Monday, February 22, 2016

ECONOMIC HOGWASH


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 How to you recognize economic hogwash when you see it?

Simple. Read more articles like this one from Business Insider.

Global economic growth is sluggish, to say the least.
The low-growth environment the world seems to be trapped in, said Raman Srivastava, Standish Mellon Asset Management's co-deputy chief investment officer and managing director of global fixed income, is probably not going to change anytime soon.
There is, however, one thing that could truly kickstart the global economy: fiscal stimulus.
The issue, Srivastava said, is that no country wants to do it.
"What needs to happen is a coordinated fiscal response on a global scale in order to spur demand," Srivastava told Business Insider. "The problem is there isn't a will to do it, which is why we don't think [growth] rates or inflation is going anywhere."
According to Srivastava, central banks have attempted to kickstart growth with ever-lower (and now negative) interest rates and asset buying programs. But at this point those moves are no longer effective.
"The first venture into things like [quantitative easing] drew a powerful response from markets," said Srivastava. "So now there is no real reaction anymore. The markets is basically saying there is not much more they can do. Further rate cuts aren't going to help, more fiscal stimulus is."
In this scenario the stimulus would be a large infusion of cash from the government in the form of infrastructure development, public employment, and so on. This would drive employment, wage growth, and would make up for the demand gap in private sector expenditures.
The biggest thing standing in the way of this plan, said Srivastava, is politics.
According to Srivastava there just isn't an appetite for a large, debt-financed stimulus package on a global scale, especially in the US.
"Look at the US, we're in the middle of an election year, there's not going to be an announcement of a giant stimulus package in this environment," said Srivastava. "We would really need something economically dramatic to happen before stimulus became possible."
 The U.S. and most other developed countries, not to mention developing ones, is already up to its ear lobes in debt. Politicians and bureaucrats around the globe have a well deserved reputation that is now lower than a fat duck's belly. There was a time when used car sales people had a lower reputation than these so-called public servants. The difference here is used car sales people never boasted having any claims to public service. There's was all personal to begin with.
Just the opposite is needed: cut taxes and regulations, unleash the individual business entrepreneur and create real jobs. Few if any of the excesses have been purged out of  over-bloated, global-govern-dependent systems just aching to find an ideal spot to go flip, fly and flop.
Government bail-ins and government-bailouts, phony accounting and conjured M&A activities, to name just a few, all mask the one term that is more unwelcome and rivals the phony concerns currently about the Zika virus--truth.

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