Politics Is All

 
Hoaxes are like theories. there are two kinds--those that have been disproved and those waiting to be disproved. In some cases the waiting can get rather long in the truth.

There's no shortage of hoaxes making the rounds today. climate change, the lone wolf theory. One of the most prominent and longer standing ones is the Federal Reserve (aka central bankers) know what they're doing. Buried within that is a subset one, that the Fed doesn't have a political agenda. It does.

In the eyes of many, Americans now face two evils running for the White House. Another recently was forced out. One represents the unknown, the uncertainty that change brings. The other is a known quantity yet no less disturbing, more of the same with the possibility, like a huge out-of-control blob, expanding evil even further.

The Yellen-led Fed disdains uncertainty. Volatility is Fed speak for the same. Proof positive is its now exposed, well-documented fence straddling posture. Like her predecessor both are card carrying members. Neither ever met a decision that didn't deserve a good straddle. It's right up there on page two of the How To Be A Good Bureaucrat For Dummies manual.

There's a principle that the closer you observe something the more it changes. Another paradox. In  his new book, The Great Invention, Ehsan Masood, seems to argue, and this is our interpretation, the Fed tries by focusing on GDP growth, to micromanage what can't be micromanaged. Controlling what you measure then often distorts your outcome.

One of the Darth Vaders is a well-known business person. To many that's in itself scary enough. The other is a well known cattle trader. The path of least resistance for the Fed is the cattle trader. It's the easiest fence to straddle. So don't expect any interest rate hikes until after Inauguration Day, if even then. Politics is all and all is politics.