Monday, June 23, 2014

THE EU POLITICAL CIRCUS





They were once allies through two world wars.

Now there's disagreement about who should be anointed the next European Commission president. Disagreements over fiscal probity will do that. This is not a World Cup soccer match albeit it could be.

Italy's newly elected Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is trying to kick a goal for what one scribe has called "a fundamental rethink of fiscal rules in the eurozone." We don't know about you but that sounds like something that just rolled off the lips of Argentina's president, Cristina Fernandez.

On the other side, staunchly defending her goal of financial rectitude, is Germany's Angela Merkel. What's at stake here is something most governments don't like, fiscal responsibility. We said it before and we'll repeat it. Fiscal probity is not in the DNA of most governments. And if history is any guide never will be.

Renzi's pushing what some are calling his unilateral attempt to dilute what has already been diluted by half with the recent bailouts of Greece, Portugal and the rest of the usual suspects. He wants  more lax official fiscal rules, a jointly funded investment program and a change in the binding debt-reduction rule.

In short, he wants to put everyone on the hook for any bailouts, buy more time for members to meet their debt-reduction quotas and water down what has already been watered down, the original rules of the game. Sounds entirely reasonable for nearly everyone unless you're a German or anyone who believes people and countries ought to exist within their means.

For all of Renzi's new-kid-on-the-block enthusiasm, the term credibility seems to be miraculously absent from his lexicon. There are only a few ways to get investors to cough up capital for your sovereign debt. Create what we now have, a yield-starved environment, make the yield so juicy investors will swallow hard and take the plunge anyway or provide a solid, safe haven devoid of Mr. Renzi's political hijinks.

For now, as they say, the circus must go on.                                                          

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