:	$5,750
Asking Price:	$669,000
Option Deposit:	$15,000 (non-refundable)
Rent Credit:	$9,000
Contract Price:	$645,000
Down Payment:	$161,250
Earnest Money Deposit:	$4,350
First Mortgage:	$483,750
Monthly Payment:	$2,206/month
Lease vs. Mortgage Savings:	$1,294/month

If rent-to-own is a new concept to you then it might seem a bit complicated, at first glance, but I assure you that all of this transpired without a hitch, and all parties walked away from the transaction happy winners.

In closing, if you truly believe that you have no other choice than to continue paying high rent and wait to purchase your first or next home then I would implore you to, at least, consider the possibility that you could be terribly wrong. And then I would challenge you to both seek out alternative solutions and speak with a competent real estate professional who knows more about nontraditional real estate financing than your average broker or agent. After all – we are NOT created equal! I sincerely hope you make 2017 the year you finally “pull the trigger."

Best Wishes.

Anthony Wheaton
BRE# 01965458
Direct: (562) 353-7101
Email: anthony@fmrealtyconsulting.com
Website: fmrealtyconsulting.com

Here They Go

We told you this is on their horizon.

 Kiss your cash, gold and your kids, if you have any, at night because after cash and gold your children just might be next.

China tries to limit capital flight. They are not alone. Earlier this year when certain American companies were intent on moving their head offices to Europe to get a better tax break on their overseas cash holdings, the politicians rolled out the epithets. These are dangerous control freak bureaucrats. If you sleep you will end up paying for it with more than your money.
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And now, as Reuters reports, it appears last Monday's attack on a Christmas market in Berlin, where 12 people were killed as a truck ploughed into a crowd, has given The European Commission just the excuse to tighten capital controls - specifically cash and precious metals - into and out of Europe.

It is part of an EU "action plan against terrorist financing" unveiled after the bombings and shootings in Paris in November 2015.

Under the new proposals, customs officials in European Union states can step up checks on cash and prepaid payment cards sent by post or in freight shipments.

Authorities will also be able to seize cash or precious metals carried by suspect individuals entering the EU.

People carrying more than 10,000 euros (8,413.56 pounds) in cash already have to declare this at customs when entering the EU. The new rules would allow authorities to seize money below that threshold "where there are suspicions of criminal activity," the EU executive commission said in a note.

EU officials said some of the recent attacks in Europe were carried out with limited funds, sometimes sent from outside the EU by criminal networks.

The Commission is also considering whether to set up an EU-focussed "terrorist finance tracking programme" along the lines of the U.S.-EU TFTP, which has long been opposed by EU lawmakers and privacy campaigners because it allows widespread checks on consumers' bank transfers.

The plan complements Commission proposals after the Paris attacks to tighten controls on virtual currencies such as bitcoin, and prepaid cards, which French authorities said were used to fund the bombings.

EU states backed these proposals on Tuesday. Under the deal, which still needs European Parliament approval, holders of prepaid cards would have to show some form of identity when they make payments of 150 euros or more.

But it gets better...

The Commission is also proposing common rules for the 28 EU countries on freezing "terrorists' financial resources" and on confiscating assets even from those thought to be connected to criminals.

So - cash, bitcoin, precious metals, and prepaid cards over $150 are all instruments of the "terrorists" and are now open to confiscation if you are a suspicious person... which, by their rhetoric, you are if you actually hold any of these assets.
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There answer is always the same, more tracking of the many to catch the few. Once it was $10,000. Now it's $150.

blacklistednews.com/Europe_Proposes_Confiscating_Gold_In_Crackdown_On Terrorist_Financing.

Quite Dead

Most people understand the term oxymoron.

If you look it up in Webster's you get definitions like silent thunder and inexpensive Beverly Hills attorneys. But the real meaning pops up when you couple politicians with the word urgency. Here's a quote from a well known international politician who's up for re-election next year.

Responding to rising criticism of her immigration policies after another terrorist killed innocent people, German Chancellor Angela Merkel noted:

"The Amiri case raises a series of questions, not just about the deed itself, but also about the time since he came to Germany. We will now examine with urgency to what degree state practices must be changed."

For those innocents and their loved ones it was a catastrophic event. No other definition need apply. Despite the well-plotted attempts by elites and MSM to defang so-called populism, it should be pushed even harder. Local control is just one of the appropriate answers. And that begins with it your abode and your personal being and safety. Not to mention your right to both.

Politicians usually travel with a wealth of security. But even that isn't guaranteed as in the case of the Russian ambassador to Turkey. Was that just owing to a lax of security or a purposeful lax of security? It's getting less hard to get your mind around the idea that your government would sacrifice innocents to push a policy. Understand that and you'll understand why populism is such a threat. You will also understand the absence of those WMDs.

In a feeble attempt to sooth frayed nerves, German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere, unwittingly or no, gave a vote of confidence for the death penalty when he said: "I am very relieved that there is no more danger stemming from this perpetrator." The more this tragedy unfolds the more it becomes clear. Merkel is just another inept politician trying to cover up her ineptitude. But ineptitude and political hemlock are the same. Both can get you quite dead.

In America it's the neocons and the stalwarts of these two archaic, impotent political parties.

Not So Deftly Over Regulated

It's not as if investors couldn't see this coming.

The U.S. dollar's been on the rise for a while now, recently hitting a 14-year high after the recent not-my-president's selection crybaby losers including apparently those members of New York's dancing Rockettes. Maybe the unemployment rate there will jump?

Supposedly, higher interest rates and the arrival of that elusive critter, inflation, that the Janet Yellen's data-driven Fed searched so long and so fervently for lend to a stronger currency. Supposedly too both are fillips for better times. In trite, shopworn Keynesian vernacular that translated into one of the longest, phoniest economic memes, consumers will do their part and create more debt by pushing up retail sales and the economy will magically re-right itself. Those damn intractable consumers. Most of them probably reside in flyover territory.

If cheaper prices are reportedly good for loony shoppers why are they not good at least in part for domestic manufacturers who use imported stuff to make their products? Are they loony, too? So the caterwauling over a rising buck has cranked up, much of it directed at the president elect's expected programs. The man hasn't even take his oath of office yet and you have one of the worst occupants of the White House in this nation's relatively young existence hopefully riding into historical oblivion in a fortnight or so and the hand wringing is already over the top.

Trump and his outlook has been called delusional, among some other well-plotted epithets. But the current resident White House golfer thinks he would have scored a third term if election laws were different. Some elected officials apparently continue to do drugs while in office. Some election laws need to be changed, but the College of Electoral votes isn't one of them. Banning any and all prospective presidential candidates from playing golf while in office, however, is one sorely needed.

The number one deterrent to homegrown manufacturing jobs is over regulation not a strong dollar. Now for those economic geniuses from Ivy League Land who love to recite their favorite con--"It's oversimplified, too small or simple to be significant."--we will repeat that point. The real bogeyman is over regulation not a strong currency. These are people who mostly in their careers never wrote a simple, straight forward declarative sentence like: "Billy hit a home run. He deftly touched all the bases on his way home." The next time an econometric-model trained economist does anything deftly will be the first time.

Color consumer confidence among the signs that things are looking up. As the Wall Street Journal  today reports: "Americans grew more optimistic about the economy in December, a sign that the postelection bump in confidence continues. The Conference Board said Tuesday its index of consumer confidence rose to 113.7 in December up from a revised 109.4 in November. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected the index to rise to 109.8 in December. The December reading was the highest since August 2001."

So as the New Year and a new president looms things are getting muddier and muddier. Make that your investment theme for 2017 and you should do just fine.

Overnight

The dollar gained back some ground overnight despite many markets Monday were closed for the season holiday.

A weaker yen lifted theNikkei 225 0.3% while the Shanghai Conmposite fell 0.2%, the Hang Send dropped 0.3% and the MSCI index of Asian-Pacific shares exclusive Japan remained flat. Markets in Hong Kong,Australia and New Zealand were closed. The Kospi was up 0.18%.

Gold, according to the Wall Street Journal, edged slightly higher. 0301 

Spot gold prices are slightly higher in Asia hours, with trading choppy and lacking conviction amid no clear drivers in the holiday season. Gold likely will trade in a narrow band this week, barring no major unexpected international developments. “Definitely when people come back, they will reposition themselves,” says Helen Lau of Argonaut. Ms. Lau expects returning traders considering gold bets will look at such factors as U.S. dollar strength and macroeconomic data signaling the health of the U.S. economy, terrorism, and tensions between China and the U.S. Spot gold prices are last up US$2.95, trading at $1,136.12/oz.

Overnight

The Nikkei benchmark is up 2% this year, but trading  was thin Monday around Asia as the Nikkei 225 fell 0.2% to 19,395.99 in early trading after the market in Japan was closed on Friday as thin trading around the Christmas holiday held sway with some markets in the regions still closed.

Japanese stocks are expected to close out the year in positive territory for 2016 even as volume remains thin,some analysts have noted.In other markets the Shanghai Composite index was off 1%; the Kospi up[ 0.01%; and Taiwan's market was higher by 0.2%. The Wall Street Journal reported: Asian shares were a mixed bag on Monday as trading volumes were thin because of the Christmas holidays, with some major markets in the region still closed.. Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong were closed.

As attention shifts to the U.S. with its new administration set to takeover in early January and the threat of a rising dollar,inflation and rising interest rates investor confidence has picked up in recent weeks. Reurers noted such overnight,saying: Japanese equity markets have surged in the four years since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office, with the Nikkei hitting an almost two-decade high in June 2015, on hopes his Abenomics policies of monetary stimulus, fiscal expansion and structural reforms would end decades of deflation and stagnation. Japanese equities have been underpinned by the yen's weakness against the dollar on expectations that the incoming administration would boost economic growth and inflation via increased infrastructure spending, tax cuts and reduced regulation.

After a long year of expected interest rates hikes the Fed has delivered just one as it has repeatedly overestimated the strength of the U.S. economy in the eyes of many. Fed Chair Janet Yellen at her last public economic powwow noted that three rate hikes are in store for 2017. Given that we now know most of the jobs the Obama administration created were part-timers with few or no benefits that might be a stretch, to say the least. Art for art's sake is one thing, but normalizing the economy just to be normalizing it is another. Yellen also has lame duck written all over her, so geopolitics might prove surprising in the new year. And so might the prices of gold and oil.