We all pay a price for what we are. And in the world of investing for perma-bears things are no different.
Albert Edwards, the in-house perma-bear at the big French bank Societe Generale, is well-known for his views in his weekly commentaries. His latest is no exception, according to Business Insider.
"The key to the Ice Age thesis is to sound CONDITION RED ALERT as each recession approaches, because the equity outcome then always proves much worse than anyone expects due to the additional phase of secular de-rating," the strategist wrote in a note to clients Friday.
Based on Edwards' reading of the latest data out of the US, it appears that it is time to sound the alarm. Here's Edwards (emphasis added):
In the aftermath of the latest, weaker than expected, nonfarm payroll data, economists are certainly more worried. The excellent folks at Advisor Perspectives highlight the Fed’s Labour Market Conditions Index as suggesting a recession is imminent (the cumulative peak is an average of 9 months ahead of the start of recession and we are now four months beyond a peak. For investors who think copper still has some predictive power, its recent move is disturbing.
As we said: We all pay a price for what we are. Here's Edwards' own words.
"We remain at the bearish extreme of the market," he wrote.
"It is not a pleasant place. It is cold, dark, and damp. People either don'’t speak to you or send you abusive emails. Members of your own family pretend not to know you. Actually, I made that last bit up."
Here's a link to the rest of the article. It's hard to be humble when you're perfect in every way go the words of an old song almost too long ago to remember. And it's even harder to be a party-pooper even when one is needed.
businessinsider.com/condition-red-alert-recession-is-imminent-2016-6.
Albert Edwards, the in-house perma-bear at the big French bank Societe Generale, is well-known for his views in his weekly commentaries. His latest is no exception, according to Business Insider.
"The key to the Ice Age thesis is to sound CONDITION RED ALERT as each recession approaches, because the equity outcome then always proves much worse than anyone expects due to the additional phase of secular de-rating," the strategist wrote in a note to clients Friday.
Based on Edwards' reading of the latest data out of the US, it appears that it is time to sound the alarm. Here's Edwards (emphasis added):
In the aftermath of the latest, weaker than expected, nonfarm payroll data, economists are certainly more worried. The excellent folks at Advisor Perspectives highlight the Fed’s Labour Market Conditions Index as suggesting a recession is imminent (the cumulative peak is an average of 9 months ahead of the start of recession and we are now four months beyond a peak. For investors who think copper still has some predictive power, its recent move is disturbing.
As we said: We all pay a price for what we are. Here's Edwards' own words.
"We remain at the bearish extreme of the market," he wrote.
"It is not a pleasant place. It is cold, dark, and damp. People either don'’t speak to you or send you abusive emails. Members of your own family pretend not to know you. Actually, I made that last bit up."
Here's a link to the rest of the article. It's hard to be humble when you're perfect in every way go the words of an old song almost too long ago to remember. And it's even harder to be a party-pooper even when one is needed.
businessinsider.com/condition-red-alert-recession-is-imminent-2016-6.
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