Whether the Fed will choose to ignore what has been a spate of if not all bad certainly mediocre at best news on the global economic front in making its next interest rate decision remains to be seen. Our guess is they've misplayed their hand and now feel compelled to hike rates sooner than later.
They have reached a damned if you do and damned it you don't point largely of their own making. Either way they will get a reaction, possibly a market selloff whatever they do since if they sit tight after all their recent jawboning it will fire further questions about indecisiveness and incompetence.
Their credibility despite the naysayers is increasingly at stake.
Activity levels across factories the world over stalled last month, according to the latest JP Morgan-Markit global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) released on Wednesday.
The PMI came in at 50.0, down from 50.1 in April, continuing the underwhelming start to the year for the global manufacturing sector.
Like PMI readings for individual nations, the survey measures changes in activity levels from one month to the next, with a reading of 50 signaling that activity levels neither expanded nor contracted during any given month.
It takes in responses from over 10,000 firms from 30 individual nations, providing the closest thing to a comprehensive report card for the global manufacturing sector as one can get.
And based on the tepid reading for May, the news on that front is not good.
JP Morgan
Markit notes that levels of expansion slowed in the Eurozone and US, the latter at the slowest pace since October 2009, while activity levels in Asia and South America continued to contract.
“The two largest Asian manufacturing economies – China and Japan – both contracted in May. PMI readings indicated that rates of decline were the sharpest since February 2016 and January 2013 respectively,” said Markit.
“The Brazil PMI sank to its weakest level in over seven years, placing it at the bottom of the global rankings.”
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