If you've been following our posts--and we don't blame you if you haven't, since this is not, just so you'll know, a backslapping thing, just our humble observations, we've been suggesting the Fed is behind the curve not in front of it for a while now.
Though it still remains to be witnessed, there's more than a modicum of data to suggest the economy is up and running, that is, pretty close to full speed ahead, new neutral or no new neutral. As we've said before usually these things are recognized only in retrospect as in "When did that happen?" or "Where in the hell did that come from?"
And by the way, just in case Pimco Bill Gross is listening and we're reasonably sure he ain't, we're not trademarking any of this nor are we as economist Paul (Paul is back!) McCulley claiming we're rereading cover to cover Keynes' General Theory every Xmas. If you want to interrogate your enemies, find out quickly all their darkest secrets, forget about water boarding, just threaten them with that.
Most of us being the humans we are look only for stuff that will corroborate our biases. While we do that too with the best of them, what we also seek out is opinions from those who feel strongly the other way. Now we didn't say we like it. After all, we're as flecked and flawed as the next guy.
But over time we've learned a thing or three from doing this that helps sift through much of the popular media noise. And it's rampant. With that said here's an interesting what we call decide-for-yourself read. Read it and let is know what you decide.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chris-rupkey-on-the-economy-2014-6?utm_
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