Sunday, November 9, 2014

USE YOUR OWN

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 "It's turning into a stampede away from fuel-efficiency,"  noted the WSJ quoting in today's paper Mike Jackson, the chief of AutoNation, the numbero uno auto chain dealer in the U. S.

In case one doesn't recognize it, that's just one impact of lower energy prices, one that some environmentalists might not like very much.

Most recognize that airlines, auto manufacturers, even corn farmers among others benefit from lower energy prices. In the auto business it makes dealers happy because they will sell more utility vehicles and big trucks like the Ford F 150 since profit margins are greater on these big boys than it is on smaller vehicles that reportedly hold down green-house emissions.

There's been a lot of hoopla lately about lower energy prices and how it puts more money in consumer pockets. In a consumer based economy like America's that an important yard stick. And this week several retailers are reporting  earnings.

Some say, notwithstanding wages, the consumer is the last leg needed to push the U.S. economy where all this easy money our beloved friends at the Fed have been printing for the past several years, full recovery.

Lower oil prices hit big oil first. But big oil like most smart people alter their behavior when that happens.They start to cut costs. That excludes most governments and all those haters of austerity out there.

Those cuts in capex sooner or later have a way of trickling into the economy. Money saved there can wind up somewhere else like in increased dividends. We recently alluded to this in our post, http://financialspuds.blogspot.com/2014/10/like-good-motorist., when we mentioned British Petroleum (BP) which recently hiked its dividend more than 5 percent.

And as an aside, when you look at BP and it's fundamentals which are far lower than the other oil companies of it size, sure there's still some legal drag, it could easily be a takeover candidate in a low energy price scenario.

That may be a mouthful, and we're not predicting it, but stranger things have happened.

By some reports auto dealers have tons of fuel efficient cars, especially the smaller versions, sitting in dusty inventories on their lots. Lower gas prices bring out the gas-guzzling crowds who love their trucks and SUVs. That should tell you something about human nature.

So if you ever want to own one of those gas-saving smaller vehicles, you might want to buy one now while energy prices are falling. Remember bond yields compete with dividends The longer bond yields stay low the more attractive higher dividends appeal to the yield starved.

Falling energy prices have their own deflationary effect. So besides one of those gas-saving little ditties you might also want to pick up some energy stocks on the cheap where the prospect for higher dividends is most likely a no brainer.









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