Friday, June 24, 2016

If You're Smart

If you're smart you will use this Brexit turmoil to pick up some cheap assets, globally, but you need to do your homework.

 One hint is those assets that went the opposite direction of gold, for example. Panic is panic and the species still known as Homo sapiens just can't help it. They're wired that way. A stronger dollar will temporarily dent U.S. multinationals meanwhile upping the pain for commodity-based emerging markets. That could increase the speed of the BRICs coming up with an alternative to the dollar for international trade down the road.

The pundits will, as is their weakness, put too much attention on analyzing the micro. To make money that's a loser's game. Great for the ego, meaningless for your bottom line. There is always fallout. The Swiss franc that many believe was overvalued anyway is now more overvalued. The yen follows the trade winds, like any good clipper ship of days gone long ago.

The currency market as has been already demonstrated will be where a lot of the action happens. Japanese Prime Minister Abe's got more problems now than he thought he had. Eurosceptics from France to the Netherlands to Sweden are demanding their own referendum. Even Scotland's call for one to leave the UK--something they should've done the first time around minus all the heavyweight elitist scaremongering--is an indirect blow to the EU. It's part of a trend and trends as they gather momentum scare the status quo. You got one, we want one too.

A recent pole--if anyone can trust those mostly MSM manipulated jokes--showed French voters more skeptical about the EU than British voters. That should make Germany happy.  A hidden theme here is one MSM and the elites always tried to hide: You're on your own and you should be. Take advantage of the freedom.

Here are a couple of post-Brexit quotes from the Washington Post, just what one would expect from that corner. As is their reputation, they have it all wrong. The open borders didn't fail simply because it was unpopular it failed because it didn't create the big lie the Post wants you to believe. Nor was the single market trading scheme near what these folks claim. There's another question here. Whatever so-called success single bloc trade enjoyed was enjoyed by whom?

In an ideal world, the Brexit shock would galvanize Europe into a muscular response. To borrow an analogy from the 2008 financial crisis, if Thursday’s vote was something of a “Lehman moment,” then we should all wish for the next steps to resemble the fast rescue of AIG and the passing of the TARP bailout plan — in other words, a determined commitment that no more dominoes should fall. But Europe’s problems are too deep, and its leadership too fragmented, for this vigorous response to appear probable.
The project of European integration can be thought of as three experiments in the management of globalization. The first is a triumph: The single market for trade in goods and services spurs competition and efficiencies in a bloc of more than 500 million people. The second experiment is a mixed story: The commitment to free movement for students, workers and retirees across 28 countries has expanded individual freedom and prosperity but is politically unpopular. Meanwhile Europe’s third experiment is a disaster. The creation of the euro, the shared currency now used by 19 countries, was quite simply a bridge too far.

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