Sunday, February 14, 2016

OVERNIGHT


Just when it looks like things can't get worse, you know the next part.

That's what the recently released GDP numbers from Japan are saying as the economy shrunk.
At an annualized rate of 1.4 percent in the 4Q versus the expected number of a 1.2 percent decline as consumer spending and exports weakened add more concern to an already worrisome situation.

The decline matched that of the 2Q of last year. With the 2Q and 4Q declines sandwiched around the revised positive 3Q results of 1.3 percent, it hardly the best of news. It was the fourth contraction in seven quarters. The term stagnation no doubt will be on investor minds this week, given the yen's increasing strength and it's impact on exports.

This brings up the possibility of further monetary action by the BOJ to wrest the economy from the jaws of an even deeper downturn that will affect stock prices and ramp up volatility, hardly what weary investors want. Look, too, for the concept of economic bullets to become more in the media limelight.

"It's a natter of time before the BOJ and the government will take additional stimulus measures," one observer was quoted as saying.

Last year the economy grew 0.4 percent as as export bolster by what was then a weaker yen helped cap the damage of 1.2 percent drop in private consumer spending. A 2014 increase in sales taxes hasn't proved helpful, either, and flat to declining wages also took their toll.

With Wall Street closed Monday for President's Day and Chinese investors returning to the fray after the long Lunar Holiday, Tuesday should be even more intriguing.


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